Big3 Contract prediction

[miula]

I think the following situation is going to happen in this summer.

Big 3:

Opt out - Wade re-sign for 4 yr 50~55M
Out out - Bosh re-sign fr 4 yr 65~70M
Out in - Lebron James for his remaining 2 year contract

Wade and Bosh both expressed they are willing to take pay-cut and stay in Maimi for lifetime. Leborn opt in for 2 more years to try a 5-peat.

What do u guys think?

[HeatNation88]

I believe all will opt out either this year or next year depending how our rebuilding goes because we need to add youth and build a better bench around our core

[Vertical Limit]

Wade and Bosh opts in, Lebron opts out and we re-sign him for 30 million per year is my prediction.

[RexBoyWonder]

I think they're all opt in or they all opt out, it makes sense to restructure together to maximize the cap space and add the best role player/s we can.

Either way I'm 99.9999% sure they all stay, I just wish there was a better free agent then Gortat out there, somebody worth taking a pay cut for. Not really feeling the Ariza hype either.

[DWadeno3]

Wade and Bosh opts in, Lebron opts out and we re-sign him for 30 million per year is my prediction.

They've earned it, that's for sure.

[thinktellectual]

I think they're all opt in or they all opt out, it makes sense to restructure together to maximize the cap space and add the best role player/s we can.

Either way I'm 99.9999% sure they all stay, I just wish there was a better free agent then Gortat out there, somebody worth taking a pay cut for. Not really feeling the Ariza hype either.

I don't think there'll be money left for free agents, especially as much money as Gortat will get.
I think he'll get around 10 mil/season.

I think Miami will have to do with the MLE and the vet's min.

[greg4012]

I think they're all opt in or they all opt out, it makes sense to restructure together to maximize the cap space and add the best role player/s we can.

Either way I'm 99.9999% sure they all stay, I just wish there was a better free agent then Gortat out there, somebody worth taking a pay cut for. Not really feeling the Ariza hype either.

They're not gonna take a big enough paycut to take anyone in the bracket of talent you're hoping for. Unless they all take substantial paycuts. If it's something like LeBron resigning around $20M and Bosh and LeBron both resigning for anywhere around $30M between the two, then there will be about $5M in capspace plus the use of exceptions (vet min, MLE, rookie). But, the exceptions can't be used until the capspace is already taken up.

So, if that's how it plays out we won't be able to afford the names your not excited about -- Gortat or Ariza.

People need to temper their expectations for this offseason. Whatever capspace Riley magically makes appear will probably be enough for an undervalued player, a young developmental piece, and a discounted vet at the end of their career.

[LEIF]

All 3 opt out and the Big 3 sits down with Riley and Melo and they work out how to fit all 4 under the cap. This team knows Wade cant play 82 games ever again, Lebron needs help and Melo has gone on record as saying he will put winning #1 when deciding where to play.

Option 2 will be Carlos Boozer in a similar scenario where Big 3 have to sacrifice less than the Melo scenario.

I am thinking BIG if they opt out, it will be to position them for a more potent, sustainable core for the next 3-4 years.

Long shot but Riley has proven to me that he has the range to connect on long shots.

[ixxa]

Bosh: I'd Take Discount to Stay with Heat
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2077 ... -with-heat


Bosh 4 years 70 (with limited endorsements, could consider to sign with Peak like Jason Kidd, Tony Parker, Shane Battier )

DW 4 years 65 (signed a huge shoe contract "way of wade", and other endorsements, with future position in this organisation)

LBJ opt in

[RexBoyWonder]

I think they're all opt in or they all opt out, it makes sense to restructure together to maximize the cap space and add the best role player/s we can.

Either way I'm 99.9999% sure they all stay, I just wish there was a better free agent then Gortat out there, somebody worth taking a pay cut for. Not really feeling the Ariza hype either.

They're not gonna take a big enough paycut to take anyone in the bracket of talent you're hoping for. Unless they all take substantial paycuts. If it's something like LeBron resigning around $20M and Bosh and LeBron both resigning for anywhere around $30M between the two, then there will be about $5M in capspace plus the use of exceptions (vet min, MLE, rookie). But, the exceptions can't be used until the capspace is already taken up.

So, if that's how it plays out we won't be able to afford the names your not excited about -- Gortat or Ariza.

People need to temper their expectations for this offseason. Whatever capspace Riley magically makes appear will probably be enough for an undervalued player, a young developmental piece, and a discounted vet at the end of their career.

Go look at the numbers more carfully, it can be done.

We'll need 3 things to happen :
1) Big 3 take a discount (Wade takes the biggest one and gets more years in return).
2) Renounce the MLE so it doesn't count under the cap
3) Get Haslem to opt out and come back on a vet min deal.

You do that and we can create enough room for player like Gortat or Ariza. Im not high on either of them, might be better to hold off until the 2016 free agency.

[greg4012]

I think they're all opt in or they all opt out, it makes sense to restructure together to maximize the cap space and add the best role player/s we can.

