Official Offseason thread Vol 3: Bck2BACK

[HIF]

Read on Twitter

Very very doubtful

why do you think that?

[HIF]

Heat have signed Mychal Mulder

Watch on YouTube

Now we're cooking.

[Mos_Heat]

Why? It may have a bad contract attached to it since most teams probably have to match salary.

Ok, what team that is currently in the tax would trade a 1st for Dragic? Or you think someone wants to create cap space for historically bad FA class?

Doesn't have to be exactly in the tax this season, may want to create more flexibility in the future.
Just going over rosters really quick, I can come up with...
- Milwaukee wants to get off Bledsoe's money and possibly get a better playoff performer in the playoffs?
1. Bad deal for Miami. 2. 34 years old Dragic might not be better than Bledsoe anyway
- Detroit doesn't want to waste another Blake season and wants to swap Jackson for Dragic, probably expand the trade to add in Snell and maybe take on someone like J.Johnson and whatever small pieces that had to be included.
Mid 1st is too high of a price for swaping the same amount of money and relatively close talent
- Washington in a desperate attempt to not upset Beal this season could try to bring Dragic in for a combination of Mahinmi and 1 or 2 other contracts(might have to be a bigger package). I get RIley wants Beal but an asset to use in a near future trade.
I don't see it
- Dallas, packages built around Hardaway or after Dec 15th like C.Lee and someone(s) elese for Dragic.
That is posible in theory, but I'm not sure Riley will have any business with Dallas after this summer
- Minnesota would love to get rid of Dieng a year early(in a small package) but they'd push the #1 pick off for a few(maybe 3-4) years and it might make a lot of sense if Minnesota goes after D.Lo and havin a guy like Dragic(even in a 3 team trade) would help keep GS's rotation strong this year and possibly the next few years(if they resign him).
If GSW would want a guard, Minny could just throw in Teague
- Portland, if A.Simons doesn't do as well as they'd like and they don't need Bazemore, could do a Bazemore/Dragic swap throwing in a 1st to really strengthen their roster and of course they may make A.Simons available in a trade package with Whiteside(once Nurkic is back and fine) for K.Love. For Portland they have a path to have a strong 8 man rotation of starting Lillard, CJ, Hood/Hezonja, Love, Nurkic with Dragic, Z.Collins and one of Hood/Hezonja coming off the bench.
not sure that trading the only theoretical wing defender for another guard is a good idea

[Mos_Heat]

Read on Twitter

Very very doubtful

why do you think that?

I don't think Dragic has that type of a value, not now at least. Maybe closer to trade deadline

[AirP.]

Ok, what team that is currently in the tax would trade a 1st for Dragic? Or you think someone wants to create cap space for historically bad FA class?

Doesn't have to be exactly in the tax this season, may want to create more flexibility in the future.
Just going over rosters really quick, I can come up with...
- Milwaukee wants to get off Bledsoe's money and possibly get a better playoff performer in the playoffs?
1. Bad deal for Miami. 2. 34 years old Dragic might not be better than Bledsoe anyway
- Detroit doesn't want to waste another Blake season and wants to swap Jackson for Dragic, probably expand the trade to add in Snell and maybe take on someone like J.Johnson and whatever small pieces that had to be included.
Mid 1st is too high of a price for swaping the same amount of money and relatively close talent
- Washington in a desperate attempt to not upset Beal this season could try to bring Dragic in for a combination of Mahinmi and 1 or 2 other contracts(might have to be a bigger package). I get RIley wants Beal but an asset to use in a near future trade.
I don't see it
- Dallas, packages built around Hardaway or after Dec 15th like C.Lee and someone(s) elese for Dragic.
That is posible in theory, but I'm not sure Riley will have any business with Dallas after this summer
- Minnesota would love to get rid of Dieng a year early(in a small package) but they'd push the #1 pick off for a few(maybe 3-4) years and it might make a lot of sense if Minnesota goes after D.Lo and havin a guy like Dragic(even in a 3 team trade) would help keep GS's rotation strong this year and possibly the next few years(if they resign him).
If GSW would want a guard, Minny could just throw in Teague
- Portland, if A.Simons doesn't do as well as they'd like and they don't need Bazemore, could do a Bazemore/Dragic swap throwing in a 1st to really strengthen their roster and of course they may make A.Simons available in a trade package with Whiteside(once Nurkic is back and fine) for K.Love. For Portland they have a path to have a strong 8 man rotation of starting Lillard, CJ, Hood/Hezonja, Love, Nurkic with Dragic, Z.Collins and one of Hood/Hezonja coming off the bench.
not sure that trading the only theoretical wing defender for another guard is a good idea

1. Mil - Have you seen what Bledsoe does in the playoffs? At this point, they need to keep Giannis happy.
2. Det - Might be too high, might not.
3. Wash - You never know what Washington might do to keep their best player happy.
4. Dal- At this point in his life, I doubt Riley won't do a trade to strengthen his own team just because of a possible grudge.
5. GS- Jeff Teague isn't the shooter/scorer that Dragic is, Dragic is a much better fit for GS.
6. Portland has some wing depth(especially if they have 3 possible 20ppg scorers in the backcourt).

[AirP.]

It's not impressive by itself but add in assists, 3s and PPG and it is. For example, Kemba Walker is considered a star yet his TS% was only 55.8% last season.

