Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 2.0

[Beenie]

Spoiler:

https://www.spotrac.com/news/initial-2024-nba-cap-space-and-spending-power-projections-1989

So next year the tax line is basically the 2nd apron line this year, so keep that in mind.

Butler 48
Bam 33
Herro 29
Duncan 19
That's 129 million for 4 players.

Now let's look at the rest of contracts expected contracts.
Jaquez Jr. 4
Bryant 3
Jovic 3
O.Robinson 2
Love 4 million (player option)

Now you're at 145 million for 9 players so as of now Miami won't be looking at free agents and are ~28 million away from the tax line without having Martin and Richardson resigned (both have low player options) nor the ~13 million MLE they could use. So as you can see, a Lowry trade with salary coming back past this year is probably not happening unless more future salary is going out somewhere else.

Next year... Butler, Bam, Jaquez Jr, Herro, Robinson, Jovic, Bryant and Love with nothing else really, no real starting or backup PG, a question mark at PF although Jovic and Jaquez Jr could be eating up minutes there. So, Miami is needing to fill these positions and possibly upgrade for less than 28 mil with the current projection of the rotation.

I'm very weary of Robinson's hot start, his scouting report/player's opinions on how to play him haven't changed yet but by the time the playoffs come around how he's defended could be entirely different. I get he may just be this way from now on but I wouldn't count on it myself and would try to upgrade his spot if given the chance to move him in a package.

If they believe Swider is the next Duncan/Strus clone then moving Duncan makes sense.

Without an off ball sharpshooter on the team, I don’t see Duncan as being expendable.

You can find 3pt specialist which would help your team more by saving a ton of money and having a spot up shooter. For me, having a choice between Robinson at 19 million or say paying a guy like M.Beasley near the minimum or let's go a little crazy, go up to near the MLE at 13 million, I'm going with the cheaper option, saving at least 6 million a year for your sharpshooter which could be utilized elsewhere on the roster, for example, being able to retain Martin next season if you really like him.

Right now, Robinson is making close to 19 mil a year, this quite possibly new level he's playing at is where he needs to continue to play at to make his salary not a negative but if scouting reports change or someone figures out how to slow him up he'll be back to being a negative contract on the roster. If I can move him in some package for a player I want and have more faith in I'm making that move and trying to find another cheaper 3pt shooter to replace him.

I’m all for finding value contracts particularly for specialist roles.

But it seems you are lookin towards the offseason for a replacement.

If trading Duncan now in the hypothetical DFS deal as an example or any other deal means that the team is without an off ball 3 point specialist for the remainder of the year then I wouldn’t expect the team to execute such a deal.

[AirP.]

Duncan’s scouting report has always been the same, if they decide to play him on the drive more than great he’ll get more open 3s lol

Lol? He shot under 33% from 3pt range all last year, the year before he shot 37% and during this 5 year 90 million dollar contract of his he not only lost his starting role to a 2-way player/minimum contract guy, but he also fell completely out of the lineup from time to time.

I have no issue saying there's a chance that this nearly 30 year old one trick pony who has worked on other aspects of his game is a better all around player which we can see that it is somewhat better, but what if he's just gotten onto a hot combined with defenses still not worrying about him doing anything else other than just shoot 3s which will absolutely change by and during the playoffs.

It's like this hot start for him has completely erased everyone's memories of what he's been for the last couple of years.

[AirP.]

If they believe Swider is the next Duncan/Strus clone then moving Duncan makes sense.

Without an off ball sharpshooter on the team, I don’t see Duncan as being expendable.

You can find 3pt specialist which would help your team more by saving a ton of money and having a spot up shooter. For me, having a choice between Robinson at 19 million or say paying a guy like M.Beasley near the minimum or let's go a little crazy, go up to near the MLE at 13 million, I'm going with the cheaper option, saving at least 6 million a year for your sharpshooter which could be utilized elsewhere on the roster, for example, being able to retain Martin next season if you really like him.

Right now, Robinson is making close to 19 mil a year, this quite possibly new level he's playing at is where he needs to continue to play at to make his salary not a negative but if scouting reports change or someone figures out how to slow him up he'll be back to being a negative contract on the roster. If I can move him in some package for a player I want and have more faith in I'm making that move and trying to find another cheaper 3pt shooter to replace him.

I’m all for finding value contracts particularly for specialist roles.

But it seems you are lookin towards the offseason for a replacement.

