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Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0

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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#941 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:00 pm

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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#942 » by MettaWorldPanda » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:00 pm

3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
MettaWorldPanda wrote:Looking at Duncan’s salary figure and it’s kind of mind numbing when i hear comments like Duncan is earning his money when i see a DJM and Rozier making between 18-24 lol. Yes Duncan is having a great year but for what he brings compared to those two should only be making 10-12 million tops. Duncan makes more than Strus and tbh i would rather have Strus. It’s all feels with Duncan. Feel good story of the year and i’m proud of him. Just think his salary figure is a bit of a crutch and worth overinflated. Nobody was talking about Duncan’s worth or fit last year when he was parked on the bench while Strus was earning his deal.


But from that standpoint then what is Herro worth? Duncan’s current contract or less?

Herro is getting a bit over paid himself but at his age your also paying for the upside so it's easier to defend.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#943 » by MettaWorldPanda » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:03 pm

I know some of you might hate this but I think a real screwed move would be to trade Duncan Robinson and Dru Smith to the Pistons for Bojan Bogdonovic. You get an upgrade over Duncan even though he's older. We get Duncan's contract off the books next year and can possibly sign Bogdonovic to a much more palatable contract. I think that's a lot better option than searching for Herro deals. Bogi can do what Robinson can do and then some.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#944 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:12 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:I know some of you might hate this but I think a real screwed move would be to trade Duncan Robinson and Dru Smith to the Pistons for Bojan Bogdonovic. You get an upgrade over Duncan even though he's older. We get Duncan's contract off the books next year and can possibly sign Bogdonovic to a much more palatable contract. I think that's a lot better option than searching for Herro deals. Bogi can do what Robinson can do and then some.


I had no clue we drafted him in 2011 lol
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#945 » by MettaWorldPanda » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:13 pm

3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
MettaWorldPanda wrote:I know some of you might hate this but I think a real screwed move would be to trade Duncan Robinson and Dru Smith to the Pistons for Bojan Bogdonovic. You get an upgrade over Duncan even though he's older. We get Duncan's contract off the books next year and can possibly sign Bogdonovic to a much more palatable contract. I think that's a lot better option than searching for Herro deals. Bogi can do what Robinson can do and then some.


I had no clue we drafted him in 2011 lol

Time to circle back lol. Duncan’s old college coach is John Beilein who’s a senior advisor with Pistons. Might be looking to swap out the older Bogi for Duncan and a few more years on deal.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#946 » by dshearn » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:19 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:Looking at Duncan’s salary figure and it’s kind of mind numbing when i hear comments like Duncan is earning his money when i see a DJM and Rozier making between 18-24 lol. Yes Duncan is having a great year but for what he brings compared to those two should only be making 10-12 million tops. Duncan makes more than Strus and tbh i would rather have Strus. It’s all feels with Duncan. Feel good story of the year and i’m proud of him. Just think his salary figure is a bit of a crutch and worth overinflated. Nobody was talking about Duncan’s worth or fit last year when he was parked on the bench while Strus was earning his deal.



My natural reaction to a MWP post is to assume it is probably correct.....

I will say though....if Strus is worth 14.5m shooting 33% from 3... ehhhh...well like you said...We put Duncan on the bench for shooting .328

At the end of the day, this year's Max Strus...is kinda like last year's Duncan... When you compare Max this year to Duncan this year... Yeah Duncan is getting paid 3.5m more per year....but Duncan is shooting better then Strus, is scoring more points on less shots, and creating more points off of assists then Strus...

I think most people would rather pay this year's Duncan 18m then to carry last year's Duncan at 14.5m
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#947 » by MettaWorldPanda » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:22 pm

dshearn wrote:
MettaWorldPanda wrote:Looking at Duncan’s salary figure and it’s kind of mind numbing when i hear comments like Duncan is earning his money when i see a DJM and Rozier making between 18-24 lol. Yes Duncan is having a great year but for what he brings compared to those two should only be making 10-12 million tops. Duncan makes more than Strus and tbh i would rather have Strus. It’s all feels with Duncan. Feel good story of the year and i’m proud of him. Just think his salary figure is a bit of a crutch and worth overinflated. Nobody was talking about Duncan’s worth or fit last year when he was parked on the bench while Strus was earning his deal.



