2025-26 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 3.0

[Crazy-Canuck]

Tyler better sign whatever extension the Heat put in front of him. He came into the season with questions about his every day availability, and has done nothing but underline and highlight the issue.

Imo, availability is the bigger issue whether you pay him 20M or 40M or 50M.

So do you continue to build around the guy? We've seen how hard it is integrate such a high usg player and a player you need to build a defense around.
Hes not going back to the bench. People seem to want to move wiggins to the bench. Pelle is such a good fit with how the team wants to play. Do you bench him instead? As long as Spo is the coach, Im assuming davion is a lock unless another pg is acquired.

Money is just a small part of the equation with herro if the Heat intend to extend him instead of trading him.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Players are defined by what the data actually says, not by the noise and certainly not by what fans like you want them to be

Whatever makes yall sleep better at night

So far, you are almost out of analytics to back up your argument

My spreadsheet still has a few rows left, he'll likely be fine

Regression to the mean isn't a suggestion, it's a mathematical inevitability
I’m fine to wait for the data and see how it plays out, but you apparently have a crystal ball and already know exactly who some players are and always will be

I love advanced stats too but I’m curious, from the perspective of someone who only understands the numbers and thinks they’re absolute, catch all context, and nothing else matters…..do you think you know more about the game of basketball than someone like a Phil Jackson, Popovich, etc? Because I’d be shocked if they know DARKO LEBRON or EPM

[Vertical Limit]

Tyler better sign whatever extension the Heat put in front of him. He came into the season with questions about his every day availability, and has done nothing but underline and highlight the issue.

Imo, availability is the bigger issue whether you pay him 20M or 40M or 50M.

So do you continue to build around the guy? We've seen how hard it is integrate such a high usg player and a player you need to build a defense around.
Hes not going back to the bench. People seem to want to move wiggins to the bench. Pelle is such a good fit with how the team wants to play. Do you bench him instead? As long as Spo is the coach, Im assuming davion is a lock unless another pg is acquired.

Money is just a small part of the equation with herro if the Heat intend to extend him instead of trading him.

No team in the NBA is building around a very limited skillset player like Tyler Herro.. not a team that wants to win at least.

that’s like having a franchise and thinking hey, Lamelo Ball is a franchise player. Or Bradley beal is our franchise player. Or in football terms, Tua Tagovailoa is a franchise player.

The Miami Heat are not the bobcats or the wizards. That is what upsets a lot of us, how low down the barrel this franchise has gone to to sell us on some limited glorified bench player as a franchise player.. and they have successfully fooled some of the fans too.

[VaDe255]

Whatever makes yall sleep better at night

So far, you are almost out of analytics to back up your argument

My spreadsheet still has a few rows left, he'll likely be fine

Regression to the mean isn't a suggestion, it's a mathematical inevitability
I’m fine to wait for the data and see how it plays out, but you apparently have a crystal ball and already know exactly who some players are and always will be

I love advanced stats too but I’m curious, from the perspective of someone who only understands the numbers and thinks they’re absolute, catch all context, and nothing else matters…..do you think you know more about the game of basketball than someone like a Phil Jackson, Popovich, etc? Because I’d be shocked if they know DARKO LEBRON or EPM

Of course not. Those guys process the game at a genius level and grind film frame by frame to see impact (which is the only way to really catch everything, provided you know what to look for).

But here is the reality check: they use these metrics too. Every FO spends millions on this data to back up what they see.

So no, I don't think stats beat Pop or Spo, but these metrics absolutely beat the "couch eye test" and the narratives that come with it.

I trust the algorithms, which evaluate every possession using Second Spectrum tracking data that fans never even get to see, to evaluate players accurately.

I get it's fun to talk sports and theorize, but thinking you can do it better than DARKO, LEBRON or EPM is kind of pointless unless you do this professionally and invest the same amount of time, we live in an age where it's very difficult to beat machine learning at almost anything these days

[twix2500]

Not holding my breath but I hope Bam sees you don't have to depend on a guard to shoot you back into the game. He can do it himself

[SA37]

Crazy that Bam's 3 point % after this last game has him shooting 35.7% from 3 on the year, which is the exact same % as the last two years.

