2025-26 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 3.0

[KingDavid]

And what is SUPER promising is he shot .6 3s/g in 23-24 then almost 5xd that to 2.8 3s/g and now he's 1.5xd that to 4.2 3s/g.

If you look at his stats, his ppg and overall FG% has dropped significantly over this time period (52-48-45). His efg% is only slightly down.

It's a bit of mixed bag overall: per 36 he's playing at a similar level or better, but per 100 poss he's a bit down. Still, his offensive aggressiveness is showing up more often, and I think if Miami can get that offensive impetus out of him more often, Miami will be much better off for it.

When KJ drives and sprays aka kick out to shooters, he's really good. Also took really good care of the ball, no turnovers as a starting rookie PG vs okc is nice to see. He takes it very seriously which we can all appreciate. And he has a really nice stroke and smooth release, his 3pt shot is real. Ofc cant expect him to shoot 46% consistently, but I see no reason why he cant be a career 38-40% type shooter which is NICE. His FT % being in the 90s is also a strong correlater that his 3pt shot is real. And he's good on defense or at least hustles and plays hard.

His faults as of now are too many fouls and trying to do too much on defense (learning curve ofc), and by far his biggest issue is when he drives to score. I dont know if hes timid or doesnt trust his mid-range game. But he has very little finishing touch on drives to the basket. Looks out of control like hes forcing it. And I havent seen him shoot a single fadeaway or little step back jumper which I felt was there for him often yesterday. So offensively he's somewhat limited but as a 19 yo rookie i cant help but be super bullish on this kid long term.

Kj is struggling around the rim due to a lack of athleticism. Its the same thing that happened to podz.

He will need to get crafty or develop a floater game. I dont think he'll ever really improve his athleticism or quickness, but he is smart enough to develop a counter. The biggest benefit he has as a pg right now is his size and frame to add more muscle. His confidence in his 3 ball also looks promising as a set shooter.

The lack of athleticism is troubling. We keep calling him Dragic, but Dragic was more athletic from what I can remember from his tenure on the suns.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Crazy that Bam's 3 point % after this last game has him shooting 35.7% from 3 on the year, which is the exact same % as the last two years.

Unrelated, but Kasparas is shooting 45.7% from three, on decent volume making exactly one three a game (16 threes in 16 games), while only playing 14.6 mins per game. But then he is shooting 12.5% on two point shots, and is now 3/24. He is also shooting 92.9% from free throws.

And what is SUPER promising is he shot .6 3s/g in 23-24 then almost 5xd that to 2.8 3s/g and now he's 1.5xd that to 4.2 3s/g.

If you look at his stats, his ppg and overall FG% has dropped significantly over this time period (52-48-45). His efg% is only slightly down.

It's a bit of mixed bag overall: per 36 he's playing at a similar level or better, but per 100 poss he's a bit down. Still, his offensive aggressiveness is showing up more often, and I think if Miami can get that offensive impetus out of him more often, Miami will be much better off for it.

I do wish his 3 point shooting was a bit more consistent because even though 35.7% on his amount of attempts as a big is 'good', if you take out his last 3 games it is only 31.7% and if you take out one other big game of 5/8 vs the Clips it is 29.4%. He has had a couple games where he catches fire but a whole lot of nothing in between.

It is encouraging that the past two seasons his 3 point shot has come on later in the season and the same trend has a chance of starting around now, but I do also worry about him sustaining it.

On the other hand if you take out the games he played with a hurt back/lower body it’s closer to 40% or above. It all evens out in the end

[KingDavid]

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I'm not surprised about another injury, I'm actually surprised so many of you all want him & AD here as if they're not glass cannons

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[Beenie]

My 2 biggest concerns with Kas was his turnover problem in college and that he gave me the impression that he might be a shrinker in clutch time. So far, he’s managed to pacify those concerns for me.

His play has been encouraging indeed

[3ammy3uck3ts]

My spreadsheet still has a few rows left, he'll likely be fine

Regression to the mean isn't a suggestion, it's a mathematical inevitability
I’m fine to wait for the data and see how it plays out, but you apparently have a crystal ball and already know exactly who some players are and always will be

I love advanced stats too but I’m curious, from the perspective of someone who only understands the numbers and thinks they’re absolute, catch all context, and nothing else matters…..do you think you know more about the game of basketball than someone like a Phil Jackson, Popovich, etc? Because I’d be shocked if they know DARKO LEBRON or EPM

That's why they have a staff. The data they have access to we [the general public] contractually can't acquire;

NBA teams use specialized analytics companies to access detailed data and proprietary tools that are not available to the general public. Key providers of these exclusive statistics and platforms include:

Second Spectrum: The current official optical tracking provider of the NBA, Second Spectrum software uses in-arena cameras to track the movements of every player and the ball 25 times per second. This technology provides highly granular data used by teams for strategic analysis and player development that goes beyond basic box scores.

