Philly @ Miami - Tuesday - May 10th - 7:30 PM - GAME 5

[AirP.]

He's now had 21 playoff games since that 37 point game and he's had 20+ points 3 times since then. Let that sink in.

I'm aware of his struggles as a Rookie in the Finals, the poor Bucks showing of the whole team last year and the Hawks series where he was less than stellar. No doubt he isn't playing his best ball, but when he's on he can turn a game for us. He remains one of our better offensive players, he just needs to get himself on-track.

If he can't do it and we fail to win the 'chip, ultimately Riley will go shopping. It is what it is.

The problem with Herro is he is not looking to score, you can see he is picking up his dribble very early, not sure if its because they are trapping him, and we all know what happens when they pressure him with the ball.

And now teams are being educated on what Herro likes and doesn't like. Teams getting to study and practice against 1 opponent for a series is why the playoffs are so much different then showing up they day before to play a game and off to the next city.

[Tony15]

I'm aware of his struggles as a Rookie in the Finals, the poor Bucks showing of the whole team last year and the Hawks series where he was less than stellar. No doubt he isn't playing his best ball, but when he's on he can turn a game for us. He remains one of our better offensive players, he just needs to get himself on-track.

If he can't do it and we fail to win the 'chip, ultimately Riley will go shopping. It is what it is.

The problem with Herro is he is not looking to score, you can see he is picking up his dribble very early, not sure if its because they are trapping him, and we all know what happens when they pressure him with the ball.

And now teams are being educated on what Herro likes and doesn't like. Teams getting to study and practice against 1 opponent for a series is why the playoffs are so much different then showing up they day before to play a game and off to the next city.

The beauty of life?.....is that there's always room to improve. Now let's just hope that Tyler develops his handles further and learns how to punish teams for trapping him.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Angry Embiid got absolutely clamped by Bam all night. Who else in the league is doing this?

He needs to do this all the time not sporadically.


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He’s the best defender in the world, it isn’t sporadically but you’re not going to consistently block Jump shots, especially a 7 footers

[3ammy3uck3ts]

We’re going to need post ASB stretch Herro if we want to make it to the finals and win it all. Let’s hope he shows up

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Love to see the narrative of the day is whoever wins bucks/Celtics is coming out of the East

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Turned Joel Embiid, a lot of peoples MVP this season, into Clint Capela

[carnageta]

Read on Twitter

Angry Embiid got absolutely clamped by Bam all night. Who else in the league is doing this?

He needs to do this all the time not sporadically.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

He can. The only question is, how quick will the refs blow the whistle?

[Hallstar]

No... it's 2 games these playoffs the same amount of games he's scored 6 or fewer points for Miami.

What is his role if he's not scoring? It sure isn't defense.

Here's his playoff game log for each game. It doesn't have his 10-point game tonight in it.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/herroty01/gamelog-playoffs/

Can't wait to hear the outcry a year after Herro signs his next contract no matter what team he's on.

Ok, let me break down what you're seeing if you don't understand it. Every day Maxey starts a game, he knows the ball handling heirarchy on the floor is him and Harden while Embiid will just be doing Embiid.

Herro currently has at least 5 other players, all senior to him in either age or experience who fancy themselves as ball handlers.(Lowry, Jimmy, Dipo, Gabe, Bam). All these players were not in the rotation during the season for various reasons so he had a lot more freedom to be consistently creative on ball. As the youngest player, he's gonna defer if senior players are demanding the ball. It's natural.

He's not established enough as a player to be getting in a back and forth with vets and damn sure not in the playoffs.

Added to that is that Bam is easily his fav pnr option yet until the 4th quarter of most games, he's stuck out there trying to run offense with the living moving screen since Spo insists on bringing them in together.

Herro's offensive ability isn't theoretical. It's up to Spo to figure out how he can create lineups that worked during the season if Herro being a better scorer is gonna be desired deeper in the playoffs.

Chucking is always an option....meaning that there's not any defense holding Herro to 8 shots. It's the change in offense.

Oh, I get it, play one way all year long then dramatically change the way you play for the playoffs.

My opinion differs then yours because I don't think it's about seniority, I think it has something to do with ability and what I've tried to tell you people.... during the season Herro was a scorer and teams weren't scheming, studying or practicing to stop that player because you fly in, MAYBE practice then play the game. In the playoffs teams know they have a series to play against 1 team so they can educate themselves on the team and players so they understand what to take away and what certain players like to do... hence Herro being pressured on the ball and him from time to time picking up his dribble with nobody to pass to.... that's not seniority, that's defenders knowing how to better player a person. Now if Herro was a vet most players would already know what to try to take away from him since they've played against him for years, that's not the case for Herro, he had a new role having a green light and with that defenders weren't sure how to guard him.

