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Do you think he would have had an All Star caliber career?

It's interesting to think what Greg Oden's career would have been like if he never suffered any injuries, Would he have been a Top 10 player? Would he have commanded a max contract by now?

Also if he does get healthy and play good i am curious about what type of contract the Heat might offer him.

Are you serious?

A healthy Oden would probably be the best Center in the NBA by now, a MVP candidate, easily a max player.

In his second season as 22YO his per36 stats were:

16.7 points
60.5% FG
77% FT
12.8 rebounds
3.4 blocks

That's easily the best Center in the league and Centers don't reach their peak until they're 26-7 YO. He would have been a bigger, more talented Dwight Howard. With much better free throws shooting.

If he can get back to 70% of what he was in his second season, he'd still be a top Center in the NBA today. I don't see him ever playing big minutes again, but even in limited minutes if he can get back to 70% of his old self...it's a HUGE addition for us. That's basically the best backup Center in the league. Im really hoping for 18 good minutes per game from him, that would be amazing.

If he never suffered any injuries, then Portland would've made the right choice drafting him over Durant. That should tell you everything.

SHAQ 3000. He was the biggest player in the league, save Yao. What's scary is that even at his size, SHAQ still dwarfed him. Behold.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ordRv7D1WY[/youtube]

RexBoyWonder wrote:Are you serious?

A healthy Oden would probably be the best Center in the NBA by now, a MVP candidate, easily a max player.

In his second season as 22YO his per36 stats were:

16.7 points
60.5% FG
77% FT
12.8 rebounds
3.4 blocks

That's easily the best Center in the league and Centers don't reach their peak until they're 26-7 YO. He would have been a bigger, more talented Dwight Howard. With much better free throws shooting.

If he can get back to 70% of what he was in his second season, he'd still be a top Center in the NBA today. I don't see him ever playing big minutes again, but even in limited minutes if he can get back to 70% of his old self...it's a HUGE addition for us. That's basically the best backup Center in the league. Im really hoping for 18 good minutes per game from him, that would be amazing.

Except per36 stats are deceiving.
There are a bunch of scrubs out there with impressive per36 stats.
Partially because when you only play 10-15 minutes, you can go all out on each and every second. When you have to save yourself for 40 min a night, it's slightly different. And by "slightly" I mean "A LOT".

AND, he averaged 6 PF per36. Which means he wouldn't really play 36 min with that foul rate, because coaches would pull him, to save him for the 4th. Sure, he could improve on that. In fact, in his 1st year, he averaged 6.5 PF per36. But with a foul rate like that, you're not playing enough minutes to be an MVP candidate.

Yeah, he was pretty athletic for his size, but you must have forgotten what a bad dude Dwight was. Dwight is smaller, but stronger, and he had mad hops. He could kiss the rim, and that Superman dunk ....

Just because he was immature, people seem to forget that Dwight anchored a top 3 - top 5 defense all by himself (with mediocre defenders as teammates), and led that team to the finals over a 66 wins media-favorite Cleveland Cavs, that had Lebron on it. And they beat the Cavs EASILY. The only Cavs win came on a last second 3 from Lebron.

Oden would have been good, one of the best C's in the league. Top 5 for sure, perhaps no 1.
He'd have gotten the max. But he would have gotten the max even if he wasn't that good, cause big men are more likely to be overpaid.

Oden played 24 minutes per game that season. And even that was AFTER his first microfracture knee surgery. As a 22 YO.

A totally healthy Oden would have destroyed Dwight.

He was foul-prone but he can give you the best minutes a Center can give you if he stays on the court.

Dude's ceiling was something like 23 ppg, 13 rpb, while being the best defensive center in the league. Yeah.

