Preseaon= 3 weeks. Thoughts on this Heat lineup fix.

[DieHardBallFan]

I been thinking and I really feel this is the lineup to give Heat their first 70 win season which at this point there is no reason the Big 3 era shouldn't have accomplished it by now.

PG Wade
SG Allen
SF Lebron
PF Haslem
C Bosh

Keep in mind this is a "non official" position lineup. Meaning more times then not Lebron will be taking the ball up the court acting as a fill in PG. But defensively the positions stand, if you understand.

This creates an deadly perimeter and a incredibly efficient paint defense.

Some bonus's will be;
A vast improvement in bench play
MAJOR defensive boost compared to last season starting 5.
A much higher perimeter threat clearing space for players like Bosh and James to drive and do work
Give Allen the confidence boost and pressure he needs to perform.

Looking for some opinions and maybe your idea for a new lineup? Thanks

[Pimpwerx]

We will never win 70 games. I'm willing to bet a large amount of money on this. I just don't think this squad gives enough **** about the regular season to sustain that level of performance. PEACE.

[Myam333]

We will never win 70 games. I'm willing to bet a large amount of money on this. I just don't think this squad gives enough **** about the regular season to sustain that level of performance. PEACE.

Very well said.

No ****s are given during the regular season unless we play a contender.

[SmushedPennies]

Yup, especially since the league has moved away from trying to win all 82 games. You didn't use to see stars sat after clinching seeds, for example.

Are you suggesting this as a starting lineup? If so, it wouldn't happen. There's just no way we'd roll out a lineup to start games that requires Wade (or LeBron) to guard PGs. While it would cause matchup hell for opposing defenses, both have adamantly opposed it. We'll see PG-less lineups for stretches as long as LeWade are here, but not starting games.

Udonis is a frontrunner to start at PF, but he needs to prove he's passed last year's play. Basically it comes down to who can bounce back best after disappointing seasons last year: UD or Rashard.

As a fan of exciting basketball, I admittedly lean toward hoping for Rashard to grab the spot, as he spreads the lanes even wider for Dwyane and LeBron, and can even post up or create his own shot when on his game. He's taller than UD, though not the rebounder. UD's rebounding might continue to be well-served off the bench.

As far as our elite mid-game/closing lineup, I like one a poster mentioned recently (sorry, forget who):

Chalmers
Allen
Wade
LeBron
Bosh

Ever since we signed Allen I've felt our best offensive lineup should be with Chalmers and Allen supporting the big 3. Chalmers showed last season he was clearly the fourth best offensive option. Allen should take that title from him, which shows how potent that lineup can be. All five players can create their own shot, as well as creating for each other, and Wade/LeBron are the only non-spot-up shooters. Chalmers being on the floor gives the Heat another guy who can feed Allen the ball in his sweet spots, as well as everyone else on the floor. Putting a ball-handler/floor-spacer on the floor with a floor-spacer/off-the-ball dynamo/capable shot creator along with LeBron and Bosh creating mismatches up front will make it very difficult for opposing teams to matchup against, especially while trying to keep their best players/combinations on the floor. The ball movement and spacing would be ludicrous.

Defensively, I don't think that lineup is at as much of a disadvantage as some might think. The only player technically undersized would be Wade playing the 3. However, just about every team is going to three guard lineups during the thick of games, and even if they're not, Wade plays way bigger than his size, in part due to his length and strength. Let's not forget, Daequan Cook played successful D on multiple quality SFs (including LeBron) his last couple of seasons here, and he's shorter (in height and length), and slighter than Wade. Wouldn't be surprised if Wade would prefer to guard SFs over PGs. He hates chasing guys around, and SFs are usually more stationery. We're not going to line him up against Melo or Durant, but guys like Danny Granger, Evan Turner, Marvin Williams, and many bench SFs are realistic.

As an example, assuming Indiana's best lineup is their starting lineup...

Chalmers - Augustin
Allen - George
Wade - Granger
LeBron - West
Bosh - Hibbert

They'd probably switch Granger and George. Everything looks fine until you get to LeBron. That's just an example of a situation that would arise against many teams. For instance, what would you feel more uneasy about: LeBron guarding Pau, or Pau guarding LeBron?

This kind of line-up might be a way to get teams away from playing two classic bigs. As was stated by the poster who recently brought it up, you can't defend any of those perimeter players with a big the way you could come closer to getting away with against a Battier, Miller, or Jones. This is why I believe we may see Battier and Lewis play nearly exclusively at PF.