Unrelated, but Kasparas is shooting 45.7% from three, on decent volume making exactly one three a game (16 threes in 16 games), while only playing 14.6 mins per game. But then he is shooting 12.5% on two point shots, and is now 3/24. He is also shooting 92.9% from free throws.

And what is SUPER promising is he shot .6 3s/g in 23-24 then almost 5xd that to 2.8 3s/g and now he's 1.5xd that to 4.2 3s/g.

If you look at his stats, his ppg and overall FG% has dropped significantly over this time period (52-48-45). His efg% is only slightly down.

It's a bit of mixed bag overall: per 36 he's playing at a similar level or better, but per 100 poss he's a bit down. Still, his offensive aggressiveness is showing up more often, and I think if Miami can get that offensive impetus out of him more often, Miami will be much better off for it.

[SA37]

Read on Twitter

VaDe showed Spo DARKO, LEBRON, EPM, ROI, and NOI

That stat was: Miami is better when Herro is out. The Herro Hex is real.

I’m almost starting to buy into it (just kidding , I generally refuse to put stock in sports narratives, especially the superstitious kind).

Herro's on/off numbers this year are legitimately bad though. The team is a -5.34 Net Rating with him on the floor and -4.75 in the games he played.

It’s a small sample size, but that’s all the fuel fans need to validate their confirmation bias and it certainly is not a good trend

He’s arguably been one of the more underwhelming players this season (mostly because of injuries) and it’s hard to argue against narratives when the analytical profile this year looks like this, the 2nd part of the year might very well decide if he has a future in Miami

My take is the Herro Hex is real. Now, I keep throwing that out in jest just for be bit polemical because I can't help it. However, the nuanced, adult take is Herro has played fabulously from an individual standpoint. He's comes back from injury and played seamlessly at a very high level. Granted, it's only 11 games, but he's getting 22-5r-3a on 50-36-90. This is similar output to Powell.

The issue, imo, comes down to Miami just doesn't work as well as a unit when Herro has been in the lineup. It's the alchemy I mentioned some pages back. On paper, Miami is MUCH better from a talent standpoint when Herro is in the lineup; the results don't match that. And it's hard to see a Powell/Herro + whoever else lineup working long-term. It has that Blazers Lillard/CJ McCollum vibe to it, but neither player is as good as Lillard was. So it's basically 2 CJ McCollums.

The above + Herro's supposed contract demands + the desire for change + having Powell as a replacement + Miami needing reinforcements elsewhere + Herro likely being the best trade chip/the most expendable player on the roster + a generally feeling Herro has kind of reached his peak has everyone packing Herro's bags.

[Lennyzinho]

Crazy that Bam's 3 point % after this last game has him shooting 35.7% from 3 on the year, which is the exact same % as the last two years.

Unrelated, but Kasparas is shooting 45.7% from three, on decent volume making exactly one three a game (16 threes in 16 games), while only playing 14.6 mins per game. But then he is shooting 12.5% on two point shots, and is now 3/24. He is also shooting 92.9% from free throws.

And what is SUPER promising is he shot .6 3s/g in 23-24 then almost 5xd that to 2.8 3s/g and now he's 1.5xd that to 4.2 3s/g.

If you look at his stats, his ppg and overall FG% has dropped significantly over this time period (52-48-45). His efg% is only slightly down.

It's a bit of mixed bag overall: per 36 he's playing at a similar level or better, but per 100 poss he's a bit down. Still, his offensive aggressiveness is showing up more often, and I think if Miami can get that offensive impetus out of him more often, Miami will be much better off for it.

When KJ drives and sprays aka kick out to shooters, he's really good. Also took really good care of the ball, no turnovers as a starting rookie PG vs okc is nice to see. He takes it very seriously which we can all appreciate. And he has a really nice stroke and smooth release, his 3pt shot is real. Ofc cant expect him to shoot 46% consistently, but I see no reason why he cant be a career 38-40% type shooter which is NICE. His FT % being in the 90s is also a strong correlater that his 3pt shot is real. And he's good on defense or at least hustles and plays hard.