If trading Duncan now in the hypothetical DFS deal as an example or any other deal means that the team is without an off ball 3 point specialist for the remainder of the year then I wouldn’t expect the team to execute such a deal.

Why look at a player with that much future salary for the next couple of years if you're not making at least 1 additional move to get off some future salary? To just be looking at DFS means as a FO you have to have some sort of plan for the future financials of this team.

[AirP.]

The Miami stats with NetRating as a calculated ORTG-DRTG. It's early on but after 18 games Jaquez Jr is a plus in the NetRating which isn't that normal of a situation with a rookie. Butler and Bam are below their norms in the NetRating department.

Code: Select all

+-----------------+-----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+---+---+---+----+----+---------+
|Player           |Games|MPG |TS%  |2pt% |3pt% |Pts |Ast|Reb |Stl|Blk|TO |ORTG|DRTG|NetRating|
+-----------------+-----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+---+---+---+----+----+---------+
|Orlando Robinson |4    |15  |0.633|0.5  |1    |6.3 |2.3|4.3 |0.5|0.8|1.3|120 |109 |11       |
|Jimmy Butler     |14   |33.3|0.6  |0.474|0.415|20.7|4  |5   |1.4|0.6|1.7|124 |113 |11       |
|Kyle Lowry       |17   |29.6|0.626|0.421|0.457|9.4 |4.5|4.1 |1.4|0.2|1.5|123 |112 |11       |
|Bam Adebayo      |15   |34.9|0.597|0.531|0.333|23.3|4  |10.3|1.3|1.1|2.6|117 |109 |8        |
|Dru Smith        |9    |14.6|0.576|0.5  |0.412|4.3 |1.6|1.6 |1  |0.3|0.6|118 |110 |8        |
|Duncan Robinson  |16   |29.5|0.636|0.569|0.43 |14.4|2.8|2.7 |0.3|0.2|0.9|122 |117 |5        |
|Kevin Love       |12   |17.7|0.519|0.478|0.309|7.6 |2  |6.8 |0.1|0  |0.7|114 |111 |3        |
|Jaime Jaquez Jr. |18   |26.2|0.605|0.59 |0.393|11.3|2.6|3.8 |1.1|0.2|1.4|115 |113 |2        |
|Nikola Jović     |3    |15  |0.549|0.2  |0.5  |4.7 |3  |7   |0.3|0  |1.3|107 |106 |1        |
|Haywood Highsmith|13   |24.3|0.561|0.563|0.34 |7.3 |1.7|3.1 |1.3|0.8|1  |109 |110 |-1       |
|Cole Swider      |3    |9.7 |0.571|0.667|0.364|5.3 |1  |0.3 |0.3|0.3|0.3|111 |114 |-3       |
|Josh Richardson  |15   |27.7|0.536|0.567|0.292|9.6 |3.1|2.6 |0.7|0.3|1.1|111 |116 |-5       |
|Tyler Herro      |8    |34  |0.561|0.473|0.41 |22.9|4.6|5   |1.4|0  |2.5|107 |113 |-6       |
|Thomas Bryant    |12   |13.5|0.537|0.52 |0    |5.3 |0.6|3.8 |0.5|0.3|1  |100 |110 |-10      |
|Jamal Cain       |5    |14  |0.521|0.75 |0.222|4   |0  |1.8 |0.8|0  |0.4|99  |112 |-13      |
|Caleb Martin     |8    |21.1|0.451|0.432|0.286|8.4 |1.4|3   |1  |0  |0.6|97  |113 |-16      |
|R.J. Hampton     |1    |2   |0    |0    |0    |0   |0  |0   |0  |0  |0  |0   |121 |-121     |
+-----------------+-----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+---+---+---+----+----+---------+

[AirP.]

Just happened to see this on NBA.com, the most improved shooters this year. I wonder how many will still be on this list by the end of the year.

Duncan Robinson, one of the most dangerous 3-point shooters of the last five seasons, has seen a big jump in effective field goal percentage with a big drop in 3-point rate. In 16 games, he’s already made eight more 2-pointers (33) than he did all of last season (25). Of course, he’s also shot 43% from deep, a big recovery from a rough shooting season (32.8%) in ’22-23.

https://www.nba.com/news/nba-storylines-10-most-improved-shooters-so-far

[Beenie]

You can find 3pt specialist which would help your team more by saving a ton of money and having a spot up shooter. For me, having a choice between Robinson at 19 million or say paying a guy like M.Beasley near the minimum or let's go a little crazy, go up to near the MLE at 13 million, I'm going with the cheaper option, saving at least 6 million a year for your sharpshooter which could be utilized elsewhere on the roster, for example, being able to retain Martin next season if you really like him.

