Can we please stop talking about prospects ?

[truthiness]

It drives me mad when I see fans whining for a "prospect" (instead of Juwon, for example), or asking for more minutes for a proven scrub (like Pittman).

Let's get a few things clear:

1. This team's goal is to WIN NOW. That means that most of the minutes go to players that can help it WIN NOW. That means there's no time to develop a young player (even if somehow Heat got somebody who really has potential, which they're highly unlikely to do - see below). Some guy at the end of the bench will average something like 2-3 min a game, when a prospect would need more like 30 mpg to really develop.

Teams that can afford giving lots of minutes to young players (to see who pans out and who doesn't) are called lottery teams.

2. Fans overrate scrubs and picks like crazy. Tone it down. I was happy when Pittman was waived because that'd put a stop to fans hoping against all evidence to the contrary that he'll become a contributor to the team and the big to fill the void in the middle. I don't have anything against Pittman himself, he seems to try, but he just wasn't any good. I hope he finds a team where he can get some minutes.

3. The Heat's chances of landing a player with real upside are way under 1%. Especially if you're talking 2nd round picks, you need to do the math. I think that about 1% of 2nd round picks end up as useful role players, and probably 10% of that or less become stars. I only got Manu and Arenas in mind right now, can't think of another.

4. There are chemistry issues to consider. Sometimes it's better to bring in a veteran who already knows how to play and what his role is than a high lottery pick (think Cousins).

So please, if you want prospects, watch a lottery team. If you watch the Heat, hope for good cheap veterans, health for the team and a lucky bounce here and there.

[puppa bear]

It's a forum/discussion board. People will discuss things in this somewhat open forum.

I think a lot of people were hoping for another buyout "gem" like we've got the past 2 years, but it didn't happen & they weren't happy with the safe option.

That doesn't mean that we shouldn't be interested in who might be available to pick in the 2nd round (or the Philly pick next year). We got Chalmers there. There have been loads of players drafted to the right situation for them in the late 1st or early 2nd. And just as many (probably more) picked by teams that they don't fit. The whole process is a crap shoot, & this club has shown nailing free agency (2010) can trump it all. But you can't say having Lawson or Bledsoe (both drafted with picks we owned) wouldn't help.

Also, you do realise in 2008 alone Pekovic, Chalmers, Jordan, Asik, Mbah a Moute & Dragic were taken in the 2nd round - that's 6 rotation players, 4 starters. 2009 had Blair, Jerebko, Thornton, Budinger, Green, de Colo & Mills - 7 rotation players. We're up to 13/60 = 21.7%. Even if you take off Mills, Jerebko & de Colo we're still at 16.7% - not good odds, but better than 1%! Even in the lean years there's still a couple to be found - if they land on the right team.

[shanedude]

Dude get over yourself.

[RexBoyWonder]

Players from a randon not too far ago second round draft (2009):

Dante Cunningham
Sam Young
DeJuan Blair
Jonas Jerebko
Jodie Meeks
Patrick Beverley
Marcus Thornton
Chase Budinger
Danny Green
A.J. Price
Nando De Colo
Patrick Mills

Some very nice players, some decent role players, ALL are extremely cheap (second rounders) young, might continue to improve. Also remember the only other way we can add players is for the Vetren minimum (only 1 MiniLE)

So...yea. You should probably stop embarrassing yourself.

[SlowPaced]

No we cannot stop. A player who we drafted last year is our backup PG at the moment.

[truthiness]

Also, you do realise in 2008 alone Pekovic, Chalmers, Jordan, Asik, Mbah a Moute & Dragic were taken in the 2nd round - that's 6 rotation players, 4 starters. 2009 had Blair, Jerebko, Thornton, Budinger, Green, de Colo & Mills - 7 rotation players. We're up to 13/60 = 21.7%. Even if you take off Mills, Jerebko & de Colo we're still at 16.7% - not good odds, but better than 1%! Even in the lean years there's still a couple to be found - if they land on the right team.

Remember that I'm talking about role players for a championship team. Not for a lottery team. It's a bit of a difference between the 2. Guys that get 20 mpg for Sacramento wouldn't get off the bench in Miami or San Antonio.

And for me role players are guys who get into the playoff rotation - remember that usually playoff rotations are 8-9 deep.

