greg4012 wrote:SA37 wrote:greg4012 wrote:
I think he has potential. None of this stuff is certain. But, the effects of him realizing his potential are exponential impact as a force multiplier.
I also place a lot of value and importance on the dynamics that actually impact team building and acquiring rare skillsets. Contract makeups, leveraging value contracts, future planning with trade capital and draft assets, etc.
I mostly just wholly reject a decisionmaking process that is primarily rooted in limiting analysis to something like "KD good today and Ware not as good today so not trading Ware for KD is not good".
Getting too thirsty for these gambles results in getting the player and not being positioned to do anything with said player.
It's so far from being all about Ware for me, as I've clearly laid out in my posts if you pay attention. Cost of acquisition. Lines in sand.
No, nothing is guaranteed, but you take calculated risks. The goal at all times is to create a championship contender, not to excel at mid-level management. KD makes Miami a legitimate force to make a run to the ECF/Finals like it did during Butler's years in Miami. Ware does not, and he may never be that guy.
How good and impactful Ware will be is key to the analysis of whether it makes sense to include him in a Durant trade or not. If you trade Ware away and he becomes Wemby, Miami will look dumb if Miami never gets close to sniffing the ECF/Finals. If Miami passes on KD only to watch Ware become Tyson Chandler, Miami will look dumb.
If Miami passes on KD for Ware, then we're talking about a fundamentally different direction for Miami. It becomes about long-term team building and not about making Miami a contender now. At the end of the day, this is the decision that Miami has to make.
There's always another shot to take.
It's funny bc I've been one of the people on here making a strong case for KD's impact in Miami. But, you seem to be even higher than me on it (and in parallel lower on Ware's potential than me).
Please make the case for Miami giving up Ware + Wiggins (and draft capital that PHX has seemingly called for) and being the legitimate force to make a run to the ECF/Finals. If Miami is giving all of that up, where's a second move coming? Or do you think a power rotation of Bam, Jovic, and KD puts each in the right position to be maximized for their own impact and to help their teammates (as we all know, the frontcourt NEEDS to do most of the people moving for a decent team)? Where is any additional playmaking or guard rotation help coming from? Is Russell Westbrook or 40-year old Chris Paul the big second move?
Everything else about trying to make this squarely a convo about Ware vs KD is needless distraction.
PS: you're loving the Tyson Chandler comp for Ware lately. Fun fact--Ware scored at a higher rate as a rookie than Tyson Chandler did in any of his 19 seasons in the NBA
Ware could be Chandler, Camby, Whiteside, Porzingis, Brook Lopez, Jarrett Allen. It doesn't matter, really. They're all role players. And I don't think Ware has the talent to be more than that. My opinion is you don't pass on true, perennial all-NBA 1st team players to keep a potential role player given where Miami is and its clear intention over the years to add a top-tier talent.
As for a potential KD trade, I've said a few times I don't think Miami should include both Ware and Wiggins, unless there is a 3rd team sending Miami back other assets or Miami has some wink-wink deals with vets. I think the "line in the sand" is Miami either gives Phoenix (1) salary flexibility and picks/young players or (2)"win-now" players and lesser picks/young players or (3) Wiggins and Ware, but an expanded trade (3rd team) with basically no other assets going out. That basically looks something like:
(1) Rozier, Robinson, Ware, #20, and a top-6 protected 1st for Durant (essentially a 1st and a pick swap this year)
(2) Wiggins, Rozier, Anderson + some combo of Jaquez, Jovic, #20 or top-10 protected 1st for Durant
(3) Wiggins, Rozier, Ware #20 for Durant #29
Not sure all those work cap-wise, but that's the idea
In all cases, Miami is going to have to play go-fish for vets, with the most obvious targets being C Paul, B Lopez, Westbrook, Bruce Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Gary Trent Jr, Luke Kennard, Dennis Schroder, Kevon Looney, Al Horford, Tyus Jones...etc.
In cases 2 and 3, Miami would still have draft assets and possible a young guy + Robinson's contract to swap for a player. If Anderson isn't dealt, perhaps Miami swaps Robinson, Anderson, and a draft asset for Jrue Holiday?
Essentially, I think Miami can field a team:
B Lopez / K Love
Bam / Jovic (?) / Anderson (?)
Durant / Highsmith / Bruce Brown (?)
Herro / Burks / Kennard (?)
Tyus Jones (?) / Westbrook (?) / Mitchell (?) / Jrue Holiday (?)