I don't love the Dwight comparison actually. They both clean the defensive glass, but they're a different type of defensive presence. On offense Dwight is more of a finisher, and a face-up guy, who uses his devastating athleticism and some smooth spin moves to get dunks. Oden is more of a classic post up, dislodge the defender, drop step, baby hook, etc., type of scorer. At the end of the game if you want a high % shot, you could dump it into him in the post, whereas that'd be a huge mistake with Dwight.

But yeah, he fouled a ton and struggled with conditioning because he was always rehabbing. And he was still pretty raw. Who knows if he ever would've hit that ceiling.

truthiness wrote:...AND, he averaged 6 PF per36. Which means he wouldn't really play 36 min with that foul rate, because coaches would pull him, to save him for the 4th. Sure, he could improve on that. In fact, in his 1st year, he averaged 6.5 PF per36. But with a foul rate like that, you're not playing enough minutes to be an MVP candidate....

It generally takes longer for young, traditional bigs to defensively adapt to the speed and athleticism of the NBA game. For instance... Hibbert averaged 7.7 fouls Per36 his rookie season and 5.0 fouls Per36 his second season. He's now down to 3.5 fouls Per36 in his 6th season.

Dwight never had those foul issues because he was a non-traditional big, with otherworldly athleticism, who's defense was predicated on weakside blocking/altering the shot of anyone that dared enter the paint and rebounding everything else that was left over.

If healthy, that earlier Oden would have ultimately displayed the same learning curve as other young, elite bigs and adjusted his fouling tendencies as he gained more insight from actual game experience. He was too gifted and committed a defender for that not to happen.

Not saying he would have sucked.
But fans tend to overrate ceilings/potential etc.
We're one step from comparing him to Bill Russell, when I think Mutombo would be a better comparison.

truthiness wrote:Not saying he would have sucked.
But fans tend to overrate ceilings/potential etc.
We're one step from comparing him to Bill Russell, when I think Mutombo would be a better comparison.

I think rating him as a Mutombo is a pretty high ceiling. Mutombo was a 4 time defensive player of the year.

Except Oden is a much better offensive player. He has a lot of feel around the basket, where Dikembe never did. He also was a more fluid athlete.

I don't think he would have been the defensive force that Deke was. That's a lot to ask. However, if you say he's 70% of the defender Deke was, as good a rebounder, more athletic, and a much better offensive player....that's a damn fine center there.

truthiness wrote:Not saying he would have sucked.
But fans tend to overrate ceilings/potential etc.
We're one step from comparing him to Bill Russell, when I think Mutombo would be a better comparison.

I don't get involved with the comparison game. What we know with certainty is a healthy Oden had an outstanding skill set/tools: size, length, athleticism, timing, footwork, soft hands, low post moves, could finish with both hands, and rebounded like a big man should.

Whether he would have realized his potential can always be debated. But his trajectory before the injuries leads me to believe he would have been something special; particularly on the defensive end of the floor.

truthiness wrote:Not saying he would have sucked.
But fans tend to overrate ceilings/potential etc.
We're one step from comparing him to Bill Russell, when I think Mutombo would be a better comparison.

Mutombo was his absolute floor, even below his floor if he stayed healthy.

People expected him to a Russell/Shaq type of player, that's why he got picked ahead of Durant. GMs knew Durant was going to be excellent, But Oden was going to be a franchise altering Center in a time those don't really exist anymore.

His main problem was how foul prone he was. But that's something he would have corrected over time(see Roy Hibbert). I have no doubt he would be the best center in the league by now if he hadn't gotten injured. He was a freak, and unlike Dwight, had the makings of a legit post game.

RexBoyWonder wrote:

truthiness wrote:Not saying he would have sucked.
But fans tend to overrate ceilings/potential etc.
We're one step from comparing him to Bill Russell, when I think Mutombo would be a better comparison.

Mutombo was his absolute floor, even below his floor if he stayed healthy.

People expected him to a Russell/Shaq type of player, that's why he got picked ahead of Durant. GMs knew Durant was going to be excellent, But Oden was going to be a franchise altering Center in a time those don't really exist anymore.