Our 3 stars give us a great advantage by having skills/speed of players typically at least a position smaller than their natural spot, while being able to play as big as players in the position one spot up. Expect to see us use that to its advantageous limits.

[truthiness]

I been thinking and I really feel this is the lineup to give Heat their first 70 win season which at this point there is no reason the Big 3 era shouldn't have accomplished it by now.

PG Wade
SG Allen
SF Lebron
PF Haslem
C Bosh

Keep in mind this is a "non official" position lineup. Meaning more times then not Lebron will be taking the ball up the court acting as a fill in PG. But defensively the positions stand, if you understand.

This creates an deadly perimeter and a incredibly efficient paint defense.

No, it doesn't.
Unless you misspelled Dwight Howard and are under the impression that he's on Heat's roster.

Here are the problems on D with your line-up:

1. Ray Ray is a liability and would get abused by opposing SG's

2. Wade is not quick enough to stay with quick opposing PG's - which is something the league has in abundance

3. Haslem is older and lost a step. As much as I like him, he will have trouble with lots of opposing PF's

4. Bosh is slightly undersized at C

5. No shotblocking in the paint, needed especially to cover Ray's and Wade's asses when they get beaten by their men

Some bonus's will be;
A vast improvement in bench play
MAJOR defensive boost compared to last season starting 5.
A much higher perimeter threat clearing space for players like Bosh and James to drive and do work
Give Allen the confidence boost and pressure he needs to perform.

Looking for some opinions and maybe your idea for a new lineup? Thanks

You're pretty much wrong on all accounts.
What should happen is:

1. Wade gets to play fewer minutes per game which accomplishes 2 things:
- saves his legs
- leaves enough minutes for Ray Ray, who'll be his back-up

2. Chalmers gets to start. He earned it last season and he's always been terribly underrated on these forums, sometimes by the same people who wanted Pittman to start, which is effing ridiculous.

3. Cole should get plenty of minutes to get his confidence back up and get him ready for the playoffs.

4. Battier starts at the 3/4 with Lebron when Bosh plays C

5. Against bad/mediocre teams with big frontcourts I prefer to start Bosh at PF and have a scrub at C, to save Bosh's body when you can win despite being slightly dominated in the paint.

If you need shooting that bad, you can insert Lewis at PF and move Bosh at C.

6. You have a bench of Cole, Allen, Miller, JJ, Haslem, Lewis, Joel and a couple more scrubs. That's pretty damn good. 4 former starters with quite a lot of experience between them. Cole, Joel and Haslem (to some extent) can be the energy guys, the rest are the veterans that come in to knock down shots and relieve pressure on the big 3.

7. The Heat should play A TON OF ZONE D. Zone is the ideal D for an undersized team that is fast and athletic. You cut penetration, you negate the opponents' size advantage, you negate their P&R play and you force the opponents to beat you with long shots, basically forcing them to beat you at your game (as it's clear that the Heat are going for small ball and lots of 3's with how many shooters they have).

The only downside is that you give more off rebounds, but that is already a problem with the current D that has players scrambling all over the floor. The zone would also be less demanding on players as they won't have to constantly cover great distances on the floor to cover for one another.

[RexBoyWonder]

John Hollinger's Miami Heat: 2012-13 roster Analysis

(FROM ESPN INSIDER)

Player Profiles: Miami Heat


Here are my player scouting reports and 2012-13 projections for the Miami Heat. (Note: Projections are for players who played 500 or more minutes in the NBA in '11-12.)


PROJECTED STARTERS


MARIO CHALMERS, PG

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections

PTS REB AST PER
13.1 3.7 5.1 12.8
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Spot-up shooting point guard who rarely penetrates. Good 3-point shooter.
+ Subpar ballhandler prone to wild turnovers. Professionalism a concern.
+ Good size for guard and great hands, but lacks great quickness. Foul prone.

Analysis
Chalmers finally became the player Miami needed him to be last season, taking more than half his shots from beyond the arc and nailing 38.8 percent to post the sixth-best true shooting percentage among point guards. That's what the Heat required -- a low-usage, high-efficiency sniper -- and he built on it by also having one of the best 2-point shooting marks (51.6 percent) at his position.

Chalmers is still nobody's idea of a point guard, inexplicably having one of the worst turnover rates at his position despite being asked to do very little ball-handling and creating, but on this team his skill set fits as long as he's making jumpers. He's a solid candidate to regress, unfortunately, as he'd never shot this well before.

Defensively, Chalmers has always had decent size and excellent hands (11th at his position in steals per minute), but last season was the first where you could say he was a plus overall. The Heat gave up 3.8 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, opposing point guards had a 14.6 PER against him according to 82games.com, and Synergy placed him in the top half of point guards. Fast point guards still give him fits, but overall he did solid work.