Either way I'm 99.9999% sure they all stay, I just wish there was a better free agent then Gortat out there, somebody worth taking a pay cut for. Not really feeling the Ariza hype either.

They're not gonna take a big enough paycut to take anyone in the bracket of talent you're hoping for. Unless they all take substantial paycuts. If it's something like LeBron resigning around $20M and Bosh and LeBron both resigning for anywhere around $30M between the two, then there will be about $5M in capspace plus the use of exceptions (vet min, MLE, rookie). But, the exceptions can't be used until the capspace is already taken up.

So, if that's how it plays out we won't be able to afford the names your not excited about -- Gortat or Ariza.

People need to temper their expectations for this offseason. Whatever capspace Riley magically makes appear will probably be enough for an undervalued player, a young developmental piece, and a discounted vet at the end of their career.

Go look at the numbers more carfully, it can be done.

We'll need 3 things to happen :
1) Big 3 take a discount (Wade takes the biggest one and gets more years in return).
2) Renounce the MLE so it doesn't count under the cap
3) Get Haslem to opt out and come back on a vet min deal.

You do that and we can create enough room for player like Gortat or Ariza. Im not high on either of them, might be better to hold off until the 2016 free agency.

Sure, we can also technically sign Melo, Lowry, and Pau Gasol if the big 3 opt out and take $2M contracts, and each of the free agents also take tiny contracts.

In reality though, how can we ask Haslem to do that after he's already left millions on the table more than once to play with the HEAT? Asking the Big 3 to take a discount will surely be done. But, you can't expect an extreme discount. Wade is not going to take any amount that doesn't add up to at least as much (probably more) as he was slated to make over the next 2 years. Same with Bosh. We can't ask LeBron to take a penny less than he wants. Pay the man anything.

There's a difference between sacrificing for winning and straight charity. You're crossing that line with some of your suggestions

[RexBoyWonder]

They're not gonna take a big enough paycut to take anyone in the bracket of talent you're hoping for. Unless they all take substantial paycuts. If it's something like LeBron resigning around $20M and Bosh and LeBron both resigning for anywhere around $30M between the two, then there will be about $5M in capspace plus the use of exceptions (vet min, MLE, rookie). But, the exceptions can't be used until the capspace is already taken up.

So, if that's how it plays out we won't be able to afford the names your not excited about -- Gortat or Ariza.

People need to temper their expectations for this offseason. Whatever capspace Riley magically makes appear will probably be enough for an undervalued player, a young developmental piece, and a discounted vet at the end of their career.

Go look at the numbers more carfully, it can be done.

We'll need 3 things to happen :
1) Big 3 take a discount (Wade takes the biggest one and gets more years in return).
2) Renounce the MLE so it doesn't count under the cap
3) Get Haslem to opt out and come back on a vet min deal.

You do that and we can create enough room for player like Gortat or Ariza. Im not high on either of them, might be better to hold off until the 2016 free agency.

Sure, we can also technically sign Melo, Lowry, and Pau Gasol if the big 3 opt out and take $2M contracts, and each of the free agents also take tiny contracts.

In reality though, how can we ask Haslem to do that after he's already left millions on the table more than once to play with the HEAT? Asking the Big 3 to take a discount will surely be done. But, you can't expect an extreme discount. Wade is not going to take any amount that doesn't add up to at least as much (probably more) as he was slated to make over the next 2 years. Same with Bosh. We can't ask LeBron to take a penny less than he wants. Pay the man anything.

There's a difference between sacrificing for winning and straight charity. You're crossing that line with some of your suggestions

I trust Pat to play it smart and maximize the numbers without ruffling anyones feathers.

For example, you can do something like this :


Adding Gortat :


Salary cap for 2014-2015 = 63.2

Luxury tax threshold for 2014-2015 = 77


Max possible salaey for big 3 (under CBA) - first year = 20 Mil.

Salary breakdown :

[*]Wade - 12 (first year). Resigns at age 32.7 for 4 years - 12, 12.9, 13.8, 14.7 = TOTAL = 53.4 Mil$
(max raise for player with bird rights = 7.5%).

He gets this deal instead of making 41.8 Mil over the next 2 years and then hitting the free market at age 34.7.

So basically it's the same as opting in now for his current deal for 2 more years and then signing a new contract after that for 2 years worth 11.6 Mil after his current deal is up. I think that's a good deal for both sides, let's him retire a Heatel and play with his friends for a contender for the rest of his career.

[*]Bosh (17) - resign at 30.5 for 4 years

[*]LBJ (17) - resign at age 29.7 for 5 years

[*]Haslem - Instead of opting in and make 4.6 and then retire next year, give him the vet min for 3 years, last year as a player/coach Juwan Howard style. (might become full time assistant after that). Makes sense for both sides since UD is a Heatel for life anyway.

[*]Cole - 2

[*]Birdman - 1.4

[*]Drafted player from first round - 1

[*]Rio = Let him walk, make Cole your starter.

Renounce rights to MLE, doesn't count under the cap.



