2025-26 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 2.0

[twix2500]

Before Herro rejoined the team, the Heat had an Identity and was building on that I'D. What is the Heat's I'D since Herro's return?

Before Herro
116.0 OffRtg, 110.6 DefRtg

With Herro
111.3 OffRtg, 113.6 DefRtg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Enso]

Before Herro rejoined the team, the Heat had an Identity and was building on that I'D. What is the Heat's I'D since Herro's return?

Before Herro
116.0 OffRtg, 110.6 DefRtg

With Herro
111.3 OffRtg, 113.6 DefRtg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

It’s identity is a team that needs to make a trade now

[Vertical Limit]

Before Herro rejoined the team, the Heat had an Identity and was building on that I'D. What is the Heat's I'D since Herro's return?

Before Herro
116.0 OffRtg, 110.6 DefRtg

With Herro
111.3 OffRtg, 113.6 DefRtg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

It’s identity is a team that needs to make a trade now

Now is the time to do it… while the stock on some of these players are up.. not 2026 offseason when this exact roster with no changes made gets absolutely ravaged in the first round like they did against the cavs

The front office is filled with very smart people, they know the before and after, the cause and effect of Herro since rejoining. They are aware of the problem.. and even with that, theyll be too stubborn to move him, they want to so badly try to get a superstar for scraps while keeping Herro Powell JJJ Ware. Hey how about rozier and fontewhateverthef and firsts for giannis??

Even the fans have bought into this delusional type of deal making.

A guy like Herro wouldve been dealt without hesitation for a star back in 2004 and back in 2009.. weve changed our identity in the front office… no balls

[HeatingUp3]

Why we play the loser of the NBA cup querter finals i don't get it. Can we still compete?

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[greg4012]

Before Herro rejoined the team, the Heat had an Identity and was building on that I'D. What is the Heat's I'D since Herro's return?

Before Herro
116.0 OffRtg, 110.6 DefRtg

With Herro
111.3 OffRtg, 113.6 DefRtg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Definitely has been a shift. I think it has more to do with lack of any rotation consistency overall with A LOT of players being in and out of lineups. The biggest drags have been shift from hot 3pt shooting to cooling down, bench production dropping off a cliff, and defense overall lapsing.

Miami has played 8 games since Herro returned. Herro played in 6 of them.

Games without Herro during this stretch (2 games)

106.9 ORTG; 115.3 DRTG

Games with Herro during this stretch (6 games)

112.6 ORTG; 113 DRTG

Over that stretch of 8 games, only Bam, Ware (diminished role) and Dru Smith have been available for all 8 games.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[Tim_Hardawayy]

Before Herro rejoined the team, the Heat had an Identity and was building on that I'D. What is the Heat's I'D since Herro's return?

Before Herro
116.0 OffRtg, 110.6 DefRtg

With Herro
111.3 OffRtg, 113.6 DefRtg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Said it already, but what's more likely: That this was actually a 55 win team and Herro's been sabotaging them the whole time, or that they had a good stretch aided by a gimmick offense nobody was prepared for to start the season?

I actually would prefer if it was the former, because then the solution is simple, just trade Herro for a bag of chips and watch us contend and STILL have pieces we could trade for an upgrade. I don't think its that simple and I think people are setting themselves up for disappointment and resentment if they hold the team to that standard.

But people like to think heuristically, and its simpler to just say "Good without Herro, bad with" than to consider other variables.

EDIT: Once again greg bringing the numbers to back up what I'm saying.

Spoiler:

Before Herro rejoined the team, the Heat had an Identity and was building on that I'D. What is the Heat's I'D since Herro's return?

Before Herro
116.0 OffRtg, 110.6 DefRtg

With Herro
111.3 OffRtg, 113.6 DefRtg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Definitely has been a shift. I think it has more to do with lack of any rotation consistency overall with A LOT of players being in and out of lineups. The biggest drags have been shift from hot 3pt shooting to cooling down, bench production dropping off a cliff, and defense overall lapsing.

Miami has played 8 games since Herro returned. Herro played in 6 of them.