DWYANE WADE, SG

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections

PTS REB AST PER
25.8 6.0 5.4 24.8
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Electrifying wing with blinding quickness, long arms and quick leaping ability.
+ Great at splitting pick-and-rolls. Poor shooter but draws heaps of fouls with fakes.
+ Ball-hawking defender but gambles too much. Amazing shot-blocker for his size.

Analysis
Wade is 6-foot-4, but he doesn't play anything like his size. Look just at his stats and you'd think he was a power forward -- Wade's rates of blocked shots, free throws and shots in the basket area seems much more in line with that position than his own, while he also punches far above his weight as a rebounder.

In particular, Wade's rate of 1.51 blocks per 40 minutes was simply amazing -- every other player with that high a rate was at least three inches taller. Meanwhile, he combined those skills with the quickness of a point guard, ranking fifth at his position in steals per minute and 15th in pure point rating. Alas, the other area where he acted like a big man was in transition defense, where Wade often lumbered back slowly.

Offensively, Wade pretty much ditched the 3-pointer and focused on his midrange game last season, and the change helped: He hit 42.3 percent of his long 2s. Unfortunately his true shooting percentage still fell because he drew dramatically fewer fouls than a year earlier. Wade's free-throw rate was still among the best in the game, but at 30 years old this may be the first sign that he's starting to lose some of his burst.

Not that he's lost much: He still led all shooting guards in PER and ranked third overall. But he needed his knee drained to get through the season and had surgery on it afterward, and the Heat kept him to 49 games and 33 minutes per contest. His physical frailty may be one of the bigger obstacles to the Heat repeating.




LeBRON JAMES, SF

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections

PTS REB AST PER
28.4 8.3 7.3 29.7
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Bruising wing with a point guard's handle and a center's body. Deadly at rim.
+ Solid outside shooter who has added left-block post game. Can pass and create.
+ Outstanding rebounder. Excellent defensive player who can guard 1 through 5.

Analysis
LeBron James was only 18th among small forwards in offensive rebound rate, barely placing him in the top third at his position. He really needs to work on that.

Otherwise:

• He led the league in PER, with one of the highest marks of all time.
• He was first among SFs in shooting percentage, 2-point shooting percentage, and usage rate.
• He was second at his position in points per minute, TS%, and defensive rebound rate.
• He was third in pure point rating, free-throw rate, and overall rebound rate.
• He had the fourth-lowest foul rate among SFs, and yet was fifth in steals per minute.

James nearly led the NBA in shooting percentage at the rim (see chart), at a phenomenal 75.4 percent, and took more shots there than all but four players. He added a post game, improved his floater, and made his midrange jumpers. As a result he was fourth in the league in shooting from 3-to-15 feet.

Top shooting percentage at the rim, 2011-12
Player Team FG%
Tyson Chandler NY 75.8
LeBron James Mia 75.4
Andre Iguodala Phi 75.2
Dwight Howard Orl 74.4
Blake Griffin LAC 73.7
Min. 150 attempts. Source: Hoopdata.com
Want more? He shot 3-pointers better than the league average for the first time in his career and set career highs in true shooting percentage, rebound rate, and shooting percentage. He won MVP of the Finals and hit the biggest shot of the season while fighting off leg cramps; before that, in a seven-game conference finals against the league's best defensive team, he averaged 33.6 points on 52.7 percent shooting.

James defended all five positions, many times in the same game, and defended all of them well. Opposing small forwards had just a 10.6 PER against him, according to 82games.com

About the only thing I could genuinely criticize is his 77.1 free-throw percentage, which was slightly below the average for small forwards. Otherwise he had a decent year.



SHANE BATTIER, SF

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections

PTS REB AST PER
8.4 4.4 2.3 9.4
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Heady defender who takes advantage of length and rarely makes mistakes.
+ Good corner 3-point shooter but has a slow, low release. Good at post entry.
+ Can't create at all but can make hooks from post. Has the size to play 4 in stretches.

Analysis
Battier was great in the Finals, but what made that so surprising was his fairly abysmal regular season. He shot just 38.7 percent, rebounded like a guard, and scored an anemic 8.3 points per 40 minutes.

Most of his shots were 3s, but he made just 33.9 percent from deep and hardly ever got to the cup, earning only 37 free-throw attempts the entire season. As a result, his true shooting percentage was below the league average -- not a great result for a low-usage floor-spacer. Battier's only positive offensive contributions were his passing and avoidance of turnovers; he finished eighth among small forwards in pure point rating.

