Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[Rapaz]

Pajama Pat gonna land Lillard Jr.

[MorbidHEAT]

https://allucanheat.com/posts/miami-heat-make-duncan-robinson-untouchable-in-trade-talks

If true, it would be a hell of a change in philosophy. It could mean the writing is on the wall for a Herro trade.

[dshearn]

https://allucanheat.com/posts/miami-heat-make-duncan-robinson-untouchable-in-trade-talks

If true, it would be a hell of a change in philosophy. It could mean the writing is on the wall for a Herro trade.

if it was up to me I would not trade him either....

Something is working with those Bam/love or Bam/Jovic and Duncan line ups.


I am damn high on the future of Bam/Jovic/JJJ/Duncan and somebody at the 1.

People that are stat heads and can find the production of different line-ups...I would love to see what the stats tell us about Bam/love/Duncan and Bam/Jovic/Duncan as far as production goes.

Duncan for all his flaws comes to work hard. Maybe Miami is banking on him being significantly cheaper down the road on his next deal. They got him paid maybe next time the deal is super team friendly.

[carnageta]

I'm confident Herro can turn around the poor finishing. Historically, he has been a great finisher at the rim, outside of this season.

Last year, he shot 70% from 0-2 ft.
The year before that, he shot 69% from 0-2 ft.
The year before that, he shot 67%.

This year is a outlier.. he's only at 47%.

[Wiltside]

I'm confident Herro can turn around the poor finishing. Historically, he has been a great finisher at the rim, outside of this season.

Last year, he shot 70% from 0-2 ft.
The year before that, he shot 69% from 0-2 ft.
The year before that, he shot 67%.

This year is a outlier.. he's only at 47%.

Wild to be 20% below the prior year on paint finishing. The eye test shows it too, he missed a bunch of gimmies yesterday. He’s also taking some bad shots, but that’s also due to the complete lack of offensive creativity we have and the need to have Tyler on ball way more often than we should.

[insfo]

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A real good read on why our offense sucks so bad: see snippet of the article below.

Butler: 38% at the rim, 50% from mid-range, 12% from 3
Adebayo: 35% at the rim, 64% from mid-range, 2% from 3
Herro: 12% at the rim, 47% from mid-range, 41% from 3
Unless the Heat make major changes to their shot chart in the second half of the season, you can forget about another run to the Finals.

Even last season, when the Heat still weren’t a good rim-pressure team, they attempted a greater amount of their shots from 3-point range in the regular season. Their improbable playoff run was fueled by shooting 38% from 3, the highest clip for a Finals team since the Kevin Durant-and-Steph Curry Warriors. It’s unrealistic to expect to catch lightning in a bottle like that again.

Teams need to tilt their offense in one direction or the other – shots at the basket or from beyond the arc. The middle ground is no-man’s land.

Is it a matter of revamping the offense and prioritizing more efficient areas of the court? Hard to say, but none of this will come as news to Erik Spoelstra. There’s a reason he stresses getting up 40 3-pointers a game (even if the Heat rarely do).

This is a personnel problem. The Heat don’t have anyone who gets to the basket for more than five field-goal attempts per game. Adebayo has become reliant on the foul-line jumper and Butler, at 34, can’t be tasked with that kind of workload at this stage of his career.

Can someone explain Bam’s at-the-rim numbers? This can’t be accurate right?

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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A real good read on why our offense sucks so bad: see snippet of the article below.

Butler: 38% at the rim, 50% from mid-range, 12% from 3
Adebayo: 35% at the rim, 64% from mid-range, 2% from 3
Herro: 12% at the rim, 47% from mid-range, 41% from 3
Unless the Heat make major changes to their shot chart in the second half of the season, you can forget about another run to the Finals.

Even last season, when the Heat still weren’t a good rim-pressure team, they attempted a greater amount of their shots from 3-point range in the regular season. Their improbable playoff run was fueled by shooting 38% from 3, the highest clip for a Finals team since the Kevin Durant-and-Steph Curry Warriors. It’s unrealistic to expect to catch lightning in a bottle like that again.

