I think KD is coming next year
Posted: Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:50 am
This is going to be a long post, so fair warning.
Like a lot of us when I first heard about Riley planning to go after KD in '16 I brushed it off and viewed it as highly unlikely. His options would either be to stay with the Thunder or go to the Wizards. But through the course of this offseason and after more thought I've had a change of heart. Players take notice of how an organization runs itself and puts itself into positions to succeed and Riley is doing an incredible job of that this season. Guys are buying into the idea and signing one year contracts for far less money than they could get elsewhere to come here (more on that later). Riley is handling his business internally (getting all our guys back) and convincing free agents externally to give up money to play here. This is always an attractive spot to play and free agents will accept less to come here, and Riley is the GOAT closer. I 100% believe KD is paying attention to this and I don't think Riley's confidence in being able to make a run at KD is based off pure belief in himself. People believe KD would not jump ship from OKC for anywhere but Washington because of loyalty and are applying the LeBron/Jordan stigma to him that he should have guys come to him and stay put where he is at. However, what recent free agent history has taught me (and NBA history in general) is that these guys WILL leave the team that drafted them for a better winning situation, and KD is NOT Jordan or LeBron and wasn't expected to be, and as far as loyalty goes he could very well look and say he gave the first 8-9 years of his career to OKC but recognizes that they've hit their ceiling and it is simply time to move on to win. Superstar free agents do this all the time, there are only a couple in history who actually stay where they're at, and even those threatened to jump ship if their orgs did not do a better job of surrounding them with talent. People believe KD is not the type to do that because he is laid back and somewhat quiet, but I think he is very apt to leave and just will not do it in a dramatic way like some other free agents.
I think whether KD looks at us as a serious option depends on three things: 1) how the Thunder lose, 2) what the Wizards look like next year, and 3) how far we make it in the playoffs. If the Thunder are bounced in the second round again next year or worse, I think he will seriously consider leaving to start winning and the organization will have no one to blame but themselves for letting Harden go. Second, if the Wizards implode (which I think has a good chance of happening for several reasons) he is not going to go there just because it's a team in his hometown. If these two things fall into place and KD takes a serious look at the lay of the land in the league, he will be hard-pressed to find a better situation for him than the Heat. Nay, we are definitely THE BEST situation for him to come to both on and off the court and it's not even close. The roster Riley has put together is the perfect compliment to KD with a bunch of vets with championship experience and selfless attitudes to surround him, as well as a young defensive wing in Winslow to back him up and keep his minutes down. And their skill set fits. We have two elite ball handlers in the backcourt to get KD easy buckets who are not going to try to overshadow him and be Batman like Westbrook. And, obviously, are highly offensively capable themselves. A stretch 4 that will space the court for him and a legit 7 foot defensive center that will cover up any mistakes he makes on defense as well as being offensively capable and not a sieve on that end of the court. Then on the bench we have several highly capable offensive weapons and, again, a great versatile, defensive wing in Winslow. KD is going to look at this roster and see that no one in the league will fit him better and there is no other team in the league that he can realistically go to and literally punch a ticket to a championship with like us. Which brings up the point of how well we do in the playoffs. If we make it to the ECF (let alone maybe even the Finals) the pitch for Riley to KD pretty much writes itself and is inarguable. All he has to say is we made it THIS far without you, and you alone are the missing piece between us and a potential dynasty. And then drop all his 9 rings on the table. KD will be 28 and he will KNOW it is time for him to start winning something, as Dragic said in his press conference yesterday.
We will be in an unique position pretty much no other team will be in, where we have a highly capable roster that can contend for a championship NOW while still having the cap space to be able to bring in KD for the max and still retain all of or most of our important pieces. We will be the only team in the league with a championship history and pedigree, with a roster ready to win now, with the cap space to sign KD for the max. The Lakers will not be in that position, the Knicks won't, the Bulls won't, the Spurs/Warriors/Grizzlies etc etc. We are the only ones. It puts us at an unique advantage, on top of being recognized as an A Class organization league wide, no state income tax, South Beach, etc. We are just the perfect landing spot on and off for KD.