Games without Herro during this stretch (2 games)

106.9 ORTG; 115.3 DRTG

Games with Herro during this stretch (6 games)

112.6 ORTG; 113 DRTG

Over that stretch of 8 games, only Bam, Ware (diminished role) and Dru Smith have been available for all 8 games.

Its a lot more complicated than, Herro bad. And I think just like teams can have stretches where they play poorly and underperform, they can also play above their heads, and at some point we might have to accept that explains a portion of the early stretch of the season. That said, I do think there's tweaks that can be made to get us back at least closer to that level of play. But I don't think its as simple as "Herro ruined it".

[SerialChiller]

With all the talk about Herro lately I figured I'd run through my general stance when it comes to him with some rapid fire takes...


Is Herro a good player?
Yes, he has a very good offensive skillset. His elite shooting (which provides valuable spacing) and floater game can't be ignored and he's made leaps when it comes to playmaking, finishing through contact inside, and playing off ball some as well. He's also come up big in the clutch numerous times for us although mostly in the regular season to be fair. His high confidence level allows him to do that and that's a great trait that can't really be taught. However it also sometimes leads to poor shots or decisions in big moments. He's still just 25 so it's hard to fault him too much in those instances from the past as he was such a young player and with Butler here it's not like he was getting all the experience as that closing guy right away. It's all part of the learning process.


Is he a winning player?
So far I'd have to say probably not. Not that he necessarily can't be, but he needs to prove it first and other than in the bubble somewhat, he just hasn't managed to show it definitively thus far. I think he kind of has to be put in the right situation in order to be one and that Spo's asked too much of him when it comes to ball handling and playmaking at times due to the roster. And that can be a little tricky because he's not great enough to be a team's centerpiece that everything is built around. This is in large part due to his lack of durability and also what leads to this next question...


Does he have flaws?
Of course like any player ever. But his main flaw is pretty glaring. Being so weak defensively that he is hunted is a backbreaker late in games when things slow down and in the playoffs when teams gameplan to relentlessly do so. And Spo's switch everything defense certainly does him or the team no favors here as it allows opponents to successfully find that matchup basically whenever they want. Offensively he has become quite well rounded but I'd still like to see him manage to get to the FT line more.


What role is best for him?
Honestly ideally he'd be an amazing 6th man (still playing starters minutes) with this current mix but he has outgrown that obviously and deserves to be a starter. And I don't fault him for wanting to be that. Few players would do what Ginobili did for the Spurs. It really depends on who he's surrounded with, the best case would be surrounding him with as many defenders as possible and playing big to protect the paint behind him and have a lob threat for him on offense. And best case would be along with a true PG so that he doesn't have to be the main playmaker and ball handler. I think he could be a number 2 scorer and playmaker on a contender that has the pieces to help cover his flaws, providing he can stay on the court.

For instance it's a shame he wasn't ready in time to fit Butler's timeline and of course ran into injuries. He was still just too young. But if you dropped a healthy last year's Tyler on those Butler finals Heat squads he could of provided that additional scorer that the team sorely lacked and Butler and Bam badly needed. I think the defense was good enough back then to make it work quite well. That would of really helped especially once Dragic was done and traded for Lowry.


Should he be traded?
I'm definitely not someone just looking to ship him out for nothing. He should not be traded just to trade him (I'm not a get him off the team guy). But I do think that now with Powell here, he's the odd man out and the guy that has to be moved if the right deal presents itself. It does feel like it is becoming inevitable at some point. His contract helps make the money work for a star and he has more value then Powell due to his age at least to a non contending rebuilding team trading a star. Therefore he is our most movable piece of value along with Ware in a trade. But it should really only happen for a true number 1 guy, which is what I think we're all hoping (I'm not overly optimistic though to be honest) we can somehow pull off. I do think trading him before we end up extending him is the way to go, but it has to be the right trade.


Is the Heat's recent decline in play his fault?
No it's not, the team was always going to have to adjust some and develop chemistry with his return and I don't think anyone reasonable was expecting that to go seamlessly right away. I put most of the blame here on Spo for wack rotations and especially for not even trying the team's clear cut best lineup yet with him at PG along with Norm, Wiggins, Bam, and Ware. Plus it's not his fault either that we have poor roster construction with so many wings, basically picked up a duplicate player in Powell (when it comes to position/role/mentality/archetype/etc), and seriously lack bigs.


