Salary Cap Scenarios

[JWG324]

This is where we're at right now:

Dragic/Chalmers/Napier
Wade/TJ/Zoran/Richardson
Deng/Winslow/Ennis/Walker
Bosh/Mcroberts/UD
Whiteside/Birdman

I think Walker definitely gets cut and Zoran stays overseas. I think Zoran's $1.5 million contract is too much to be a bench warmer. We have to find a way to get rid of him.

This is more to show our salary cap situation than to predict our roster. I know there's a million different players we can sign, but overall our cap is going to be pretty close to one of these scenarios.

I'm gonna make different scenarios too see where we are with the tax. Scenarios are:
1) Keep everyone, sign Wade to a 1 yr max ($22), Richardon overseas/D league
2) Keep everyone, sign Wade to a $48 mil 3 yr deal, Richardson overseas/D league
3) Keep Wade for 48/3yr, lose Chalmers, replace him with Richardson
4) Keep Wade for 48/3yr, lose Birdman, replace with vet min (i.e Boozer)
5) Keep Wade for the 1 yr max, lose Birdman and Chalmers, keep Richardson, and big (i.e Boozer) for the min
6) Keep Wade for 48/3yr, lose Birdman and Chalmers, keep Richardson, and big (i.e Boozer) for the min.

I project Dragic's contract to start around 15.7 yr 1 and Wade's potential 48/3 yr to start at 14.8. I think we use the mMLE on a wing player, i'll use Gerald Green as an example. For the 3rd string C, i think we use the min, i'll use Joel Anthony as an example.

Projected luxury cap is $81.6 million

Scenario 1
Dragic ($15.7) / Chalmers ($4.3) / Napier ($1.3)
Wade ($22) / Green ($3.3) / TJ ($850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Winslow ($2.5) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ UD ($2.8)
Whiteside ($1)/ Birdman ($5) / Anthony (1.2)

Salary: ~$98.7 million

We'd be 17.2 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 58.2 million in taxes for a total team salary of 151.7 million.

Scenario 2
Dragic ($15.7) / Chalmers ($4.3) / Napier ($1.3)
Wade ($14.8) / Green ($3.3) / TJ ($850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Winslow ($2.5) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ UD ($2.8)
Whiteside ($1)/ Birdman ($5) / Anthony (1.2)

Salary: ~$91.6 million

We'd be 10 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 26.4 million in taxes for a total team salary of 117.8 million.

Scenario 3
Dragic ($15.7) / Napier ($1.3) / Richardson ($500k)
Wade ($14.8) / Green ($3.3) / TJ ($850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Winslow ($2.5) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ UD ($2.8)
Whiteside ($1)/ Birdman ($5) / Anthony (1.2)

Salary: ~$87.8 million

We'd be 6.2 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 16 million in taxes for a total team salary of 103.6 million.

Scenario 4
Dragic ($15.7) / Chalmers ($4.3) / Napier ($1.3)
Wade ($14.8) / Green ($3.3) / TJ ($850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Winslow ($2.5) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ Boozer ($1.2)
Whiteside ($1) / Anthony ($1.2)/ UD ($2.8)

Salary: ~$87.8 million

We'd be 6.2 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 16 million in taxes for a total team salary of 103.6 million.

Scenario 5
Dragic ($15.7) / Napier ($1.3) / Richardson ($500k)
Wade ($22) / Green ($3.3) / TJ ($850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Winslow ($2.5) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ Boozer ($1.2)
Whiteside ($1) / Anthony ($1.2)/ UD ($2.8)

Salary: ~$91.2 million

We'd be 9. 7 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 25.3 million in taxes for a total team salary of 116.25 million.

Scenario 6
Dragic ($15.7) / Napier ($1.3) / Richardson ($500k)
Wade ($14.8) / Green ($3.3) / TJ ($850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Winslow ($2.5) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ Boozer ($1.2)
Whiteside ($1) / Anthony ($1.2)/ UD ($2.8)

Salary: ~$83.95 million

We'd be 2.5 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 6.2 million in taxes for a total team salary of 90 million.

