Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 3

[AirP.]

Gravity this. Gravity that. Any news on Dragic??

I know man, I try to stay away from conversation. AirP is a smart dude, he said it a thousand times, the contract is what bothers him about Duncan. He never complained about Duncan this much until the contract. Since then he been on a mission to highlight Duncan weaknesses and downplay his strengths. I believe AirP is smart that is why I believe he is not being totally honest. There is no way he seen how Winslow's lack of spacing hurt the team but now cant see the spacing Duncan provides is a big impact to the team.

The contract does bother me but BEFORE he got the contract, LAST SEASON I was saying I'd like to see how big of a difference Struss would be replacing Robinson. I honestly don't think there would be much if any of a drop off for the team if their roles were reversed and with that... Miami could have saved money or do a sign and trade.

Robinson is a very good 3pt shoot who is struggling some games, but why hand him 15-20 mil a year when you have a good enough player already on the roster and with that, utilize that money better somewhere else on the roster.

[twix2500]

I am about to touch another touchy discussion. Lets talk about Herro as a scorer. The quality of a scorer is determined by how many points you put up on the shots you take. Lets look at how Herro compares to other players averaging in his fga range. Lets look at between 18 through 17 fga.

Ranked by FGA
1. Anthony Edwards = 21.9 pts – 18.0 fga
2. Dejonte Murray = 19.9 pts – 17.9 fga
3. De’Aaron Fox = 21.8 pts – 17.6 fga
4. Nikola Jokic = 26.0 pts – 17.4 fga
5. Fed VanVleet = 21.6 pts – 17.3 fga
6. Tyler Herro = 20.0 pts – 17.3 fga
7. Anthony Davis = 23.1 pts – 17.2 fga
8. Pascal Siakam = 21.9 pts – 17.1 fga

Ranked by Points
1. Nikola Jokic = 26.0 pts – 17.4 fga
2. Anthony Davis = 23.1 pts – 17.2 fga
3. Anthony Edwards = 21.9 pts – 18.0 fga
4. De’Aaron Fox = 21.8 pts – 17.6 fga
5. Pascal Siakam = 21.9 pts – 17.1 fga5
6. Fed VanVleet = 21.6 pts – 17.3 fga
7. Tyler Herro = 20.0 pts – 17.3 fga
8. Dejonte Murray = 19.9 pts – 17.9 fga

Tyler is scoring in the Dejonte Murray range. That is not good. Tyler should be scoring at least 4 to 5 more points than his attempts. Anthony Davis is being considered to be struggling this year and he is 3 whole points above Herro on less attempts. Siakum and VanVleet are also better scorers.

The Heat needs Herro to be better. And i know its an unpopular opinion because it is entertaining to watch. But Herro dribbles too much in his attempts to score. He is trying to be a baby James Harden in which I think that is what Spo hopes to develop a bit of in Herro. But his inefficiency right now is hurting the team chances to win a chip. Herro could be averaging the same amount of points on less attempts but different types of looks. I have notice Herro in the past was very good coming off curls and pins from the wing and I have not seen much of that in his game this year. It has be a high volume at the top the key. Where has has to do multiple crossovers and step back just to get a good look. That is fine when you are trying to bail yourself out when the play has broken down, but that should not be the look you are designing to take. In November he is making those tough shots at a high rate. But I knew that could not be sustainable. It was good see he has in his bag, but it can not be his bread and butter. You do not want him to become baby Dion Waiters.

Hopefully some new looks for Herro will happen when Dipo starts playing and takes some of the top of the key ball handling away from Herro so Herro can get cleaner looks that does not require so much work to get.

[AirP.]

Spoiler:

I am about to touch another touchy discussion. Lets talk about Herro as a scorer. The quality of a scorer is determined by how many points you put up on the shots you take. Lets look at how Herro compares to other players averaging in his range. Lets between 18 through 17 shots.