Defensively, Battier had more zip, but again his regular season paled next to his postseason. He ranked among the top dozen small forwards in both blocks and steals, but the Heat defended slightly better with him off the court -- the first time in eons we've been able to say that about Battier -- and Synergy rated him in the middle of the pack among small forwards.

And while Battier hurt the Thunder in the Finals, up 'til that point his playoffs had been pretty humdrum too. Through the first three rounds, his shooting and scoring rates were even worse than in the regular season.

Even at that production level, Battier has his uses as a multi-position defender and quasi-floor spacer. But the Heat should be wary of further slippage from the 33-year-old and can't overreact to a particularly well-timed five-game stretch of quality.


CHRIS BOSH, PF

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections

PTS REB AST PER
19.9 9.4 2.1 18.6
(Stats are per 40 minutes)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Lanky, left-handed, high-scoring forward who can shoot, drive and finish.
+ Excels at taking opposing bigs off dribble to draw fouls. Has 3-point range.
+ Mobile defender who has vastly improved. Lacks strength. Rarely fouls.

Analysis
Bosh's scoring and rebounding numbers took a hit when he came to Miami, with the rebounding drop in particular proving confounding. But one area where he hasn't received enough credit is his defense. Bosh basically switched to being a full-time 5 in the playoffs despite his lack of muscle and handled the job admirably. Meanwhile, he was a defensive force all season because of his improved focus combined with tremendous mobility for his size.

For the year Bosh rated among the top 10 defensive bigs in the league, according to Synergy. Opposing centers had only a 12.4 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and the Heat gave up 1.3 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court. This is the Bosh we didn't see in Toronto, although to be fair he had a lot less help up there.

Offensively, Bosh was vitally important for Miami as well, providing the spacing and scoring threat that Miami's other bigs couldn't. Bosh shot 66.5 percent in the basket area with a high free-throw rate, but just as potent was his 42.3 percent mark on jumpers beyond 10 feet. Bosh even hit 10 3-pointers, and then added a few more to beat Boston in Game 7 of the conference finals.

The other notable facet of Bosh's game is how rarely he fouls. Only four power forwards were whistled less than his 2.55 personals per 40 minutes, despite the fact he played center nearly as often as the 4. As a result, he's able to stay on the court -- and impact the game -- for much longer stretches than most bigs.

[RexBoyWonder]

RESERVES :



RAY ALLEN, SG

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
14.7 3.7 2.9 13.2
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ All-time great outside shooter who excels at moving off screens for jumpers.
+ Average athlete but has good handle for his size. Subpar defender but competes.
+ Money foul shooter. Rarely creates for self. Outstanding conditioning.

Analysis
The shift to Miami may come at a perfect time for Allen. Last season he did the same things he's always done, he just did them less often -- his usage rate was a career low and he averaged just 16.7 points per 40 minutes as a result. But unlike Boston, the Heat don't need Allen to create shots, just to knock down the wide-open ones that James and Wade create for him.

The evidence he can do that is overwhelming. Last season was his fourth straight with a true shooting percentage in the 60s, placing him fourth among shooting guards in 2011-12. Nearly half his shots were 3s and he nailed 45.3 percent. For good measure he hit 91.5 percent from the line, although his free throw rate was down from in previous seasons.

Allen only made 37.7 percent of his long 2s -- a shot he may rarely take this season -- and had just 53 buckets at the rim the entire season, but his ball-handling numbers remained solid and his rebound rate was passable too.

Defensively, Allen competes but he's tailed off. Boston allowed 5.2 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, and while that isn't entirely connected just to him, the uptick when Avery Bradley replaced him was immediately noticeable. Having LeBron and Wade around will spare him the tougher defensive matchups, however, and he's a solid team defender.


UDONIS HASLEM, PF

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
10.0 11.7 1.0 11.1
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Tough, smart, pick-and-pop power forward whose jump shot abandoned him.
+ Not a great athlete but a solid, low-mistake defender. Rarely creates own shot.
+ Limited post game. Undersized 4 but strong, physical. Good rebounder for size.

Analysis
Haslem's pick-and-pop game lost its pop last season. He has normally feasted on midrange jump shots, but last season he converted only 35.5 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet, a development that left him without much of a role offensively. Haslem had the eighth-worst true shooting percentage at his position and an unusually high turnover rate for a catch-and-shoot player, leaving him both a low-usage and a low-efficiency proposition.

