Building the Heat roster for 2014-2015 and beyond
Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 5:56 pm
As you know the additions of Greg Oden and Michael Beasley have lit up our imaginations about the possibilities for the future - If they pan out, could we even keep them after this year ? and could we bring a strong enough supporting cast under the this new CBA?
Obviously it's impossible to predict the furture of a roster with so many unknown variables - injuries, off court issues, basketball needs - so everything said in this thread should be taken with a grain of salt.
With that said, it's intersting to try and see what are some of the more realistic directions we could go as team in the next few years.
Ill try to break down just 1 scenario, which i admit is an optimistic one but i still try to keep it realistic. (No, we won't add Carmelo).
So let's say Both Oden and Beasley have a reasonably good season and help us in the playoffs. could we even keep them for next year? Let's break it down :
Projected Salary cap for the 2014-2015 season = 62.5
Projected luxury tax threshold for the 2014-2015 season = 75
(figures may be adjusted but let's assume they'll remain similar)
1. First key move will be to resign the big 3 to new longer contracts. I wont' go into detail about that, but i think it's fair to say we could sign them all at a discount price (again) for several reasons : Age and loyalty (Wade) off the court earnings and legacy (Lebron) or just appreciation for what we have going here (Bosh). As long as we offer fair contracts and don't expect them to take really huge paycuts, i believe it's a very realistic option. So :
Lebron + Wade + Bosh combined for 45-48 Mil$ for 2014-2015, with yearly raises each year after that for 5 years. The differnce between them making 45Mil and making 48Mil could impact the our ability to keep Mario Chalmers.
So let's assume they love Rio and agree to 45Mil combined. (15 per year each, or Lebron makes a little more then Wade and Bosh in the middle, doesn't matter).
2. Next biggest contract on the books is Haslem's - he has an option for 4.6 Mil for 2014-2015. He's our boy and might even stay around after his platying days are over like Juwan Howard so i can see us offering him a 2 year deal instead, for 3 Mil per year. It makes sense for both sides - we gain some needed cap space for 2014-2105 and he gets to hang around for an extra year without losing money (since he'll be a minimum veteran player in 2015-2016 anyway).
3. Next biggest contract on the books for 2014-2015 is Joel's. He has an option for 3.8 Mil. This contract is the one we have to get rid of, in anyway possible. Luckily it's the last year on his contract so it's a very movable contract, even if we have to sweeten it with an attached future draft pick.
4. We have an option to retain Norris cole for 2 Mil$, which we'll pick up.
5. Birdman has an option for 1.4 Mil, which he'll pick up.
6. We offer Mario Chalmers a 4 year 4Mil per year contract (16 Mil total), which he accepts. I believe that's a fair deal, no other team in the league will offer much more for a backup PG, and no other team will make him their starting PG for the future at this stage.
7. We offer Oden a raise - 4 Mil$ for 2014-2015. This might seem low but keep in mind he'd hardly play enough minutes this year to be offered huge contracts from other teams. And he did chose to join us this year inspite getting bigger offers elsewhere. We might need to add a higher player option for 2015-2016 to make him accept, but for his limited role and considering the fact that in this scenario we basically brought his carre back to life - i think he'll accept and stay. This will also give us his bird right for 2015-2016, which will allow us to keep him regardless of Salary cap space limitations.
8. We give Beasley a small raise to 1.3 Mil. It's important to remember that He'll still be getting paid by PHX next year, Same thing as the Birdman situation. Beas would stay with his home team on a discount for 1 year (2014-2015) partly beacuse the PHX money will compensate him. Also you can't ignore the emotional aspect with him. He's finally feeling at home, and we're the team that gave him his career back. Then like with Oden, in 2015-2016 we'll have his bird rights and could offer his a healthy raise, and we will. I think He'll appricate what this team did for him and he already saw the grass might not be as green on bad teams. Also other teams will be wary about making the same mistake that PHX did, some players need a strong organization and team mates to flourish. Beas is one of them it seems. He knows it by now, and so does the rest of the NBA.