[contract]

That's really great work, but you left out one scenario ... Wade leaving.

[JWG324]

I look at Wade's options and i think it's a remote chance he leaves. But if he leaves and everyone stays we're at 76.4 million. Whoever we sign, i doubt we're gonna pay the tax to get them. So if we wanna get someone like Ellis, we have to dump Chalmers or Bird to makes some room.

I also forgot to add the scenario in which Wade gets the max and we lose Bird and Chalmers. That's scenario 5 now.

As you can see in scenario 1 and 5, giving Wade the max results in a huge tax. So i think Riley and Arison might lean towards giving Wade a long term contract like he wants. If Deng had opted out, giving Wade the max was probably the likeliest outcome, but now i doubt it happens.

[Seabass777]

This is where we're at right now:

Dragic/Chalmers/Napier
Wade/TJ/Zoran/Richardson
Deng/Winslow/Ennis/Walker
Bosh/Mcroberts/UD
Whiteside/Birdman

I think Walker definitely gets cut and Zoran stays overseas. I think Zoran's $1.5 million contract is too much to be a bench warmer. We have to find a way to get rid of him.

This is more to show our salary cap situation than to predict our roster. I know there's a million different players we can sign, but overall our cap is going to be pretty close to one of these scenarios.

I'm gonna make different scenarios too see where we are with the tax. Scenarios are:
1) Keep everyone, sign Wade to a 1 yr max ($23 i think? Correct me if i'm wrong), Richardon overseas/D league
2) Keep everyone, sign Wade to a $48 mil 3 yr deal, Richardson overseas/D league
3) Keep Wade for 48/3yr, lose Chalmers, replace him with Richardson (est. 850K)
4) Keep Wade for 48/3yr, lose Birdman, replace with vet min (i.e Boozer)
5) Keep Wade for the 1 yr max, lose Birdman and Chalmers, keep Richardson, and big (i.e Boozer) for the min
6) Keep Wade for 48/3yr, lose Birdman and Chalmers, keep Richardson, and big (i.e Boozer) for the min.

I think Dragic will accept a $90 mil 5 yr deal that starts at around $16 million. I think we use the mMLE on a wing player, i'll use Dunleavy as an example. For the 3rd string C, i think we use the min, i'll use Joel Anthony as an example.

Projected luxury cap is $81 million

Scenario 1
Dragic ($16) / Chalmers ($4.3) / Napier ($1.3)
Wade ($23) / Winslow ($2) / TJ ($850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Dunleavy (3.3) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ UD ($2.8)
Whiteside ($1)/ Birdman ($5) / Anthony (1.2)

Salary: ~$99.4 million

We'd be 18.4 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 58.2 million in taxes for a total team salary of 157.6 million.



Scenario 2
Dragic ($16) / Chalmers ($4.3) / Napier ($1.3)
Wade ($16) / Winslow ($2) / TJ ($850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Dunleavy (3.3) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ UD ($2.8)
Whiteside ($1)/ Birdman ($5) / Anthony (1.2)

Salary: ~$92.4 million

We'd be 11.4 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 31.15 million in taxes for a total team salary of 123.6 million.

Scenario 3
Dragic ($16) / Napier ($1.3)
Wade ($16) / Winslow ($2) / TJ ($850k)/ Richardson (850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Dunleavy (3.3) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ UD ($2.8)
Whiteside ($1)/ Birdman ($5) / Anthony (1.2)

Salary: ~$88.95 million

We'd be 7.95 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 20.6 million in taxes for a total team salary of 109.55 million.