Ranked by FGA
1. Anthony Edwards = 21.9 pts – 18.0 fga
2. Dejonte Murray = 19.9 pts – 17.9 fga
3. De’Aaron Fox = 21.8 pts – 17.6 fga
4. Nikola Jokic = 26.0 pts – 17.4 fga
5. Fed VanVleet = 21.6 pts – 17.3 fga
6. Tyler Herro = 20.0 pts – 17.3 fga
7. Anthony Davis = 23.1 pts – 17.2 fga
8. Pascal Siakam = 21.9 pts – 17.1 fga

Ranked by Points
1. Nikola Jokic = 26.0 pts – 17.4 fga
2. Anthony Davis = 23.1 pts – 17.2 fga
3. Anthony Edwards = 21.9 pts – 18.0 fga
4. De’Aaron Fox = 21.8 pts – 17.6 fga
5. Fed VanVleet = 21.6 pts – 17.3 fga
6. Pascal Siakam = 21.9 pts – 17.1 fga
7. Tyler Herro = 20.0 pts – 17.3 fga
8. Dejonte Murray = 19.9 pts – 17.9 fga

Tyler is scoring in the Dejonte Murray range. That is not good. Tyler should be scoring at least 4 to 5 more points than his attempts. Anthony Davis is being considered to be struggling this year and he is 3 whole points above Herro on less attempts. Siakum and VanVleet are also better scorers.

The Heat needs Herro to be better. And i know its an unpopular opinion because it is entertaining to watch. But Herro dribbles too much in his attempts to score. He is trying to be a baby James Harden in which I think that is what Spo hopes to develop a bit of in Herro. But his inefficiency right now is hurting the team chances to win a chip. Herro could averaging the same amount of points on less attempts but different types of looks. I have notice Herro in the past was very good coming off curls and pins from the wing and I have not seen much of that in his game this year. It has be a high volume at the top the key. Where has has to do multiple crossovers and step back just to get a good look. That is fine when you are trying to bail yourself out when the play has broken down, but that should be the look you are designing to take.

Hopefully some new looks for Herro will happen when Dipo starts playing and takes some of the top of the key ball handling away from Herro so Herro can get cleaner looks that does not require so much work to get.

Love the topic and although people think I hate Herro, I don't, I'm just being a realist and what I think he can and can't do. I'd rather move him in a package for a very good player because sure, in my opinion there is a small chance of him becoming a very good player, I just happen to think he may just end up a smooth inefficient player because he refuses to not take bad shots.

Here we go, I worry about Herro because of his mindset, not his skill, the guy is highly skilled on offense especially for his age, you can tell he works on his game. If he were to take out those ridiculous shots at bad times he'd be helping the team and his stats greatly but I'm not sure his ego will allow him to reign in his shots. What do I mean by his mindset? The announcers mention that Spoelstra had a film session with Herro to talk about his shot selection and being smarter about his shots so the very next game, on the road 6 minutes left in the 4th, up by 4 he puts up a 27 foot 3pt shot with 4 defenders back and not one teammate across half court.

Shots and situations like this hurt his efficiency/overall stats and makes it tougher for Miami to win games. Even if it's a low chance, a shot like this basically removes any chance of an offensive rebound and gaining another possession. It's just one possession but Herro taking very bad shots happens way too often. With his skill set, he should be way better statistically which also means he's helping the Heat win more.

I understand why people like him, I just don't know if he can change his overall mentality. He puts in the work, he looks smooth on the court, has a great shot... which are all great things but he's wild and may never quit being wild on his shot selection because his belief in himself is so great(which is why he's been successful to this point).

[twix2500]

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[twix2500]

Gravity this. Gravity that. Any news on Dragic??

I know man, I try to stay away from conversation. AirP is a smart dude, he said it a thousand times, the contract is what bothers him about Duncan. He never complained about Duncan this much until the contract. Since then he been on a mission to highlight Duncan weaknesses and downplay his strengths. I believe AirP is smart that is why I believe he is not being totally honest. There is no way he seen how Winslow's lack of spacing hurt the team but now cant see the spacing Duncan provides is a big impact to the team.

