RealGM

Since it seems apparent that the Heat are now designating big minutes to Bam. I think its time and right to create a trend tracking his development. In all he was drafted as a project, very raw with a lot of physical ability. So here wil we and I add stats or discussion debating his develop to areas of his game that we think are key.

Is he Dwight Howard, is he Shawn Kemp, is he Tristan Thompson or is something new BAM!

Good idea. I have most relevant impact stats for rookies since 2003 in an excel sheet already. I'll compile them to compare how Bam's rookie season stacks up against all Centers since the Wade class. Hopefully I'll have an hour over sometime next week.

Here is Bam Offensive and Defensive Rating through out this season.

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I believe I seen Bam take two or three no hesitation jumpers the past few games when left open.

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After every game I just about go to basketball reference and check the per 36 comparison to Shawn Kemp at the same age. They are eerily similar. Bam looks like the superior player slightly, but in smaller minutes and with lower usage, but it is slowly creeping up:

Mpg: Bam's per36 is based against 20.6 mpg vs Kemps 30.1 mpg, so increased mins could tend Bam's stats downwards slightly as fatigue or playing against more starting caliber players has an impact, though more time on court may mean more improvement too

FG%: Bam with clear lead 54.7 to 50.8. He has a lower usage though and if that increased it to Kemp usage, this number would come down. Bam only shoots 9.7 times per36 to Kemps 13.4
3PT: Not a large element of eithers game, Kemp shot 16.7% (2/12), Bam currently 0/3
FT%: Bam leads 70.6% to 66.1%. Kemp has a higher free throw rate than Bam of 6.4 attempts per36 vs 5.5, though Bam has far lower usage (22.4 to 16.5), and at similar usage you would probably expect Bam's foul drawing rate to increase beyond this (est 7.46)
Oreb: slight advantage to Kemp at 3.9 to 3.7, though a couple of games ago they were tied.
Dreb: Clear advantage to Bam at 8.6 to 6.1, though some of this is attributable probably to the lack of centers in the game - Bam is going to get more rebounds next to a PF Winslow than Kemp could next to C's Benoit Benjamin, Michael Cage and Olden Polynice
Assists: Clear advantage Bam 2.8 to 2.1, though again in this era of guards and screen handoffs for 3's, hard to compare
Steals: small advantage Bam 1.3 to 1.1
Blocks: small advantage Kemp 1.8 to 1.7, but Bam is trending upwards. A week or two ago he was at 1.4
Turnovers: clear advantage Bam, 2.1 to 3, though again with increased usage this would come closer to even
Fouls: Slight advantage Bam 4.3 to 4.7
Points: Clear advantage Kemp 17.9 to 14.5

Summary: Bam and Kemp have similar stats except in scoring where Bams percentages are better and foul rates are superior for his usage, but he isn't getting responsibility to score. Kemp has higher ppg at lower efficiency and higher usage. To me, given the same usage, Bam would show same or better scoring (if you give him 3.7 more scoring attempts a game would you get 3.4 more ppg?)

Bam's attempting 5.5 field goals a game. I would like to see him get that up to 8-9 attempts, maybe even 10. If Richardson can jack it up 16 times a game I think Bam should be getting his shots too. There are so many looks he passes up every game, specifically while bringing the ball up the floor or as the screen man.

kobewade11 wrote:Bam's attempting 5.5 field goals a game. I would like to see him get that up to 8-9 attempts, maybe even 10. If Richardson can jack it up 16 times a game I think Bam should be getting his shots too. There are so many looks he passes up every game, specifically while bringing the ball up the floor or as the screen man.

Well Bam game is only as a finisher right now. He is currently solely dependant on a passer. The only way I can see him create shots in this scheme is by handling the ball on fastbreaks

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If we could have nabbed Fox in the same draft, we could have the new age Payton/Kemp;)

Would love to see what he could do with more touches and a green light.

Decided to include sophomore seasons as well for a model with better predictive accuracy. Should have it up tomorrow night EU time.

Is Bam closer to Howard or TT? it shall be answered once and for all.

How many of the top 5 Rookie+Sophomore seasons for the Center position (minimum 30% as Center) since the 2003 draft class can you name?

See ya mfers tomorrow.

Took me a minute to get the 2nd year #s but I got there and the model turned out even better than expected. Remember that the final career projection is made with 1st and 2nd season data alone. I'd say the predictive power is very strong. With that said Bam's season is far from over and much and more is yet to come. A Final update with the complete Bam numbers will be up when time is.

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It looks pretty good overall. Defensively very much so. All impact numbers really like Bam. If you want a single number to know how impactful Bam is when on court compared to the other names I'd look at the cal148 columns. What is holding him back in this career projecting model or whatever is two things.