My natural reaction to a MWP post is to assume it is probably correct.....

I will say though....if Strus is worth 14.5m shooting 33% from 3... ehhhh...well like you said...We put Duncan on the bench for shooting .328

At the end of the day, this year's Max Strus...is kinda like last year's Duncan... When you compare Max this year to Duncan this year... Yeah Duncan is getting paid 3.5m more per year....but Duncan is shooting better then Strus, is scoring more points on less shots, and creating more points off of assists then Strus...

I think most people would rather pay this year's Duncan 18m then to carry last year's Duncan at 14.5m

I like Strus’s all around game more. I also like that he can take it hard to the basket and yam when he needs too. He also played great within Spo’s system doing Duncan’s job but offering more in terms of athletic ability. I used to love to compare him to Thunder Dan during his time here.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#948 » by MettaWorldPanda » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:33 pm

“Herro said the Heat conveyed to his agent, Jeff Schwartz, during the summer that if he was going to be dealt, it would be for a top 75 (all time) player. So unless that changes, there aren’t many players that Herro would be dealt for.”

Herro is not getting traded or getting benched for Duncan. Schwartz is the one agent that is held to high esteem within this organization and that relationship will not be tarnished because you want to see Duncan start over him.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#949 » by twix2500 » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:35 pm

twix2500 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:Basketball-Reference Offensive Ratings 2023-24

Kyle Lowry = 117
Tyler Herro = 106
Jimmy Butler = 127
Jaquez Jr = 115
Adebayo = 114
Robinson = 118

Image


Basketball-Reference Offensive Ratings 2023-24

Dejonte Murray = 115
D'Angelo Russell= 115
Terry Rozier = 118
Spencer Dinwiddie =119
Kris Dunn = 117
Collin Sexton = 124



twix2500 wrote:
al bondiga wrote:Guys, ratings and stats don't mean much, Don't play the stupid game
Of numbers

By the way, I know why Everyone calls us A bandwagon fan base... We are supposed to hate Robinson half a year ago.
And now we love him?


Image

Josh Richardson = 114 OffRtg[/quote






Basketball-Reference Offensive Rating 2023-24
Max Strus = 109
Tyler Herro = 106

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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#950 » by MettaWorldPanda » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:41 pm

twix2500 wrote:Basketball-Reference Offensive Rating 2023-24
Max Strus = 109
Tyler Herro = 106

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Max Strus was one of my favorite players. I still would take Herro’s upside over him as things currently stand.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#951 » by twix2500 » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:53 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:
twix2500 wrote:Basketball-Reference Offensive Rating 2023-24
Max Strus = 109
Tyler Herro = 106

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Max Strus was one of my favorite players. I still would take Herro’s upside over him as things currently stand.
Let me ask you this. Regardless his age, is Herro's talent worth waiting?

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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#952 » by VaDe255 » Sun Jan 21, 2024 7:59 pm

twix2500 wrote:Basketball-Reference Offensive Rating 2023-24
Max Strus = 109
Tyler Herro = 106

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What is the point of doing this?
Either you don't understand this stat or are just trolling.

Offensive rating cannot be viewed in a vacuum, it is very much a usage dependant stat, meaning the bigger your role on the team is, the more difficult it will be to sustain a high offensive rating.
A simple example: Herro asked to run an iso play and create a shot on his own, compared to Max standing in the corner and wait till he gets a pass from DM for a wide open high quality 3p shot.
It also gets scaled up to 100 possessions, which even further scews it in favor of low usage, because only few usually high quality possessions are taken and scaled up.

You simply cannot compare players with different roles/usages with each other using this stat it literally makes no sense.