The contract does bother me but BEFORE he got the contract, LAST SEASON I was saying I'd like to see how big of a difference Struss would be replacing Robinson. I honestly don't think there would be much if any of a drop off for the team if their roles were reversed and with that... Miami could have saved money or do a sign and trade.

Robinson is a very good 3pt shoot who is struggling some games, but why hand him 15-20 mil a year when you have a good enough player already on the roster and with that, utilize that money better somewhere else on the roster.

They needed two. For depth purposes and because the hopeful implementation of Dipo. Also, you need to let Max prove himself. What Duncan does is not easy. Max started off hot and is starting to get the attention Duncan gets even thou its still not at that level. Plus it was early in the seaon and teams were not game planning for specific teams like that. Now we are at the all-star break we should see if Max can handle the pressure. And if he does than you got a player who is UNDER PAID. It is not Duncan is OVER PAID. And just think of it that the Heat got Duncan and Max for a combine 17 mill. And since Butler and Bam return Max is nothing but a one deminsional 3 point shooter.

[twix2500]

The Heat are in good position in the standings. And has plenty of room to improve. Team chemistry improving and the return of Herro and Dipo bring a lot of potential of improvement.

Hopefully there is quality play for this ranking of roles come playoff time

PG: Lowry - Oladipo - Vincent
SG: Butler - Herro - Vincent
SF: Robinson - Strus - Martin
PF: Tucker - Martin - Morris
Ce: Adebayo - Yurtseven - Dedmon

[AirP.]

I know man, I try to stay away from conversation. AirP is a smart dude, he said it a thousand times, the contract is what bothers him about Duncan. He never complained about Duncan this much until the contract. Since then he been on a mission to highlight Duncan weaknesses and downplay his strengths. I believe AirP is smart that is why I believe he is not being totally honest. There is no way he seen how Winslow's lack of spacing hurt the team but now cant see the spacing Duncan provides is a big impact to the team.

The contract does bother me but BEFORE he got the contract, LAST SEASON I was saying I'd like to see how big of a difference Struss would be replacing Robinson. I honestly don't think there would be much if any of a drop off for the team if their roles were reversed and with that... Miami could have saved money or do a sign and trade.

Robinson is a very good 3pt shoot who is struggling some games, but why hand him 15-20 mil a year when you have a good enough player already on the roster and with that, utilize that money better somewhere else on the roster.

They needed two. For depth purposes and because the hopeful implementation of Dipo. Also, you need to let Max prove himself. What Duncan does is not easy. Max started off hot and is starting to get the attention Duncan gets even thou its still not at that level. Plus it was early in the seaon and teams were not game planning for specific teams like that. Now we are at the all-star break we should see if Max can handle the pressure. And if he does than you got a player who is UNDER PAID. It is not Duncan is OVER PAID. And just think of it that the Heat got Duncan and Max for a combine 17 mill. And since Butler and Bam return Max is nothing but a one deminsional 3 point shooter.

You can continue to argue with me all day about him being overpaid or underpaid, I think J.Harris is overpaid and I like him better then Robinson. Why are they overpaid, because most players can hit 3s at a good clip, the current league average for everyone is 35%, this isn't 10 years ago where only good 3pt shooters shot the 3 and most of those shots were when they were wide open, almost everyone puts up 3s open or not and at a good clip so why pay for a single skill that's a little better then average vs a much better all around player near the league average helping on both sides of the court and is more dynamic on offense.

Also... think of the Spoelstra effect and how he gets players to play their best ball with him. PJ Tucker who has been a good 3pt shooter a number of years never shot like he is now(although at age 27 he was close) and it's mostly because of how the offense creates his open shots, I routinely see Butler, Lowry, Tucker and sometimes Bam doing off ball screens to make sure nobody gets out on the shooters and Tucker definitely gets a lot of that while he's getting the ball in the corner.

The Spoelstra effect is strong with players who listen and work hard, might be a reason why Bjelica didn't work out in Miami and possibly why Whiteside went from doing what it took to make the league, to becoming a monster, getting a big contract and then becoming a player Miami wanted to rid themselves of. Spoelstra does not get enough praise for how good all these players are performing but it does take a certain type of mindset and work level.