On the other hand, one thing Haslem did well was rebound. He finished seventh among power forwards in rebound rate, including third on the defensive glass, and that's mostly an effort thing for the undersized Haslem.

Haslem also did a lot of dirty work in the frontcourt, even moving to center at times and holding his own at 6-8. I've felt his D has been overrated in the past, but last season was pure quality -- Synergy gave him the best rating on the Heat and the sixth-best in the entire league, while the Heat gave up 2.2 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court.

Moreover, there's a good chance his shooting malaise will recover. Short-term blips in long-range shooting percentages are common, and Haslem still shot 81.4 percent from the line, so clearly the stroke is still there. He's probably not a starter anymore, but if he goes back to making 15-footers he'll be a plus off the bench.


MIKE MILLER, SF

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
10.7 7.2 2.5 10.3
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Big wing with textbook shooting form. Excellent, underrated rebounder.
+ Reluctant shooter who rarely attacks and forces passes. Never draws fouls.
+ Solid defender against most 3s thanks to size, but too slow to defend 2s.

Analysis
During the regular season and playoffs, Miller had scored more than 20 points in game just once in his first 120 games with the Miami Heat. In the 121st game, however, he scored 23 points in 23 minutes, making 7 of 8 3-pointers, helping the Heat clinch the NBA title in one of the great performances in NBA playoff annals.

Miller's outlier was both extreme and extremely well-timed, but shouldn't distract from the big-picture of his disappointing campaign. He played only 39 games, as his body was clearly breaking down, and had the rather amazing statistic of only taking five free throw attempts the entire season.

Yes, five. Yes, all season. And he didn't even earn one of them  he got to shoot a technical foul shot against New Orleans.

As the chart shows, Miller was in a league of his own as far as free throw infrequency goes. What the chart doesn't show is that Miller didn't have just the lowest mark of any player in 2011-12; he had the lowest mark in the history of the NBA. The previous record-holder, Brad Lohaus in 1995-96, had five free throw attempts in 175 field goal attempts, for a rate of 0.03.

Fewest free throw attempts per field goal attempt, 2011-12
Player Team FTA/FGA
Mike Miller Mia 0.02
Troy Murphy LAL 0.05
Matt Bonner SA 0.06
Sasha Pavlovic Bos 0.06
Mike Bibby NY 0.06
Min. 500 minutes
Otherwise, Miller was deadly on 3s (45.3 percent) but again a reluctant participant -- only three small forwards had a lower usage rate. He filled out the box score, ranking third in rebound rate, but he so rarely put his deadly shot into action that he was still a net negative offensively. That's party of what made his outburst in the Finals so shocking -- convincing him to shoot the rock was half the battle.


RASHARD LEWIS, SF

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
12.4 6.0 1.5 10.3
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Tall combo forward with deadly corner 3 and effective left-block post game.
+ Subpar ball handler who has lost athleticism. Poor rebounder and finisher.
+ Solid team defender but struggles one-on-one against post-up 4s.

Analysis
Lewis looked utterly uninterested in Washington, and that fact was illustrated in his play. An alleged floor-spacer who shoots 16-of-68 on 3s is a bit of a problem, and that was one reason Lewis's PER dipped into single digits. More encouragingly, the Wizards tried to indulge his left-block post game and that proved effective at times.

Still, this was a brutal campaign any way you slice it. He was below the league median for small forwards in every single metric except rebound rate (by a whisker) and free throw percentage. Washington played substantially better defense with him off the floor; in fact, we should all make a pact that he never tries to guard the wing again. Perhaps worst was that he only shot 44.8 percent on 2s, with low rates of free throws and assists -- in other words, even setting aside the 3-point disaster, he still wasn't any good.

At 32 it's not clear what he has left, but he'll have more motivation in Miami than he did in Washington (trust me, he can't have less), and he may be able to make a living shooting standstill corner 3s.

JOEL ANTHONY, C

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
5.2 7.0 0.3 8.4
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Undersized, energetic center with excellent mobility and shot-blocking skill.
+ Brutal offensive player. Can't shoot, has terrible hands and no instincts.
+ Poor rebounder despite athleticism, especially on defense. Solid foul shooter.

Analysis
The Canadian southpaw made enough dunks and layups to be something less than a total liability offensively last season. His league-worst usage rate from 2011-12 jumped up to merely the third-worst, and his true shooting percentage ranked eighth-best among centers -- although it still produced only 6.5 points per 40 minutes. Hey, baby steps.

Anthony's secret weakness is that he's also a terrible rebounder, posting the fourth-worst rebound rate among centers. He has trouble catching the ball and will take himself out of position going for blocks; in fact he's even worse on the defensive glass than offensively.