Overall:
I think his game has certainly improved and that he's shown a lot of growth maturity wise which was especially noticeable last year right from the start out of camp even. All in all I do like Tyler and hope he can stay on the floor and continue to do well. I understand that he can only work with the athleticism/wingspan/etc that he was given and that he just doesn't possess the tools needed to be a good NBA defender. But as long as he at least gives effort out there on that end and takes pride in doing what he can that's all we can ask. I do think he has improved a little on that end when it comes to defending off ball with reading passing lanes and such.

So basically in summary I guess, I am wary of extending him to a max and don't exactly love his fit with what we have, but also acknowledge that he has value and don't think we should panic and rush to trade him either. If nothing good comes along deal wise hopefully Spo will see the light at some point and give our top 5 guys a chance to start together and develop chemistry before the play-in/playoffs and then we can go from there in the offseason.

[HeatFanLifer]

I am good with trading Herro. I don’t think he brings much to the table that is different than other players. He had an opportunity to become a playmaker, but I am just seeing iso play after iso play and he’s not good enough to put this team on his back and win enough games that matter with his iso offense. Do I think he sucks? No. But if the Heat were to say “we traded Herro and Bish for a borderline all star player” I would say Bish will be missed.

[Vertical Limit]

He is the ultimate ballstopper.. and before he srrived, we were 8 man deep of off the ball chemistry which is what made the offense work..

Ive said it so many times, he is a high volume iso player.. he does not know how to be a threat off the ball. He needs the ball on his hands.. and our pace goes down when it goes through him. No one is scared of him off the ball.. hes definitely not Curry, Booker, or even Klay today off the ball.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

The Herro talk is pointless, HES GONE!!!! Let’s get this done Pat, we have far better assets than the Knicks

[Wiltside]

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The Herro talk is pointless, HES GONE!!!! Let’s get this done Pat, we have far better assets than the Knicks

Jungle drums are beating. Can’t whiff on this again. We held back on the KD talks for exactly this moment. Need to execute.

[SerialChiller]

I am good with trading Herro. I don’t think he brings much to the table that is different than other players. He had an opportunity to become a playmaker, but I am just seeing iso play after iso play and he’s not good enough to put this team on his back and win enough games that matter with his iso offense. Do I think he sucks? No. But if the Heat were to say “we traded Herro and Bish for a borderline all star player” I would say Bish will be missed.

nooooo not Bish!

[twix2500]

Before Herro rejoined the team, the Heat had an Identity and was building on that I'D. What is the Heat's I'D since Herro's return?

Before Herro
116.0 OffRtg, 110.6 DefRtg

With Herro
111.3 OffRtg, 113.6 DefRtg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Significant Stat

Before Herro's Return
Pts off Turnovers per game = 21.8 pts per game
Fastbreak Points per game = 19.1 pts per game

After Herro's Return
Pts off Turnovers per game = 15.6 pts per game
Fastbreak Points per game = 17 pts per game

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

The Herro talk is pointless, HES GONE!!!! Let’s get this done Pat, we have far better assets than the Knicks

Jungle drums are beating. Can’t whiff on this again. We held back on the KD talks for exactly this moment. Need to execute.

I’m getting delusional, it’s happening again!!!!

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

[greg4012]

With all the talk about Herro lately I figured I'd run through my general stance when it comes to him with some rapid fire takes...


Is Herro a good player?
Yes, he has a very good offensive skillset. His elite shooting (which provides valuable spacing) and floater game can't be ignored and he's made leaps when it comes to playmaking, finishing through contact inside, and playing off ball some as well. He's also come up big in the clutch numerous times for us although mostly in the regular season to be fair. His high confidence level allows him to do that and that's a great trait that can't really be taught. However it also sometimes leads to poor shots or decisions in big moments. He's still just 25 so it's hard to fault him too much in those instances from the past as he was such a young player and with Butler here it's not like he was getting all the experience as that closing guy right away. It's all part of the learning process.