1) His lack of minutes. Minutes generally serves as a good proxy over if a player is dependable aka do player execute the scheme and task at hand. Alternatively how dependent the team is on the player to function properly. Being able to play big minutes is also a good indicator on general physical ability and or matchup dependency (think Olynyk, Excellent player for what he is but can't play big minutes and struggles in certain scenarios) Now, most of us believe Bam could/should handle more minutes and that Whiteside is in his way but the model has to be free from subjective treatment.

2) USG%. It's simply a proxy for actual or likely future offensive role/workload. Coached and teammates are more likely to give you the ball if they think it will help the team win.

Horford had a short jumper early, Noah never had a jumper. Both All-Stars, defensive beasts that could switch on to just about anyone in their prime. I'd look to these guys as early career comps esp the per100 & "advanced section"

A Bam 3ball would be career altering no doubt.

Oh, and the Tristan comp needs to end if it hasn't already.

Very interesting work, caliban. Did you post this on the stats forum? They might worship you there.

wtf do those numbers even mean

Someone internally is going to have to challenge him to be more agressive. An assertive Bam could change the immediate trajectory of this team, he’s only showing 40-50% of his ability right now.

kobewade11 wrote:Someone internally is going to have to challenge him to be more agressive. An assertive Bam could change the immediate trajectory of this team, he’s only showing 40-50% of his ability right now.

If his development turns out anything like Winslow's then I think we are in good shape. What the Winslow situation has taught me is patience with players who are only 20 years old is paramount. We live in such fast paced quick results society that it's hard to grasp that concept from time to time.

Bam is noticebly attempting more midrange jump shots. Can someone track how many he is taking? I think I seen 2 last game?

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MettaWorldPanda wrote:

kobewade11 wrote:Someone internally is going to have to challenge him to be more agressive. An assertive Bam could change the immediate trajectory of this team, he’s only showing 40-50% of his ability right now.

If his development turns out anything like Winslow's then I think we are in good shape. What the Winslow situation has taught me is patience with players who are only 20 years old is paramount. We live in such fast paced quick results society that it's hard to grasp that concept from time to time.

I think with Winslow a lot of ppl (not myself) were saying “he cant”, with Bam it seems like he needs a public endorsement to take off. I dont even care about his stats, making or missing, I just want to see him assert himself. Last game he had a wide open 3 to shoot in rhythm and he passed it up. Damn near every pick and roll he has a chance to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket. Im not disappointed in Bam, I just know he’s capable of doing more.

kobewade11 wrote:

MettaWorldPanda wrote:

kobewade11 wrote:Someone internally is going to have to challenge him to be more agressive. An assertive Bam could change the immediate trajectory of this team, he’s only showing 40-50% of his ability right now.

If his development turns out anything like Winslow's then I think we are in good shape. What the Winslow situation has taught me is patience with players who are only 20 years old is paramount. We live in such fast paced quick results society that it's hard to grasp that concept from time to time.

I think with Winslow a lot of ppl (not myself) were saying “he cant”, with Bam it seems like he needs a public endorsement to take off. I dont even care about his stats, making or missing, I just want to see him assert himself. Last game he had a wide open 3 to shoot in rhythm and he passed it up. Damn near every pick and roll he has a chance to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket. Im not disappointed in Bam, I just know he’s capable of doing more.

Yeah I can't believe coaches are pointing this out to him. That should be an easy adjustment for him if he is aware that teams are now backing way off of him.

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DayofMourning wrote:Very interesting work, caliban. Did you post this on the stats forum? They might worship you there.

Haven't been there in years, might look into it. I do post some stat heavy stuff on the TnT board from time to time. I'll let this rest here for a week or two then I might post it there related to Allen's and Bam's underrated Trade Value or something. Could be interesting.

kobewade11 wrote:wtf do those numbers even mean

Hard to answer such a general question in a simple yet effective way but I'll give it a quick stab.

It's basically a stat mix tested to predict future wins based on a player on court production × mpg and usg as seen above tied to a NBA aging curve for Centers. The last rows are just a relative grade over their seasons from 0 - 100. Couldn't come up with anything better on short notice.

The exact details would take pages and I'm not looking to be completley sientificly sound with the model right now due to it simply being to few relevant finished careers to test it against. It's just the best estimate I could do with the time I had at hand.

Bam and Justise both need to make an example out of J-Rich in terms of assertiveness. Justise seems to be slowly getting there, though.

I really feel like assertiveness is what holds the trio back from showing their true potential (In Bam's case, it's also Hassan's presence).