9. We sign our late first rounder draft (2014) pick for 0.7 Mil.
10. We sign our own 2013 draft pick James Ennis for the minimum of 0.5 Mil.
11. We sign our own 2012 draft pick Justin Hamilton for a minimum of 0.5 Mil.
Let's recap :
Lebron + Wade + Bosh = 45
Haslem = 3
Cole = 2
Birdman = 1.4
Rio = 4
Oden = 4
Beasley = 1.3 (plus 2.3 Mil from PHX)
2014 draft pick - 0.7
Ennis - 0.5
J.Hamilton - 0.5
This gives us 12 players under contract, which means we have 0 cap holds.
Combined salaries for these 12 players = 62.4 Mil. Just below the salary cap.
Since we're still far enough below the luxury tax threshold, We could also use the FULL MLE to add another quality player. some of the best free agents options are :
Thabo Sefolosha
Brandon Rush
Emeka Okafor
Jordan Hill
Ed Davis
Personally i like Jordan Hill, but let's say we choose Okafor because he's more likely to accept our offer and he's a more experienced Center.
So we add Okafor for the Full MLE (5.3 Mil per year, up to 4 years).
Now the only additions we're allowed to make are veteran minimum contracts. Let's say we keep Roger Mason JR for the Min of 1.4, and also get Battier for one last run at the title, another 1.4 Mil deal.
This give us a rotation of :
Mario/Cole/Draft pick
Wade/Draft pick/Mason
Lebron/Ennis/Battier
Bosh/Beasley/Haslem
Okafor/Oden/Birdman/Hamilton
15 players roster, we kept everyone, for a total salary of 70.4 Mil$. We also have the bird rights of every player on the roster, so we won't be limited by the cap space going forward and could offer Oden and Beasley bigger longer contracts before the 2015-2016 season. The luxury tax also won't be as harsh because we escaped the repeat offender tax rate by going under the luxury tax threshold for the 2014-2015 season.
Obviously there's no guarantees everything works out this perfectly, Oden or Beasley might insist on a few extra Milions, or the big 3 might insist on getting at least 16 Mil each on the first year of their new contracts, who knows. In that case we might have to let Mario Chalmers go and replace him with a Vetran minimum type player and make Cole our starting PG. The point is - we have the freedom to tweak things as we choose because there are so few guaranteed contract on our books.
I'd also like to hear other scenarios from anyone who's got one, whether it's by creating a better roster or a more realistic one if you find this one to be too optimstic.
Damn this turned out a long ass post...sorry.
Obviously it's impossible to predict the furture of a roster with so many unknown variables - injuries, off court issues, basketball needs - so everything said in this thread should be taken with a grain of salt.
With that said, it's intersting to try and see what are some of the more realistic directions we could go as team in the next few years.
Ill try to break down just 1 scenario, which i admit is an optimistic one but i still try to keep it realistic. (No, we won't add Carmelo).
So let's say Both Oden and Beasley have a reasonably good season and help us in the playoffs. could we even keep them for next year? Let's break it down :
Projected Salary cap for the 2014-2015 season = 62.5
Projected luxury tax threshold for the 2014-2015 season = 75
(figures may be adjusted but let's assume they'll remain similar)
1. First key move will be to resign the big 3 to new longer contracts. I wont' go into detail about that, but i think it's fair to say we could sign them all at a discount price (again) for several reasons : Age and loyalty (Wade) off the court earnings and legacy (Lebron) or just appreciation for what we have going here (Bosh). As long as we offer fair contracts and don't expect them to take really huge paycuts, i believe it's a very realistic option. So :
Lebron + Wade + Bosh combined for 45-48 Mil$ for 2014-2015, with yearly raises each year after that for 5 years. The differnce between them making 45Mil and making 48Mil could impact the our ability to keep Mario Chalmers.
So let's assume they love Rio and agree to 45Mil combined. (15 per year each, or Lebron makes a little more then Wade and Bosh in the middle, doesn't matter).
2. Next biggest contract on the books is Haslem's - he has an option for 4.6 Mil for 2014-2015. He's our boy and might even stay around after his platying days are over like Juwan Howard so i can see us offering him a 2 year deal instead, for 3 Mil per year. It makes sense for both sides - we gain some needed cap space for 2014-2105 and he gets to hang around for an extra year without losing money (since he'll be a minimum veteran player in 2015-2016 anyway).
