2025 Offseason Thread Vol.5

[SA37]

[

Spoiler:

quote="SA37"][quote="MettaWorldPanda"][spoiler]

I’ve been combing NBA depth charts relentlessly and i just don’t see a Tyler Herro trade they makes sense for us or the other team without selling really low. He’s worth more here right now. Maybe swapping out for Vassell and pick? Like you mentioned the team that also trades for him has to really like him with extension looming. Just too many factors working against a deal. We are kinda just stuck with him hoping he continues to get better because he’s too good just to let go for a low ball offer. We can win with Herro under the right build.[/quote]

The only reason I advocate for trading Herro is because I think Miami would be wise to get ahead of what could become an acrimonious standoff with regards to his extension. Miami's FO obv has a much better feel for where things stand with Herro and what they'd be comfortable giving him v what Herro's camp thinks he's worth. Even if Herro doesn't demand the max, I don't see him taking less than $40M/season, and I just don't think he's worth anywhere near that kind of money.

But I agree there just isn't an obvious deal that makes sense.[/quote][/spoiler]

I don’t know why I still keep reading stuff like this. His max is 26% this is not the 30% max or the 35% supermax.

If the top 15–20 guys get the supermax (15 guys make All-NBA every year) and almost all players in the 20–50 range are on a 26–30% max, then it’s completely normal for a guy like Herro who is well within the top 50 and still has upside to get the 26% max.

TLDR:
i) Herro will ask for the max. He’s a 25y old All Star and from his perspective, there’s no reason to ask for less.
ii) The Heat are going to give him the max with no questions

The Heat have no incentive to haggle over 3–6% of the cap with one of their best players, lowballing him would likely damage the relationship and trade value for minimal benefit.

I don’t understand how this is even a debate.

The only way Herro doesn’t sign the max with the Heat is if they are out on him (they’re not), or he declines it to chase the supermax later.[/quote][/quote]

This is the wrong way to look at this.

There is no reason to pay a player 25-30% of the cap when you can get similar production for less. Norman Powell, Devin Vassell, and DeMar DeRozan make significantly less than Herro and are going to give you as good or better production. It's no different than asking why would anyone pay Bradley Beal $50+M/year when they could get similar or better production from Herro, Powell, or DeRozan. That's why there is a "debate". Giving monstrous contracts to non-star players is ALWAYS a no-no.

Kyrie Irving is worlds better than Herro and will be paid $39 and $42M/year in 26-27 and 27-28, respectively. In those same season, Ja Morant will make $42 and $45M. Jalen Brunson will make $37, $40, and $43M in 26-27, 27-28, and 28-29. Herro is not worth more than Kyrie Irving, Ja Morant or Jalen Brunson.

Paying Herro significantly more than there players is a fool's errand and completely unjustifiable unless Herro gets significantly better.

[greg4012]

I do think Herro, and Bam for that matter, can be part of a Championship team as the 2nd or 3rd best players.

But we need a true 1A for that to be the case. Gets Herro off ball more where his elite shot making can do the talking, without as much pressure as an ISO scorer/creator. Gets Bam into a role he loves, which is do it all without the pressure of needing to carry the offensive load.

Not sure who that player is, but we need to find them.

Had Mia gotten Dame, Mitchell, Kyrie, etc etc etc over the years, the pecking order would have Bam as the team’s #3

Everyone was excited for these type of scenarios because we all know when we are being honest and not pushing an agenda that logically the ordering of Bam as the #3 gives Mia their best chance at winning a title with him on their roster

#3 in FGA sure. #3 in impact and importance? Not even close.

Feels like groundhog day on here all over again.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

1st/2nd/3rd offensive option does not always equal 1st/2nd/3rd best player. There is more to basketball than PPG, FGA, and Usage rate. Hopefully we can all realize that one day.

Hell, Rozier and Wiggins were both pegged as scoring priorities over Bam while neither are clearly nowhere near the player. We might be seeing 4th option Bam next year with the current roster construction (against his wishes that he’s been vocal about in the media but he’s too bought in to the organization so he just tries to make the best of the situation) because Spo values the other things he brings to the table and his ability to free guys up on offense as well. Perimeter players will almost always be given priority in scoring, especially when they’re paid pretty much just to score

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

[Beenie]

I do think Herro, and Bam for that matter, can be part of a Championship team as the 2nd or 3rd best players.