His faults as of now are too many fouls and trying to do too much on defense (learning curve ofc), and by far his biggest issue is when he drives to score. I dont know if hes timid or doesnt trust his mid-range game. But he has very little finishing touch on drives to the basket. Looks out of control like hes forcing it. And I havent seen him shoot a single fadeaway or little step back jumper which I felt was there for him often yesterday. So offensively he's somewhat limited but as a 19 yo rookie i cant help but be super bullish on this kid long term.

[Crazy-Canuck]

Crazy that Bam's 3 point % after this last game has him shooting 35.7% from 3 on the year, which is the exact same % as the last two years.

Unrelated, but Kasparas is shooting 45.7% from three, on decent volume making exactly one three a game (16 threes in 16 games), while only playing 14.6 mins per game. But then he is shooting 12.5% on two point shots, and is now 3/24. He is also shooting 92.9% from free throws.

And what is SUPER promising is he shot .6 3s/g in 23-24 then almost 5xd that to 2.8 3s/g and now he's 1.5xd that to 4.2 3s/g.

If you look at his stats, his ppg and overall FG% has dropped significantly over this time period (52-48-45). His efg% is only slightly down.

It's a bit of mixed bag overall: per 36 he's playing at a similar level or better, but per 100 poss he's a bit down. Still, his offensive aggressiveness is showing up more often, and I think if Miami can get that offensive impetus out of him more often, Miami will be much better off for it.

When KJ drives and sprays aka kick out to shooters, he's really good. Also took really good care of the ball, no turnovers as a starting rookie PG vs okc is nice to see. He takes it very seriously which we can all appreciate. And he has a really nice stroke and smooth release, his 3pt shot is real. Ofc cant expect him to shoot 46% consistently, but I see no reason why he cant be a career 38-40% type shooter which is NICE. His FT % being in the 90s is also a strong correlater that his 3pt shot is real. And he's good on defense or at least hustles and plays hard.

His faults as of now are too many fouls and trying to do too much on defense (learning curve ofc), and by far his biggest issue is when he drives to score. I dont know if hes timid or doesnt trust his mid-range game. But he has very little finishing touch on drives to the basket. Looks out of control like hes forcing it. And I havent seen him shoot a single fadeaway or little step back jumper which I felt was there for him often yesterday. So offensively he's somewhat limited but as a 19 yo rookie i cant help but be super bullish on this kid long term.

Kj is struggling around the rim due to a lack of athleticism. Its the same thing that happened to podz.

He will need to get crafty or develop a floater game. I dont think he'll ever really improve his athleticism or quickness, but he is smart enough to develop a counter. The biggest benefit he has as a pg right now is his size and frame to add more muscle. His confidence in his 3 ball also looks promising as a set shooter.

[VaDe255]

That stat was: Miami is better when Herro is out. The Herro Hex is real.

I’m almost starting to buy into it (just kidding , I generally refuse to put stock in sports narratives, especially the superstitious kind).

Herro's on/off numbers this year are legitimately bad though. The team is a -5.34 Net Rating with him on the floor and -4.75 in the games he played.

It’s a small sample size, but that’s all the fuel fans need to validate their confirmation bias and it certainly is not a good trend

He’s arguably been one of the more underwhelming players this season (mostly because of injuries) and it’s hard to argue against narratives when the analytical profile this year looks like this, the 2nd part of the year might very well decide if he has a future in Miami

My take is the Herro Hex is real. Now, I keep throwing that out in jest just for be bit polemical because I can't help it. However, the nuanced, adult take is Herro has played fabulously from an individual standpoint. He's comes back from injury and played seamlessly at a very high level. Granted, it's only 11 games, but he's getting 22-5r-3a on 50-36-90. This is similar output to Powell.