Right now, Robinson is making close to 19 mil a year, this quite possibly new level he's playing at is where he needs to continue to play at to make his salary not a negative but if scouting reports change or someone figures out how to slow him up he'll be back to being a negative contract on the roster. If I can move him in some package for a player I want and have more faith in I'm making that move and trying to find another cheaper 3pt shooter to replace him.

I’m all for finding value contracts particularly for specialist roles.

But it seems you are lookin towards the offseason for a replacement.

If trading Duncan now in the hypothetical DFS deal as an example or any other deal means that the team is without an off ball 3 point specialist for the remainder of the year then I wouldn’t expect the team to execute such a deal.

Why look at a player with that much future salary for the next couple of years if you're not making at least 1 additional move to get off some future salary? To just be looking at DFS means as a FO you have to have some sort of plan for the future financials of this team.

DFS is distraction to the point I was attempting to make.

Do you advocate moving off of Duncan in the middle of this season if it meant that there would be a void in off ball 3 point shooting for the remainder of the season?

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Duncan’s scouting report has always been the same, if they decide to play him on the drive more than great he’ll get more open 3s lol

Lol? He shot under 33% from 3pt range all last year, the year before he shot 37% and during this 5 year 90 million dollar contract of his he not only lost his starting role to a 2-way player/minimum contract guy, but he also fell completely out of the lineup from time to time.

I have no issue saying there's a chance that this nearly 30 year old one trick pony who has worked on other aspects of his game is a better all around player which we can see that it is somewhat better, but what if he's just gotten onto a hot combined with defenses still not worrying about him doing anything else other than just shoot 3s which will absolutely change by and during the playoffs.

It's like this hot start for him has completely erased everyone's memories of what he's been for the last couple of years.

Yes lol you’re blaming his good play on scouting reports, they are basically the same and will stay basically the same for the rest of his career

[gom]

Some of you are forgetting that Robinson was injured last season and had to play because we had so few available players. It is true that shooters need to play to get into rhythm. Last season before getting injured Brady Hawk said that Robinson was the most improved player in camp.

[contract]

I don't get the DFS thing. The guy has been starting and playing > 30 mpg for years now, and not doing much with those minutes.

[Wiltside]

Just find a way to get Caruso. I really think he’d be a bit addition for us from an impact standpoint.

[dshearn]

Duncan’s scouting report has always been the same, if they decide to play him on the drive more than great he’ll get more open 3s lol

Lol? He shot under 33% from 3pt range all last year, the year before he shot 37% and during this 5 year 90 million dollar contract of his he not only lost his starting role to a 2-way player/minimum contract guy, but he also fell completely out of the lineup from time to time.

I have no issue saying there's a chance that this nearly 30 year old one trick pony who has worked on other aspects of his game is a better all around player which we can see that it is somewhat better, but what if he's just gotten onto a hot combined with defenses still not worrying about him doing anything else other than just shoot 3s which will absolutely change by and during the playoffs.

It's like this hot start for him has completely erased everyone's memories of what he's been for the last couple of years.

what ever is going on with Duncan, he seemed to clear it up at least to a degree by the playoffs.

That probably plays into what people remember.


Of course there is production, then there is mentality.... I think people are seeing this version of Duncan is just different than last year. He has a different mentality. The stuff he is doing, and attempting to do...is just different.

I am sure we will have times his shot is just not landing, it happened to every 3 point shooter I have seen. I think what is different then years past is Duncan can effect the game in more ways now then before.

Anyway....this team looks a ton better with guys that will move on offense. I hate the sit around and wait for someone to do something offense. I always respected the fact that Duncan will move on offense and flys around making people move. To me that is the best part of Duncan's game. His new found assists, cutting stuff is great too...but I like the fact the dude will stay in motion.

[AirP.]

Duncan’s scouting report has always been the same, if they decide to play him on the drive more than great he’ll get more open 3s lol

Lol? He shot under 33% from 3pt range all last year, the year before he shot 37% and during this 5 year 90 million dollar contract of his he not only lost his starting role to a 2-way player/minimum contract guy, but he also fell completely out of the lineup from time to time.