I am leaving non-american players out, because apparently the scouting still seems to be lacking and there's always a bit of uncertainty about how their game will translate to the NBA level. For example Sarunas Jasikevicius was Euroleague MVP twice yet he just wasn't very good in the NBA. Splitter was MVP in Spain IIR, and he's a role player and starting getting consistent minutes only in his 3rd year. I actually wanted to say in my initial post that it would be better to use picks on players playing in Europe, which are low risk, high reward.

Now for the rest:

Blair can't get off the bench for SA.

Thornton is somewhat like Chalmers: he got minutes because his team wasn't very good. Remember how Heat fans were hating on Chalmers on few years ago. Hell, they're still doing it now. Criticizing Chalmers and asking for more minutes for Pittman. Chalmers is a much better player now for having received those minutes.

Mills and De Colo get about 10 mpg each, which is less than Rashard Lewis and Mike Miller are getting (when they play). And they most certainly won't see the floor during the playoffs unless there's a blowout.

Budinger god some playing time with Houston cause they sucked, otherwise I don't think he's very good.

I'd still say that my initial point stays: there aren't enough available minutes on the Heat for prospects, so clamoring for them makes no sense. And I'd say Pat Riley agrees with me, so there's that.

Players from a randon not too far ago second round draft (2009):

Dante Cunningham
Sam Young
DeJuan Blair
Jonas Jerebko
Jodie Meeks
Patrick Beverley
Marcus Thornton
Chase Budinger
Danny Green
A.J. Price
Nando De Colo
Patrick Mills

Some very nice players, some decent role players, ALL are extremely cheap (second rounders) young, might continue to improve. Also remember the only other way we can add players is for the Vetren minimum (only 1 MiniLE)

So...yea. You should probably stop embarrassing yourself.

See above + all those you mentioned are scrubs save for Danny Green.
Again, my point stays.

No we cannot stop. A player who we drafted last year is our backup PG at the moment.

Cole was 1st round.
And Haberstroh recently said he's the worst rotation player on the Heat (though I don't agree and I like Cole).

But whatever floats your boat. I mean, if you want to keep doing irrational things, don't let me stop you.

[puppa bear]

But whatever floats your boat. I mean, if you want to keep doing irrational things, don't let me stop you.

Exactly. No one's ever stopped you, they've just engaged in conversation. If you want to engage do it, otherwise it's just pointless whinging.

Also even if you ignore all the players from 2009 (even though Green is contributing to a contender & Blair was as recent as last season), then you still have way more than 1% success rate. Ignoring Euros is just stupidity & erroneous statistical manipulation.

That would be like me saying: "100% of responding posters don't agree with your opinion 100%, therefore you are completely wrong."

You entitled to your opinion, express it & be done with it. Don't try to convert everyone. I've simply tried to point out a flaw in your argument, which you obviously don't see. So, I'm done expressing mine.

[puppa bear]

I'd still say that my initial point stays: there aren't enough available minutes on the Heat for prospects, so clamoring for them makes no sense. And I'd say Pat Riley agrees with me, so there's that.

I did not argue this point at all. I actually agree that there's no minutes for a development player this year. There might not be the minutes, but that doesn't mean we can't start developing a player for next year (ala Varnado).

I simply argued that 2nd rounders are more successful than you think.

[Slot Machine]

This topic is pretty funny given that we have a prospect on the team already(Varnado).

[narmerguy]

I guess I'm just confused why you felt the need to make a post for this?

Is it ironic that people are now posting about prospects in your thread?

[orangeparka]

Ridiculous. Look at the successful teams over the years an see how crucial finding steals and draft gems were in lengthening their windows.

[puppa bear]

Ridiculous. Look at the successful teams over the years an see how crucial finding steals and draft gems were in lengthening their windows.

Exactly. Like them or not, Spurs have to be applauded for their scouting & drafting.

[SlowPaced]

Cole was 1st round.

He was a late first round pick and we actually didn't draft him, he joined us via trade. (originally picked by Bulls). So it's you who is being irrational here.

[DivineFury]

He has a point, to an extent. Pittman was going to be the next Dwight. Varnado? Gladness? I'm sure all came up as future role players. Someone posted about the Sanchez guy we got in the Dexter trade back as the next Dirk in the Heat.com forums. It was pretty ridiculous how excited people got over a piece of a trade that was literally complete crap - the guy is never touching an NBA court.

Doesn't mean people should not discuss these players or their potential. But it can be annoying and stupid at times. Also Riley loves veterans, it would take a lot for him to invest heavily in a young player. I'm still shocked Cole got playing time last year. I think the consensus was we couldn't have a slow/veteran PG after the Bibby blunder. Love it or hate it, we aren't built nor think like the Spurs. At least not for the foreseeable future.

