The Retooling Thread: What do we do now

[DBurks2818]

If this team was at maybe the #4 or #5 seed at worst right now, then yes.

But Bibby will only hurt the lotto balls at this point.

[BFO]

He would be ok, but I would prefer to chase a post presence with our expirings. We don't need an all-star PG next to Wade; we do need a talented big man though.

Brand is at the top of my list.

[Shaq_Diesel]

I say yes...

I don't think Marion will opt out. Nobody has cap space this summer, everyone is gearing towards next summer. If he wants money, this isn't the summer to go into free agency.

If we trade JWill & Ricky for Bibby (or something along those lines), we add another 13-14 mil to our expiring collection for the 2009 summer. That would put us atleast around $33-35 mil in expirings. Another $14 mil in expirings the following summer (Udonis & Blount), when we'll need to extend Wade.

[HeatSince88]

Guys, I've got what I think(?) is an even better idea that would make us stronger defensively, offensively, AND create more cap room than trading expirings for Bibby would.

We'd become the Phoenix Suns of the East and contend starting next year and for many years to come. We'd be the most exciting team to watch and to play for ...

Check out my post at the bottom for details:
http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic. ... 5#15407635

[HIF]

lol life's 2k8

[DBurks2818]

It's interesting. I just don't like Marion at PF long-term, but who knows?

[G.cracker]

No to Bibby.

We're going for Brand. He is our target.

He knows we want him. We know he wants us. We know he likes Gucci. He knows we know he likes Gucci. Gucci knows we know he knows he likes Gucci.

Sterling will either say oh fudge and trade him now for desirable stuff (expirings plus Dorell - LA boy and cheap), or Brand will threaten a FA departure and engineer a S&T.

[HeatSince88]

It's interesting. I just don't like Marion at PF long-term, but who knows?

Actually, that's one of the reasons I crafted the trade. Marion is actually way more productive at PF than at SF. And as he gets older and loses some quickness (he's about to turn 30), the difference will become more and more pronounced.

Here's Marion's numbers this year per 48 minutes ...

SF - 18pts / 11 reb / 1.5 blk / 54% eFG
PF - 25 pts / 14 reb / 2.3 blk / 59% eFG

http://www.82games.com/0708/07PHO9C.HTM

Also, putting a smaller, quicker stopper type at SF (like Pietrus) will allow Wade to defend the other teams worst perimeter offensive player and thus conserve energy for offense. For instance, Pietrus can defend a guy like Ben Gordon, whereas a 30-plus-year-old Marion cannot. That allows Wade to take Duhon, or Sefelosha, or Hinrich, or whoever doesn't run around ball screens 40 minutes a game.

All in all, Marion produces way more at PF than at SF, and our perimeter defense is much better with him at PF and a smaller stopper-type at SF. And that makes D-Wade more effective having Marion spread the floor at PF (more than Haslem could) and not having to chase SGs thru screens all game.

[HeatSince88]

No to Bibby.

We're going for Brand. He is our target.

He knows we want him. We know he wants us. We know he likes Gucci. He knows we know he likes Gucci. Gucci knows we know he knows he likes Gucci.

Sterling will either say oh fudge and trade him now for desirable stuff (expirings plus Dorell - LA boy and cheap), or Brand will threaten a FA departure and engineer a S&T.

IMO, if Brand can be traded for, other teams can put up way better packages than us. Just off the top of my head ... Seattle can do Jeff Green, 2008 Top 5 pick, Kurt Thomas's expiring deal, and another player. If your Sterling, do you take two Top 5 picks locked up for 4 years (plus cap space) or Dorell Wright -- the free agent to be?

The only way for us to sign Brand is if Marion opts out of $17 million and we renounce him plus everybody else (Dorell, Ricky, JWill, Zo, Quinn, etc). Then we sign Brand and have only minimum contracts to fill out the roster and that's our team for the foreseeable future.

I mean, there's no way Marion opts out of $17 million next year anyway, so this scenario can even happen ... unless we deal Haslem and Blount for expirings, which I don't see happening nowadays. Nobody's even offering expirings for Jason Kidd, why would they for Haslem/Blount?

[DBurks2818]

Ok. I didn't know he was that much more productive at PF. Maybe it would work out then, if we got a shot-blocking C (I see you listed Jordan).

On to my next beef: Why Arenas? I know Riley said he wants DWade's facsimile back there at PG, but why not spend less on someone who can better defend and better run an offense while needing the ball less? That way more money can be spent filling out the bench.

That's why I think a lineup of something like:

PG- DWest/Banks
SG- Wade/Cook
SF- Pietrus/Wright
PF- Marion
C- Jordan

Would be better. There's more money to go after stronger bench players.

[HeatSince88]

Exactly DBurks ... a TON of options with that much cap space.

It's stacking up to be a ridiculous free agent summer in 2009, and we'd have $25 million to spend with just one reasonable trade. I suppose it would be whatever D-Wade wants around him.

[DBurks2818]

Yeah, even this summer should be pretty interesting.