I have no issue saying there's a chance that this nearly 30 year old one trick pony who has worked on other aspects of his game is a better all around player which we can see that it is somewhat better, but what if he's just gotten onto a hot combined with defenses still not worrying about him doing anything else other than just shoot 3s which will absolutely change by and during the playoffs.

It's like this hot start for him has completely erased everyone's memories of what he's been for the last couple of years.

Yes lol you’re blaming his good play on scouting reports, they are basically the same and will stay basically the same for the rest of his career

No, he's worked on his other aspects of his game and I'm saying it's possible he's not being defended correctly much like his first big year in Miami when he was just a 3pt shooter. I do find it hard to believe that this particular player has just transformed from what he was into a very diverse scorer at the NBA level at age 29.

He's a great 3pt shooter but has confidence issues, but now that's all behind him? Maybe but I have my doubts.

[KingDavid]

Lol? He shot under 33% from 3pt range all last year, the year before he shot 37% and during this 5 year 90 million dollar contract of his he not only lost his starting role to a 2-way player/minimum contract guy, but he also fell completely out of the lineup from time to time.

I have no issue saying there's a chance that this nearly 30 year old one trick pony who has worked on other aspects of his game is a better all around player which we can see that it is somewhat better, but what if he's just gotten onto a hot combined with defenses still not worrying about him doing anything else other than just shoot 3s which will absolutely change by and during the playoffs.

It's like this hot start for him has completely erased everyone's memories of what he's been for the last couple of years.

Yes lol you’re blaming his good play on scouting reports, they are basically the same and will stay basically the same for the rest of his career

No, he's worked on his other aspects of his game and I'm saying it's possible he's not being defended correctly much like his first big year in Miami when he was just a 3pt shooter. I do find it hard to believe that this particular player has just transformed from what he was into a very diverse scorer at the NBA level at age 29.

He's a great 3pt shooter but has confidence issues, but now that's all behind him? Maybe but I have my doubts.

He'll have to prove it in the playoffs then in order for you to believe his growth is legit. That's understandable to me. I'm excited to see Duncan, Herro, and 3j in the playoffs. See if it's all fluff or for real.

[AirP.]

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[DayofMourning]

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The passes in that clip are beautiful.

[AirP.]

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[AirP.]

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[AirP.]

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[dshearn]

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First off.... Spo has his wedding ring back on, I am pretty sure he did not have it on during the game...

Second....

I know some of you dudes called it with JJJ in the offseason, I can't believe how good some of you are at predicting this stuff.

We are getting absolute legit miniature STAR vibes from JJJ already. While that is not abnormal, we have seen guys shine in a game here..or a game there before...the consistency JJJ has shown out is pretty remarkable.

This dude is making big plays in the 4th on the regular, but possession in and possession out the dude is doing the work. The dude helps around the basket, he boxes out, he stays in motion and try to make passing lanes, he will probe and dish. Don't have to worry about him wasting a ton of time dribbling...dude is just awesome. I really like the way he helps on defense and does not hedge too far off his corner assignment. I swear dudes are like 1-32 from the 3 point line against him when he uses that back handed swipe at the 3 pointer shooter. I have no idea why that is successful for him...but I swear it works.

[gom]

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First off.... Spo has his wedding ring back on, I am pretty sure he did not have it on during the game...

Second....

I know some of you dudes called it with JJJ in the offseason, I can't believe how good some of you are at predicting this stuff.

We are getting absolute legit miniature STAR vibes from JJJ already. While that is not abnormal, we have seen guys shine in a game here..or a game there before...the consistency JJJ has shown out is pretty remarkable.

This dude is making big plays in the 4th on the regular, but possession in and possession out the dude is doing the work. The dude helps around the basket, he boxes out, he stays in motion and try to make passing lanes, he will probe and dish. Don't have to worry about him wasting a ton of time dribbling...dude is just awesome. I really like the way he helps on defense and does not hedge too far off his corner assignment. I swear dudes are like 1-32 from the 3 point line against him when he uses that back handed swipe at the 3 pointer shooter. I have no idea why that is successful for him...but I swear it works.

One thing that isn't immediately apparent is that Jaquez, Highsmith, and Butler are all about the same size (weight and height). They are tall and strong. Nobody but Myles Turner on the Pacers is pushing them around.

That being said, we were lucky to get Hield on an abysmal shooting night. Well done, OP.