3. Next biggest contract on the books for 2014-2015 is Joel's. He has an option for 3.8 Mil. This contract is the one we have to get rid of, in anyway possible. Luckily it's the last year on his contract so it's a very movable contract, even if we have to sweeten it with an attached future draft pick.
4. We have an option to retain Norris cole for 2 Mil$, which we'll pick up.
5. Birdman has an option for 1.4 Mil, which he'll pick up.
6. We offer Mario Chalmers a 4 year 4Mil per year contract (16 Mil total), which he accepts. I believe that's a fair deal, no other team in the league will offer much more for a backup PG, and no other team will make him their starting PG for the future at this stage.
7. We offer Oden a raise - 4 Mil$ for 2014-2015. This might seem low but keep in mind he'd hardly play enough minutes this year to be offered huge contracts from other teams. And he did chose to join us this year inspite getting bigger offers elsewhere. We might need to add a higher player option for 2015-2016 to make him accept, but for his limited role and considering the fact that in this scenario we basically brought his carre back to life - i think he'll accept and stay. This will also give us his bird right for 2015-2016, which will allow us to keep him regardless of Salary cap space limitations.
8. We give Beasley a small raise to 1.3 Mil. It's important to remember that He'll still be getting paid by PHX next year, Same thing as the Birdman situation. Beas would stay with his home team on a discount for 1 year (2014-2015) partly beacuse the PHX money will compensate him. Also you can't ignore the emotional aspect with him. He's finally feeling at home, and we're the team that gave him his career back. Then like with Oden, in 2015-2016 we'll have his bird rights and could offer his a healthy raise, and we will. I think He'll appricate what this team did for him and he already saw the grass might not be as green on bad teams. Also other teams will be wary about making the same mistake that PHX did, some players need a strong organization and team mates to flourish. Beas is one of them it seems. He knows it by now, and so does the rest of the NBA.
9. We sign our late first rounder draft (2014) pick for 0.7 Mil.
10. We sign our own 2013 draft pick James Ennis for the minimum of 0.5 Mil.
11. We sign our own 2012 draft pick Justin Hamilton for a minimum of 0.5 Mil.
Let's recap :
Lebron + Wade + Bosh = 45
Haslem = 3
Cole = 2
Birdman = 1.4
Rio = 4
Oden = 4
Beasley = 1.3 (plus 2.3 Mil from PHX)
2014 draft pick - 0.7
Ennis - 0.5
J.Hamilton - 0.5
This gives us 12 players under contract, which means we have 0 cap holds.
Combined salaries for these 12 players = 62.4 Mil. Just below the salary cap.
Since we're still far enough below the luxury tax threshold, We could also use the FULL MLE to add another quality player. some of the best free agents options are :
Thabo Sefolosha
Brandon Rush
Emeka Okafor
Jordan Hill
Ed Davis
Personally i like Jordan Hill, but let's say we choose Okafor because he's more likely to accept our offer and he's a more experienced Center.
So we add Okafor for the Full MLE (5.3 Mil per year, up to 4 years).
Now the only additions we're allowed to make are veteran minimum contracts. Let's say we keep Roger Mason JR for the Min of 1.4, and also get Battier for one last run at the title, another 1.4 Mil deal.
This give us a rotation of :
Mario/Cole/Draft pick
Wade/Draft pick/Mason
Lebron/Ennis/Battier
Bosh/Beasley/Haslem
Okafor/Oden/Birdman/Hamilton
15 players roster, we kept everyone, for a total salary of 70.4 Mil$. We also have the bird rights of every player on the roster, so we won't be limited by the cap space going forward and could offer Oden and Beasley bigger longer contracts before the 2015-2016 season. The luxury tax also won't be as harsh because we escaped the repeat offender tax rate by going under the luxury tax threshold for the 2014-2015 season.
Obviously there's no guarantees everything works out this perfectly, Oden or Beasley might insist on a few extra Milions, or the big 3 might insist on getting at least 16 Mil each on the first year of their new contracts, who knows. In that case we might have to let Mario Chalmers go and replace him with a Vetran minimum type player and make Cole our starting PG. The point is - we have the freedom to tweak things as we choose because there are so few guaranteed contract on our books.
I'd also like to hear other scenarios from anyone who's got one, whether it's by creating a better roster or a more realistic one if you find this one to be too optimstic.
Damn this turned out a long ass post...sorry.