I think drafting Justise will end up being huge in getting KD for more reasons than one. Having Winslow back KD up will be extremely appealing to him and I think he is going to recognize that Winslow can be his running mate into his twilight years after Wade retires and for now it's going to be really comforting for him to know he can sit and his position not be an albatross behind him. I think the one advantage the Wizards may have had over us (other than being from KD's hometown) is that Wall and Beal are relatively young and they would clearly be able to run with KD for years while here Wade's and to a certain extent Bosh's days are numbered (although I think Bosh can have a similar career trajectory as Pau and Duncan). With the emergence of Whiteside and the drafting of Winslow, that advantage now becomes null and void and possibly even an advantage for us depending on how those two look this year in comparison to Wall and Beal. Second, and what we all know is most obvious, is that Winslow and KD share the same agent/agency and are already building a relationship. These types of relationships are extremely important in getting free agents and KD is going to hear all about how great an organization the Heat is for the next year, and his agent will trust us and maybe even look specifically to try and get him here.
Finally, going back to the free agent signings, I do not think Gerald Green, Amare, D-Wade, are just signing these one year deals without knowing something. D-Wade aside, Amare and Green, who have no real prior connection to the Heat or reason to help us out to the extent they have, I don't believe are just giving up money and guaranteed years to HOPEFULLY be on a contender this year. I think they are giving us that flexibility for a reason, and know something is going to be going down in South Beach and want to hop on this year and get acclimated and re-up on another cheap deal next year. I think they know, for whatever reason, that Riley has a good chance of signing the big fish he wants next year.
A little bit of fortune will be involved in bringing in KD, but I think it is A LOT more possible than I did just a couple weeks ago and I can clearly see how it could happen now. Riley is on a rampage and no one can tell me that if he gets KD in a room with cap space to sign him and a team that clearly showed they are ready to win, that he can't get him to HEAVILY consider coming to South Beach, and once it's in his head it will be hard to say no to. For me next season will be an audition for KD, honestly, and wherever we end up is going to determine whether he comes here or not. I don't expect a championship, I think we have a shot to win the East but we are just missing that singular superstar to help get us over whatever team comes out the West. But even without a ship this year, and even if we lose to Cleveland, if we do enough to impress KD, I will consider this season a success.
Oh, and I forgot to mention, we're in the East lol, so KD will be able to get out of the annual bloodbath that is the West with us as well, and put himself in position immediately to be at the top of the conference.
Like a lot of us when I first heard about Riley planning to go after KD in '16 I brushed it off and viewed it as highly unlikely. His options would either be to stay with the Thunder or go to the Wizards. But through the course of this offseason and after more thought I've had a change of heart. Players take notice of how an organization runs itself and puts itself into positions to succeed and Riley is doing an incredible job of that this season. Guys are buying into the idea and signing one year contracts for far less money than they could get elsewhere to come here (more on that later). Riley is handling his business internally (getting all our guys back) and convincing free agents externally to give up money to play here. This is always an attractive spot to play and free agents will accept less to come here, and Riley is the GOAT closer. I 100% believe KD is paying attention to this and I don't think Riley's confidence in being able to make a run at KD is based off pure belief in himself. People believe KD would not jump ship from OKC for anywhere but Washington because of loyalty and are applying the LeBron/Jordan stigma to him that he should have guys come to him and stay put where he is at. However, what recent free agent history has taught me (and NBA history in general) is that these guys WILL leave the team that drafted them for a better winning situation, and KD is NOT Jordan or LeBron and wasn't expected to be, and as far as loyalty goes he could very well look and say he gave the first 8-9 years of his career to OKC but recognizes that they've hit their ceiling and it is simply time to move on to win. Superstar free agents do this all the time, there are only a couple in history who actually stay where they're at, and even those threatened to jump ship if their orgs did not do a better job of surrounding them with talent. People believe KD is not the type to do that because he is laid back and somewhat quiet, but I think he is very apt to leave and just will not do it in a dramatic way like some other free agents.
