Cap space and the future ahead

[MKG35]

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/r ... /Miami.htm


I see people posting in the general thread that Miami will be a force as long as Lebron will be on the squad. I can relate to that but what happens if the big 3 all pick up their player options? Or at least 2 players do so?

That means in 2014-15 Miami has locked up Bosh*-Wade-Lebron for 60 million. Haslem and Anthony probably will pick up theirs too or re-negotiate a deal. I can see Miller retiring. That gives you 75 million in used cap with 5 players on board. How are you able to add players to your roster? I don't if they have any picks but you need to fill up a roster. Mini mle and 2 vet minimums. You barely make 10.



To me, what seems most likely is that.
1. Wade will pick up his player option for both seasons. It's his last big pay check. He won't get 42 million/2 seasons anywhere right now.

2. Lebron will opt-out and look for a new max deal be it with the Heat or somewhere else.




So how do you guys see the future? It just seems to me that they are locked up money-wise. Or everyone has to opt out and sign for less again which may be viable.



Edit: Bosh-Wade-LBJ*

[Heat_Fan_87]

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/Miami.htm


I see people posting in the general thread that Miami will be a force as long as Lebron will be on the squad. I can relate to that but what happens if the big 3 all pick up their player options? Or at least 2 players do so?

That means in 2014-15 Miami has locked up LBB-Wade-Lebron for 60 million. Haslem and Anthony probably will pick up theirs too or re-negotiate a deal. I can see Miller retiring. That gives you 75 million in used cap with 5 players on board. How are you able to add players to your roster? I don't if they have any picks but you need to fill up a roster. Mini mle and 2 vet minimums. You barely make 10.



To me, what seems most likely is that.
1. Wade will pick up his player option for both seasons. It's his last big pay check. He won't get 42 million/2 seasons anywhere right now.

2. Lebron will opt-out and look for a new max deal be it with the Heat or somewhere else.
\

So how do you guys see the future? It just seems to me that they are locked up money-wise. Or everyone has to opt out and sign for less again which may be viable.

I can see all the guys getting new deals. Wade would get something like 4/40, bosh would get something like 4/70 and lebron will get whatever he wants.

[This IsMy House]

So let me get this straight, LeBron came to Miami for less money to join Wade/Bosh to win multiple champions. And now after AT LEAST 3 trips in a row to the Finals and a possibility of a 4th before this happens you think hell want to opt out and sign for the MAX to prevent better players from being able to sign? Ok I guess if you dont think about it, it makes perfect sense.

[aquaadverse]

As it stands right now, if they amnesty Miller at some point and the Big 3 opt out that leaves Cole, Anthony, Haslem and the remains of Jarvis Varnado on the books for 2014-2015. For roughly $12M. Obviously, that is going to change. But the idea that the Heat are going to be locked into a rigid death spiral of handcuffed contract hell is being overblown by a lot of people.

Scenario one:

Bosh, Wade and Bosh sign new contracts with LeBron getting more and Wade significantly less. Bosh signs a meh contract trading off a more significant role on another team for the exposure and endorsement income and a better chance at more rings. They fill the rest of the roster with cheap vets with proven records that fit the system.

Scenario two:

They let Bosh walk or trade him with his approval, Wade exercises his player options and they replace Bosh with 2 serviceable Bigs for less money and get the equivalent of Battier, Allen, Miller to fill the holes.

Scenario three:

They let Wade and Bosh walk, keep Lebron and put enough talent around him to remain in the hunt for a title. Least likely.

The rest of the NBA is just as susceptible to the pressure of Cap and Luxury Tax issues as Miami. The difference is you have a franchise where players are willing to sacrifice years and money they'll never get back because they know they won't be squandered. The world of the NBA where star players earned $3M a year and needed a boost to set themselves up for life is over.

In Riley I trust.

[Alex Trevelyan]

I heard Marc Stein talking about this on the radio recently and in his opinion there is absolutely no scenario where LeBron would leave the Heat and this was when the Heat were struggling to beat the Pacers and everyone thought that if they lost, heads would roll and guys would be dealt away. The fact is the infrastructure LeBron has cannot be emulated anywhere else and even in a scenario where Wade was just a shell of his former self and Bosh was ineffective, LeBron would trust Riley to rebuild the roster quickly. Win or lose in the Finals, we could see a re-tooling of the roster and that could include a major move. I just cannot see Riley, after the way we struggled with the Pacers, not being proactive in trying to negate the danger they present going forward and I don't think taking a flyer on a reclamation project like Oden or a low-cost vet like Dalembert counts, although I'm sure both will be considered, if not pursued.

[HIF]

I say we keep this for the off-season.

[WD]

I say we keep this for the off-season.

this

[DivineFury]

Wade will probably opt out and take a paycut that year for a longer, guaranteed contract. The rest is really all based on too many variables to predict. All I know is these guys are friends and they love winning together. Would take something pretty monumental for them to just turn their backs on each other and the Heat.

I believe the old line of "in Riley we trust" rings true here. As long as he is in charge, I will sleep pretty soundly at night regardless of media frenzy anytime we don't destroy a team.

[Slot Machine]

Wade will probably opt out and take a paycut that year for a longer, guaranteed contract. The rest is really all based on too many variables to predict. All I know is these guys are friends and they love winning together. Would take something pretty monumental for them to just turn their backs on each other and the Heat.

I believe the old line of "in Riley we trust" rings true here. As long as he is in charge, I will sleep pretty soundly at night regardless of media frenzy anytime we don't destroy a team.

This and this.