Synergy Sports Technology (part of the Atrium Sports group): This company provides detailed video and data logging for countless games, including college and international leagues, which is vital for draft preparation and opponent scouting. Their tools resemble the detailed scouting reports teams use internally and provide specific, logged plays for analysis.

Stats Perform (formerly STATS LLC): Previously the official player tracking partner with its SportVU system, Stats Perform continues to be a major sports data and analysis company that supplies statistical material and analytical tools to professional leagues and teams.

KINEXON Sports: Nearly every NBA team uses KINEXON for data insights, which focuses on elite athlete tracking and performance data.

Teamworks Intelligence (formerly Zelus Analytics): This company provides AI-powered insights and advanced machine learning models for roster construction, player evaluation, and game strategy to elite teams.

While websites like nba.com and Basketball Reference offer a wealth of data to fans, the proprietary tools and raw tracking data from companies like Second Spectrum, Synergy, and KINEXON allow NBA front offices and coaching staffs to perform much deeper, more customized analyses that remain largely internal.

For sure; there’s definitely a place for them I use them all the time myself. I was just curious from the perspective of someone who only uses numbers to come to their conclusion on something

[twix2500]

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Its amazing how bleacher report has existed this long. A site that basically survived off creating top ten list and fake trade ideas.

[greg4012]

Crazy that Bam's 3 point % after this last game has him shooting 35.7% from 3 on the year, which is the exact same % as the last two years.

Unrelated, but Kasparas is shooting 45.7% from three, on decent volume making exactly one three a game (16 threes in 16 games), while only playing 14.6 mins per game. But then he is shooting 12.5% on two point shots, and is now 3/24. He is also shooting 92.9% from free throws.

And what is SUPER promising is he shot .6 3s/g in 23-24 then almost 5xd that to 2.8 3s/g and now he's 1.5xd that to 4.2 3s/g.

If you look at his stats, his ppg and overall FG% has dropped significantly over this time period (52-48-45). His efg% is only slightly down.

It's a bit of mixed bag overall: per 36 he's playing at a similar level or better, but per 100 poss he's a bit down. Still, his offensive aggressiveness is showing up more often, and I think if Miami can get that offensive impetus out of him more often, Miami will be much better off for it.

I do wish his 3 point shooting was a bit more consistent because even though 35.7% on his amount of attempts as a big is 'good', if you take out his last 3 games it is only 31.7% and if you take out one other big game of 5/8 vs the Clips it is 29.4%. He has had a couple games where he catches fire but a whole lot of nothing in between.

It is encouraging that the past two seasons his 3 point shot has come on later in the season and the same trend has a chance of starting around now, but I do also worry about him sustaining it.

What happens if you take out the same amount of his worst shooting games?

[KingDavid]

Kind of wild to me that we have a a legitimate shot at giannis? Or is that us heat fans are under a collective mass delusion. I feel like a lot has to happen for that to happen.... Mke and Giannis both would have to find a trade to miami palatable. Herro, Ware and Jaquez + pics are probably our best offer. We'd probably have to get a frp for wiggins too. It's a lot to ask for.

I've been quiet about it but it smells like massive delusion to me. Milwaukee is very unlikely to rush trading a franchise cornerstone during the season when it costs them nothing to wait for better packages than what we can offer come the off-season. Giannis needs to be traded before the deadline to get his max money if traded to another team. That's not a concern for the bucks; he can get his max money if he stays with them and they don't owe him otherwise. If he wants to leave, he's going to make less money on his max and the bucks will look for the best offer from his group of preferred teams. They emptied the cupboard for Lillard & failed so now the next team will have to do the same to acquire his services from them.

