Miami Heat Speculation Thread - 2020 and beyond...

[Seabass777]

When I really think about it, if we can't afford Crowder this offseason, I think KZ can really have a shot to fill his role even better, a long athletic ball handling wing that can shot the 3 ball. I think he's gonna surprise us.

[Seabass777]

When I really think about it, if we can't afford Crowder this offseason, I think KZ can really have a shot to fill his role even better, a long athletic ball handling wing that can shot the 3 balland he's 6'9-6'10!. I think he's gonna surprise us.

[Wiltside]

I think it would be very optimistic to think KZ will be ready to contribute Crowder like numbers (in particular, elite long distance shooting) next season.

Jae averaged 2.9 treys per game on 44.5% in 20 games for us in the regular season, and has upped that to 3.3 on 40% in the playoffs. For context, around 3 treys per game would put him on par with Bradley Beal, JJ Redick and Bojan Bogdanovic at around 11th in the league.

I'm intrigued by him though. He has elite measurements (6'9.5", 210lbs, 7'1.75" wingspan), would be epic if he was still growing a little.

Numbers in the G-League didn't set the world on fire though (20 games):
11.7ppg, 7.0rpg, 2.0apg, 1.4spg, 1.1bpg, 2.5tpg, 28.6mpg on 36.8%FG, 28.2% 3FG (0.6 per) and 63.5%FT (3.2FTA per)

I think a more realistic "best case scenario" leap example would be putting up similar numbers to what DJJ has for us this year (8/4 in 20+mpg).

He didn't dominate in the minor leagues the way Duncan did last year (21ppg, 4rpg, 3apg, 4.8 made threes per game(!)), but I guess Duncan was an older rookie with a very specific skill that we wanted to develop and get his confidence going.

KZ is like a jack of all trades master of none right now. Hopefully he's another one of our diamonds in the rough, and this time next year people are going "where the hell did that guy come from!?"

I suppose none of us saw Duncan making the progress he did over one summer, so who knows, KZ could surprise.

[broke]

herro will be traded very soon, quite possibly for an All-Star has been like LaMarcus Aldridge

Yuck, I hope not

[DayofMourning]

If Miami peaks by going to the Eastern Conference Finals, I believe that Riley is going to find a way to improve the roster THIS offseason. If he sees a window of opportunity, he'll take it to immediately improve the team's title chances. I believe the 2021 plan is to have as much cap space available to sign one of the many top tier players, however, we will not sacrifice our chance to win NOW. He will do all he reasonably can to add a star this offseason.

One number to think about (and remember) is the Heat's salaries for next year. You can find that here:

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/miami-heat/cap/2020/

We have $83,443,430 in player salaries next year. Just round that to $84 million.

So what is the salary cap going to be? Well Woj thinks it'll be $115 million:

The salary cap for the 2020-21 NBA season is projected to rise to $115 million after sitting at $109.1 million in 2019-20, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.

So we have approximately $31 million THIS offseason to spend. In order to access that amount we have to clear our cap holds, meaning renounce all our free agents.

That's these guys:



Out of that list, the guys who really fit what we are doing right now are Dragic, Crowder, and DJJ. Dragic will have to be renounced as he'd eat up our entire available cap space with that $29 million.

Once again, here's the link to the list of 2020 NBA Free Agents:

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/

My belief is that if we win the title this year, we will run it back again for one more season, and see if they can do it again. That means finding a way to keep our guys (Dragic, Crowder, DJJ) and work them into the 2021 plan.

If not, Riley's hunting for whales THIS offseason.

[DayofMourning]

Per wiretap, Eric Bledsoe is available. Just made the all defensive team. Salary of ~$16 million next year, with two more years after. 31 years old.

He's also a Kentucky Wildcat.

[DayofMourning]

Goran expected to be back?

https://heatnation.com/rumors/heat-rumors-goran-dragic-expected-to-stay-in-miami/

[HeatFanLifer]

Per wiretap, Eric Bledsoe is available. Just made the all defensive team. Salary of ~$16 million next year, with two more years after. 31 years old.

He's also a Kentucky Wildcat.

Bucks would be crazy to trade him to the team that just knocked them out of the playoffs.

[DayofMourning]

Per wiretap, Eric Bledsoe is available. Just made the all defensive team. Salary of ~$16 million next year, with two more years after. 31 years old.

He's also a Kentucky Wildcat.

Bucks would be crazy to trade him to the team that just knocked them out of the playoffs.

If they were that crazy, would you do it? I'd rather go for Dipo, but who knows what that boy is going to cost. I feel like Bledsoe won't have a lot of suitors. He's a big upgrade over Nunn, but he's also paid like it. Though, the money isn't THAT bad.

[IggieCC]

Per wiretap, Eric Bledsoe is available. Just made the all defensive team. Salary of ~$16 million next year, with two more years after. 31 years old.

He's also a Kentucky Wildcat.

Bucks would be crazy to trade him to the team that just knocked them out of the playoffs.

He was horrible against us. Past 2 seasons playoff stats as a starting point guard for a championship contender say he's a disappoint.

He's short and can't hit 3s. Very bad combination as he's getting older (31 in December). Hard Pass Previous OP (HPPO)

[DayofMourning]

Per wiretap, Eric Bledsoe is available. Just made the all defensive team. Salary of ~$16 million next year, with two more years after. 31 years old.