Scenario 4
Dragic ($16) / Chalmers ($4.3) / Napier ($1.3)
Wade ($16) / Winslow ($2) / TJ ($850k)/
Deng ($10.1) / Dunleavy (3.3) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ Boozer ($1.2)
Whiteside ($1) / Anthony ($1.2)/ UD ($2.8)

Salary: ~$88.6 million

We'd be 7.6 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 19.65 million in taxes for a total team salary of 108.25 million.

Scenario 5
Dragic ($16) / Napier ($1.3)
Wade ($23) / Winslow ($2) / TJ ($850k)/ Richardson (850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Dunleavy (3.3) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ Boozer ($1.2)
Whiteside ($1) / Anthony ($1.2)/ UD ($2.8)

Salary: ~$90.95 million

We'd be 9.95 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 26.25 million in taxes for a total team salary of 107.25 million.

Scenario 6
Dragic ($16) / Napier ($1.3)
Wade ($16) / Winslow ($2) / TJ ($850k)/ Richardson (850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Dunleavy (3.3) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5)/ Boozer ($1.2)
Whiteside ($1) / Anthony ($1.2)/ UD ($2.8)

Salary: ~$83.95 million

We'd be 2.95 million over the luxury tax. Using the repeater rate we'd pay 7.4 million in taxes for a total team salary of 91.35 million.

Nice work.

Dunleavy wants to resign with the Bulls,so maybe Gerald Green for that 3.3 mini MLE?

I don't feel that Boozer is exactly what we need for a Birdman replacement in the event that he gets traded,a 6'9 PF that can't play defense,and doesen't really provide anything that Udonis Haslem can't give you.

I'd be nice to get a cheap tall backup big in Dleague or something IMO,or Udoh,hell maybe we take a chance on Upshaw after we see how he does in the summer leagues lol.

[Flashpoint]

Great work breaking it down. Option 5 is the best solution. Let the max quiet down Wade's ego so he's prepared for a realistic contract when we make our move in 2016. Field a competitive team and don't lose anything that matters.

[JWG324]

Nice work.

Dunleavy wants to resign with the Bulls,so maybe Gerald Green for that 3.3 mini MLE?

I don't feel that Boozer is exactly what we need for a Birdman replacement in the event that he gets traded,a 6'9 PF that can't play defense,and doesen't really provide anything that Udonis Haslem can't give you.

I'd be nice to get a cheap tall backup big in Dleague or something IMO,or Udoh,hell maybe we take a chance on Upshaw after we see how he does in the summer leagues lol.

Thanks

Basically i just used those players as variables. You can plug in X, Y, Z player but the money doesn't change because it's either the mMLE or the vet min. I did this more to show our options and how it effects our salary cap, not so much to predict the roster. There's so many ways to go lol.

[Seabass777]

Nice work.

Dunleavy wants to resign with the Bulls,so maybe Gerald Green for that 3.3 mini MLE?

I don't feel that Boozer is exactly what we need for a Birdman replacement in the event that he gets traded,a 6'9 PF that can't play defense,and doesen't really provide anything that Udonis Haslem can't give you.

I'd be nice to get a cheap tall backup big in Dleague or something IMO,or Udoh,hell maybe we take a chance on Upshaw after we see how he does in the summer leagues lol.

Thanks

Basically i just used those players as variables. You can plug in X, Y, Z player but the money doesn't change because it's either the mMLE or the vet min. I did this more to show our options and how it effects our salary cap, not so much to predict the roster. There's so many ways to go lol.

Andy would be proud.

[JWG324]

If we we're to dump Chalmers, i wouldn't mind using the mMLE for Barea and signing Butler for the min.

Dragic ($16) / Barea ($1.2) / Napier ($1.3)
Wade ($16) / Winslow ($2) / TJ ($850k)
Deng ($10.1) / Green ($ 3.3) / Ennis ($850k)
Bosh ($22.2) / Mcroberts ($5.5) / UD ($2.8)
Whiteside ($1) / Dalembert ($1.2) / Anthony ($1.2)

Salary cap: $85.5 million
Total: 96.75

If Wade gets the max:
Salary cap: $92.5 million

Total including tax: $124 million

[JWG324]

Nice work.