Teams need to tilt their offense in one direction or the other – shots at the basket or from beyond the arc. The middle ground is no-man’s land.

Is it a matter of revamping the offense and prioritizing more efficient areas of the court? Hard to say, but none of this will come as news to Erik Spoelstra. There’s a reason he stresses getting up 40 3-pointers a game (even if the Heat rarely do).

This is a personnel problem. The Heat don’t have anyone who gets to the basket for more than five field-goal attempts per game. Adebayo has become reliant on the foul-line jumper and Butler, at 34, can’t be tasked with that kind of workload at this stage of his career.

Can someone explain Bam’s at-the-rim numbers? This can’t be accurate right?

That’s 38% of his total shots come at the rim not he’s shooting 38% at the rim

[3ammy3uck3ts]

https://allucanheat.com/posts/miami-heat-make-duncan-robinson-untouchable-in-trade-talks

If true, it would be a hell of a change in philosophy. It could mean the writing is on the wall for a Herro trade.

if it was up to me I would not trade him either....

Something is working with those Bam/love or Bam/Jovic and Duncan line ups.


I am damn high on the future of Bam/Jovic/JJJ/Duncan and somebody at the 1.

People that are stat heads and can find the production of different line-ups...I would love to see what the stats tell us about Bam/love/Duncan and Bam/Jovic/Duncan as far as production goes.

Duncan for all his flaws comes to work hard. Maybe Miami is banking on him being significantly cheaper down the road on his next deal. They got him paid maybe next time the deal is super team friendly.

Bam/Jovic/Duncan 120.9 ORTG 94.6 DRTG +26.3 Net Rating

Bam/Love/Duncan 106.5 ORTG 101.4 DRTG +5.1 Net rating

[Flash4thewin]

https://allucanheat.com/posts/miami-heat-make-duncan-robinson-untouchable-in-trade-talks

If true, it would be a hell of a change in philosophy. It could mean the writing is on the wall for a Herro trade.

if it was up to me I would not trade him either....

Something is working with those Bam/love or Bam/Jovic and Duncan line ups.


I am damn high on the future of Bam/Jovic/JJJ/Duncan and somebody at the 1.

People that are stat heads and can find the production of different line-ups...I would love to see what the stats tell us about Bam/love/Duncan and Bam/Jovic/Duncan as far as production goes.

Duncan for all his flaws comes to work hard. Maybe Miami is banking on him being significantly cheaper down the road on his next deal. They got him paid maybe next time the deal is super team friendly.

Just curious but what would make you think Duncan would take a super team friendly deal? He will try to get top dollar like all players should. Remember this is a business not a family. Ironically assuming he continues to play well I expect his next deal to be very similar to his current one at +/- 18 mil a year. Remember the cap is going up and thats not even factoring the new TV deal on the horizon.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

It’s kind of wild seeing the couple trades that have already happened an how certain organizations value assets and their players compared to others.

Like for example, if we sent 3 1sts for Siakam and his expiring contract just hoping he would resign with us I’d be sick but the Pacers had no problem doing that. He also fits their team far better and would’ve been a bad fit here.

Another example, can we say without a doubt Herro is better than RJ and/or Quickley? Like current play as well as potential, because since being traded both of those guys have pretty easily outplayed Herro and whether you lean one way or the other on either of them being better than Herro or not the gap for sure isn’t much. Point being, the Knicks sent both of them out for OG but I bet if you asked the Heat and majority of Heat fans to trade only Herro straight up for OG the overall answer would be no. I would have and then sent out the assets to get Rozier or Murray but that’s besides the point. Just pretty wild to see the difference in my opinion.

