2023 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Westbrook and Love edition

[AirP.]

This has been a concern all season, the team is projected over the tax with only 8-9 players under contract next year, so another 5-6 players have to be added to go even deeper into the tax and this doesn't even count resigning anyone like Vincent, Strus or Yurtseven. Also, Miami is just around the tax line if Oladipo opts out.

It's a pretty big reason why we didn't make moves this trade deadline and got rid of Dedmon. We just didn't have the contracts or assets to make any better deals for us.

Being below the tax was a priority because I fully expect the Heat to go into the tax next year. If Love plays well and wants to stay, we could have 4 core depth players needing to be resigned in Love, Dipo, Strus, Gabe. I don't see us keeping all of them unfortunately.
(some of you will be happy to see Strus gone I guess, but I won't). Omer is a RFA with a 2.2M qualifying offer.

BUT. Big but. We could potentially keep all of them if we pull off an offseason Lowry trade. Also, we could carry a big tax bill and then get much closer to the tax line by the trade deadline. Prime opportunity to try to pull off a Lowry trade at that point or maybe Duncan to a team with capspace and playing time available. If Westbrook can get moved at 47M, we can move Lowry at 29.6M. In reality, I expect us to be a tax team next year but Lowry will be gone one way or another by 2024-2025 and then we will actually be able to move on from Duncan with only 1.5-2 years left (with last year 50% guaranteed) and we get back under the tax and avoid any kind of repeater situation. I think that has always been the plan.

Not be a tax team in 2023. Try not to be a tax team in 2024 but OK if fielding a competitive team and trying to get under line. Not be a tax team in 2025.

No one is touching Duncan rightfully so thats a lost cause until he becomes an expiring in 4 years time. But the real interesting question is, do we give up one unprotected first round draft pick to move Lowry to a team that has cap space. The only teams with that type of cap space are the spurs an the Jazz.

He only has 3 more years left on the current contract. It would be interesting to see how they the FO tries to sell the owner this summer on going even more over the tax to retain Strus with Robinson still on the roster. If this is the case why wasn't Strus just sold off for a some type of asset, 3 2nds would at least be something.

[Lennyzinho]

Herro’s contract looks like chump change looking over some of these extension deals. Beal’s number is also a huge kick in the balls in the back end

Exactly. Herro making 5M this year. He's still young. He won't be hitting his prime until the end of his deal.
Like someone else said, would we really send Herro + Lowry + Jovic + FRP? I'm not so sure after seeing that 2/121M extension.
Would not be surprised if this time next year, The Ringers trade chart has Dame slipping and Herro moving up.

[Lennyzinho]

It's a pretty big reason why we didn't make moves this trade deadline and got rid of Dedmon. We just didn't have the contracts or assets to make any better deals for us.

Being below the tax was a priority because I fully expect the Heat to go into the tax next year. If Love plays well and wants to stay, we could have 4 core depth players needing to be resigned in Love, Dipo, Strus, Gabe. I don't see us keeping all of them unfortunately.
(some of you will be happy to see Strus gone I guess, but I won't). Omer is a RFA with a 2.2M qualifying offer.

BUT. Big but. We could potentially keep all of them if we pull off an offseason Lowry trade. Also, we could carry a big tax bill and then get much closer to the tax line by the trade deadline. Prime opportunity to try to pull off a Lowry trade at that point or maybe Duncan to a team with capspace and playing time available. If Westbrook can get moved at 47M, we can move Lowry at 29.6M. In reality, I expect us to be a tax team next year but Lowry will be gone one way or another by 2024-2025 and then we will actually be able to move on from Duncan with only 1.5-2 years left (with last year 50% guaranteed) and we get back under the tax and avoid any kind of repeater situation. I think that has always been the plan.

Not be a tax team in 2023. Try not to be a tax team in 2024 but OK if fielding a competitive team and trying to get under line. Not be a tax team in 2025.

No one is touching Duncan rightfully so thats a lost cause until he becomes an expiring in 4 years time. But the real interesting question is, do we give up one unprotected first round draft pick to move Lowry to a team that has cap space. The only teams with that type of cap space are the spurs an the Jazz.

He only has 3 more years left on the current contract. It would be interesting to see how they the FO tries to sell the owner this summer on going even more over the tax to retain Strus with Robinson still on the roster. If this is the case why wasn't Strus just sold off for a some type of asset, 3 2nds would at least be something.

The Heat could use him in the offseason as part of some S&T deal. Also probably wanted to show Jimmy & Bam that they're serious about competing and if you sell off Strus for a few 2nd round picks, what are you saying to an aging Lowry & Jimmy and Bam entering his prime. Heat had to bite that bullet. I'm sure if a team offered a 1st we would've taken it. Don't think the Heat care for 2nd's.