However, defense is where his value lies. Anthony isn't terribly physical, but he's a mobile pick-and-roll defender who can block shots, so overall he's a plus at this end. Unfortunately, it doesn't offset his problems on offense, and basically renders him a situational player who has seen far too much daylight over the past two seasons.


NORRIS COLE, PG

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
14.3 2.8 4.3 8.6
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Quick point guard who struggles to make shots. Must improve 3-point game.
+ Disappointed as a passer and ballhandler. Iffy court vision, too many turnovers.
+ Solid defender, especially against quick guards, but fouled far too often.

Analysis
We're sure this guy was a point guard in college? Cole looked at times like a really short power forward, committing turnovers in bunches while virtually never locating open teammates. His Assist Rate was the fourth worst among point guards and his pure point rating the second worst, a distressing -1.30.

This may have resulted partly from trying to do too much; Cole had the Heat's fourth-highest usage rate and nearly caught Chris Bosh for third. Clearly that shouldn't have been the case, as too often Cole's attempts to create produced wild dribbling that ended with him trapped in an unwieldy spot.

Cole only hit 34.0 percent on 3s in his last two college seasons and this looms as his other big weakness as a pro -- his rookie campaign finished at 27.6 percent. He simply has to shoot better to hold down a gig, because he's not going to score at the rim enough to make a living.

Defensively, Cole redeemed himself enough to earn playoff minutes against quick guards. The Heat defended much better with him off the court, but Synergy gave him solid grades and opposing point guards had only a 12.5 PER against him, according to 82games.com.

His biggest problem on defense was all the fouling; only eight point guards were whistled more per minute even though he had just an average rate of steals. Additionally, Cole was fairly worthless on the glass, sporting the fifth-worst defensive rebound rate in the league.


JAMES JONES, SF

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
11.4 3.1 1.3 9.4
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Shooting SF who has replaced cobwebs as item most commonly seen in corners.
+ Never, ever, ever attacks the basket. Rarely even dribbles. Low-turnover player.
+ Poor athlete, but has good size for 3 and plays passable defense. Bad rebounder.

Analysis
Jones has played 2,217 minutes over the past two seasons and taken one shot in the basket area.

One.

Last season he didn't take any, and didn't make a shot inside 10 feet the entire season. Meanwhile, more than three-quarters of his tries came from beyond the 3-point line. Jones made 40.4 percent of them, too, producing one of the best true shooting percentages at his position, and once again did it with one of the lowest turnover rates in all of basketball. He also drew a surprising number of fouls for a pure catch-and-shoot guy who never penetrated.

But Jones still wasn't a very valuable player because of all his other limitations. For starters he can't create his own shot at all, not even a little bit. Defensively, his lack of mobility makes him something of a liability. While he has good size and competes, he can't play the trapping, attacking style Miami prefers. He's also useless on the glass, sporting the league's worst rebound rate among small forwards at an embarrassing 4.4 -- this was a worse mark than that of all but nine of the league's point guards.

In sum, he's a fringe rotation player if he's making 3s and worthless if he's not. Once Miami found alternate solutions to its floor-spacing conundrums in the playoffs, it was a pretty easy call to leave him on the pine.


DEXTER PITTMAN, C

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
N/A N/A N/A N/A
(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season )

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Powerful physical force around basket with wide body. Conditioning a concern.
+ Short for a center but has long arms. Good hands. Poor foul shooter.
+ Can defend post but lacks mobility. Staggeringly foul-prone.

Analysis
Pittman's most notable achievement was his indefensible cheap shot on Indiana's Lance Stephenson in the playoffs, but he also got into 35 regular-season games and wasn't half bad. An old-school center in a new-school league, Pittman can establish deep post position and make short shots in the paint, leading to a solid 14.1 points per 40 minutes average. He also rebounded at a solid clip for a center.

Unfortunately, he still doesn't do a whole lot else. Defensively he's only useful against another big center, where he can bang in the paint and won't have to move. Otherwise, he picks up fouls at such an alarming rate that it's difficult to keep him on the court -- nearly one foul every four minutes last season. He doesn't block shots either, and he's a liability in transition and pick-and-roll defense. Thus, his utility is likely to remain quite limited, until or unless he improves his conditioning to the point where he doesn't foul on nearly every play.


JOSH HARRELLSON, C

Hollinger's 2012-13 Projections
PTS REB AST PER
12.2 10.0 0.8 13.6
(Stats are per 40 minutes)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scouting report
+ Wide-body who crashes boards at both ends. Has 3-point range.
+ Undersized for a 5 and on the heavy side. Lacks lateral quickness and leaping ability.
+ Lacks post game and can't create offense. Pure pick-and-pop guy.