I can't wait to see who Riley trades JWill for. We'll have a better read on his vision for the team at the deadline.

[thparadox]

Wade + Marion + Beasley/Rose should make an instant contender.

[SA37]

Here is a question I have that someone with better CBA knowledge can help with.

Let's assume Marion opts in and we get a real sense of our tandem next year when Wade's knee will be better. I'm assuming so because no one will pay him $17M and he is young enough that a longer deal is still achievable a year from now... If this tandem is what we want long term and we want to resign Marion, but have the flexibility to add another max player in 2010 in addition to resigning Wade and possibly UD and the MLE we sign this summer, can we sign Marion to a contract similar to the LO deal with a balloon payment in 2009-2010, a big drop the next year, and then two more at higher rates?

Essentially, most teams can afford two max-level guys and then must use the rest of the room under the cap or the tax to fill out their roster. What makes this situation difficult for Miami is that the potential cap space Miami could have, either this summer or next, is compromised because it is a choice of building around Wade and Marion or Wade and whoever Miami can get with space. Marion's cap hold forces Miami into a decision.

If Marion were coming off a rookie contract, Miami's flexibility and ability to add more quality players to the core of Haslem, Wade, and Marion would be infinitely greater because Miami could absorb his cap hold and still have enough space to sign a guy to a deal starting at $10-12 million a season and then re-up Marion via his Bird Rights. But, because of Marion coming off such a large deal, the cap hold strangles the Heat and Miami has a decision: cap space or Marion.

You look at players that play the same position and/or with a similar skill-set to Marion's and you'll see they get paid good money:

Tayshaun Prince: 5-years, $48 million
Gerald Wallace: 6-years, $57 million
Josh Howard: 4-years, $40 million
Lamar Odom: 6-years, $65 million
Richard Jefferson: 6-years, $76 million
Peja Stojakovic: 5-years, $64 million
Rashard Lewis: 6-years, $118 million
Andrei Kirilenko: 6-years, $86 million

Don't think he won't notice Miami gave Lamar Odom his contract or that they recently gave Antoine Walker 6-years, $53 million.

And he'll be paying real close attention to the money Josh Smith receives, the money that Andre Igoudala gets, the money Antawn Jamison gets (who is coming off a 6-year, $80 million deal), and the money Ron Artest gets. (Let me point out that, currently, Marion is probably better than everyone I just named. If you had to pick the guys he would compete with for the best 3 from that list, you'd have to say Odom, Jefferson, and Howard. Now look at their contracts.)

If Marion re-signs with Miami, either this summer or next, his deal will not be any less than $10 million to start. I would be shocked if it started at anything lower. So, between Wade and him, they'd be taking up about half of Miami cap space.

The plan up until now has been cap space in 2010. Obviously, this allows Miami the opportunity to speed that process up. However, when you're talking about committing the kind of money Marion or another player of that caliber will ask for, you better be sure that is a tandem you can build around and compete for a title. Marion will be 30 at the end of the year. That means if Miami is going to build around Marion and Wade, there is about a 4-5 year window to get a championship here. Riley will need to evaluate whether Miami is capable of putting together a roster that is capable of competing for a title in that time frame.

So, the best thing for Miami is if Marion opts in because it gives Miami another season to evaluate things, namely, how well Marion and Wade play together, whether Wright has a future with the team (it'll be interesting to see if he plays better now that Miami's offense will be more fast-paced), and how much potential our pick has (and what position he will play). Then Miami isn't committed long-term to Marion yet and they can still keep the '10 cap space plan an option.

So, while this deal gives Miami options, there is still more work to be done. I think we'll have a better idea of what Miami is thinking after the deadline. Will Davis and Williams be moved for other pieces or will Riley let them expire? If Davis and Williams are allowed to simply expire, that would seem to signal a more long-term rebuilding plan and a greater possibility that Marion is a rental, despite Riley's contention he wants to rebuild faster, and I will explain that in more detail below.

Then we get a good pick for a primary need (PG or C) and fill the other with an MLE guy with a 3 year deal, the third year being a team option (possible?).

It is possible to do this, but any player willing to sign that kind of a deal is probably not going to be that good.

So, using a 4 year $60 extension (similar to Vince Carter deal)
$14M - $10 - $18 - $18

Thus allowing us to have only about $15M on the books with this deal and DQ, 08 pick, plus holds for Wade, UD, potential MLE, which we can go over the cap to sign.

It's doable, but it is a little more complicated.

The problem with that is Wade's cap hold (would be about $18 million, assuming a cap of $60 million) or his salary (if he doesn't opt out, he'd be on the books for $17.2 million), Udonis' cap hold (somewhere between $11 and $14 million), and Marion's deal (assuming he was re-signed) would consume so much of Miami's space.