And of course it is also team dependant stat as well.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#953 » by MettaWorldPanda » Sun Jan 21, 2024 8:08 pm

twix2500 wrote:
MettaWorldPanda wrote:
twix2500 wrote:Basketball-Reference Offensive Rating 2023-24
Max Strus = 109
Tyler Herro = 106

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Max Strus was one of my favorite players. I still would take Herro’s upside over him as things currently stand.
Let me ask you this. Regardless his age, is Herro's talent worth waiting?

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Yes. He’s shown he can be a big shot maker but needs to settle into more of a niche role then giving him star caliber responsibilities. He’s got way too much ball handling duties on his plate.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#954 » by Grumpy Heat Fan » Sun Jan 21, 2024 8:28 pm

marson wrote:
RexBoyWonder wrote:TBH -

How willing are you to blow it all up?

I mean keep only the core - Jimmy, Bam and JJJ - and move EVERYTHING else to re-structure an entirely new team around them?

It's probably not likely, but honestly despite liking alot of "the others" - none of them seem to great fit, expet maybe Duncan. I'm talking positional fit, skillset fit, or age fit.

A Herro + Lowry + Jovic + Martin + Maybe Duncan + picks package can probably get you an entirely new supporting cast around Bam/Jimmy/JJJ.

Assuming those 3 will become 3 of our starts/closers, we'll need to get back a ready now stretch 4 to play between Jimmy and Bam (Like an older Jovic) and a scoring shooting PG to play next to JJJ (whos going to be our starting SG).

One example : (that package can probably get us a few decent options at every position)

Rozier (or Murray)
JJJ
Jimmy
Jeremy Grant
Bam

honestly isn't this a better team then we currently have? IDN...something just seems off with the chemistry currently.


No reason to blow it up Rex as we are still in the playoff hunt and I'm still confident about beating the Bucks and Celtics in a Bo7 with minor fixes.

With that said, Moving Lowry is a must at this point. He is becoming toxic to coach Spo and the locker room and should be put in his place.

If we get another star for Herro, Jovic, and Caleb. I would do it.

The reason why I won't trade Duncan as he is our best shooter, has the best chemistry with two of our best players (Bam and Jimmy), and only has 2 years remaining which is ironically a bargain contract now.


Riles has gotten complacent, fat and happy, from success.

The Riles of 2005... well, we lost in the ECF, just -ONCE-, and that inspired Riley to go out and trade half the team and bring in Jwill, Posey, Payton, etc.

And that was just ONE loss in the ECF. That's how hungry Riley was.


Now? Several playoff losses, ECF loss, TWO Finals losses... and riles is laying back with "run it back" on repeat.

it's sad bro.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#955 » by twix2500 » Sun Jan 21, 2024 8:39 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:
twix2500 wrote:
MettaWorldPanda wrote:Max Strus was one of my favorite players. I still would take Herro’s upside over him as things currently stand.
Let me ask you this. Regardless his age, is Herro's talent worth waiting?

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Yes. He’s shown he can be a big shot maker but needs to settle into more of a niche role then giving him star caliber responsibilities. He’s got way too much ball handling duties on his plate.
You believe he is not a star but a niche role player and that is worth the wait?

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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#956 » by MettaWorldPanda » Sun Jan 21, 2024 8:48 pm

twix2500 wrote:
MettaWorldPanda wrote:
twix2500 wrote:Let me ask you this. Regardless his age, is Herro's talent worth waiting?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yes. He’s shown he can be a big shot maker but needs to settle into more of a niche role then giving him star caliber responsibilities. He’s got way too much ball handling duties on his plate.
You believe he is not a star but a niche role player and that is worth the wait?

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At this current time he needs his role scaled back but at 24 it’s worth seeing how his talent plays out. He’s shown enough at this point to warrant that. Rather than them settle for Duncan as this franchises primary two/starter.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#957 » by SA37 » Sun Jan 21, 2024 8:51 pm

3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
SA37 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:Basketball-Reference

Tyler Herro
106 OffRtg, 114 DefRtg

Duncan Robinson
118 OffRtg, 117 DefRtg


These types of stats are misleading.