Dunleavy wants to resign with the Bulls,so maybe Gerald Green for that 3.3 mini MLE?

I don't feel that Boozer is exactly what we need for a Birdman replacement in the event that he gets traded,a 6'9 PF that can't play defense,and doesen't really provide anything that Udonis Haslem can't give you.

I'd be nice to get a cheap tall backup big in Dleague or something IMO,or Udoh,hell maybe we take a chance on Upshaw after we see how he does in the summer leagues lol.

Thanks

Basically i just used those players as variables. You can plug in X, Y, Z player but the money doesn't change because it's either the mMLE or the vet min. I did this more to show our options and how it effects our salary cap, not so much to predict the roster. There's so many ways to go lol.

Andy would be proud.

[Chalm Down]

Good stuff. I think Scenario 5 is the one I most prefer. Wade gets paid, luxury tax is not outrageous, etc. I would really like to keep Bird, though. So many good memories of him from the 2013 title.

Also, wouldn't mind adding a vet min guard as insurance if Chalmers is traded. I want to trust Bazz/TJ, but they're still kind of inexperienced.

[Shewasfly]

First time learning something on here, thanks!

Can you do a scenario where Wade earns that 3 years $60 million he is rumored to want (I guess that would be $20m every season)? It seems it'd only be a luxury tax issue in the first season, right? (not that I care about luxury tax tbh, I think Micky Arison is gonna be just fine).

[Hoops23]

if wade ask $20m or more per year, let him go. $23m is too much... I wonder what team will give him that much money for a 35 yr old player who cannot complete playing for 82 games nor 70.

What ever Wade signs with Miami, thats his market value.

[JWG324]

First time learning something on here, thanks!

Can you do a scenario where Wade earns that 3 years $60 million he is rumored to want (I guess that would be $20m every season)? It seems it'd only be a luxury tax issue in the first season, right? (not that I care about luxury tax tbh, I think Micky Arison is gonna be just fine).

There's a remote chance we offer him that since it forces us DEEP into the tax, ruins the 2016 free agency, and makes signing Whiteside very difficult.

[Shewasfly]

First time learning something on here, thanks!

Can you do a scenario where Wade earns that 3 years $60 million he is rumored to want (I guess that would be $20m every season)? It seems it'd only be a luxury tax issue in the first season, right? (not that I care about luxury tax tbh, I think Micky Arison is gonna be just fine).

There's a remote chance we offer him that since it forces us DEEP into the tax, ruins the 2016 free agency, and makes signing Whiteside very difficult.

Signing Whiteside becomes difficult really?? It seemed like everyone was saying the only problem with paying Wade was "flexibility" and 2016. If the cap goes up as much as its supposed to, I didn't think giving Whiteside a contract would be a problem at all.

[JWG324]

First time learning something on here, thanks!

Can you do a scenario where Wade earns that 3 years $60 million he is rumored to want (I guess that would be $20m every season)? It seems it'd only be a luxury tax issue in the first season, right? (not that I care about luxury tax tbh, I think Micky Arison is gonna be just fine).

There's a remote chance we offer him that since it forces us DEEP into the tax, ruins the 2016 free agency, and makes signing Whiteside very difficult.

Signing Whiteside becomes difficult really?? It seemed like everyone was saying the only problem with paying Wade was "flexibility" and 2016. If the cap goes up as much as its supposed to, I didn't think giving Whiteside a contract would be a problem at all.

Dragic 18
Wade 20
Winslow 2
Bosh 23.7
Whiteside 21
Mcroberts 5.7
This year's mMLE ~3.5

Total: 93.9
Projected 2016 Salary Cap (could possibly be a couple million lower): 89

Add all the cap holds and our salary is even higher.