[DayofMourning]

Bam/Jovic/Duncan 120.9 ORTG 94.6 DRTG +26.3 Net Rating

Bam/Love/Duncan 106.5 ORTG 101.4 DRTG +5.1 Net rating

You can see it in short bursts, how the top lineup flows well together. Jovic is another guy who just makes **** work. When hes in a flow and he lets his size work for him on D, hes fun to watch.

[VaDe255]

It’s kind of wild seeing the couple trades that have already happened an how certain organizations value assets and their players compared to others.

Like for example, if we sent 3 1sts for Siakam and his expiring contract just hoping he would resign with us I’d be sick but the Pacers had no problem doing that. He also fits their team far better and would’ve been a bad fit here.

Another example, can we say without a doubt Herro is better than RJ and/or Quickley? Like current play as well as potential, because since being traded both of those guys have pretty easily outplayed Herro and whether you lean one way or the other on either of them being better than Herro or not the gap for sure isn’t much. Point being, the Knicks sent both of them out for OG but I bet if you asked the Heat and majority of Heat fans to trade only Herro straight up for OG the overall answer would be no. I would have and then sent out the assets to get Rozier or Murray but that’s besides the point. Just pretty wild to see the difference in my opinion.

Yes, Herro is much better than RJ, this is not even a discussion.

RJ is a negative asset. Quickley's value is around what Herro's value is. I'd rate him a bit higher since Herro is still trying to figure out how to be more effective on offense. Quickley looks like the better playmaker and that is the main difference between him and Herro, but otherwise they are quite similiar players.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

It’s kind of wild seeing the couple trades that have already happened an how certain organizations value assets and their players compared to others.

Like for example, if we sent 3 1sts for Siakam and his expiring contract just hoping he would resign with us I’d be sick but the Pacers had no problem doing that. He also fits their team far better and would’ve been a bad fit here.

Another example, can we say without a doubt Herro is better than RJ and/or Quickley? Like current play as well as potential, because since being traded both of those guys have pretty easily outplayed Herro and whether you lean one way or the other on either of them being better than Herro or not the gap for sure isn’t much. Point being, the Knicks sent both of them out for OG but I bet if you asked the Heat and majority of Heat fans to trade only Herro straight up for OG the overall answer would be no. I would have and then sent out the assets to get Rozier or Murray but that’s besides the point. Just pretty wild to see the difference in my opinion.

Yes, Herro is much better than RJ, this is not even a discussion.

RJ is a negative asset. Quickley's value is around what Herro's value is. I'd rate him a bit higher since Herro is still trying to figure out how to be more effective on offense. Quickley looks like the better playmaker and that is the main difference between him and Herro, but otherwise they are quite similiar players.

What makes Herro far better than RJ? Not even arguing I’m just legit curious. Their play isn’t too far off and RJ looks to be the better playoff performer. Then physical tools/potential wise RJ is bigger at 6’6 215 with a 6’10 wingspan (Herro 6’5 195 6’3 wingspan) and is more athletic. I feel like if you gave Spo RJ he would be viewed a lot different.

I agree with you on Quickley. Would you have traded Herro for OG straight up if the Raptors offered it? Like I said I just think the different viewpoints from fans and organizations is interesting

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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Preaching to the choir brother!!!

[VaDe255]

It’s kind of wild seeing the couple trades that have already happened an how certain organizations value assets and their players compared to others.

Like for example, if we sent 3 1sts for Siakam and his expiring contract just hoping he would resign with us I’d be sick but the Pacers had no problem doing that. He also fits their team far better and would’ve been a bad fit here.

Another example, can we say without a doubt Herro is better than RJ and/or Quickley? Like current play as well as potential, because since being traded both of those guys have pretty easily outplayed Herro and whether you lean one way or the other on either of them being better than Herro or not the gap for sure isn’t much. Point being, the Knicks sent both of them out for OG but I bet if you asked the Heat and majority of Heat fans to trade only Herro straight up for OG the overall answer would be no. I would have and then sent out the assets to get Rozier or Murray but that’s besides the point. Just pretty wild to see the difference in my opinion.