The issue, imo, comes down to Miami just doesn't work as well as a unit when Herro has been in the lineup. It's the alchemy I mentioned some pages back. On paper, Miami is MUCH better from a talent standpoint when Herro is in the lineup; the results don't match that. And it's hard to see a Powell/Herro + whoever else lineup working long-term. It has that Blazers Lillard/CJ McCollum vibe to it, but neither player is as good as Lillard was. So it's basically 2 CJ McCollums.

The above + Herro's supposed contract demands + the desire for change + having Powell as a replacement + Miami needing reinforcements elsewhere + Herro likely being the best trade chip/the most expendable player on the roster + a generally feeling Herro has kind of reached his peak has everyone packing Herro's bags.

Nah disagree a lot with the "chemistry take", I did look at some of the on/off numbers in the games Herro played:

Tyler Herro, Norman Powell -> 143 minutes +4.39 net rating, 115.36 off / 110.97 def
Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Norman Powell -> 132 minutes +8.43 net rating, 119.73 off / 111.30 def
Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins -> 124 minutes +11.01 net rating, 123.83 off / 112.82 def
Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell -> 94 minutes +11.61 net rating, 124.88 off / 113.27 def

The "chemistry" when the best players are on the court is just fine, when the struggles begin has been the bench unit in games Herro played
It's not enough games, matters a lot where you play and who you play, but the trend so far has been, in Herro games the starters look great and the bench units suck

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

The matchups aren’t “hard” on a team record basis but the schedule is brutal. 5 games in 7 nights is asking for some injuries and maybe a loss or 2 we had no business losing. Let’s hope I’m wrong and also hope for good health, anything less than a 3-2 week is a failure

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Our savior Ja Morant is absolutely carving up our Kryptonite Orlando Magic right now

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Our savior Ja Morant is absolutely carving up our Kryptonite Orlando Magic right now

Read on Twitter

Clearly inspired by Bams greatness last night and trying to show Patrick and Spo how dominant of a duo they can be.

Bam torched the Grizzlies kryptonite last night, Jas torching the Heats kryptonite today. Acing his final audition in his final game in a grizzlies jersey

[twix2500]

Read on Twitter

?s=61

[Lennyzinho]

Our savior Ja Morant is absolutely carving up our Kryptonite Orlando Magic right now

Read on Twitter

Clearly inspired by Bams greatness last night and trying to show Patrick and Spo how dominant of a duo they can be.

Bam torched the Grizzlies kryptonite last night, Jas torching the Heats kryptonite today. Acing his final audition in his final game in a grizzlies jersey

Not trying to be a contrarian or hater but after seeing this I went to prime to watch his first ten mins... he should've had multiple turnovers, kept getting saved by second efforts by teammates and lucky with tipped passes. Also Jalen Suggs didnt play for the magic which wouldve made this performance alot more interesting. He made some contested 3s but they were bad shots tbh. Idk. Nice performance but grizz looked on fire first half and magic looked downright bad.

He plays the Nuggets and rockets next week and then two games vs twolves to end the month. Lets see if he keeps it up and keeps playing well, it'll be a fun subplot to keep an eye on. All my attention is on giannis. MIL is in ATL 1pm tomorrow.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Our savior Ja Morant is absolutely carving up our Kryptonite Orlando Magic right now

Read on Twitter

Clearly inspired by Bams greatness last night and trying to show Patrick and Spo how dominant of a duo they can be.

Bam torched the Grizzlies kryptonite last night, Jas torching the Heats kryptonite today. Acing his final audition in his final game in a grizzlies jersey

Not trying to be a contrarian or hater but after seeing this I went to prime to watch his first ten mins... he should've had multiple turnovers, kept getting saved by second efforts by teammates and lucky with tipped passes. Also Jalen Suggs didnt play for the magic which wouldve made this performance alot more interesting. He made some contested 3s but they were bad shots tbh. Idk. Nice performance but grizz looked on fire first half and magic looked downright bad.

He plays the Nuggets and rockets next week and then two games vs twolves to end the month. Lets see if he keeps it up and keeps playing well, it'll be a fun subplot to keep an eye on. All my attention is on giannis. MIL is in ATL 1pm tomorrow.