[MKG35]

But you guys agree with me that AS IS, if players pick up their options everything is stuck?


So a change HAS to happen. Be it, a trade or opt out and again sign cheaper deals.

[narmerguy]

I think it would be very hard for Miami to contend long term if all options are picked up. But let's see how these finals play out first, as that could be a huge factor.

[DivineFury]

But you guys agree with me that AS IS, if players pick up their options everything is stuck?


So a change HAS to happen. Be it, a trade or opt out and again sign cheaper deals.

As opposed to what? Our situation will be no different than the last 2 offseasons.

We can re-sign players and go over cap, at least as I understand it. So we will probably try to do that with key guys. The rest will be exceptions used to sign vets or draft pick/trades. Don't understand the doom and gloom of a scenario that's no different than the current one getting us to the Finals constantly.

[Vertical Limit]

It's something that Arison is definitely thinking about but honestly, he's probably going to use Lebron as a chip to try to get a bigger TV contract to make up for the money he has to pay in tax.

[NBA82]

Not worried. It will be easy for us to keep Chalmers, Cole, Wade, LeBron, and Bosh locked up. It's just a matter of Mickey's wallet. I think all 3 opt out in '14 and re-sign to similar contracts to the ones they're on now. Long-term, less than max money, and a lot of flexibility with ETOs and player options. Chalmers will re-sign in the $4-6 million annually region and Cole we've got locked in on his rookie deal for a while longer.

Filling in the blanks isn't real tricky when you've got that kind of starting point. We need a back-up 2/3, a center, and a back-up 4 or 5. We can use this year's MLE to fill in one of those blanks, and next year's first rounder for another.

Assuming Wade/Bosh/LeBron account for $60 million a year, which I think is reasonable, that puts us at about 73 with our PGs plus an MLE and a late first rounder. Throw in vet minimums and we're in the low 80s, which is the cost of competing.

The only tricky parts of this equation are Joel/Udonis/Miller. That's an extra $11 million over vet minimum replacements if they all pick up their options -- but they're also expiring deals, which gives us flexibility to deal them if we need to add contributors. I'm not sure how we work that. The obvious solution would be to amnesty Miller, which keeps us in the 80s. But I could definitely see Riley getting creative. Maybe Miller agrees not to pick up his option if we don't amnesty him. Maybe we deal Joel with a pick. Maybe Haslem retires in '14. No idea how that will play out.

But yeah, I think we're going to be fine. We've got 2 decent PG options and The Big 3. Filling in the rest is easy.

[aquaadverse]

I say we keep this for the off-season.

this

Why ?

[dolphinatik]

lock this please.

[OoAnd1]

Not worried. It will be easy for us to keep Chalmers, Cole, Wade, LeBron, and Bosh locked up. It's just a matter of Mickey's wallet. I think all 3 opt out in '14 and re-sign to similar contracts to the ones they're on now. Long-term, less than max money, and a lot of flexibility with ETOs and player options. Chalmers will re-sign in the $4-6 million annually region and Cole we've got locked in on his rookie deal for a while longer.

Filling in the blanks isn't real tricky when you've got that kind of starting point. We need a back-up 2/3, a center, and a back-up 4 or 5. We can use this year's MLE to fill in one of those blanks, and next year's first rounder for another.

Assuming Wade/Bosh/LeBron account for $60 million a year, which I think is reasonable, that puts us at about 73 with our PGs plus an MLE and a late first rounder. Throw in vet minimums and we're in the low 80s, which is the cost of competing.

The only tricky parts of this equation are Joel/Udonis/Miller. That's an extra $11 million over vet minimum replacements if they all pick up their options -- but they're also expiring deals, which gives us flexibility to deal them if we need to add contributors. I'm not sure how we work that. The obvious solution would be to amnesty Miller, which keeps us in the 80s. But I could definitely see Riley getting creative. Maybe Miller agrees not to pick up his option if we don't amnesty him. Maybe we deal Joel with a pick. Maybe Haslem retires in '14. No idea how that will play out.

But yeah, I think we're going to be fine. We've got 2 decent PG options and The Big 3. Filling in the rest is easy.

I wish I could make everyone read this when I hear about the "scary future for the big 3".

[Heat3]

I don't understand why so many people just assume that the Big 3 will only resign for max contracts. They didn't do it last time, why would they do it now? They made that sacrifice because they wanted to win multiple championships. I really don't think they'll make a 180 on that decision after just a 1-3 rings. It's especially frustrating hearing it from the national media types when it doesn't make any sense or fit with what they've already done. If these guys wanted max money they'd have taken it the first time around and be in the same position as Melo, Kobe, Dirk, Dwight, KD, etc.

I find it equally strange when they suggest Lebron leaving in 2014 to another team. He came to Miami to compete and all of a sudden he's going to go somewhere else to restart? Only way I can see this team breaking up is due to some severe injury that closes our window of competition.

[MKG35]

Well Wade has been on and off the past 2 years, that could play a big role.

I don't see him being competitive or a real force that Lebron needs to win more titles.

[fast-break]

The thing with this team is… The center piece doesn't have a “defensive stopper” (Game 7 LeBron was put on George to take pressure off of Wade) No Big to really get out there and grab rebounds (18 boards Game 1 Finals, rest of the team no more than 5), No major offensive threats to take a few defenders off of him (Teams don’t really game plan for his co-stars anymore). The dynamic is certainly changing.... Three straight Finals appearances is incredible…but how they are getting there is becoming alarming these past two years.

You just have to trust management to make smart business decisions in Free Agency.