Herro is clearly a superior player to Robinson. Robinson has really improved and he is having his best statistical season since 20-21, but he is a limited player on both ends of the court. The issue with Herro, imo, is really about fit -- and there is an argument that Robinson has been a better fit this season.

I've berated the point that Herro won't take it to the next level until he can consistently get to the line (5+ fpg). You look at guards who are stars or perennial All-stars, like Booker (7 ftpg), D Mitchell (6.2), Curry (5.7), Morant (7.1), Lillard (8) versus borderline All-stars and below, like Lavine (4.1), Rozier (4.4), Clarkson (3.9 ), J Brown (4.4)...etc and it's clear who the big difference makers are.


Robinson may not be the better overall player but he’s the better winning player and that’s what we need.

As for the free throws, he definitely needs to increase them but those guys you mentioned above 5 are far, far superior players than Herro outside of just that.

I like that you mentioned Clarkson, I feel that’s what Herro is pretty close to. If you have Clarkson Herros usage and shot attempts you’d basically get the same results


The guy I didn't include who I think is Herro's best comp is CJ McCollum. Clarkson is a good comp too, though.

Robinson is clearly a role player, whereas Herro could in theory be the 3rd best player on a championship contender and is a guy who can make and take big shots. I don't know if Herro will take the next step, but he literally just turned 24 yesterday. It's also worth remembering Herro also happens to play for a team that tends to rank near the bottom for offense.

Miami needs more talent, but Herro seems to be more valuable on Miami's roster versus whatever teams would trade for him, which is kind of the case for guys like Clarkson, Rozier, or Lavine. I mean, why pay a premium for Lavine or Herro when you can get a cheaper comp in Clarkson, Rozier, or Buddy Hield?
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#958 » by MettaWorldPanda » Sun Jan 21, 2024 9:00 pm

SA37 wrote:
3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
SA37 wrote:
These types of stats are misleading.

Herro is clearly a superior player to Robinson. Robinson has really improved and he is having his best statistical season since 20-21, but he is a limited player on both ends of the court. The issue with Herro, imo, is really about fit -- and there is an argument that Robinson has been a better fit this season.

I've berated the point that Herro won't take it to the next level until he can consistently get to the line (5+ fpg). You look at guards who are stars or perennial All-stars, like Booker (7 ftpg), D Mitchell (6.2), Curry (5.7), Morant (7.1), Lillard (8) versus borderline All-stars and below, like Lavine (4.1), Rozier (4.4), Clarkson (3.9 ), J Brown (4.4)...etc and it's clear who the big difference makers are.


Robinson may not be the better overall player but he’s the better winning player and that’s what we need.

As for the free throws, he definitely needs to increase them but those guys you mentioned above 5 are far, far superior players than Herro outside of just that.

I like that you mentioned Clarkson, I feel that’s what Herro is pretty close to. If you have Clarkson Herros usage and shot attempts you’d basically get the same results


The guy I didn't include who I think is Herro's best comp is CJ McCollum. Clarkson is a good comp too, though.

Robinson is clearly a role player, whereas Herro could in theory be the 3rd best player on a championship contender and is a guy who can make and take big shots. I don't know if Herro will take the next step, but he literally just turned 24 yesterday. It's also worth remembering Herro also happens to play for a team that tends to rank near the bottom for offense.

Miami needs more talent, but Herro seems to be more valuable on Miami's roster versus whatever teams would trade for him, which is kind of the case for guys like Clarkson, Rozier, or Lavine. I mean, why pay a premium for Lavine or Herro when you can get a cheaper comp in Clarkson, Rozier, or Buddy Hield?

Well said!
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#959 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Sun Jan 21, 2024 9:08 pm

SA37 wrote:
3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
SA37 wrote:
These types of stats are misleading.

