**NBA Draft Discussion 2025**

[MettaWorldPanda]

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Had me at 1st round, lost me at Shabazz Napier. Fool me twice.

Yeah we've struck out on two tournament darlings in Napier and Winslow

[MettaWorldPanda]

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Not staying after all

[MettaWorldPanda]

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[lastb1ckman]

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Why would they compare him to Shabazz Naiper lmao

[MettaWorldPanda]

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[MettaWorldPanda]

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[greg4012]

Now that the college basketball season is over, here's a dose of international prospects that warrant being first round picks IMO:

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I'm starting to think some of these players will surge and more than one will push for lotto consideration as the draft approaches.

Add another intl prospect to the list--Noah Penda

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[greg4012]

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These are the data points I love to see! More proof of on-ball juice

[MettaWorldPanda]

MWP's PG big board

2-3 Dylan Harper 6'6 220 Rutgers

4-8 Jeremiah Fears 6'4 182 Oklahoma

10-14 Jase Richardson 6'3 185 Michigan St

8-14 Kasparas Jakucionis 6'6 220 Illinois

12-18 Egor Demin 6'9 190 BYU

13-18 Nolan Traore 6'3 175 France

18-22 Ben Saraf 6'5 200 Israel

[DayofMourning]

MWP's PG big board

2-3 Dylan Harper 6'6 220 Rutgers

4-8 Jeremiah Fears 6'4 182 Oklahoma

10-14 Jase Richardson 6'3 185 Michigan St

8-14 Kasparas Jakucionis 6'6 220 Illinois

12-18 Egor Demin 6'9 190 BYU

13-18 Nolan Traore 6'3 175 France

18-22 Ben Saraf 6'5 200 Israel

I can ride with this valuation.

[greg4012]

MWP's PG big board

2-3 Dylan Harper 6'6 220 Rutgers

4-8 Jeremiah Fears 6'4 182 Oklahoma

10-14 Jase Richardson 6'3 185 Michigan St

8-14 Kasparas Jakucionis 6'6 220 Illinois

12-18 Egor Demin 6'9 190 BYU

13-18 Nolan Traore 6'3 175 France

18-22 Ben Saraf 6'5 200 Israel

My top 4 is similar. But, I prefer general G categorization (esp when including a prospect like Jase that is mostly identified as PG due to size rather than skillset)

Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe
Jeremiah Fears
Tre Johnson
Jase Richardson
Sergio de Larrea
Kasparas Jakucionis
Nolan Traore
Ben Saraf

I still don't see it with Egor, but I'd love to bc I love the idea of a legit 6'9 PG. Not really an advantage creator or efficient scorer at any level (does have a good rim FG% but I don't see him as a guy who creates advantage for offense by getting into the paint like Fears--2.2 unassisted FGM at rim per 40 for Demin vs 2.9 for Fears). Bad shooting metrics in midrange, deep, and FT. Uninspiring defensive versatility given his size. And on tape, I feel like his handle is pretty loose given his height--which could be a vulnerability. Sergio de Larrea is 6'6 playing notably tougher comp and puts up the same or better assist production on a per minute basis (granted more turnovers) while scoring better, better defensive metrics, and most importantly showing super encouraging shooting indicators.

[greg4012]

Coincidentally:

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[lastb1ckman]

MWP's PG big board

2-3 Dylan Harper 6'6 220 Rutgers

4-8 Jeremiah Fears 6'4 182 Oklahoma

10-14 Jase Richardson 6'3 185 Michigan St

8-14 Kasparas Jakucionis 6'6 220 Illinois

12-18 Egor Demin 6'9 190 BYU

13-18 Nolan Traore 6'3 175 France

18-22 Ben Saraf 6'5 200 Israel

My top 4 is similar. But, I prefer general G categorization (esp when including a prospect like Jase that is mostly identified as PG due to size rather than skillset)

Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe
Jeremiah Fears
Tre Johnson
Jase Richardson
Sergio de Larrea
Kasparas Jakucionis
Nolan Traore
Ben Saraf

I still don't see it with Egor, but I'd love to bc I love the idea of a legit 6'9 PG. Not really an advantage creator or efficient scorer at any level (does have a good rim FG% but I don't see him as a guy who creates advantage for offense by getting into the paint like Fears--2.2 unassisted FGM at rim per 40 for Demin vs 2.9 for Fears). Bad shooting metrics in midrange, deep, and FT. Uninspiring defensive versatility given his size. And on tape, I feel like his handle is pretty loose given his height--which could be a vulnerability. Sergio de Larrea is 6'6 playing notably tougher comp and puts up the same or better assist production on a per minute basis (granted more turnovers) while scoring better, better defensive metrics, and most importantly showing super encouraging shooting indicators.