No, they didn't know how good Durant would turn out to be. They knew he'd be good, but not how good.

Same thing with Jordan and Bowie. Did they expect Bowie to be as good as Jabbar ? Nope. They just didn't know how good Jordan would turn out to be.

People expected him to a Russell/Shaq type of player

What does that even mean ?
They were completely different types of players.
Shaq was all power, scoring and lazy D, while Russell was smaller, more nimble and smart D with little offensive production.

And GM's expecting someone to be Shaq or Russell doesn't mean much if you ever heard about one guy called Michael Olowokandi.

truthiness wrote:

RexBoyWonder wrote:

truthiness wrote:Not saying he would have sucked.
But fans tend to overrate ceilings/potential etc.
We're one step from comparing him to Bill Russell, when I think Mutombo would be a better comparison.

Mutombo was his absolute floor, even below his floor if he stayed healthy.

People expected him to a Russell/Shaq type of player, that's why he got picked ahead of Durant. GMs knew Durant was going to be excellent, But Oden was going to be a franchise altering Center in a time those don't really exist anymore.

No, they didn't know how good Durant would turn out to be. They knew he'd be good, but not how good.

Same thing with Jordan and Bowie. Did they expect Bowie to be as good as Jabbar ? Nope. They just didn't know how good Jordan would turn out to be.

People expected him to a Russell/Shaq type of player

What does that even mean ?
They were completely different types of players.
Shaq was all power, scoring and lazy D, while Russell was smaller, more nimble and smart D with little offensive production.

And GM's expecting someone to be Shaq or Russell doesn't mean much if you ever heard about one guy called Michael Olowokandi.

It means he was on his way to be the most dominant Center of the decade, like those guys were (the same success not guaranteed, but being a major force for years was). that's why he was the consensus pick for #1 ahead of Durant.

Your statement that he was suppose to be a Mutombo version shows, like a few time before, that you're just clueless and tend to talk about things you know nothing about for some reason.

Oh, I see now what you meant. I was thinking more in terms of style of play.

As for the personal insult, no offense, but coming from you it doesn't mean much.
I suppose you're a kid (although I really dislike using "you're a kid" on the forums), which explains the thinking-you-know-everything attitude and brashness. But it's ok, you'll probably grow out of it. Hopefully.

He'd be doing better than what D. Cousins is doing now if he was healthy and man that would be scary on this team

truthiness wrote:Oh, I see now what you meant. I was thinking more in terms of style of play.

As for the personal insult, no offense, but coming from you it doesn't mean much.
I suppose you're a kid (although I really dislike using "you're a kid" on the forums), which explains the thinking-you-know-everything attitude and brashness. But it's ok, you'll probably grow out of it. Hopefully.

Not a kid but I apologize for unnecessarily being offensive and getting personal, appreciate the discussion.

Mars wrote:

truthiness wrote:Not saying he would have sucked.
But fans tend to overrate ceilings/potential etc.
We're one step from comparing him to Bill Russell, when I think Mutombo would be a better comparison.

I don't get involved with the comparison game. What we know with certainty is a healthy Oden had an outstanding skill set/tools: size, length, athleticism, timing, footwork, soft hands, low post moves, could finish with both hands, and rebounded like a big man should.

Whether he would have realized his potential can always be debated. But his trajectory before the injuries leads me to believe he would have been something special; particularly on the defensive end of the floor.

Better than Ewing

Possible peak of 27/15/3.0/3.0/1.6
Basically a polished taller andre drummond who shot ft's as good as lebron 77 %. Easily Better than durant and 1B to lebron. Lebron plus peak healthy oden ( projected ) is like a kobe shaq tandem that would lasted longer because they're egos wouldnt mash they wouldnt even need a third star.

Alas we missed out on the best center since shaq and a top 5 all time guy potentially. That portland team if they were all healthy should have won it all in 2011.


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