[Lennyzinho]

That contract makes you question how many assets you should really invest into such a risky contract. Is it really worth Lowry + Herro + a bunch of 1sts? After some thought… I think not. Portland would be foolish not to try to move him before his value starts to depreciate drastically. They can still catch another team in a vulnerable state, willing to gamble that he will not decline drastically.

The same can be said about us and Butler. He will be getting paid 50 million and we are seeing with our own two eyes just how "Motivated" just how "Passionate" just how "Resilient" he is in the regular season. Dame at least plays with passion and effort all season long.

I am with you… Butler is our Dame. Increasing costs with a declining output = a quickly depreciating asset. Would it be wise to have 2 of those on the roster? Add to that Duncan… yikes! That is why I say we should not throw too many assets at Portland for Dame. We may be sitting on a very ugly situation in 3 years.

Exactly why I brought this up. I was already taking Bam and Jimmy deals into consideration.
Bam making 30M this year but 37M the year Dame would make 62M. And Jimmy Butler 52M. 151M between 3 dudes? lmao.
Think Dame to Miami has no shot.

https://www.nba.com/news/nba-salary-cap-and-tax-level-expected-to-rise-in-2023-24
NEW YORK (AP) — The NBA told its teams on Friday that it still expects to see a significant jump in the salary cap and tax level in the 2023-24 season.

Based on current projections, the cap will rise 8.4%, and the tax level will rise 7.8% over this season.

Both figures — $134 million for the salary cap in 2023-24, $162 million as the tax level — would set records, and both are $1 million higher than the league’s most recent projections made in June. The looming 2022-23 season has a cap of $123.655 million, a tax level of $150.267 million.

Also Friday, the league told teams that total luxury tax payments for the coming season would be around $660 million, half of which would fund revenue sharing and the other half distributed in equal shares — about $17 million each — to the teams not currently projected to have to pay the tax.

But that tax number can, and almost certainly will, fluctuate wildly before a final calculation is made at the end of the regular season.

[heatlejuice]

Dame misses more time a year than Jimmy. What are we even talking about here

Dame is so overrated these days. Past his prime and plays no defense. No thanks

[twix2500]

Woah... I did not know this...
In July 2022 Dame signed a 2year 121M extension.
So he has a cap hit of 46M next year. (Lowry + Herro make 57M next year - so I was pushing for a trade. Get much better and cut cap)
49M 2024-2025 (age 34) still fine.
58.5M 2025-2026 (age 35) wait what?
63.4M 2026-2027 (age 36) omg pls stop no

I think I want to get off the Dame to Miami train at the next stop.

That contract is definitely ugly and something to be scared about. Makes me think of the Westbrook and CP3 contracts we tried to avoid a few years ago. One panned out, the other flopped hard. You never know if said player would live out that contract. Look at Lowry… we hate him as a 30mil player. May not be so upset at 18mil, but at 30mil, you feel cheated. Imagine Dame at 63.4mil and a drop off in production at that age.

Its a definate concern having so much money tied to one player. Hard to fill up the rest of the roster, we fell in this trap when lebron was here, outside of the big 3 we had to have undraftees and minimun players.

Way of the world..

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[dubasilva]

Woah... I did not know this...
In July 2022 Dame signed a 2year 121M extension.
So he has a cap hit of 46M next year. (Lowry + Herro make 57M next year - so I was pushing for a trade. Get much better and cut cap)
49M 2024-2025 (age 34) still fine.
58.5M 2025-2026 (age 35) wait what?
63.4M 2026-2027 (age 36) omg pls stop no

I think I want to get off the Dame to Miami train at the next stop.

Oh no but that's that kids favorite player and he owns this board. Retract your statement now!

This post has been flagged for "Baiting"

Why are we wasting time talking about a player that is not available, has not asked to be traded, has a long contract, and is getting older?

[Lennyzinho]

Woah... I did not know this...
In July 2022 Dame signed a 2year 121M extension.
So he has a cap hit of 46M next year. (Lowry + Herro make 57M next year - so I was pushing for a trade. Get much better and cut cap)
49M 2024-2025 (age 34) still fine.
58.5M 2025-2026 (age 35) wait what?
63.4M 2026-2027 (age 36) omg pls stop no

I think I want to get off the Dame to Miami train at the next stop.

Oh no but that's that kids favorite player and he owns this board. Retract your statement now!

This post has been flagged for "Baiting"

Why are we wasting time talking about a player that is not available, has not asked to be traded, has a long contract, and is getting older?

Bored during all star break my dude. lmao.
I really felt like he was the most likely to come to us in regards to star power, frustration with current team and desire to win and fit.
It really checks all the boxes and the timeline with Jimmy Butler also worked. Putting that all to bed now imo.
Better off chasing the next Brunson type dude in 2024-2025 offseason.