[goodboys lats]

15 home and 8 road games left. I'd like to see them go 10-5 at home and 5-3 on the road. That would put us at 53 wins which might be good enough for the 1 sees this year.

[twix2500]

I do have critics about Duncan that I want to see him improve at. In which I think he is fully capable of doing besides shooting.

1. Stop putting his hands on players, keep your hands up and use your length. That hand on hip will be easily called everytime.
2. Rebounding. Robinson has the size and length to be a very good rebounder. At times you see him focus and gets rebounds but he slacks off that area a lot. If he hunts for rebounds it can losen up more fast breaks for the team. If he can get his rebounds above 4 it would be a great impact.
3. Passing. You seen it last night. Being a more aware passer can complement his off ball movements and shooting. Teams come at him hard at the three point line and over play him which can be taken advantage off by hitting off the ball cutters. If he can get his assist above 2 it would be a great impact.

[AirP.]

I do have critics about Duncan that I want to see him improve at. In which I think he is fully capable of doing besides shooting.

1. Stop putting his hands on players, keep your hands up and use your length. That hand on hip will be easily called everytime.
2. Rebounding. Robinson has the size and length to be a very good rebounder. At times you see him focus and gets rebounds but he slacks off that area a lot. If he hunts for rebounds it can losen up more fast breaks for the team. If he can get his rebounds above 4 it would be a great impact.
3. Passing. You seen it last night. Being a more aware passer can complement his off ball movements and shooting. Teams come at him hard at the three point line and over play him which can be taken advantage off by hitting off the ball cutters. If he can get his assist above 2 it would be a great impact.

Although players can continue to get better, the older they are the harder it is to pick up new skills or change old habits, Duncan is just over 2 months from turning 28, he's not young but at least he has the skill to play for a long time.

I bet some people on this board don't realize that Duncan is barely 2 years younger then Oladipo.

[BFRESH44]

Yeah I think some of you forget Herro just turned 22, and is only a 3rd year player. And was the 14th pick.

Compare his scoring efficiency to players when they were at or around his age. Or compare him to his draft class contemporaries. I’m certain he stacks up. Perspective please.

[twix2500]

Spoiler:

The contract does bother me but BEFORE he got the contract, LAST SEASON I was saying I'd like to see how big of a difference Struss would be replacing Robinson. I honestly don't think there would be much if any of a drop off for the team if their roles were reversed and with that... Miami could have saved money or do a sign and trade.

Robinson is a very good 3pt shoot who is struggling some games, but why hand him 15-20 mil a year when you have a good enough player already on the roster and with that, utilize that money better somewhere else on the roster.

They needed two. For depth purposes and because the hopeful implementation of Dipo. Also, you need to let Max prove himself. What Duncan does is not easy. Max started off hot and is starting to get the attention Duncan gets even thou its still not at that level. Plus it was early in the seaon and teams were not game planning for specific teams like that. Now we are at the all-star break we should see if Max can handle the pressure. And if he does than you got a player who is UNDER PAID. It is not Duncan is OVER PAID. And just think of it that the Heat got Duncan and Max for a combine 17 mill. And since Butler and Bam return Max is nothing but a one deminsional 3 point shooter.

You can continue to argue with me all day about him being overpaid or underpaid, I think J.Harris is overpaid and I like him better then Robinson. Why are they overpaid, because most players can hit 3s at a good clip, the current league average for everyone is 35%, this isn't 10 years ago where only good 3pt shooters shot the 3 and most of those shots were when they were wide open, almost everyone puts up 3s open or not and at a good clip so why pay for a single skill that's a little better then average vs a much better all around player near the league average helping on both sides of the court and is more dynamic on offense.

Also... think of the Spoelstra effect and how he gets players to play their best ball with him. PJ Tucker who has been a good 3pt shooter a number of years never shot like he is now(although at age 27 he was close) and it's mostly because of how the offense creates his open shots, I routinely see Butler, Lowry, Tucker and sometimes Bam doing off ball screens to make sure nobody gets out on the shooters and Tucker definitely gets a lot of that while he's getting the ball in the corner.