Total salary = 50.4 Mil$ for 6 players.
+
Roster Cap holds - 3 Mil.


= You're left with almost 10 Mil$ under the cap, just enough to get Gortat IMO, and surly Ariza demands less.

Everyone else is got to be on a vet minimum deal :

Allen - vet min
Oden - Vet min
Beasley - Vet min (Gets another $2.33 mil from PHX in 2014-2015)
James Ennis - Vet min
Douglas - Vet min
Second round pick - Vet min
Haslem - vet min.

Cole/Dougles/second rounder
Wade/Allen/second rounder
LBJ/Ennis/Beasley
Bosh/first rounder/Haslem
Gortat/Birdman/Oden

======================


I don't even like Gortat that much, just wanted to show it can be done. Bosh already said he'll take a discount to stay in Miami. For Wade it's a no brainer IMO - he won't make more $ anywhere else and he loves it here. LBJ Is making so much $$$ off the court and understand the importance of winning, I think he's willing to leave 3 Mil$ on the table to stay with his friends in a wining situation and contend for years to come.

[EscapoTHB]

If the Clippers get disenfranchised and their players become free agents, I wonder if they'll go after CP3?

[greg4012]

I trust Pat to play it smart and maximize the numbers without ruffling anyones feathers.

Great post, and I agree with a lot of it. I, too, completely trust Pat.

I'm just not as sure as you are that every ideal version of every individual's contract negotiations will come to fruition.

Those are some HUGE sacrifices compared to 2010. Especially Haslem. Haslem knows he's working in the HEAT organization regardless upon retirement. I don't think he needs to opt out for the vet min (surely an unprecedented act in the History of NBA) to gain more favor.


It is interesting that Gortat was apparently at AAA to watch Game 3

[ixxa]

How about Anderson Varejao ?

I think next season is the last year of his contract and only part of it is guaranteed.

He had a "the chosen 2" tattoo on his back. We all knew who had "the chosen 1" tattoo

[Vertical Limit]

How about Anderson Varejao ?

I think next season is the last year of his contract and only part of it is guaranteed.

He had a "the chosen 2" tattoo on his back. We all knew who had "the chosen 1" tattoo

If he could be healthy it would be nice but the guy hasn't proved he can be... Would be a nice rotation to have him and Andersen.

[RexBoyWonder]

I trust Pat to play it smart and maximize the numbers without ruffling anyones feathers.

Great post, and I agree with a lot of it. I, too, completely trust Pat.

I'm just not as sure as you are that every ideal version of every individual's contract negotiations will come to fruition.

Those are some HUGE sacrifices compared to 2010. Especially Haslem. Haslem knows he's working in the HEAT organization regardless upon retirement. I don't think he needs to opt out for the vet min (surely an unprecedented act in the History of NBA) to gain more favor.


It is interesting that Gortat was apparently at AAA to watch Game 3

Sure it's fair to say Im choosing to take an optimistic approach, while in reality things can get more complicated. But I think we can agree that this team, these players, and the all situation leaves place for optimism. This is no ordinary summer on an average team. Nothing is guaranteed but I see nothing unrealistic about that kind of a scenario. It's certainly much more plausible then the summer we had in 2010.

It is really interesting he was there, you don't usually see players that got knocked out of the playoffs come to see games.

Gortat and Ariza and undoubtedly the best free agents this summer (I don't count Lowery because a PG like him is irrelevant to us). I'm not too high on neither of them, but Giving Ariza some thought...he could be a really interesting option - as a stretch 4. He's very long, and he's athletic. He can probably play the PF position without too much trouble. He's a decent enough rebounder and became a good 3 point shooter - which is crucial for us.

He might be a Battier 2.0 - the super long and young version stretch 4.

[GameTime_3]

As I've stated a few times, I'm going with BIG 3 opt in to this year and next year with a better FA' class, they opt out and restructure the team.

But....If the BIG 3 decide to cash in this year instead of next;

Big 3 resign for less
UD, Bird, Mario, Ray come back.....
Sign Paul Gasol
Sign Caron Butler
Sign Anthony Morrow

2014 Team
-Gasol-Birdman-Oden
-Bosh-UD
-Bron-Butler-Rookie
-Wade-Allen-Morrow
-Mario-Cole

[Vertical Limit]

That would be unfair to the rest of the league... not that I'd complain though... I hope Varejao does get bought out, nice cheaper option and he's just like Birdman, they can rotate the 5 position and we can draft a guy like Patric Young with a late first round pick have him get mentored behind Varejao and Andersen.

[LEIF]

As I've stated a few times, I'm going with BIG 3 opt in to this year and next year with a better FA' class, they opt out and restructure the team.

But....If the BIG 3 decide to cash in this year instead of next;

Big 3 resign for less
UD, Bird, Mario, Ray come back.....
Sign Paul Gasol
Sign Caron Butler
Sign Anthony Morrow

2014 Team
-Gasol-Birdman-Oden
-Bosh-UD
-Bron-Butler-Rookie
-Wade-Allen-Morrow
-Mario-Cole

I love this scenario also.