But we need a true 1A for that to be the case. Gets Herro off ball more where his elite shot making can do the talking, without as much pressure as an ISO scorer/creator. Gets Bam into a role he loves, which is do it all without the pressure of needing to carry the offensive load.

Not sure who that player is, but we need to find them.

Had Mia gotten Dame, Mitchell, Kyrie, etc etc etc over the years, the pecking order would have Bam as the team’s #3

Everyone was excited for these type of scenarios because we all know when we are being honest and not pushing an agenda that logically the ordering of Bam as the #3 gives Mia their best chance at winning a title with him on their roster

#3 in FGA sure. #3 in impact and importance? Not even close.

Feels like groundhog day on here all over again.

So in a Jimmy, Mitchell and Bam hypothetical trio, how do you rank them in terms of playoff impact and importance?

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[3ballbomber]

Wade & Kobe…..i’m diggin’ this guy even more.

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[SA37]

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Since we're on the topic of paying premiums for non-star players, a friendly reminder:

Duncan Robinson's contract would have paid him almost $20M this coming season; Norman Powell will make about $500k more and is 10x the player Robinson has ever been and ever will be.

This is why you DO NOT overpay for mediocrity.

[3ballbomber]

Read on Twitter

Since we're on the topic of paying premiums for non-star players, a friendly reminder:

Duncan Robinson's contract would have paid him almost $20M this coming season; Norman Powell will make about $500k more and is 10x the player Robinson has ever been and ever will be.

This is why you DO NOT overpay for mediocrity.

Why the hell are we still talking abut Duncan’s contract even after he’s gone

[SA37]

Read on Twitter

Since we're on the topic of paying premiums for non-star players, a friendly reminder:

Duncan Robinson's contract would have paid him almost $20M this coming season; Norman Powell will make about $500k more and is 10x the player Robinson has ever been and ever will be.

This is why you DO NOT overpay for mediocrity.

Why the hell are we still talking abut Duncan’s contract even after he’s gone

Because apparently people want to forget what happens when you give out bad contracts.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Since we're on the topic of paying premiums for non-star players, a friendly reminder:

Duncan Robinson's contract would have paid him almost $20M this coming season; Norman Powell will make about $500k more and is 10x the player Robinson has ever been and ever will be.

This is why you DO NOT overpay for mediocrity.

Why the hell are we still talking abut Duncan’s contract even after he’s gone

Because apparently people want to forget what happens when you give out bad contracts.

“It NoT a bAd CoNtrACt iF dA gODfaTheR dID iT, u EitHEr N oR U oUt BrUh!!!!!!”

[VaDe255]

Spoiler:

The only reason I advocate for trading Herro is because I think Miami would be wise to get ahead of what could become an acrimonious standoff with regards to his extension. Miami's FO obv has a much better feel for where things stand with Herro and what they'd be comfortable giving him v what Herro's camp thinks he's worth. Even if Herro doesn't demand the max, I don't see him taking less than $40M/season, and I just don't think he's worth anywhere near that kind of money.

But I agree there just isn't an obvious deal that makes sense.

I don’t know why I still keep reading stuff like this. His max is 26% this is not the 30% max or the 35% supermax.

If the top 15–20 guys get the supermax (15 guys make All-NBA every year) and almost all players in the 20–50 range are on a 26–30% max, then it’s completely normal for a guy like Herro who is well within the top 50 and still has upside to get the 26% max.

TLDR:
i) Herro will ask for the max. He’s a 25y old All Star and from his perspective, there’s no reason to ask for less.
ii) The Heat are going to give him the max with no questions

The Heat have no incentive to haggle over 3–6% of the cap with one of their best players, lowballing him would likely damage the relationship and trade value for minimal benefit.

I don’t understand how this is even a debate.

The only way Herro doesn’t sign the max with the Heat is if they are out on him (they’re not), or he declines it to chase the supermax later.

This is the wrong way to look at this.

