OffSeason Free Agent Thread...Let's build a DYNASTY! 3.0

[GreenHat]

On Hoopshype:
Heat fans should appreciate Ray Allen next season, because there's no assurance he will be here beyond that. Two sources with direct knowledge tell us that Allen’s two-year deal with the Heat includes a $3.2 million player option for 2013-14. So if Allen wants to become a free agent again next July, he can. So can Rashard Lewis, due $1.4 million in 2013-14. Miami Herald


Didn't know this. I thought it was a three year deal...

Makes a lot of sense for both of them. If they have a big year they can get a big contract elsewhere. I'm sure we'll make some kind of wink-wink deal with Allen to stay another year and we'll overpay when we have his early bird rights.

If Rashard has a big year, he's young enough that he could get a deal big enough that we wouldn't be able to make a similar type deal with him

[GreenHat]

EthanJSkolnick
This means Allen could hit market in 2014 along w James, Bosh, Wade. Cd see scenario where players take less 2 continue 2gether.

I think these guys will have to take less if the miami big 3 is to continue together. Arison is going to be murdered in luxury tax with current salary levels and I'm not sure I can see him paying so much for so long.

But why should the money come out of the players' pockets instead of Arison's when he has more money than all the other players combined. He's making a killing off of this team, let him pay the tax. I can see the players taking less for a cap issue (like they did in 2010) but this is just a cash issue.

That's robbing Peter to pay Paul with Paul making orders of magnitudes more than Peter

[SilvaHeat3]

Brian Windhorst ‏@WindhorstESPN

Luis Scola has been awarded to the Phoenix Suns via amnesty waiver claim, source tells ESPN

[GreenHat]

C.J. Watson signed with the Nets for the minimum.

Not sure if we offered him a deal but I would think if he had the option to come here for the minimum he would have come here instead since he has a better chance of supplanting Chalmers than DWILL

I would have liked to have him as a backup pg. He's much better than Cole.

[FlashFlare]

Looks like Scola was claimed by the Suns. With Haywood to the Cats and reportedly no interest in Darko, either we sign Oden as a project and try to get him healthy or we stand pat and give the last spots to the SL players

Sent from my Nexus S using Tapatalk 2

[mopper8]

Looks like Scola was claimed by the Suns. With Haywood to the Cats and reportedly no interest in Dark, either we sign Ogden as a project and try to get him healthy or we stand pat and give the last spots to the SL players

Sent from my Nexus S using Tapatalk 2

3rd possibility - wait to see who gets cut once we get closer to training camp. People always get cut later on in the offseason

[NorrisColeWorld]

Can anyone get me a link to watch the summer league game on an iphone or a link to watch the game later.

[HEATVols865]

GreenHat, Arison said a few weeks back that he lost money the last two seasons as the owner and said that the team is his expensive hobby...
He is not getting richer off the team...

[HEATVols865]

Pittman can't even score or stay out of foul trouble in summer league! He makes me miss Duane Causewell...

[Vertical Limit]

Seriously Pittman is garbage, and some Heat fans here are giving him the Dorrell Wright treatment. I **** hate Dorrell Wright and got sick and tired of hearing about his potential and how he is more athletic than Wade yet he's never shown it before.

All Pittman needs now is a ridiculous NBA comparison. Let's call him the next Shaq shall we?

If the Rockets waive Harrellson I'm down, he can run the floor, the very little I saw of him he was grabbing rebounds and being disruptive on defense. I think he can play.

[Hallstar]

You do realise PIttman had 13/7/3 blks on 8 shots in 23 mins right? and that Harrellson can't do that IN summer league

You seem to be the one expecting Shaq

[YounG_A]

im late on this but i just read Allen's contract is 2 years and the 2nd year has a player option


what.....???? :O

he could leave after his first year -____-

[mopper8]

im late on this but i just read Allen's contract is 2 years and the 2nd year has a player option


what.....???? :O

he could leave after his first year -____-

Pretty sure that will only happen if its a total disaster.

If he's hitting 3's, contributing, and they're winning, and especially if they win a title, I don't think the opt out will be a big issue

[MartyCONLONNN]

Knicks fans and beat reporters still talking CP3 to justify NY's recent moves... could there be a more diluted fan base and media?? I even just read a tweet where Alan Hahn was saying Lin's bizarre contract could be a valuable trading piece in a sign & trade for CP3 before next season's deadline, should Paul want out of LA . I didn't think I could think less of the Knicks and everything that goes around them but they just keep on going and surprising me. The fun never stops.