[truthiness]

Exactly. No one's ever stopped you, they've just engaged in conversation.

You entitled to your opinion, express it & be done with it. Don't try to convert everyone. I've simply tried to point out a flaw in your argument, which you obviously don't see. So, I'm done expressing mine.

I probably made a mistake with the title. I was asking for a bit of reason and logic. I am not against people talking, just be reasonable.

Learn the league's history, learn about what Pat Riley prefers (veterans), check the available playing time (next to zero minutes per game), get informed and think it over before going full (Please Use More Appropriate Word) and claiming Pittman would solve the Heat's problem @ C (and we have all seen this post way too often).

Ridiculous. Look at the successful teams over the years an see how crucial finding steals and draft gems were in lengthening their windows.

Let's talk dynasties. Teams that repeated. Who did the Bulls draft in the 2nd round after becoming champions that helped them defend a title ? Who did the Lakers draft as champions that contributed to their 3peat ?

Most minutes on the Bulls in 97 and 98 went to players 28 and over. We find just one player under 27 in the 10 player rotation, and he's 9th (Caffey). Most minutes on the Lakers went to veterans. Kobe was young, but around him you had Shaq, Rick Fox, Robert Horry, Fisher. Mitch Richmond (36) and Lindsey Hunter (31) played more than their own draft pick.

Yeah, the Spurs are the exception (which implies it's very hard to do what they did), during their last title run in 2007, other than a 24 year old Parker, everybody in their main rotation was 29 or over. Like Bowen (35), Finley (33), Brent Barry (35) and Horry (36).

The Spurs did well recently again with finding players like Leonard or Gary Neal, but they haven't won anything (yet) with those players. And until they do, your point is false. None of these teams has extended their run on the backs of picks. They did it mostly by signing veterans on the cheap during the summer.

I guess I'm just confused why you felt the need to make a post for this?

Is it ironic that people are now posting about prospects in your thread?

Actually, no. It just shows a certain amount of ignorance and lack of knowledge about the league's history.
I'll bet you Juwan Howard will play more minutes than Varnado.

And I am pretty sure most of the people arguing against me are the same that were waiting for Pittman to become a starter at C.

He has a point, to an extent. Pittman was going to be the next Dwight. Varnado? Gladness? I'm sure all came up as future role players. Someone posted about the Sanchez guy we got in the Dexter trade back as the next Dirk in the Heat.com forums. It was pretty ridiculous how excited people got over a piece of a trade that was literally complete crap - the guy is never touching an NBA court.

Doesn't mean people should not discuss these players or their potential. But it can be annoying and stupid at times. Also Riley loves veterans, it would take a lot for him to invest heavily in a young player. I'm still shocked Cole got playing time last year. I think the consensus was we couldn't have a slow/veteran PG after the Bibby blunder. Love it or hate it, we aren't built nor think like the Spurs. At least not for the foreseeable future.

^ This.
Especially the part about it becoming stupid and annoying.

[puppa bear]

I actually thought Pittman was a crap pick. I thought then (& still do now) that Whiteside would have been a better fit - he had Zo-lite potential if he reach his ceiling. Great combo of size, strength & athleticism. If he could have learnt the defensive scheme while being under Zo's wing it could have been great.

[This IsMy House]

I actually thought Pittman was a crap pick. I thought then (& still do now) that Whiteside would have been a better fit - he had Zo-lite potential if he reach his ceiling. Great combo of size, strength & athleticism. If he could have learnt the defensive scheme while being under Zo's wing it could have been great.

I agree with you I never liked Pittman I always thought he was a bum, but looking back at that draft there was no one behind Pittman that was really worth anything. You had Lance Stephenson and Landry Fields but who the Heat didnt really need with LeBron/Wade. Both Pittman and Whitesides numbers are awful, I just hope Riley can get a steal this year.

[truthiness]

The point isn't that there were better players after Pittman.

The point is to not get ridiculous expectations from such players. They are there so there aren't empty seats on the bench.

[RexBoyWonder]

Danny Green, Chandler Parsons and DeAndre Jordan say hi.

[nunemouse]

Danny Green, Chandler Parsons and DeAndre Jordan say hi.

You're bringing up specific examples when OP was making a general point.

http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Generally, chances of that happening are very low. Notice the sharp drop in games played and rating in the bottom 30 picks.