I think whether KD looks at us as a serious option depends on three things: 1) how the Thunder lose, 2) what the Wizards look like next year, and 3) how far we make it in the playoffs. If the Thunder are bounced in the second round again next year or worse, I think he will seriously consider leaving to start winning and the organization will have no one to blame but themselves for letting Harden go. Second, if the Wizards implode (which I think has a good chance of happening for several reasons) he is not going to go there just because it's a team in his hometown. If these two things fall into place and KD takes a serious look at the lay of the land in the league, he will be hard-pressed to find a better situation for him than the Heat. Nay, we are definitely THE BEST situation for him to come to both on and off the court and it's not even close. The roster Riley has put together is the perfect compliment to KD with a bunch of vets with championship experience and selfless attitudes to surround him, as well as a young defensive wing in Winslow to back him up and keep his minutes down. And their skill set fits. We have two elite ball handlers in the backcourt to get KD easy buckets who are not going to try to overshadow him and be Batman like Westbrook. And, obviously, are highly offensively capable themselves. A stretch 4 that will space the court for him and a legit 7 foot defensive center that will cover up any mistakes he makes on defense as well as being offensively capable and not a sieve on that end of the court. Then on the bench we have several highly capable offensive weapons and, again, a great versatile, defensive wing in Winslow. KD is going to look at this roster and see that no one in the league will fit him better and there is no other team in the league that he can realistically go to and literally punch a ticket to a championship with like us. Which brings up the point of how well we do in the playoffs. If we make it to the ECF (let alone maybe even the Finals) the pitch for Riley to KD pretty much writes itself and is inarguable. All he has to say is we made it THIS far without you, and you alone are the missing piece between us and a potential dynasty. And then drop all his 9 rings on the table. KD will be 28 and he will KNOW it is time for him to start winning something, as Dragic said in his press conference yesterday.
We will be in an unique position pretty much no other team will be in, where we have a highly capable roster that can contend for a championship NOW while still having the cap space to be able to bring in KD for the max and still retain all of or most of our important pieces. We will be the only team in the league with a championship history and pedigree, with a roster ready to win now, with the cap space to sign KD for the max. The Lakers will not be in that position, the Knicks won't, the Bulls won't, the Spurs/Warriors/Grizzlies etc etc. We are the only ones. It puts us at an unique advantage, on top of being recognized as an A Class organization league wide, no state income tax, South Beach, etc. We are just the perfect landing spot on and off for KD.
I think drafting Justise will end up being huge in getting KD for more reasons than one. Having Winslow back KD up will be extremely appealing to him and I think he is going to recognize that Winslow can be his running mate into his twilight years after Wade retires and for now it's going to be really comforting for him to know he can sit and his position not be an albatross behind him. I think the one advantage the Wizards may have had over us (other than being from KD's hometown) is that Wall and Beal are relatively young and they would clearly be able to run with KD for years while here Wade's and to a certain extent Bosh's days are numbered (although I think Bosh can have a similar career trajectory as Pau and Duncan). With the emergence of Whiteside and the drafting of Winslow, that advantage now becomes null and void and possibly even an advantage for us depending on how those two look this year in comparison to Wall and Beal. Second, and what we all know is most obvious, is that Winslow and KD share the same agent/agency and are already building a relationship. These types of relationships are extremely important in getting free agents and KD is going to hear all about how great an organization the Heat is for the next year, and his agent will trust us and maybe even look specifically to try and get him here.
Finally, going back to the free agent signings, I do not think Gerald Green, Amare, D-Wade, are just signing these one year deals without knowing something. D-Wade aside, Amare and Green, who have no real prior connection to the Heat or reason to help us out to the extent they have, I don't believe are just giving up money and guaranteed years to HOPEFULLY be on a contender this year. I think they are giving us that flexibility for a reason, and know something is going to be going down in South Beach and want to hop on this year and get acclimated and re-up on another cheap deal next year. I think they know, for whatever reason, that Riley has a good chance of signing the big fish he wants next year.
A little bit of fortune will be involved in bringing in KD, but I think it is A LOT more possible than I did just a couple weeks ago and I can clearly see how it could happen now. Riley is on a rampage and no one can tell me that if he gets KD in a room with cap space to sign him and a team that clearly showed they are ready to win, that he can't get him to HEAVILY consider coming to South Beach, and once it's in his head it will be hard to say no to. For me next season will be an audition for KD, honestly, and wherever we end up is going to determine whether he comes here or not. I don't expect a championship, I think we have a shot to win the East but we are just missing that singular superstar to help get us over whatever team comes out the West. But even without a ship this year, and even if we lose to Cleveland, if we do enough to impress KD, I will consider this season a success.
Oh, and I forgot to mention, we're in the East lol, so KD will be able to get out of the annual bloodbath that is the West with us as well, and put himself in position immediately to be at the top of the conference.
I'll be happy with either one.