The Spoelstra effect is strong with players who listen and work hard, might be a reason why Bjelica didn't work out in Miami and possibly why Whiteside went from doing what it took to make the league, to becoming a monster, getting a big contract and then becoming a player Miami wanted to rid themselves of. Spoelstra does not get enough praise for how good all these players are performing but it does take a certain type of mindset and work level.

Value is where me and you see different. You perceive a 35% shooting is closer to value to a 40% shooter than I do. I see it as miles of gap between that two. Duncan is not a career 35% shooter. IMO if you go below 35% from three you are bad. Shouldnt be shooting 3 pointers or no more than 2 a game. Duncan is a 40% shooter. Yes he struggle mightly this year specially in November. But teams defend him because they seen him shoot lights out for two years. They are not defending him based on November.

I do not think Harris is a bad player. I think of him as a role player a good one. I see nothing wrong with his contract. The problem is he is not on a quality team and playing a role that complements a star. But Harris is not historically a shooter he has two good years and went back to the norm. He is primarily a defender. He is not a stretch player. And if I am not mistake the knock on Harris was injuries. Duncan is historically a player doesnt miss games. In regards to the Heat. No Harris does not complement Bam and Butler in Spo system. So he would be terrible here.

You are talking apples and oranges. Two quality fruits but different. If a team that has stars that need a guy who can defend the Point and Shooting guard and does not need a scorer than he would be the guy. Role players are not universal their value is dependent on how they complement the star player. The Orlando Magic has ZERO stars. A team full of random role players thus that is why they suck.

Historically Pat Riley know how to put together the RIGHT role players that complement the star and system. That is not a knock on Duncan, that how it works.

HellI think WInslow can be a quality role player. Just people here still think he is a star. The problem with Winslow is him missing layups and free throws. If he was dependable at making layups and free throws you can put him next to a star who thrive at the three point line.

[MettaWorldPanda]

I can’t understand how we can just let Dragic sign with a conference rival without any fight. I really hope he ends up on a west coast team. It’s not going to be fun going against Gogi. He knows our playbook in and out.

[HeatFanLifer]

I can’t understand how we can just let Dragic sign with a conference rival without any fight. I really hope he ends up on a west coast team. It’s not going to be fun going against Gogi. He knows our playbook in and out.

Last night, upon seeing our lack of defensive stoppers, I realized Gogi would not be a great fit here. If the Heat have a roster spot available, it needs to be on a quality perimeter defender. Martin provides that defense, but we’re thin past that on the bench.

I am excited see how Dipo does on defense.

[MettaWorldPanda]

I can’t understand how we can just let Dragic sign with a conference rival without any fight. I really hope he ends up on a west coast team. It’s not going to be fun going against Gogi. He knows our playbook in and out.

Last night, upon seeing our lack of defensive stoppers, I realized Gogi would not be a great fit here. If the Heat have a roster spot available, it needs to be on a quality perimeter defender. Martin provides that defense, but we’re thin past that on the bench.

I am excited see how Dipo does on defense.

Just wouldn’t feel right if he ends up on the Bucks but would love a defensive backup 4. The depth is bare. Rondae Hollis Jefferson playing in Turkey right now is the only player i can think of.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

The Herro stuff is pointless to even discuss on here, he’s viewed in the same light as god. We’ll discuss when his max extension kicks in and he’s averaging 23 on 20 shots with a 34% usage if he’s not traded for Mitchell or another star by then

[eddieheatfan]

I can’t understand how we can just let Dragic sign with a conference rival without any fight. I really hope he ends up on a west coast team. It’s not going to be fun going against Gogi. He knows our playbook in and out.

maybe he will act as an riley spy

[eddieheatfan]

The Herro stuff is pointless to even discuss on here, he’s viewed in the same light as god. We’ll discuss when his max extension kicks in and he’s averaging 23 on 20 shots with a 34% usage if he’s not traded for Mitchell or another star by then

no really he is just a pretty important asset in the heat's future because of his upside



besides, the same people that dislike herro are the same ones that wanted bol bol to be in a heat uniform not so long ago

[IceColdCubano]

I am about to touch another touchy discussion. Lets talk about Herro as a scorer. The quality of a scorer is determined by how many points you put up on the shots you take. Lets look at how Herro compares to other players averaging in his fga range. Lets look at between 18 through 17 fga.