I promise you, if Miami(coaches/players) thought Herro could score well they'd try to use him more.

Your first statement was addressed in my first post. During the season, there was no Dipo, both Lowry and Jimmy were out for extended periods. Herro was on the court and there was no question of if the ball would be in his hands for extended periods. That is NOT the case currently. That's all I'm saying. If you don't think that would take an adjustment period, then we just disagree.

[BenoUdrihFTL]

All this talk about Herro...

He's averaging 16 ppg on 58% TS this series. Yes that's down from his RS volume but our pace this series is substantially lower and he's getting 12 fga vs 17 in the RS. His volume is also deflated from only getting 22 mins and 8 fga last night due to it being such a blowout

His volume is ALSO deflated from him having to play more of a quasi-PG role with Lowry out. He's not always playing with a pure SG shoot-first mentality. It's not ideal for Herro at this stage of his career

His volume is yet again ALSO deflated from Philly throwing their kitchen sink at him. He's commanding a crazy amount of defensive attention for a 22yo coming off the bench, to the point where Philly is playing the offensively unplayable Thybulle and matching him up with Herro's mins. Apparently Philly believes as I do; that Miami's halfcourt offense can be clamped if Herro isn't scoring efficiently. But regardless of whether Herro is actually scoring, that defensive attention benefits every Heat player Herro shares the court with

And this is just my eye test, but Herro seems to be doing decent defensively overall. At the very least he's making the effort. I've yet to see him effectively hunted for any sustained stretch

All that said, he's looked frustratingly bad at certain times but ask yourself when exactly that's happened. He has a TS% of 58 and coming into last night he was 43% on 3s for a team that's been absolutely desperate for 3pt shooting. So it hasn't been his shooting that's looked bad. For me, it's two things: 1) the quasi-PG thing. He's looked indecisive at times and has committed some egregious turnovers (even though he only has 9 TOs in 5 games). They've just been really bad TOs where you're wondering wtf was he thinking. So I dunno, perhaps he's looked worse than he's actually been. 2) would be his variance. Played great the first 2 at home, bad the second 2 on the road (Gm5 was a blowout that isn't too informative). I guess it's a good thing we have HCA throughout the EC playoffs

Now I'm not saying Herro has performed like an allstar, but this idea that he's had some kind of disastrous series is just false if you're going by the numbers and what's actually happening on the court

[AirP.]

All this talk about Herro...

He's averaging 16 ppg on 58% TS this series. Yes that's down from his RS volume but our pace this series is substantially lower and he's getting 12 fga vs 17 in the RS. His volume is also deflated from only getting 22 mins and 8 fga last night due to it being such a blowout

His volume is ALSO deflated from him having to play more of a quasi-PG role with Lowry out. He's not always playing with a pure SG shoot-first mentality. It's not ideal for Herro at this stage of his career

His volume is yet again ALSO deflated from Philly throwing their kitchen sink at him. He's commanding a crazy amount of defensive attention for a 22yo coming off the bench, to the point where Philly is playing the offensively unplayable Thybulle and matching him up with Herro's mins. Apparently Philly believes as I do; that Miami's halfcourt offense can be clamped if Herro isn't scoring efficiently. But regardless of whether Herro is actually scoring, that defensive attention benefits every Heat player Herro shares the court with

I've said this time after time, if you put a defender on him who pressures him he's not going to do well, when a defender plays off him is where Herro can create space and make baskets. To me this screams regular season player vs playoff player.

And this is just my eye test, but Herro seems to be doing decent defensively overall. At the very least he's making the effort. I've yet to see him effectively hunted for any sustained stretch

Yes, Herro is giving effort out there on defense much more then during the regular season and with that has been a little better, the same can't really be said of Robinson.

All that said, he's looked frustratingly bad at certain times but ask yourself when exactly that's happened. He has a TS% of 58 and coming into last night he was 43% on 3s for a team that's been absolutely desperate for 3pt shooting. So it hasn't been his shooting that's looked bad.

That's weird, I see different stats for these playoffs for Herro. I see a 52% TS% and 28% from 3pt range while adding 3.1 ast and 2.1 TOs. Also, of all the players that have seen the playoffs this year for Miami, Herro is currently 11th in ORTG at 101 which is only better then Lowry, Martin and Morris. He's had only 3 out of 10 playoff games where he shot over 29% from 3pt range in this year's playoffs, how did you get 43% from 3?