He's also a Kentucky Wildcat.

Bucks would be crazy to trade him to the team that just knocked them out of the playoffs.

He was horrible against us. Past 2 seasons playoff stats as a starting point guard for a championship contender say he's a disappoint.

He's short and can't hit 3s. Very bad combination as he's getting older (31 in December). Hard Pass Previous OP (HPPO)

I hear ya. I wanted to guage the board's feelings.

Here's his career playoffs game logs:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bledser01/gamelog-playoffs-advanced/

As you can see, his ORating/DRating split against us was just awful. He fared well against Orlando though. However, if you go back through the previous years series, you'll see that he historically plays well against bad teams in the first round, then turns into a big net negative against the better teams.

[IggieCC]

Bucks would be crazy to trade him to the team that just knocked them out of the playoffs.

He was horrible against us. Past 2 seasons playoff stats as a starting point guard for a championship contender say he's a disappoint.

He's short and can't hit 3s. Very bad combination as he's getting older (31 in December). Hard Pass Previous OP (HPPO)

I hear ya. I wanted to guage the board's feelings.

Here's his career playoffs game logs:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bledser01/gamelog-playoffs-advanced/

As you can see, his ORating/DRating split against us was just awful. He fared well against Orlando though. However, if you go back through the previous years series, you'll see that he historically plays well against bad teams in the first round, then turns into a big net negative against the better teams.

Yesh HPPO.

A quite few NBA players rack up stats against bad teams and we need to be careful of those. Look no further than Anthony Davis for the prime example that unibrow whack yo

Spoiler:

[HeatFanLifer]

Per wiretap, Eric Bledsoe is available. Just made the all defensive team. Salary of ~$16 million next year, with two more years after. 31 years old.

He's also a Kentucky Wildcat.

Bucks would be crazy to trade him to the team that just knocked them out of the playoffs.

If they were that crazy, would you do it? I'd rather go for Dipo, but who knows what that boy is going to cost. I feel like Bledsoe won't have a lot of suitors. He's a big upgrade over Nunn, but he's also paid like it. Though, the money isn't THAT bad.

He was horrible against us. Past 2 seasons playoff stats as a starting point guard for a championship contender say he's a disappoint.

He's short and can't hit 3s. Very bad combination as he's getting older (31 in December). Hard Pass Previous OP (HPPO)

HFL perspective:
Bledsoe’s defense is solid, but yeah that 3 point shot is horrid. The NBA game has evolved into a make or miss league. Just looking at shot charts there’s almost no mid range jumpers anymore and that’s not due to lack of open shots. Players are told by coaches now to step back 3-5 feet and take the lower % shot for more points. If you can’t hit that shot, you hurt the team.

For example, the Heat were able to game plan around knowing Bledsoe could not hit that 3 at a reliable clip so he would often pass, miss, or drive. Even with less than stellar coverage. Bucks coaches tried to get Bledsoe to take the shot in game 4 and it opened the floor somewhat allowing the Bucks to win, despite Bledsoe going 0-6. That was a one game gimmick though and in game 5 the Heat were able to game plan around knowing Bledsoe would defer to his comfortable game style when things got rough.

As another drawback, Bledsoe has also had more than a couple of injury plagued seasons.

So overall, I think the Heat should not make that deal. Especially given the 2 years left on contract. 3 point shooting reigns supreme in today’s NBA. A guard on the floor that can’t shoot is a liability.

[DayofMourning]

Yesh HPPO.

A quite few NBA players rack up stats against bad teams and we need to be careful of those. Look no further than Anthony Davis for the prime example that unibrow whack yo

Spoiler:

Made me look up AD's playoff successes, the few that he's had. Here ya go:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisan02/gamelog-playoffs-advanced/

Looks like he had a couple tough games against Golden State. Other than that, he's been real good. Check out his offensive/defensive rating splits vs Portland 2020.

Need him in a Vice jersey, STAT.

[radikalBaller]

I think dipo embiid and beal want to go to the heat. Dipo being the more realistic

[IggieCC]

Yesh HPPO.

A quite few NBA players rack up stats against bad teams and we need to be careful of those. Look no further than Anthony Davis for the prime example that unibrow whack yo

Spoiler:

Made me look up AD's playoff successes, the few that he's had. Here ya go:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisan02/gamelog-playoffs-advanced/

Looks like he had a couple tough games against Golden State. Other than that, he's been real good. Check out his offensive/defensive rating splits vs Portland 2020.

Need him in a Vice jersey, STAT.

yeah there is no defense against AD really it's just a matter of whether he's being assertive or not that seems to directly impact his effectiveness on the court. Do want HPPO (Go Rockets)

[AirP.]

Read on Twitter

[KingDavid]

We made the ecf, did lebatard do a rant?

[al bondiga]

Do you think Jae and Goran would accept 1 year $15 million contracts?

Dragic yes, Crowder no way.

I don't think neither of them is worth more than that

[IggieCC]

As much as I need to humble myself for my initial disinterest for Jae Crowder, I still feel like I need to stand firm on overpaying him based on his performance as a Heat will be a mistake.

Eyes on the prize HPPO