Well... we made it.
I've watched the Lakers games since the first round except their last game. The Lakers present some unique problems. Lebron's drives, clutch scoring, and (especially) defense are disruptive and difficult to develop plans to offset. He rarely gets into foul trouble and often gets a friendly whistle, so that is another part of the equation. Lebron is an average 3-point shooter but because he has championship pedigree, he can turn that up when he needs. Anthony Davis is an intelligent ball handler with a commanding game in the paint and good jump shot. He is a below-average 3 point shooter. Having either player take a contested 3-point shot though is a win.
KCP, Dudley, and Danny Green are their best shooters. On 100 possessions, they take 21 3-point shots, which is significant because they make 8.3 of them. Their other shooters are Quinn Cook, Alex Caruso, Rondo (not good but better than you may remember), & (especially) Markieff Morris. Morris's threat can be countered by getting him into foul trouble. They also have Waiters, JR Smith, and Troy Daniels who will try to score from 3. The typical play is for Lebron or Rondo to drive and toss the ball to a shooter on the perimeter.
The two teams are very different in an eye test, bet statistically they have many similarities.The significant differences are shooting (where the Heat are better) and paint protection (where the Lakers are dominant).
3-point shooting:
I am confident that any Heat-Lakers game that becomes a 3-point shooting contest will be easily won by the Heat. I also feel our 3-point defending is better, but statistically they are both about the same, two of the best 3-point defending teams in the league:
Free throw shooting is a Miami advantage, but getting whistles will be a problem:
The Lakers have an advantage in 2-pt %, and an advantage in shot attempts too:
Lakers advantage for Blocks is significant:
Steals too and Rondo has been brutal lately:
So obviously Lakers lead in Opponent Turnovers:
I agree with Rex that we need a great 3-point game, but we must play to our playmaking strength too. Our best scoring is when we drive and make passes into the paint for a back cut or easy 3 from the corner. We cannot win without these shots because they open up the perimeter for 3s. The Dragon, Butler, and Bam need to pull this off. On defense Miami needs to clog the passing lanes because once the ball is in the hands of Lebron or Davis, it's an easy score in the paint.
Tough series. Spo will have a plan.
