Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 3

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Ethan just said on his pregame podcast with Greg that someone in the organization told him zero percent Dragic comes back. They like Gabe and feel good about Oladipo’s progress.

Well that’s dumb, let him go to a rival team while we rely on an unproven player on the playoffs. Let’s hope we get all star Dipo.

Dragic might be getting a decent contract from someone

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Like post buyout? Definitely not.

[MorbidHEAT]

Ethan just said on his pregame podcast with Greg that someone in the organization told him zero percent Dragic comes back. They like Gabe and feel good about Oladipo’s progress.

Well that’s dumb, let him go to a rival team while we rely on an unproven player on the playoffs. Let’s hope we get all star Dipo.

Dragic might be getting a decent contract from someone

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If he gets a decent contract from someone after a buyout, which I doubt, more power to him...I don't blame him or the team. If he is had for the minimum and he goes to a team we meet in the playoffs, it will have been a stupid move not to get him. We shall see.

I have very slowly jumped more and more on the Gabe Vincent's train. However, to be clear, for a deep playoff run i would def trust Dragic much more. Actually for anything other than youth, speed, and athleticism, I trust Dragic more. Just stupid overall not to try to get him if he's interested. Waive Kyle Guy to make space for him if you don't want to pick up a 15th and want to give Highsmith a chance.

[twix2500]

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[AirP.]

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One would think if they were good as that number maybe Spoelstra would run that lineup at the end of games.

The number is that way because when Robinson is on it really helps but when he's off his minutes are cut.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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Season over?

[twix2500]

Happy to see the Heat finally got 3 playoff intensity games and came out 2-1. They needs these battles for growth. Hopefully you see Bam, Butler and Lowry go into the film room and come up with ways to counter how they been defended.

I would like to see more plays by Spo for Butler that will get him a variety of different midrange looks like the one Butler hit in OT. Versatility in the schemes will help this team reach its potential.

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[greg4012]

Happy to see the Heat finally got 3 playoff intensity games and came out 2-1. They needs these battles for growth. Hopefully you see Bam, Butler and Lowry go into the film room and come up with ways to counter how they been defended.

I would like to see more plays by Spo for Butler that will get him a variety of different midrange looks like the one Butler hit in OT. Versatility in the schemes will help this team reach its potential.

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Really feel like we're starting to get an increased look at the Lowry play we'll see in the playoffs. Of course, he won't lead the charge scoring every game. But, it seems he's getting into his rhythm shooting and we're seeing an uptick in strategic advantage hunting by him lately.

[twix2500]

Happy to see the Heat finally got 3 playoff intensity games and came out 2-1. They needs these battles for growth. Hopefully you see Bam, Butler and Lowry go into the film room and come up with ways to counter how they been defended.

I would like to see more plays by Spo for Butler that will get him a variety of different midrange looks like the one Butler hit in OT. Versatility in the schemes will help this team reach its potential.

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Really feel like we're starting to get an increased look at the Lowry play we'll see in the playoffs. Of course, he won't lead the charge scoring every game. But, it seems he's getting into his rhythm shooting and we're seeing an uptick in strategic advantage hunting by him lately.

Yes yes yes. He is learning how to incorporate himself into the game now. This is why we need these guys back during this stretch so they can learn how to play with each other when opponents are locked in themselves to make a playoff push.

And its helpful Tyler is out for a bit so they can all get their shots.

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[twix2500]

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Looks at the GRAVITY Robinson gets. Rather you appreciate his game or not, opponents do.

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[greg4012]

Lately we've been increasingly seeing the Heat offense get completely stifled over the course of the game as teams start crowding the 3 point line to the point that they don't let our guys get to their spots to run perimeter sets. The issue is that we're not routinely making them pay with paint penetration.

Our paint penetration right now is just when we give Bam looks in the paint (usually 1 on 1) and Jimmy getting into the paint and often jump-stopping (or keeping his dribble and stopping) to assess and find an angle. I appreciate Jimmy's patience in the paint to find a look or draw a foul. But, neither Jimmy or Bam are routinely bending the defense with their paint penetration. When we settle in the paint rather than leverage beating a defender into the paint, it allows the defense to recover and stay tight on their guys.

While Tyler is far from a slasher, he actually does a decent job of getting a step on his man to get into the paint from time to time and taking a definitive action on the fly, which gives our perimeter players a little more space and potentially a step on their defender. Getting him back will help a little with this issue.

I really hope Oladipo can be a dose of paint penetration for us when he gets some minutes. Oladipo of old is an amazing slasher.

We just really need to be able to punish teams for overcrowding our perimeter actions.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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Lowry the closer?! I think Jimmy will put it together soon too.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Great game last night from Duncan. This upcoming stretch is huge for him. If he comes out of the break a brick house for the rest of the season and playoffs I only want to see him on the Heat court one time next season and that’s when him and Herro visit from Utah.

[AirP.]

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Looks at the GRAVITY Robinson gets. Rather you appreciate his game or not, opponents do.

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It's an inbound play on the side of the basket, everyone gets covered like that.

What's not talked about his "gravity" is that when he has the ball a defender can play as tight as they want on him because they don't fear him getting past him and attacking the basket.