There is no reason to pay a player 25-30% of the cap when you can get similar production for less. Norman Powell, Devin Vassell, and DeMar DeRozan make significantly less than Herro and are going to give you as good or better production. It's no different than asking why would anyone pay Bradley Beal $50+M/year when they could get similar or better production from Herro, Powell, or DeRozan. That's why there is a "debate". Giving monstrous contracts to non-star players is ALWAYS a no-no.

Kyrie Irving is worlds better than Herro and will be paid $39 and $42M/year in 26-27 and 27-28, respectively. In those same season, Ja Morant will make $42 and $45M. Jalen Brunson will make $37, $40, and $43M in 26-27, 27-28, and 28-29. Herro is not worth more than Kyrie Irving, Ja Morant or Jalen Brunson.

Paying Herro significantly more than there players is a fool's errand and completely unjustifiable unless Herro gets significantly better.

If you genuinely think Powell is on the same level as Herro or provides the same production or impact, then there’s really not much to discuss. That’s just objectively false, it’s not even close when you actually look at usage, creation responsibility and role. Believe what you want, but at some point, facts are facts.

On the salary comps, Ja is on a standard rookie max, Kyrie is still making a massive salary at 33y coming off a major injury and Brunson is one of the big underpays in the league (a rare exception, not a standard setter). If Herro took the Brunson deal, it would be a huge win for the Heat but that’s just not a realistic expectation

[greg4012]

Had Mia gotten Dame, Mitchell, Kyrie, etc etc etc over the years, the pecking order would have Bam as the team’s #3

Everyone was excited for these type of scenarios because we all know when we are being honest and not pushing an agenda that logically the ordering of Bam as the #3 gives Mia their best chance at winning a title with him on their roster

#3 in FGA sure. #3 in impact and importance? Not even close.

Feels like groundhog day on here all over again.

So in a Jimmy, Mitchell and Bam hypothetical trio, how do you rank them in terms of playoff impact and importance?

I misread. My bad. That would be the Bosh big 3 dynamic fa sho. Still pisses me off how close the Dame thing was and how perfect that fit would have been.

[MettaWorldPanda]

I know some think adding someone like Marcus Smart is useless but to me adding a burly ball handler like him who can play defense next to Herro could work wonders for the lineup structure. When Dru Smith was going on that run you could see the structure of a good backcourt forming cause Dru was playing savage defense in the backcourt shadowing Herro. Powell doesn’t seem to be a true defensive guy either but he’s also a much needed bucket. Get Smart and have Mitchell off the bench to shadow those guys while KJ is brought along slowly. Maybe even Dru Smith becomes a nice surprise in a pinch allowing us to rest Smart throughout the year.

I'm on board with acquiring Smart, but I'm not sure the Wiz are looking to move him. The big question with Smart is how much he has left in the tank after 2 injury-riddled seasons. The other bad thing is Smart is a pretty inconsistent shooter and not much of a playmaker. I expect Miami will pursue him when he becomes a FA, though.

Just looking for realistic options to flip Rozier for and he’s at the top of the list. Starting to look at DeRozan now and doubling down on getting more vet scorers on the cheap. If DeRozan is down to come off the bench that’s more added fire power to actually compete in the East. DeRozan would fit great in a Ware and Jovic combo lineup.

[3ballbomber]

Since we're on the topic of paying premiums for non-star players, a friendly reminder:

Duncan Robinson's contract would have paid him almost $20M this coming season; Norman Powell will make about $500k more and is 10x the player Robinson has ever been and ever will be.

This is why you DO NOT overpay for mediocrity.

Why the hell are we still talking abut Duncan’s contract even after he’s gone

Because apparently people want to forget what happens when you give out bad contracts.

Have you reached out to the organisation about your concerns? Im sure it would be duly noted & appreciated.

[SA37]

I don’t know why I still keep reading stuff like this. His max is 26% this is not the 30% max or the 35% supermax.

If the top 15–20 guys get the supermax (15 guys make All-NBA every year) and almost all players in the 20–50 range are on a 26–30% max, then it’s completely normal for a guy like Herro who is well within the top 50 and still has upside to get the 26% max.