[dubasilva]

Oh no but that's that kids favorite player and he owns this board. Retract your statement now!

This post has been flagged for "Baiting"

Why are we wasting time talking about a player that is not available, has not asked to be traded, has a long contract, and is getting older?

Bored during all star break my dude. lmao.
I really felt like he was the most likely to come to us in regards to star power, frustration with current team and desire to win and fit.
It really checks all the boxes and the timeline with Jimmy Butler also worked. Putting that all to bed now imo.
Better off chasing the next Brunson type dude in 2024-2025 offseason.

I get it. I'm bored too and can't wait to see how this "new" team will react.

Just like K Duran, we need to be careful to not become obsessed. I love D Lilard. He's one of my favorite players, but I seriously doubt he'll ever play for the Heat. It is all about the $. I don't blame them. It is a short career.

[MiamiLoyal926]

Sorry 3ammy… the Dame wagon has come to a halt. It was a nice thought in fantasy, but in reality, the money is scary! Thanks for starting it though! Hopefully we could eventually have the right assets align with a good and young player like they did for the Cavs with Mitchell.

As an organization, we need to accept that we only make small moves for todays Jimmy window, while preparing for big moves for Bam’s window. Mitchell would have been the perfect type of move for both windows, but alas, we made bad moves the last few years that limited our spending power today. Dame would be just another bad move for us in our next window.

[MiamiLoyal926]

We let Wade walk, signaling that it was time to move on from the Wade era… and this was D Wade, our franchise player! Yet here we are, holding on to Butler, for his crazy price tag, at such an advanced age. We need to make the cut before his contract is up and jumpstart the new era sooner rather than later. I say we see Butler through until the end of next year the latest, and then we have to move him to help fast track the next window with a young stud next to Bam that can help attract a third stud. The Butler era is what it is… small moves to fortify the team, but not enough spending power to make real moves. It kept us relevant, and close enough to strike, but it was a small window, which needs to close soon!

[Heat_Down_Under]

Read on Twitter

[al bondiga]

We let Wade walk, signaling that it was time to move on from the Wade era… and this was D Wade, our franchise player! Yet here we are, holding on to Butler, for his crazy price tag, at such an advanced age. We need to make the cut before his contract is up and jumpstart the new era sooner rather than later. I say we see Butler through until the end of next year the latest, and then we have to move him to


But I have a feeling dirty can't tell you fast track the next window with a young stud And someday you will sign And someday he will sign up early Fresno contract for anext to Bam that can help attract a third stud. The Butler era is what it is… small moves to fortify the team, but not enough spending power to make real moves. It kept us relevant, and close enough to strike, but it was a small window, which needs to close soon!

JB is a great player, No doubt about that... He is our leader...has also earned what we have paid for him

But There's also no doubt That he has to be traded in the off season

But I have a feeling heat gonna keep him And someday he will play for us for very Little money... As he gently retires

[IceColdCubano]

We let Wade walk, signaling that it was time to move on from the Wade era… and this was D Wade, our franchise player! Yet here we are, holding on to Butler, for his crazy price tag, at such an advanced age. We need to make the cut before his contract is up and jumpstart the new era sooner rather than later. I say we see Butler through until the end of next year the latest, and then we have to move him to


But I have a feeling dirty can't tell you fast track the next window with a young stud And someday you will sign And someday he will sign up early Fresno contract for anext to Bam that can help attract a third stud. The Butler era is what it is… small moves to fortify the team, but not enough spending power to make real moves. It kept us relevant, and close enough to strike, but it was a small window, which needs to close soon!

JB is a great player, No doubt about that... He is our leader...has also earned what we have paid for him

But There's also no doubt That he has to be traded in the off season

But I have a feeling heat gonna keep him And someday he will play for us for very Little money... As he gently retires

Here's what I think, if we fizzle out in the first round and Jimmy looks old and beat down like the Milwaukee series they bent us over the table the year they won the championship. It gets really hard to sell Jimmy, he is by all metrics a serious depreciating asset only valuable to Miami. Where we will just keep making small to medium sized moves as we can to keep building around him and the core. If we lose say in the second round or in the Eastern Conference finals with Jimmy dominating, it proves this core isn't ever going to be it but Jimmy still brings it in the playoffs regardless of how he plays in the regular season. then and only then can the team actually get value back for him if they decide to move into the Bam window. You may have a team out there that has a superstar really close to getting to the Finals and boom, you get young studs back and picks. Now you start building around Bam as a core piece, not necessarily the center piece, since the league will always be dominated by all time great scoring wings. Bam needs his wingman a SG/SF athletic young superstar that gets buckets and isn't a turnstile on defense. Make those 2 guys happen, build some shooting, toughness, and defenders around them two and a recipe for success.