His loose handle is my number 1 biggest concern with Egor. I don't think he can be a big PG on the league if he can't improve it a lot. He'll just get harassed and cough up the ball everytime a good perimeter defender switches onto him, especially since he can't shoot.

[lastb1ckman]

And then with Egor, if he can't be a jumbo PG, then he'll be a playmaking Joe Ingles like guy. Can he do that well? He definitely doesn't have the shooting yet.

[greg4012]

Given Miami's needs and the desire to target offensive upside as a priority this draft cycle, I've been increasingly paying attention to all flashes/indicators of a prospect proving able to CREATE offense. Miami needs more of that--most teams usually benefit from more of that. Below is a simple chart showing the percentage of FGM by a prospect that were unassisted (aka self-created), the player's assist percentage (percentage of teammate FGs a player assisted while they were on the floor), and the sum of both of those numbers--which I've deemed their OFFENSIVE ENGINE SCORE.

This only means so much in isolation, but I def think it's a useful reference point to combine with everything else (defense, efficiency, shooting, size, skillset, age etc) to better understand how much each player has successfully functioned as the source of offensive creation for their team. Naturally, the smaller guards are usually going to have higher scores here.



Note: I don't have self-creation data for international prospects so it's just NCAA prospects.

[greg4012]

Given Miami's needs and the desire to target offensive upside as a priority this draft cycle, I've been increasingly paying attention to all flashes/indicators of a prospect proving able to CREATE offense. Miami needs more of that--most teams usually benefit from more of that. Below is a simple chart showing the percentage of FGM by a prospect that were unassisted (aka self-created), the player's assist percentage (percentage of teammate FGs a player assisted while they were on the floor), and the sum of both of those numbers--which I've deemed their OFFENSIVE ENGINE SCORE.

This only means so much in isolation, but I def think it's a useful reference point to combine with everything else (defense, efficiency, shooting, size, skillset, age etc) to better understand how much each player has successfully functioned as the source of offensive creation for their team. Naturally, the smaller guards are usually going to have higher scores here.



Note: I don't have self-creation data for international prospects so it's just NCAA prospects.

Bumping my below post re Jeremiah Fears in light of the offensive creation data shared:

Barttorvik queries can get pretty silly pretty quick. But, it's an extremely useful and valuable tool for context of how prospects produce in college.

With that said, I believe this query is very straightforward and is massively impressive for Jeremiah Fears.

College freshman since 2008 with an assist percentage of 25% or greater, 150 rim attempts or more, and a free throw percentage of 80% or higher:



AKA offensive engines

Fears the only one that didn't have a good 3pt percentage in his freshman season.

With that said, Fears has the 2nd highest FT% of the group (behind Trae), the best percentage on long 2s (which are almost exclusively pull up jumpers), the highest free throw rate, the highest steal percentage, and attempted the 2nd most 3s (behind Trae).

I'm basically all-in on Fears as my #4 prospect right now in a tier with VJ Edgecombe.

[MettaWorldPanda]

I think our pick is going to come down to Fears, Richardson, and Jakucionis. I assume we will be picking anywhere from 8-12 due to our current standing situation and the likely hood of us getting bounced in the play in. We are currently sitting in the 11th spot.

[wadenation305]

At this point, we won't even be able to get Fears. Or anyone that looks interesting and we need that can have a high upside. This team is obsessed with being mediocre. Happily in the middle of the pack, always

We don't need any more gritty nobodies. We need an offensive engine.

[HeatIn5]

I wonder how high up a package of 11,19-21, Jaime could get us.

[Wiltside]

One thing I'm not too worried about is our scouting team finding a quality player at whatever pick we get.

Of course, I'd love to get a high pick and get a good shot at the top end talent, but we've historically batted very well in the first round.