TLDR:
i) Herro will ask for the max. He’s a 25y old All Star and from his perspective, there’s no reason to ask for less.
ii) The Heat are going to give him the max with no questions

The Heat have no incentive to haggle over 3–6% of the cap with one of their best players, lowballing him would likely damage the relationship and trade value for minimal benefit.

I don’t understand how this is even a debate.

The only way Herro doesn’t sign the max with the Heat is if they are out on him (they’re not), or he declines it to chase the supermax later.

This is the wrong way to look at this.

There is no reason to pay a player 25-30% of the cap when you can get similar production for less. Norman Powell, Devin Vassell, and DeMar DeRozan make significantly less than Herro and are going to give you as good or better production. It's no different than asking why would anyone pay Bradley Beal $50+M/year when they could get similar or better production from Herro, Powell, or DeRozan. That's why there is a "debate". Giving monstrous contracts to non-star players is ALWAYS a no-no.

Kyrie Irving is worlds better than Herro and will be paid $39 and $42M/year in 26-27 and 27-28, respectively. In those same season, Ja Morant will make $42 and $45M. Jalen Brunson will make $37, $40, and $43M in 26-27, 27-28, and 28-29. Herro is not worth more than Kyrie Irving, Ja Morant or Jalen Brunson.

Paying Herro significantly more than there players is a fool's errand and completely unjustifiable unless Herro gets significantly better.

If you genuinely think Powell is on the same level as Herro or provides the same production or impact, then there’s really not much to discuss. That’s just objectively false, it’s not even close when you actually look at usage, creation responsibility and role. Believe what you want, but at some point, facts are facts.

On the salary comps, Ja is on a standard rookie max, Kyrie is still making a massive salary at 33y coming off a major injury and Brunson is one of the big underpays in the league (a rare exception, not a standard setter). If Herro took the Brunson deal, it would be a huge win for the Heat but that’s just not a realistic expectation

Herro is mediocre or worse at pretty much everything that isn't shooting or scoring, and he isn't even an elite scorer. His only elite skill is shooting.

There is a huge reset in player values happening and Miami has a chance to get ahead of the curve. Why get stuck like Denver (Jamal Murray), Atlanta (Young), Orlando (Bane), Phoenix (Beal), Toronto (Ingram), or Philly (P George) paying outrageous sums for guys who aren't elite or even all-stars?

Do not make the mistake of confusing versatility with being better. There was a whole era of people looking for versatility -- guys who could "defend 5 positions" and point-forwards. For every KG, Grant Hill, Lamar Odom, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant, and Antoine Walker, you had Darius Miles, Ben Simmons, Tim Thomas, Billy Owens, Jonathan Bender, Nikola Tsikitichsvili (sp?), Jared Jeffries, Darko Milicic, Charlie Villanueva, Marvin Williams, Justise Winslow, KZ Okpala, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Yi Jianlin, Anthony Randolph....etc.

[SA37]

Why the hell are we still talking abut Duncan’s contract even after he’s gone

Because apparently people want to forget what happens when you give out bad contracts.

Have you reached out to the organisation about your concerns? Im sure it would be duly noted & appreciated.

How do you think we got Powell? You don't think that was Patrick's idea, do you?

[unowen85]

Marcus Smart would be a vet addition like Kevin Love. I don’t think he can start anymore, or even be the main backup. Just someone to come in the game in case of emergency. He’s pretty much quiet quitting on the Wizards roster and super out of shape, from what I saw when I went to a game.

[3ballbomber]

Because apparently people want to forget what happens when you give out bad contracts.

Have you reached out to the organisation about your concerns? Im sure it would be duly noted & appreciated.

How do you think we got Powell? You don't think that was Patrick's idea, do you?

What’s your point? I don’t give a damn who’s idea it was. It’s a Miami Heat FO collective action. That’s all that counts & we’ve steadily improved as a result. Im still uncertain what your argument even is.

[Bhut Jolokia]

If Ware continues to develop as expected the Heat could potentially have 5 fringe level All-Star players as starters with 6th man candidate. Powell was a snub last year. Wiggins was an All-Star in 2022, Herro in 2025 and Bam made it 3 times (2020, 2023 and 2024). A really strong #3-6 with Davion Mitchell as well.