Yes, Herro is much better than RJ, this is not even a discussion.

RJ is a negative asset. Quickley's value is around what Herro's value is. I'd rate him a bit higher since Herro is still trying to figure out how to be more effective on offense. Quickley looks like the better playmaker and that is the main difference between him and Herro, but otherwise they are quite similiar players.

What makes Herro far better than RJ? Not even arguing I’m just legit curious. Their play isn’t too far off and RJ looks to be the better playoff performer. Then physical tools/potential wise RJ is bigger at 6’6 215 with a 6’10 wingspan (Herro 6’5 195 6’3 wingspan) and is more athletic. I feel like if you gave Spo RJ he would be viewed a lot different.

I agree with you on Quickley. Would you have traded Herro for OG straight up if the Raptors offered it? Like I said I just think the different viewpoints from fans and organizations is interesting

RJ is more athletic and is an allround fine player, who doesn't excell at anything. He has a career TS% of 52.2% (Herro is at 55.6%) and his playmaking isn't good either 2.8 asts on 2.1 tos for his career and it isn't improving. He's not particular effective and there is potential for him to to get better, but he's already paid as a starter and he is barely a starter level player.
In the playoff series last year, they dared him to shoot undefended 3s.

Herro has a skill that he is elite at and that is his three-point shooting, that alone and his efficiency as a scorer and playmaker that is about NBA average, just makes him better than RJ and I'm not just looking at a stretch of 20 games.

I don't think an OG trade gets the Heat anywhere, the problem is you already lack good shot creation and OG isn't helping with that one. Also needs to get paid, presumably in the 40m range.

[MettaWorldPanda]

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Good stuff. Maybe in 3 years we can see this from Jovic

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Yes, Herro is much better than RJ, this is not even a discussion.

RJ is a negative asset. Quickley's value is around what Herro's value is. I'd rate him a bit higher since Herro is still trying to figure out how to be more effective on offense. Quickley looks like the better playmaker and that is the main difference between him and Herro, but otherwise they are quite similiar players.

What makes Herro far better than RJ? Not even arguing I’m just legit curious. Their play isn’t too far off and RJ looks to be the better playoff performer. Then physical tools/potential wise RJ is bigger at 6’6 215 with a 6’10 wingspan (Herro 6’5 195 6’3 wingspan) and is more athletic. I feel like if you gave Spo RJ he would be viewed a lot different.

I agree with you on Quickley. Would you have traded Herro for OG straight up if the Raptors offered it? Like I said I just think the different viewpoints from fans and organizations is interesting

RJ is more athletic and is an allround fine player, who doesn't excell at anything. He has a career TS% of 52.2% (Herro is at 55.6%) and his playmaking isn't good either 2.8 asts on 2.1 tos for his career and it isn't improving. He's not particular effective and there is potential for him to to get better, but he's already paid as a starter and he is barely a starter level player.
In the playoff series last year, they dared him to shoot undefended 3s.

Herro has a skill that he is elite at and that is his three-point shooting, that alone and his efficiency as a scorer and playmaker that is about NBA average, just makes him better than RJ and I'm not just looking at a stretch of 20 games.

I don't think an OG trade gets the Heat anywhere, the problem is you already lack good shot creation and OG isn't helping with that one. Also needs to get paid, presumably in the 40m range.

If you knew the follow up move was getting Rozier or Murray to fill a bigger position of need and bring similar (Murray) or better (Rozier) levels of scoring than Herro would your answer change?

Murray/Rozier
Duncan
Jimmy
OG
Bam

That’s what I assumed you and most Heat fans would say but was just curious, because Knicks had no problem trading imo a much better package than just Herro alone for him and Knicks fans seemed to be happy as well. Just think it’s interesting to see the different views

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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Good stuff. Maybe in 3 years we can see this from Jovic

Haha the time is now!!!!

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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