I would be shocked if Giannis is moved before the deadline; that would be a massive favor to Giannis while being terrible for the bucks (our best offer honestly sucks for a superstar like Giannis). Bucks need picks: lots of picks and quick. Ware, KJ, Wiggins, 3j, Rozier, & all of our picks. Idk if that math works, but that's akin to what they're likely looking for (they can flip these guys for picks)

[KingDavid]

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Nope, not interested in trading Bam. But if we were, it's because we're tanking. In that case, we can get better picks from other teams. Bam on the Celtics is sprinting to the finals every damn year.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[TroubleS0me]

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[Vertical Limit]

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2 firsts (assuming no Protections) and a swap sounds good…

BUT.. it is the Boston Celtics. So my offer is nothing. **** the Celtics.

[Hoops3355]

Crazy that Bam's 3 point % after this last game has him shooting 35.7% from 3 on the year, which is the exact same % as the last two years.

Unrelated, but Kasparas is shooting 45.7% from three, on decent volume making exactly one three a game (16 threes in 16 games), while only playing 14.6 mins per game. But then he is shooting 12.5% on two point shots, and is now 3/24. He is also shooting 92.9% from free throws.

And what is SUPER promising is he shot .6 3s/g in 23-24 then almost 5xd that to 2.8 3s/g and now he's 1.5xd that to 4.2 3s/g.

If you look at his stats, his ppg and overall FG% has dropped significantly over this time period (52-48-45). His efg% is only slightly down.

It's a bit of mixed bag overall: per 36 he's playing at a similar level or better, but per 100 poss he's a bit down. Still, his offensive aggressiveness is showing up more often, and I think if Miami can get that offensive impetus out of him more often, Miami will be much better off for it.

When KJ drives and sprays aka kick out to shooters, he's really good. Also took really good care of the ball, no turnovers as a starting rookie PG vs okc is nice to see. He takes it very seriously which we can all appreciate. And he has a really nice stroke and smooth release, his 3pt shot is real. Ofc cant expect him to shoot 46% consistently, but I see no reason why he cant be a career 38-40% type shooter which is NICE. His FT % being in the 90s is also a strong correlater that his 3pt shot is real. And he's good on defense or at least hustles and plays hard.

His faults as of now are too many fouls and trying to do too much on defense (learning curve ofc), and by far his biggest issue is when he drives to score. I dont know if hes timid or doesnt trust his mid-range game. But he has very little finishing touch on drives to the basket. Looks out of control like hes forcing it. And I havent seen him shoot a single fadeaway or little step back jumper which I felt was there for him often yesterday. So offensively he's somewhat limited but as a 19 yo rookie i cant help but be super bullish on this kid long term.

Welcome. Yeah I was amped about getting his in the summer threads. He was a legit gift to drop the way he did because his shooting was always solid from a mechanical standpoint. He just hurt his arm in January of his college season and it was derailed his % a bit. UCLA and Wisconsin games are good examples of what he should look like at the NBA level.

The paint stuff doesn’t surprise me though. He’s gonna have to get stronger but his frame looks good.

Great Rookie season so far for me given how hard it is to transition to the NBA in that position and dealing with Emo Spo.

[MettaWorldPanda]

We had the chance to steal Morant only if we gave the Grizz a fair offer instead of continuing our used car salesman schtick. Rozier and Simone offer lol.

[Wiltside]

We had the chance to steal Morant only if we gave the Grizz a fair offer instead of continuing our used car salesman schtick. Rozier and Simone offer lol.

Sure not sounding like anything is happening there...but Vegas with the 90% odds still raises eyebrows.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

We had the chance to steal Morant only if we gave the Grizz a fair offer instead of continuing our used car salesman schtick. Rozier and Simone offer lol.

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This dude is a top 10 passer in the league, at worst.

[MettaWorldPanda]

We had the chance to steal Morant only if we gave the Grizz a fair offer instead of continuing our used car salesman schtick. Rozier and Simone offer lol.

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This dude is a top 10 passer in the league, at worst.

We missed a legit window to get him for a fair offer but our FO and media was insufferable yet again trying to back them into a corner.

[Wiltside]

We had the chance to steal Morant only if we gave the Grizz a fair offer instead of continuing our used car salesman schtick. Rozier and Simone offer lol.

Read on Twitter

This dude is a top 10 passer in the league, at worst.

We missed a legit window to get him for a fair offer but our FO and media was insufferable yet again trying to back them into a corner.

Ready for the 2026 version of "they like their team"

[MettaWorldPanda]

We had the chance to steal Morant only if we gave the Grizz a fair offer instead of continuing our used car salesman schtick. Rozier and Simone offer lol.

Sure not sounding like anything is happening there...but Vegas with the 90% odds still raises eyebrows.

That’s old news now with Morant and the Grizz patching things up.