Spoiler:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2022.html

Here's the teams ORTG-DRTG for the 10 playoff games so far.

Code: Select all

Player            ORtg DRtg ORtg-DRtg
------            ---- ---- ---------
P.J. Tucker       138  107         31
Jimmy Butler      132  102         30
Omer Yurtseven    135  107         28
Duncan Robinson   132  110         22
Bam Adebayo       121  103         18
Haywood Highsmith 121  112          9
Max Strus         111  106          5
Gabe Vincent      106  106          0
Dewayne Dedmon    104  104          0
Victor Oladipo    103  104         -1
Tyler Herro       101  106         -5
Kyle Lowry        94   105        -11
Caleb Martin      74   102        -28
Markieff Morris   0    103       -103

For me, it's two things: 1) the quasi-PG thing. He's looked indecisive at times and has committed some egregious turnovers (even though he only has 9 TOs in 5 games). They've just been really bad TOs where you're wondering wtf was he thinking. So I dunno, perhaps he's looked worse than he's actually been. 2) would be his variance. Played great the first 2 at home, bad the second 2 on the road (Gm5 was a blowout that isn't too informative). I guess it's a good thing we have HCA throughout the EC playoffs

Now I'm not saying Herro has performed like an allstar, but this idea that he's had some kind of disastrous series is just false if you're going by the numbers and what's actually happening on the court

Maybe you need to look up his numbers again and yes, I've been watching what's going on, on the court, it's what I'm seeing that prompts me to look at numbers.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2022.html

[BenoUdrihFTL]

AirP you're looking at total playoff numbers. I was citing this series vs Philly, when he's actually been needed

[AirP.]

AirP you're looking at total playoff numbers. I was citing this series vs Philly, when he's actually been needed

He was needed game 3 and 4 when he went 3 for 12 from 3pt range(one of those shots may have been a heave/shouldn't be counted against him).

It's actually quite possible having nearly anyone else who is just decent in for Herro in games 1, 2 and 5 that Miami would have had the same type of outcome. Miami won those games by 14, 16 and 35.

[AirP.]

FYI, not sure others had seen this but I just happened to stumble onto some stats I was not aware of... splits of shooting on NBA.com. It categorizes each shot and also has links to the videos of each particular shot. Since I was looking at Herro, here's Herro's page, this is more about the types of stats then it being Herro. This seems like it'll be an incredible resource to go back and review specific games for specific players.

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629639/shooting?SeasonType=Playoffs

[BenoUdrihFTL]

AirP you're looking at total playoff numbers. I was citing this series vs Philly, when he's actually been needed

He was needed game 3 and 4 when he went 3 for 12 from 3pt range(one of those shots may have been a heave/shouldn't be counted against him).

It's actually quite possible having nearly anyone else who is just decent in for Herro in games 1, 2 and 5 that Miami would have had the same type of outcome. Miami won those games by 14, 16 and 35.

Anyone else with the skillset to score efficiently in the halfcourt. Check the pbp of games 1 and 2, Herro was instrumental in closing out both 1st quarters with nice cushions that set the tone for the rest of the games. These aren't garbage time stats he's accumulating, he's been key in either establishing leads or stemming Philly runs, and the way he's been doing it isn't something that can be replicated by anyone else on the roster not named Jimmy Butler, outside of possibly Oladipo on a hot streak

When I say that Miami's hopes depend on Herro's ability to score efficiently, I'm not saying that to mean that Herro is some kind of allstar. It's more of a statement of how fragile our halfcourt offense is

[AirP.]

AirP you're looking at total playoff numbers. I was citing this series vs Philly, when he's actually been needed

He was needed game 3 and 4 when he went 3 for 12 from 3pt range(one of those shots may have been a heave/shouldn't be counted against him).

It's actually quite possible having nearly anyone else who is just decent in for Herro in games 1, 2 and 5 that Miami would have had the same type of outcome. Miami won those games by 14, 16 and 35.