Miami could lower the number against them by quickly signing Haslem, who wouldn't command that kind of salary, and Wade, who could give the Heat a few more million by signing a deal starting at 13-14 million, but even so, That would be, say:

Wade ~ $14 million
Marion ~ $12 million
Haslem ~ $7 million
Our pick from '08 ~ $4 million
Banks ~ $4.8 million
Cook ~ $1.4 million
'10 pick ~ $1.5 million
~2.3 million in player cap holds

Total: $47 million

Even with a $60 million cap, that is only $13 million to fill out the rest of the roster. And it is questionable whether or not that team is capable of competing for a title. (Keep in mind, though this means Miami has to build its team over the next 2 seasons without giving more than 2 year deals. That is tough to do. And Marion's time is limited, to some degree.)

Miami could also gain a few million in extra room by front-loading Marion's contract, as you suggested. If I have it right, it would work like this. (I am working with the assumption Marion has a deal starting at $10 million a season and he signs the extension in the summer of '09.):

'09-'10: $10 million
'10-'11: $9.2 million
'11-'12: $11.6 million
'12-'13: $12.4 million

...and so on. It would give Miami a few more million to play with.

This option is really only feasible if either Miami's '08 pick turns out to be an absolute stud or if Miami uses Williams and Davis' expiring deals to add players now who will expire by '10.

Mike Miller, Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace, Jermaine O'Neal, Jason Kidd, Andre Miller, Ron Artest, and Mike Bibby would seem to be the only available pieces Miami could get by simply dealing expiring contracts and Wright, Cook, or a future pick(s). (Of course, our pending deal with Minnesota really hurts Miami, as far as sending future picks.)

This is obviously a very unlikely scenario, but Miami could put themselves in an interesting position if they pulled this deal off:

Miami gets: Jermaine O'Neal and Mike Miller

Memphis gets: Ricky Davis and Dorell Wright

Indiana gets: Jason Williams, Alonzo Mourning, Daequan Cook, Smush Parker, and a future #1 from Miami

Then Miami looks like this to finish the season:

O'Neal - Blount
Haslem - Johnson
Marion - Miller
Wade- FA
Banks - Quinn

The team is competitive again and would add a lottery pick plus a player or two with the MLE and LLE. And, the team would still be in play for the '10 cap space summer.

Like I said, unlikely, but not impossible.

[HEATVols865]

Ok SA you said that a team can have 2 max guys and then it can still sign a guy in the $10-12mi/year.
From what you said if Marion signs for $10 million, we would be straight.

[OAKTREE NYK1]

Thanks for the replies guys. I too am under the notion that we wont have as much cap space as we think next year with Marion not opting out of 17 million. He would be crazy to opt out of that. Only three teams have money to dish out next year and one of his addendums for teams is that it must be a warm weather place. I like Bibby for the fact that he will come off the books the same time Marion does. 2009 is the year we have to start looking at for free agents unless we like Bibby and Marion that much we extend them. Bibby or hell even Andre Miller would do it for me at this point. They would destroy the lotto ball chances though if a trade is made but then again we need to get something for J-Will and Davis before they walk.

[OAKTREE NYK1]

I just have a hard time picturing Riley letting a rookie PG take control of this team even if he is very talented. I can see them getting a guy like Bibby or Miller now then looking for a big man in the draft like Jordan or trade down for Hibbert or Thabeet or Lopez.

[OAKTREE NYK1]

I see a ton of people really high on us getting Brand but what guarantee is there that he will opt out of his current deal or even Sterling giving him a max contract. From what I hear I think Brand is like Sterlings favorite player.

[HeatSince88]

Thanks for the replies guys. I too am under the notion that we wont have as much cap space as we think next year with Marion not opting out of 17 million. He would be crazy to opt out of that. Only three teams have money to dish out next year and one of his addendums for teams is that it must be a warm weather place. I like Bibby for the fact that he will come off the books the same time Marion does. 2009 is the year we have to start looking at for free agents unless we like Bibby and Marion that much we extend them. Bibby or hell even Andre Miller would do it for me at this point. They would destroy the lotto ball chances though if a trade is made but then again we need to get something for J-Will and Davis before they walk.

Yep, I'd be on board with Bibby or Miller too, if for no other reason than the whole "expiring-in-16-months" thing when Marion's contract also expires. I say the bigger the expiring at that point, the better ...

JKidd - $21 million expiring in 2009
Bibby - $14 million expiring in 2009
Miller - $10 million expiring in 2009
(To go with Marion @ $17 million expiring in 2009)

All 3 guys can run the point on an uptempo Wade/Marion team and make us pretty good next year, then be replaced with a younger version using all the cap room their contracts create thereafter.

[OAKTREE NYK1]

That's the blueprint......Plus with Bibby in the fold next year we could really make a strong push for the playoffs and make Dewayne happy knowing that we rebuilt this team into a viable playoff contender once again. Marion and Bibby are both the same age and really going into the best age for making a strong 4-5 year playoff run. Add in a top 5 pick and we should be able to see playoff basketball once again next year. After next year is up let those contracts expire or resign them pending how they fit on the team. In the weak East this Heat team should be top 3. Plus I think Wade and Marion need a three point marksman like Bibby handling the point and getting the kick outs from Matrix and Flash. Love the idea of getting Bibby. We'll draft our post monster. Riley doesnt like rookie point guards anyway