Analysis
Harrellson is a "4.5" who isn't quite tall or athletic enough to play center but doesn't move well enough to play the 4. That wasn't a death knell for him careerwise, however, because of his surprising emergence as a 3-point threat during his rookie season -- a skill he rarely displayed at Kentucky. Harrellson shot 33.9 percent on 3s, which isn't great, but it gave him an offensive function and came at virtually zero cost in turnovers. No center took a higher proportion of his shots from behind the arc than Mr. Jorts.

Harrellson's other skill is his rebounding; although he can't jump, his rebound rate was solid for a center. That's true even at the offensive end, a surprise given how often he was 25 feet from the rim.

Harrellson had strong defensive plus/minus numbers last season in limited action, but let's not take this too far. He can't protect the rim at all; his value is that he's willing to bang and he's usually in the right place. However, his skill set seems a strong fit for a team like Miami, where he can hang out on the perimeter and wait for others to set him up.

[flashwade33]

Guys, this is going to be our starting 5 sans injuries this season:

Rio
Wade
LBJ
Bosh
Joel

Seems familiar? Joel is going to start in the regular season. And I like it. No reason to make Bosh defend Cs all season long. Joel gives us great P&R and rotation defense, as well as energy. I think we need to use him all season for sure.

[DefenseWins]

I don't see Rio there.... Rio is going to start.

This team is all about how they finish and not start. Rio's going to start, Allen off the bench. Allen makes our bench look very good, especially if he hits a couple of 3's.

I'm very interested to see the line ups. Especially with Rashard Lewis coming off the bench too. But then there's UD... Pitt... I am not sure Jorts will play a lot, he doesn't know the system. HOWEVER, there's an actual training camp this year so it might change.

Spo will have his hands full because we have A LOT of guys who can contribute.

Heck I even forgot about good ole Shane. Miller. Cole. We're stacked haha.

[Zasterror]

Rio has to start. We are a much better defensive team with him starting than Ray Allen starting.

[Pimpwerx]

I think Hollinger is hard on Cole. I think his usage rate was really high early in the season, and then he was almost always tasked with bringing the ball up the court, whereas Rio wasn't. He's our 3rd best ballhandler, which is why he almost caught Bosh in usage.

His poor shooting was his own fault, but I'm really surprised his turnover rate was that high. Was that from midseason when he had a strong of really bad performances? I didn't realize he was that sloppy with the ball.

The fouling he can get under control. He's a smart guy, and he can figure it out. I don't think the defensive stats tell the full story. He was usually out there with Miller and/or Jones, who are defensive sieves. I felt a lot of times our defense actually looked better with him in than Rio. The game against Denver is a good example of this. Ty Lawson was torching Rio, but Cole helped contain him a lot better.

As for rebounds, he was tasked with initiating the break, so he rarely got into the paint to grab boards. He would usually setup at the wing to receive the outlet pass off a miss.

I expect big things from Cole, though I'm no longer on that "he needs to start" crack I was smoking early last season. LOL! Looking back, I can admit I really got caught up in the Cole World hype.

I think he looked competent as a floor general in Summer League, although he still has a propensity to call his own number when he loses confidence in his supporting cast. I think the real test will be when he gets to play with someone who can actually set a damn pick. One of his strengths in college was running the pnr, but we didn't get to see that much in SL, because everyone except JHam was setting **** slipscreens. If he can get a good pick setter, I'd love to see what kind of havok he can create once he turns the corner. He is both quick and fast for the NBA level. That is a skill you can't teach. He just needs to think pass-first this season instead of thinking he's still in the Horizon League. PEACE.

[Time4War]

Shane is not starting!! There is a difference between 82 and 16 games. Ira and Ethan said they are hearing that Lewis will get the starting PF position. It is between haslem and lewis.

[Zasterror]

Yeah Cole was heavily scrutinized by Hollinger, some were warranted, some were not. I was also slightly disappointed in Cole's regression in the 2nd half of the season. But his mini-reemergence during the Playoffs gave me hope that he would still be a solid backup for Mario Chalmers.

[DieHardBallFan]

ILL post above.. ima read that in a minute. Looks like a good read.

For the record I DO NOT wan't shane to start. If you feel Allen is a liability, shane at at 4 is much worse.

Like I said before. After 3-4 minutes into the first he will be giving up unnecessary plays . He just isn't able to handle the load. Allen is in great shape, and can rely on help defense and force most players to their left.