[MartyCONLONNN]

im late on this but i just read Allen's contract is 2 years and the 2nd year has a player option


what.....???? :O

he could leave after his first year -____-

Pretty sure that will only happen if its a total disaster.

If he's hitting 3's, contributing, and they're winning, and especially if they win a title, I don't think the opt out will be a big issue

I think.. knowing what Ray was going to be giving up in terms of "legacy" and the comfort of having a team to retire with in the Celtics, talks about his family, along with the talk about us retiring his number... even if we don't win the championship next year, Ray still stays with us. A championship is never guaranteed no matter what team your on. To me this looks like Ray and Pat worked on something that kept things flexible that may make some sense for us in the future plans of the way we approach our cap situation going into that opt out year for the big 3. Riley is a careful and strategic man and I highly doubt Ray threw away his reputation for a one year taste of being on the Heat. But we'll see...

[OtW]

Keep in mind Ray is turning 37. Remember, when the news first broke that he was signing here, the word was, literally, that he wanted to retire with more rings, in the sun, and a place to play a lot of golf. We don't know when Ray is going to hang them up. I see him playing his contract out to his player option (opting in) then hanging them up.

[GreenHat]

GreenHat, Arison said a few weeks back that he lost money the last two seasons as the owner and said that the team is his expensive hobby...
He is not getting richer off the team...

He "lost" money and his team appreciated by quite a bit.

Not to mention he can use his team to promote his other companies (do you think Carnival pays full value for all of their advertising at AAA?)

If owning a basketball team didn't make money Sarver and Sterling would have sold years ago for huge profits. The Maloofs who desperately need money after their Vegas flop wouldn't even sell the Kings. Why wouldn't they get rid of their expensive hobby when their finances took a turn?

You can make any multi-million dollar company look substantially worse in terms of cash flow if you want to. Especially if you own a bunch of companies that all interlock. The Miami Heat make barely any money off of the arena. Instead Basketball Properties Ltd runs the arena and funnels all of the profits away from the team. They made 13 million off of the Heat in 2011 and made a profit again this year. You think Arison just lets some random company take that away from him out of the goodness of his heart? Its all part of the creative accounting.

The money isn't in the cash flow anyway. Arison's dad bought the team for 32 million. When they sell the team it will probably be in excess of 1 billion

Owning the Heat isn't purely altruistic.

[Heat fan06]

How did Pittman look? Any chance he could start at C in the regular season?

[HIF]

If he does, hopefully it's for the magic.

[lukekarts]

Just a word or two on FA signings - I think we shouldn't expect anything else significant in the coming seasons. Luxury tax will kill us.

I don't know how accurate Forbes' analysis is, but it's pretty much the only source on this kind of thing.

http://www.forbes.com/teams/miami-heat/

Forbes had us pegged at $158m turnover and $26m operating income, based on a $69m payroll. Now I'll make one assumption here that I'll use later on - non payroll expenses = $158m - $26m - $69m = $63m.

Now, our payroll projects at something like $80m / $84m / $84m for the next three seasons (assuming we replace guys who leave into the final of the 3 seasons)

Now, if we assume the lux tax threshold remains at $70m, we will have the following tax bills:

2012/13 - $80m - $70m = $10m = 1x tax (old CBA) = $10m
2013/14 - $84m - $70m = $14m = 2.5x tax (10-15m bracket, new CBA) = $35m
2014/15 - $84m - $70m = $14m = 3.5x tax (10-15m bracket repeat offender) = $49m!

Now those figures look insane under the new CBA. Total payroll per season inc. tax:

$80m + $10m = $90m
$84m + $35m = $119m
$84m + $49m = $133m

Now, there are talks of a new TV deal, but I've not found anything concrete to say it's all signed, nor do I know what extra revenue the team will make over the last deal. Reports were an annual value of $80m-$100m per year, which I'd guess is a 3-4x uplift. The team will also likely have seen a revenue jump due to winning the title. I'll be conservative and suggest $10m. So:

2012/13 - Revenue $168m - $63m costs - $80m payroll - $10m tax = $15m operating income
2013/14 - Revenue $168m - $63m costs - $84m payroll - $35m tax = $14m loss
2014/15 - Revenue $168m - $63m costs - $84m payroll - $49m tax = $28m loss

If anyone can help with any sources that give better data, I'll re-run the numbers, and maybe even open a separate topic. But you can understand why it will be very tight in the coming years, particularly given how punitive luxury tax is.