Giannis is of course the ultimate goal

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[shanedude]

Kind of wild to me that we have a a legitimate shot at giannis? Or is that us heat fans are under a collective mass delusion. I feel like a lot has to happen for that to happen.... Mke and Giannis both would have to find a trade to miami palatable. Herro, Ware and Jaquez + pics are probably our best offer. We'd probably have to get a frp for wiggins too. It's a lot to ask for.

[KingDavid]

Whatever makes yall sleep better at night

So far, you are almost out of analytics to back up your argument

My spreadsheet still has a few rows left, he'll likely be fine

Regression to the mean isn't a suggestion, it's a mathematical inevitability
I’m fine to wait for the data and see how it plays out, but you apparently have a crystal ball and already know exactly who some players are and always will be

I love advanced stats too but I’m curious, from the perspective of someone who only understands the numbers and thinks they’re absolute, catch all context, and nothing else matters…..do you think you know more about the game of basketball than someone like a Phil Jackson, Popovich, etc? Because I’d be shocked if they know DARKO LEBRON or EPM

That's why they have a staff. The data they have access to we [the general public] contractually can't acquire;

NBA teams use specialized analytics companies to access detailed data and proprietary tools that are not available to the general public. Key providers of these exclusive statistics and platforms include:

Second Spectrum: The current official optical tracking provider of the NBA, Second Spectrum software uses in-arena cameras to track the movements of every player and the ball 25 times per second. This technology provides highly granular data used by teams for strategic analysis and player development that goes beyond basic box scores.

Synergy Sports Technology (part of the Atrium Sports group): This company provides detailed video and data logging for countless games, including college and international leagues, which is vital for draft preparation and opponent scouting. Their tools resemble the detailed scouting reports teams use internally and provide specific, logged plays for analysis.

Stats Perform (formerly STATS LLC): Previously the official player tracking partner with its SportVU system, Stats Perform continues to be a major sports data and analysis company that supplies statistical material and analytical tools to professional leagues and teams.

KINEXON Sports: Nearly every NBA team uses KINEXON for data insights, which focuses on elite athlete tracking and performance data.

Teamworks Intelligence (formerly Zelus Analytics): This company provides AI-powered insights and advanced machine learning models for roster construction, player evaluation, and game strategy to elite teams.

While websites like nba.com and Basketball Reference offer a wealth of data to fans, the proprietary tools and raw tracking data from companies like Second Spectrum, Synergy, and KINEXON allow NBA front offices and coaching staffs to perform much deeper, more customized analyses that remain largely internal.

[MartyConlonJr]

Crazy that Bam's 3 point % after this last game has him shooting 35.7% from 3 on the year, which is the exact same % as the last two years.

Unrelated, but Kasparas is shooting 45.7% from three, on decent volume making exactly one three a game (16 threes in 16 games), while only playing 14.6 mins per game. But then he is shooting 12.5% on two point shots, and is now 3/24. He is also shooting 92.9% from free throws.

And what is SUPER promising is he shot .6 3s/g in 23-24 then almost 5xd that to 2.8 3s/g and now he's 1.5xd that to 4.2 3s/g.

If you look at his stats, his ppg and overall FG% has dropped significantly over this time period (52-48-45). His efg% is only slightly down.

It's a bit of mixed bag overall: per 36 he's playing at a similar level or better, but per 100 poss he's a bit down. Still, his offensive aggressiveness is showing up more often, and I think if Miami can get that offensive impetus out of him more often, Miami will be much better off for it.

I do wish his 3 point shooting was a bit more consistent because even though 35.7% on his amount of attempts as a big is 'good', if you take out his last 3 games it is only 31.7% and if you take out one other big game of 5/8 vs the Clips it is 29.4%. He has had a couple games where he catches fire but a whole lot of nothing in between.

It is encouraging that the past two seasons his 3 point shot has come on later in the season and the same trend has a chance of starting around now, but I do also worry about him sustaining it.