Duncan does have "gravity" in the offense, but so does really any 3pt shooter and if a 3pt shooter doesn't have much gravity that should help the offense by giving that 3pt shooter more open looks.

The thing Duncan has over the other 3pt shooters on the team is that he's good at working with screens to help tire defenders later in the game while a guy like Strus is able to find seams open spots vs working screens as much to be available for passes and shots. I personally would go with Strus but understand the thought of going with Duncan, especially with Spoelstra having such a strong voice in his development to get him into the starting lineup 3 seasons ago.

[AirP.]

Great game last night from Duncan. This upcoming stretch is huge for him. If he comes out of the break a brick house for the rest of the season and playoffs I only want to see him on the Heat court one time next season and that’s when him and Herro visit from Utah.

His issues have been at home, not on the road. His road TS% is .581(higher then Bam, lower then Butler) which is solid, his home TS% is .544 would be the 2nd worst TS% in Miami's regular rotation only above Herro.

[AirP.]

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Lowry the closer?! I think Jimmy will put it together soon too.

This number doesn't take a few data points in consideration as in TOs in the clutch which is basically a missed shot/lost possession.

Lowry should be shooting more, especially open 3s but the clutch shots are difficult to analyze, Butler is usually just generating one on one shots which limit TOs and limits the other team time to have 1 more play, Herro is a mix of creating his own shot and some catch and shoot situations and Lowry is probably mostly catch and shoot in those situation with some creation.

We're really limited to what stats we get to see, for instance Herro, his shooting is better then what his stats say since he seems to be the one heaving up last second highly unlikely shots from near full court or outside what you expect to be shot in normal circumstances.

[AirP.]

BTW, Butler taking 3s is a good thing currently(he seems to look for a 3 early in the game), it would indicate he's actually working on his 3pt shot which would help him be a more rounded player and help his teammates by giving them another target that will actually shoot the ball from 3. Now if he's shooting 3s in the playoffs this year with bad results, obviously he'll need to limit those shots. At some point Butler needs to get back to being an average 3pt shooter which he once was before leaving Minnesota.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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Lowry the closer?! I think Jimmy will put it together soon too.

This number doesn't take a few data points in consideration as in TOs in the clutch which is basically a missed shot/lost possession.

Lowry should be shooting more, especially open 3s but the clutch shots are difficult to analyze, Butler is usually just generating one on one shots which limit TOs and limits the other team time to have 1 more play, Herro is a mix of creating his own shot and some catch and shoot situations and Lowry is probably mostly catch and shoot in those situation with some creation.

We're really limited to what stats we get to see, for instance Herro, his shooting is better then what his stats say since he seems to be the one heaving up last second highly unlikely shots from near full court or outside what you expect to be shot in normal circumstances.

These are shots in the clutch, last 5 minutes of the game with the game within 5. Not chucking up shots at the end of the quarter.

Lowrys scoring I’ve seen in the clutch has almost specifically been him creating for himself.

[AirP.]

These are shots in the clutch, last 5 minutes of the game with the game within 5. Not chucking up shots at the end of the quarter.

Lowrys scoring I’ve seen in the clutch has almost specifically been him creating for himself.

You're right about how it's defined, I had forgotten NBA.com had that so I went and looked at a different stat, clutch +/- which is both sides of the court which basically told me what I thought about most Miami players in the clutch.



The image is kind of hard to see, here's the text...

Spoiler:

Name, +/-, (average clutch min a game)games with clutch minutes

Caleb Martin +43.8 (1.3)15
Max Strus +27.1 (2.1)11
Jimmy Butler +6.2 (4.1)18
Gabe Vincent +1.3 (2.5)15
P.J. Tucker +.8 (3.7)22
Kyle Lowry +.6 (3.4)18
Duncan Robinson -1.1 (3.5)12
Bam Adebayo -6.1 (-4.0)18
Tyler Herro -8.4 (4.1) 16

[al bondiga]

Happy to see the Heat finally got 3 playoff intensity games and came out 2-1. They needs these battles for growth. Hopefully you see Bam, Butler and Lowry go into the film room and come up with ways to counter how they been defended.

I would like to see more plays by Spo for Butler that will get him a variety of different midrange looks like the one Butler hit in OT. Versatility in the schemes will help this team reach its potential.

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Hope you're right!!!

I just keep getting the feeling that something is essentially wrong with some of the aproaches used by spo

[dshearn]

BTW, Butler taking 3s is a good thing currently(he seems to look for a 3 early in the game), it would indicate he's actually working on his 3pt shot which would help him be a more rounded player and help his teammates by giving them another target that will actually shoot the ball from 3. Now if he's shooting 3s in the playoffs this year with bad results, obviously he'll need to limit those shots. At some point Butler needs to get back to being an average 3pt shooter which he once was before leaving Minnesota.

That is a good sign,

I do really hate late game when the penetration is hard to find.... Butler sometimes dribbles the clock out then takes a desperation 3 pointer.

The truth is, almost anyone else would be better at taking what is basically a terrible shot.

I am hoping for post all-star break, we see the end to half court passes, and overly complex passes under the basket when the team is trying to protect a lead late in the game. I would guess add in Butler late in the clock 3 pointers. Even highly contested dribble hand offs would be a better bet.