Anyone else with the skillset to score efficiently in the halfcourt. Check the pbp of games 1 and 2, Herro was instrumental in closing out both 1st quarters with nice cushions that set the tone for the rest of the games. These aren't garbage time stats he's accumulating, he's been key in either establishing leads or stemming Philly runs, and the way he's been doing it isn't something that can be replicated by anyone else on the roster not named Jimmy Butler, outside of possibly Oladipo on a hot streak

When I say that Miami's hopes depend on Herro's ability to score efficiently, I'm not saying that to mean that Herro is some kind of allstar. It's more of a statement of how fragile our halfcourt offense is

He normally doesn't score efficiently. He does score in bunches and he looks smooth doing it. His post all-star break numbers(20 games) were much better then his pre all-star break numbers. I don't think(I could be wrong) he got better at one point in the season, I think he just had an extended hot streak, who knows maybe he put in extra work with the possibility of an extension this summer much like you see players go all out on the last year of their contract looking to get a bigger contract. There's a few different reasons why Herro may have been better the 2nd half, I just happen to think he just got better isn't all that likely. Also... once again, I'm not saying he's a horrible player, he's just more then likely nowhere near what people seem to indicate he is, the max contract talk was being thrown around and I'm sure he'll seek that since some people think he's that good yet his advanced numbers don't indicate that. A nice thing about Herro is he's willing to put up the high pressure shots, not everyone will do that.

Let's look at the season.

Herro's TS% for the season was .561 which I believe is about league average. Only Duncan, Butler, Tucker, Lowry, Oladipo, Bam, Martin, Strus and Dedmon had higher TS%.

Also, for ORTG Herro was 107 which is the highest of his career. Only Oladipo(low data), Robinson, Strus, KZ, Dedmon, Bam, Lowry, Martin, Tucker and Butler were higher then him.

How about ESPN's real plus minus?
Robinson 4.57
Bam 4.45
Lowry 4.32
Butler 4.19
Tucker 1.84
Vincent 0.03
Strus -0.58
Martin -1.34
Herro -1.69
Yurtseven -1.9
Dedmon -2.5

[BenoUdrihFTL]

I'm not sure what any of that has to do with my point AirP

Me: our halfcourt offense cannot survive these playoffs without Herro scoring efficiently

That's my assertion here and it bears out when we look at this current series vs Philly

And if we want a larger sample size:

- Heat were 28-9 this RS when Herro scored >20 points (51/48/88 splits). That's a pace of 62 wins
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/miami-heat-record-when-tyler-herro-scores-20-points-2022

- Heat were 16-13 this RS when Herro scored <20 points (35/29/83 splits). That's a pace of 45 wins
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/miami-heat-record-when-tyler-herro-scores-below-20-points-2022

We are a legit contender who can beat anyone when Herro is playing well, we are a play-in team when he isn't

So going further, to expand upon my point, it behooves Spo to do what he can to get Herro going

[BFRESH44]

Nitpicking Herro is amusing. He’s a supporting piece, who’s had some moments, and some struggles. Very typical for a young ascending player. Nowhere close to his peak as a player. He’s had to adjust to some increased defensive attention and some traps. The postseason sample isn’t large enough for me to make a determination on his future yet either. He’s already exceeded the expectations of that of a 14th overall pick. Sheesh.

[eddieheatfan]

the hate for herro here is real, imagine if we had gotten bol bol instead...i leave you guys pondering about that one

also i dont see mitchell going out of the west coast unless he demands a trade but yeah talking about offseason moves when the heat is pushing deep in the playoffs is kind of pointless at this point. let the "season" rnd to engage in that type of talk but that's just my humble opinion on this matter

[Heat_Down_Under]

If we don’t win the next game it’s going to be too much pressure at home and we might lose game 7. Must close this out in 6 and gain confidence that we can win away against a good team in the play offs

I swear some of our fans are afraid of everything. This is sports ladies. Nothing worth it ever comes easy or handed to you. You have to work hard for it & persevere through obstacles. Pressure & being able to handle it is a big part of sports & is what separates the greats from others. If we can handle it then we don't deserve anything. It's what makes Championships so special. Nothing wrong w/ a gm7 nail biter to put some hairs on your chest & clear the sinuses

Says the majority of the fans who wanted a “favourable bracket” lol.. so yeah we should lose next game, just so we can have a nail biter at home and get another label that we can’t win away vs good teams… makes sense continue..

[3ammy3uck3ts]

the hate for herro here is real, imagine if we had gotten bol bol instead...i leave you guys pondering about that one

also i dont see mitchell going out of the west coast unless he demands a trade but yeah talking about offseason moves when the heat is pushing deep in the playoffs is kind of pointless at this point. let the "season" rnd to engage in that type of talk but that's just my humble opinion on this matter

That’s like saying what if we drafted Travis Diener instead of Wade lol. Bol Bol went like 40th, why is he the guy you’re swapping in?