[MiamiLoyal926]

We let Wade walk, signaling that it was time to move on from the Wade era… and this was D Wade, our franchise player! Yet here we are, holding on to Butler, for his crazy price tag, at such an advanced age. We need to make the cut before his contract is up and jumpstart the new era sooner rather than later. I say we see Butler through until the end of next year the latest, and then we have to move him to


But I have a feeling dirty can't tell you fast track the next window with a young stud And someday you will sign And someday he will sign up early Fresno contract for anext to Bam that can help attract a third stud. The Butler era is what it is… small moves to fortify the team, but not enough spending power to make real moves. It kept us relevant, and close enough to strike, but it was a small window, which needs to close soon!

JB is a great player, No doubt about that... He is our leader...has also earned what we have paid for him

But There's also no doubt That he has to be traded in the off season

But I have a feeling heat gonna keep him And someday he will play for us for very Little money... As he gently retires

Here's what I think, if we fizzle out in the first round and Jimmy looks old and beat down like the Milwaukee series they bent us over the table the year they won the championship. It gets really hard to sell Jimmy, he is by all metrics a serious depreciating asset only valuable to Miami. Where we will just keep making small to medium sized moves as we can to keep building around him and the core. If we lose say in the second round or in the Eastern Conference finals with Jimmy dominating, it proves this core isn't ever going to be it but Jimmy still brings it in the playoffs regardless of how he plays in the regular season. then and only then can the team actually get value back for him if they decide to move into the Bam window. You may have a team out there that has a superstar really close to getting to the Finals and boom, you get young studs back and picks. Now you start building around Bam as a core piece, not necessarily the center piece, since the league will always be dominated by all time great scoring wings. Bam needs his wingman a SG/SF athletic young superstar that gets buckets and isn't a turnstile on defense. Make those 2 guys happen, build some shooting, toughness, and defenders around them two and a recipe for success.

If Jimmy looks bad, we are screwed. If he looks dominant, we likely fall for fools gold and keep on trying to build around him. If he looks good but not great, then he won’t fetch us the value we need.

Now… If he does look dominant and somehow the front office has the right of mind to cash in, then we look disloyal as an organization. It almost has to be a dominant playoff run from Jimmy, with a mutual realization between him and the Heat that this has ram it’s course and that it is best to part ways….

But…. Then how does Bam feel? Do we now tip him towards leaving us rather than bringing in a buddy?

Unfortunately, this Jimmy timeline is not easy to navigate, and the only move that makes sense is being able to flip Jimmy (with Herro) directly for a very good young stud. Unless… Herro somehow goes god mode the rest of this season and he raises his value and allure around the league significantly.

[Timantha]

My money on the team blowing it all up is the Bulls. Lavine and expiring DeRozan are probably on the trade market this offseason. Vucevic is probably out in free agency and the Bulls are going to go for another rebuild

[AirP.]

It gets really hard to sell Jimmy, he is by all metrics a serious depreciating asset only valuable to Miami.

All metrics?

He's averaging more points per game than last year.
His TS% is at the highest in his career.
His FG% is the highest of his career.
His eFG% is barely the highest of his career.
His ORTG is the highest of his career.
He's 2nd in the league in steals, off by .1 from the steals leader.

I'd understand the concern of decline if his game was based on speed/quickness or if he didn't work on keeping himself in tip top shape but those aren't issues for him or his game.

Butler's issue is his right knee that he tore his meniscus back when he played in Minnesota and probably had removed to get back to help his team make the playoffs (which he did) for the first time in over a decade so now he has to manage that knee for the rest of his career and life.

Butlers got 3 more years left on his contract and I think there's a high probability that the Bam and Butler combo for the next 3 years will be the best 2-man combo Miami has during Bam's career in Miami since both are great 2-way players. People seem to forget where Miami was for years after the big 3 until Butler forced his way to Miami.

Worst case scenario, Miami keeps Butler could keep Butler 2 more years and then have the opportunity to trade a nice big expiring contract for multiple players much like the Lakers just did.

[Timantha]

Read on Twitter

To all the Heat Dame believers... he is happy in Portland. Let him be

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Back and better than ever

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Sorry 3ammy… the Dame wagon has come to a halt. It was a nice thought in fantasy, but in reality, the money is scary! Thanks for starting it though! Hopefully we could eventually have the right assets align with a good and young player like they did for the Cavs with Mitchell.

As an organization, we need to accept that we only make small moves for todays Jimmy window, while preparing for big moves for Bam’s window. Mitchell would have been the perfect type of move for both windows, but alas, we made bad moves the last few years that limited our spending power today. Dame would be just another bad move for us in our next window.

Don’t be sorry brother, if Dame ever comes available Pat is 100% going to try and get him regardless of what some on RealGM think of his contract situation. That contract is the exact reason why we could have a chance of getting him, especially if he requests Miami. He will age fine