Is he a winning player?
So far I'd have to say probably not. Not that he necessarily can't be, but he needs to prove it first and other than in the bubble somewhat, he just hasn't managed to show it definitively thus far. I think he kind of has to be put in the right situation in order to be one and that Spo's asked too much of him when it comes to ball handling and playmaking at times due to the roster. And that can be a little tricky because he's not great enough to be a team's centerpiece that everything is built around. This is in large part due to his lack of durability and also what leads to this next question...


Does he have flaws?
Of course like any player ever. But his main flaw is pretty glaring. Being so weak defensively that he is hunted is a backbreaker late in games when things slow down and in the playoffs when teams gameplan to relentlessly do so. And Spo's switch everything defense certainly does him or the team no favors here as it allows opponents to successfully find that matchup basically whenever they want. Offensively he has become quite well rounded but I'd still like to see him manage to get to the FT line more.


What role is best for him?
Honestly ideally he'd be an amazing 6th man (still playing starters minutes) with this current mix but he has outgrown that obviously and deserves to be a starter. And I don't fault him for wanting to be that. Few players would do what Ginobili did for the Spurs. It really depends on who he's surrounded with, the best case would be surrounding him with as many defenders as possible and playing big to protect the paint behind him and have a lob threat for him on offense. And best case would be along with a true PG so that he doesn't have to be the main playmaker and ball handler. I think he could be a number 2 scorer and playmaker on a contender that has the pieces to help cover his flaws, providing he can stay on the court.

For instance it's a shame he wasn't ready in time to fit Butler's timeline and of course ran into injuries. He was still just too young. But if you dropped a healthy last year's Tyler on those Butler finals Heat squads he could of provided that additional scorer that the team sorely lacked and Butler and Bam badly needed. I think the defense was good enough back then to make it work quite well. That would of really helped especially once Dragic was done and traded for Lowry.


Should he be traded?
I'm definitely not someone just looking to ship him out for nothing. He should not be traded just to trade him (I'm not a get him off the team guy). But I do think that now with Powell here, he's the odd man out and the guy that has to be moved if the right deal presents itself. It does feel like it is becoming inevitable at some point. His contract helps make the money work for a star and he has more value then Powell due to his age at least to a non contending rebuilding team trading a star. Therefore he is our most movable piece of value along with Ware in a trade. But it should really only happen for a true number 1 guy, which is what I think we're all hoping (I'm not overly optimistic though to be honest) we can somehow pull off. I do think trading him before we end up extending him is the way to go, but it has to be the right trade.


Is the Heat's recent decline in play his fault?
No it's not, the team was always going to have to adjust some and develop chemistry with his return and I don't think anyone reasonable was expecting that to go seamlessly right away. I put most of the blame here on Spo for wack rotations and especially for not even trying the team's clear cut best lineup yet with him at PG along with Norm, Wiggins, Bam, and Ware. Plus it's not his fault either that we have poor roster construction with so many wings, basically picked up a duplicate player in Powell (when it comes to position/role/mentality/archetype/etc), and seriously lack bigs.


Overall:
I think his game has certainly improved and that he's shown a lot of growth maturity wise which was especially noticeable last year right from the start out of camp even. All in all I do like Tyler and hope he can stay on the floor and continue to do well. I understand that he can only work with the athleticism/wingspan/etc that he was given and that he just doesn't possess the tools needed to be a good NBA defender. But as long as he at least gives effort out there on that end and takes pride in doing what he can that's all we can ask. I do think he has improved a little on that end when it comes to defending off ball with reading passing lanes and such.

So basically in summary I guess, I am wary of extending him to a max and don't exactly love his fit with what we have, but also acknowledge that he has value and don't think we should panic and rush to trade him either. If nothing good comes along deal wise hopefully Spo will see the light at some point and give our top 5 guys a chance to start together and develop chemistry before the play-in/playoffs and then we can go from there in the offseason.

Well put. Agree effectively across the board.

[greg4012]

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Better than the whole league media ecosystem mobilizing against Miami's potential pursuit of a player. Still can't believe that sh*t