[SmushedPennies]

Guys, this is going to be our starting 5 sans injuries this season:

Rio
Wade
LBJ
Bosh
Joel

Seems familiar? Joel is going to start in the regular season. And I like it. No reason to make Bosh defend Cs all season long. Joel gives us great P&R and rotation defense, as well as energy. I think we need to use him all season for sure.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. You guys are driving me crazy. That stuff is over. Joel wasn't even starting by the end of last regular season, why would he start now after his minutes dwindled to nearly nothing? Bosh gives us great team D, too. Joel is better off the bench, if he can even get off of it next season.

Please stop this stuff guys. Bosh is our starting C.

[Slot Machine]

Yeah Cole was heavily scrutinized by Hollinger, some were warranted, some were not. I was also slightly disappointed in Cole's regression in the 2nd half of the season. But his mini-reemergence during the Playoffs gave me hope that he would still be a solid backup for Mario Chalmers.

He needs to be able to consistently shoot, simple as that.

[flashwade33]

Guys, this is going to be our starting 5 sans injuries this season:

Rio
Wade
LBJ
Bosh
Joel

Seems familiar? Joel is going to start in the regular season. And I like it. No reason to make Bosh defend Cs all season long. Joel gives us great P&R and rotation defense, as well as energy. I think we need to use him all season for sure.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. You guys are driving me crazy. That stuff is over. Joel wasn't even starting by the end of last regular season, why would he start now after his minutes dwindled to nearly nothing? Bosh gives us great team D, too. Joel is better off the bench, if he can even get off of it next season.

Please stop this stuff guys. Bosh is our starting C.

[DieHardBallFan]

Can there ever be a basketball discussion without some lame internet joke picture posted?

I would not be surprised if majority of the kids giving their opinion on basketball related topics on this site only started watching ball in the last 5 years and play video games all day everyday.

[dolphinatik]

I like Hollingers analysis and learned alot of interesting facts about our players and thier seasons. 5 foul shots for Miller is insane and LBJ's efficiency how can ppl say he is not clutch. Although I like Cole I cannot disagree with the assessment on him. Good news is he is a rookie and Heat get a full summer with him this time around.

as far as starters look for the usual suspects Rio Wade Lebron Bosh with only the fifth spot changing from game to game. I could see Battier there Joel or even Pittman if he really makes some corrections.

[SmushedPennies]

Definitely will be needing them until I stop seeing people insisting Joel will start at C, or anyone but Bosh for that matter, unless we somehow acquire someone not on a minimum deal.

Any chance you'd care to elaborate on why they're going back to Joel? As I said, even healthy, he was moved to the bench and essentially out of the rotation before the regular season even ended, before we even discovered positionless-ball. Why would they go back to something that was utilized before they got better and won a championship? Let's not forget how underwhelming we were heading into the playoffs.

We've heard numerous times since then, whether from Pat, Spo, or Chad (or was it Chet?) Kammerer, that they're going away from starting guys that the defenses can ignore and instead having 5 "live" (as in can score one way or another) players out there together to start games. We tore it up doing it in the Finals, and there's no reason to believe we can't get better at it by honing it against a variety of defenses and personnel throughout the regular season. I love Joel, and hope he can hold onto a role next season if with the guys logically in front of him (as well as Jorts and Pitt) are hopefully playing well, but his starting days are over, and he'll even tell you he'd prefer it that way.

If this helps you, here's an excerpt from an article after Joel was moved to the bench for Turiaf:

"We have a handful of players that would really prefer to come off the bench," Spoelstra said. "That's the role they like. To get to my second layer of the rotation, there were some things I wanted to move. Ultimately, we always envisioned Joel to be a game-changer off the bench."

Anthony had no problems with returning to the bench. He was a reserve last season before becoming a starter midway through the season. Even then, Anthony said he felt more comfortable playing with the second unit.

"It's not that I was uncomfortable," Anthony said. "It just wasn't what I was used to. I was coming off the bench and then you have to change things up. You just make the adjustment … I think it's a good role for me. I like coming off the bench with that second unit."

http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-04-04/sports/fl-miami-heat-news-0405-20120404_1_joel-anthony-bench-ronny-turiaf

Are you ready to come over to the Dark Side, yet?

Joel can get his minutes, at least if he doesn't get eclipsed by Harrellson. Bosh doesn't have to play all of his minutes at C. Against certain matchups we can pull whomever is at PF and insert Joel, Jorts, or Pitt to move Bosh to PF and give him a rest from the brutal abuse some of you are in fear of him enduring.