Herro is clearly a superior player to Robinson. Robinson has really improved and he is having his best statistical season since 20-21, but he is a limited player on both ends of the court. The issue with Herro, imo, is really about fit -- and there is an argument that Robinson has been a better fit this season.

I've berated the point that Herro won't take it to the next level until he can consistently get to the line (5+ fpg). You look at guards who are stars or perennial All-stars, like Booker (7 ftpg), D Mitchell (6.2), Curry (5.7), Morant (7.1), Lillard (8) versus borderline All-stars and below, like Lavine (4.1), Rozier (4.4), Clarkson (3.9 ), J Brown (4.4)...etc and it's clear who the big difference makers are.


Robinson may not be the better overall player but he’s the better winning player and that’s what we need.

As for the free throws, he definitely needs to increase them but those guys you mentioned above 5 are far, far superior players than Herro outside of just that.

I like that you mentioned Clarkson, I feel that’s what Herro is pretty close to. If you have Clarkson Herros usage and shot attempts you’d basically get the same results


The guy I didn't include who I think is Herro's best comp is CJ McCollum. Clarkson is a good comp too, though.

Robinson is clearly a role player, whereas Herro could in theory be the 3rd best player on a championship contender and is a guy who can make and take big shots. I don't know if Herro will take the next step, but he literally just turned 24 yesterday. It's also worth remembering Herro also happens to play for a team that tends to rank near the bottom for offense.

Miami needs more talent, but Herro seems to be more valuable on Miami's roster versus whatever teams would trade for him, which is kind of the case for guys like Clarkson, Rozier, or Lavine. I mean, why pay a premium for Lavine or Herro when you can get a cheaper comp in Clarkson, Rozier, or Buddy Hield?


I really hope he can increase his level of play between now and next seasons deadline. We need other teams to somewhat value him. Whether that’s trading him a 2 1sts for Mitchell or sending him out to a 3rd team for a pick or 2 to reroute for Mitchell. Could possibly not be Mitchell but you get the point.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0 

Post#960 » by MettaWorldPanda » Sun Jan 21, 2024 9:22 pm

3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
SA37 wrote:
3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Robinson may not be the better overall player but he’s the better winning player and that’s what we need.

As for the free throws, he definitely needs to increase them but those guys you mentioned above 5 are far, far superior players than Herro outside of just that.

I like that you mentioned Clarkson, I feel that’s what Herro is pretty close to. If you have Clarkson Herros usage and shot attempts you’d basically get the same results


The guy I didn't include who I think is Herro's best comp is CJ McCollum. Clarkson is a good comp too, though.

Robinson is clearly a role player, whereas Herro could in theory be the 3rd best player on a championship contender and is a guy who can make and take big shots. I don't know if Herro will take the next step, but he literally just turned 24 yesterday. It's also worth remembering Herro also happens to play for a team that tends to rank near the bottom for offense.

Miami needs more talent, but Herro seems to be more valuable on Miami's roster versus whatever teams would trade for him, which is kind of the case for guys like Clarkson, Rozier, or Lavine. I mean, why pay a premium for Lavine or Herro when you can get a cheaper comp in Clarkson, Rozier, or Buddy Hield?


I really hope he can increase his level of play between now and next seasons deadline. We need other teams to somewhat value him. Whether that’s trading him a 2 1sts for Mitchell or sending him out to a 3rd team for a pick or 2 to reroute for Mitchell. Could possibly not be Mitchell but you get the point.

So you shouldn’t be rooting for Herro to come off the bench in favor of Duncan. The focus should remain in fixing the two glaring holes in the starting lineup which is at PG and finding a vet upgrade to slot in for our wet behind the ears 20 year old PF. I’d rather sacrifice trading Duncan but if we don’t have to all good. If we are swinging for the fences then trading Lowry for Rozier and Duncan for Bogi gives us two premier scoring players to add to the starting unit. It also gives us optimal financial flexibility going into next year.

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