Ranked by FGA
1. Anthony Edwards = 21.9 pts – 18.0 fga
2. Dejonte Murray = 19.9 pts – 17.9 fga
3. De’Aaron Fox = 21.8 pts – 17.6 fga
4. Nikola Jokic = 26.0 pts – 17.4 fga
5. Fed VanVleet = 21.6 pts – 17.3 fga
6. Tyler Herro = 20.0 pts – 17.3 fga
7. Anthony Davis = 23.1 pts – 17.2 fga
8. Pascal Siakam = 21.9 pts – 17.1 fga

Ranked by Points
1. Nikola Jokic = 26.0 pts – 17.4 fga
2. Anthony Davis = 23.1 pts – 17.2 fga
3. Anthony Edwards = 21.9 pts – 18.0 fga
4. De’Aaron Fox = 21.8 pts – 17.6 fga
5. Pascal Siakam = 21.9 pts – 17.1 fga5
6. Fed VanVleet = 21.6 pts – 17.3 fga
7. Tyler Herro = 20.0 pts – 17.3 fga
8. Dejonte Murray = 19.9 pts – 17.9 fga

Tyler is scoring in the Dejonte Murray range. That is not good. Tyler should be scoring at least 4 to 5 more points than his attempts. Anthony Davis is being considered to be struggling this year and he is 3 whole points above Herro on less attempts. Siakum and VanVleet are also better scorers.

The Heat needs Herro to be better. And i know its an unpopular opinion because it is entertaining to watch. But Herro dribbles too much in his attempts to score. He is trying to be a baby James Harden in which I think that is what Spo hopes to develop a bit of in Herro. But his inefficiency right now is hurting the team chances to win a chip. Herro could be averaging the same amount of points on less attempts but different types of looks. I have notice Herro in the past was very good coming off curls and pins from the wing and I have not seen much of that in his game this year. It has be a high volume at the top the key. Where has has to do multiple crossovers and step back just to get a good look. That is fine when you are trying to bail yourself out when the play has broken down, but that should not be the look you are designing to take. In November he is making those tough shots at a high rate. But I knew that could not be sustainable. It was good see he has in his bag, but it can not be his bread and butter. You do not want him to become baby Dion Waiters.

Hopefully some new looks for Herro will happen when Dipo starts playing and takes some of the top of the key ball handling away from Herro so Herro can get cleaner looks that does not require so much work to get.

Great analysis I like to see these type of post, they bring up a lot of amazing information. Well thought out!!! Excellent Twix...

I will say however I would like to see him compared to other guards or wings (within the same margins you just posted), I wouldn't include Front court players even if they are averaging the same FGA as size/length/strength along with playing closer to the basket will net more efficiency on those players. Hence why even as mentioned above Anthony Davis playing terribly this year still manages to have a higher efficiency.

I would also look at bench scorers against separately to get more context within the same parameters above, wings & guards only because bench players/six men ultimately spend more than 75% of their scoring without starters along side them. Which means that they don't have the advantage of getting less defensive intensity and are usually crowed more if they are the primary go to scorer.

I think seeing the above would give us more exact representation.

In theory Hero should improve if another wing ball handler who can also get the team into sets like an Oladipo or a Vet presence like Dragic takes some of the ball handling duties away, a get him back to like you said; more curls, pinch drives, back screen step backs, etc.

[IceColdCubano]

The Herro stuff is pointless to even discuss on here, he’s viewed in the same light as god. We’ll discuss when his max extension kicks in and he’s averaging 23 on 20 shots with a 34% usage if he’s not traded for Mitchell or another star by then

No, I think there are some pretty smart and sensible posters on this Heat forum. There's always room for discussion, at least I am always up for it....