We'd definitely have to move some people around. Teams will use this to their advantage and ask for a hefty price to dump Mcroberts and our mMLE player because they'd know it means we could then sign Whiteside. It would definitely be a mess. Even Wade getting 16 per yr would still be a tricky summer, but a lot more manageable.

[Shewasfly]

There's a remote chance we offer him that since it forces us DEEP into the tax, ruins the 2016 free agency, and makes signing Whiteside very difficult.

Signing Whiteside becomes difficult really?? It seemed like everyone was saying the only problem with paying Wade was "flexibility" and 2016. If the cap goes up as much as its supposed to, I didn't think giving Whiteside a contract would be a problem at all.

Dragic 18
Wade 20
Winslow 2
Bosh 23.7
Whiteside 21
Mcroberts 5.7
This year's mMLE ~3.5

Total: 93.9
Projected 2016 Salary Cap (could possibly be a couple million lower): 89

Add all the cap holds and our salary is even higher.

We'd definitely have to move some people around. Teams will use this to their advantage and ask for a hefty price to dump Mcroberts and our mMLE player because they'd know it means we could then sign Whiteside. It would definitely be a mess. Even Wade getting 16 per yr would still be a tricky summer, but a lot more manageable.

Got it, thanks for the explanation!

[greg4012]

This thread needs more attention. Seems like more posters are even willing to learn in this format

[MartyConlonJr]

I think what Miami wants to do is get Wade on a 1 year max, while avoiding the tax - placate Wade, remain flexible in 2016, but also not pay the tax in a 'down' year where we arent necessarily a contender. You want a few non tax years between contending teams so you arent crippled by repeater taxes (like we are now).

I doubt we use the mMLE this year. I think we end up with a possibility that Chalmers, Birdman and Deng are all moved for space if the opportunity exists. On the other hand, Riley may be happy to keep them till the trade deadline, see how we are going and if we are in contention, pay the tax.

That package of 3 expirings of productive players around 20 mill, plus Winslow, is also a good package if a guy like Durant shakes loose at the deadline, and Winslow has proven himself a rising player of at least starter quality.

[JWG324]

Look at scenario 5. Giving Wade the 1 yr max and being under the tax is impossible. Even we dump Mcroberts and not use the mMLE, we're only shedding 8.9. Replace them with two vet min player (2.4) and you're looking at 84.45 million, 3.45 million over the tax. That translates to a total salary of 93 million. It isn't much, but considering the fact we have absolutely no depth it's best to just bite the bullet and pay more tax.

[MartyConlonJr]

Look at scenario 5. Giving Wade the 1 yr max and being under the tax is impossible. Even we dump Mcroberts and not use the mMLE, we're only shedding 8.9. Replace them with two vet min player (2.4) and you're looking at 84.45 million, 3.45 million over the tax. That translates to a total salary of 93 million. It isn't much, but considering the fact we have absolutely no depth it's best to just bite the bullet and pay more tax.

I mentioned in my post that Deng, Chalmers and Bird would have to go for my scenario, and we don't use the mMLE. I bet you could offer Deng to Lakers or Knicks with ease and maybe they would take Chalmers and or Bird

PG - Dragic (16.0) / Napier / Richardson
SG - Wade (23.5) / Johnson
SF - Winslow / Ennis
PF - Bosh / McRoberts / Haslem
C - Whiteside / Bosh

Rest are vet mins, not sure what that ends up as. I'd prefer having Deng here - I think a 3 man rotation at SG/SF of Wade, Deng, Winslow and a 3 man rotation at PF/C of Bosh, Whiteside, Mcroberts takes most of the mons, abd Dragic + Napier is enough for the PG position.

I think the problem in negotiations is Miami wants to break the repeater cycle this year in prep for 2016, but a max for Wade causes the issue above, while 2016 is the year to get FA and backloading Wade with more money later screws that plan, which is why Wade is getting an overall low offer