Is he? He's a fringe all-star, not good on defense and led the Hornets to 2 .500 or higher seasons in 8 years.

Kemba Walker right now would give us a chance at the #1 seed in the East.

Your faith in a perennial sub .500 leader is strong. I'm not keen on players who are ortg is lower than their drtg which Kemba was last year.

By the way, he'd give Miami 0 chance at being #1 in the east. Even if Miami gets CP3(who is a better overall player) they're not getting the #1 seed in the east but at least they'd be very deadly in the playoffs with CP3 running the offense and Butler being strong in the clutch.

[Hallstar]

Is he? He's a fringe all-star, not good on defense and led the Hornets to 2 .500 or higher seasons in 8 years.

Kemba Walker right now would give us a chance at the #1 seed in the East.

Your faith in a perennial sub .500 leader is strong. I'm not keen on players who are ortg is lower than their drtg which Kemba was last year.

By the way, he'd give Miami 0 chance at being #1 in the east. Even if Miami gets CP3(who is a better overall player) they're not getting the #1 seed in the east but at least they'd be very deadly in the playoffs with CP3 running the offense and Butler being strong in the clutch.

lol, no he's not

[AirP.]

Kemba Walker right now would give us a chance at the #1 seed in the East.

Your faith in a perennial sub .500 leader is strong. I'm not keen on players who are ortg is lower than their drtg which Kemba was last year.

By the way, he'd give Miami 0 chance at being #1 in the east. Even if Miami gets CP3(who is a better overall player) they're not getting the #1 seed in the east but at least they'd be very deadly in the playoffs with CP3 running the offense and Butler being strong in the clutch.

lol, no he's not

CP3 is by far a superior overall player(maybe not a better scorer and possibly not in value vs contract).
Last year ORTG - DRTG (Dean Oliver's calculations which are on bbref)
Walker 112 ORTG, 114 DRTG -2 overall.
CP3 118 ORTG, 109 DRTG +9 overall.

Plus, when Harden didn't play (where CP3 was the main option) CP3 stats were MUCH higher last year (all playoff teams).
The 4 games CP3 played without Harden last season..

12 pts, 8 ast, 6 reb - solid game, low scoring (LAC)
17 pts, 9 ast, 5 reb - good game (POR)
32 pts, 11 ast, 7 reb - great game (BRK)
23 pts, 17 ast, 5 reb - great game (GS)

Toss in defense and it's really not close.

Very good to great players (heavy minute players, not role players) usually stand out when you look at their ortg-drtg, Butler in his last season in Chicago was +17 while D.Wade was -3 and Rondo was -7. Mirotic was probably the 2nd best player(although hurt) at +2.

[Kobewade11]

lol @ Kemba Walker leading anybody to a 1 seed

[Feel_the_Heat15]

lol @ Kemba Walker leading anybody to a 1 seed

If we added a clone of Kemba without losing anyone, who's better than us in the East? Arguably only the Bucks and 76ers. Also, Kemba wouldn't lead us to the #1 seed since this would be a team that's not just good because of 1 player but good because of multiple players. This team would be the one of the least turnover prone teams in the NBA with a back-court of Kemba and Butler.

[Feel_the_Heat15]

Is he? He's a fringe all-star, not good on defense and led the Hornets to 2 .500 or higher seasons in 8 years.

Kemba Walker right now would give us a chance at the #1 seed in the East.

Your faith in a perennial sub .500 leader is strong. I'm not keen on players who are ortg is lower than their drtg which Kemba was last year.

By the way, he'd give Miami 0 chance at being #1 in the east. Even if Miami gets CP3(who is a better overall player) they're not getting the #1 seed in the east but at least they'd be very deadly in the playoffs with CP3 running the offense and Butler being strong in the clutch.

Offensive rating and defensive rating are terrible advanced stats. Without Walker the Hornets are 6.5 points per 100 possessions worse.

If Adebayo took another leap and we had a backcourt of Walker+Butler we'd definitely have a chance at the #1 seed. We'd arguably have the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best players between the 2 teams(the Bucks) in a playoff game series.

[AirP.]

lol @ Kemba Walker leading anybody to a 1 seed

If we added a clone of Kemba without losing anyone, who's better than us in the East? Arguably only the Bucks and 76ers. Also, Kemba wouldn't lead us to the #1 seed since this would be a team that's not just good because of 1 player but good because of multiple players. This team would be the one of the least turnover prone teams in the NBA with a back-court of Kemba and Butler.

Unless you still believe defense matters. Does the upgrade at PG make the team that much better on offense to cover up the drop in defense?

It's really simple with a Butler based team(Butler's not gifted enough to score effortless most of the game/carry a team each night but able to put in the effort/work to score at crunchtime), have decent offensive players around him with good to great defense and you have the ability to beat anyone in a 7 game series(although you may not be favored). Last year Butler was the top option in most of the playoff games for Philly and even with a sick/ineffective Embiid on offense, were almost good enough to be the eventual champs. Embiid actually had a 5 FG of 18 FGA game and 2 2-7 games in that 7 game series and still almost won with Butler being their #1. Had Philly had a backup defensive option behind Embiid at center they probably win that series. It's why I worry about who plays center when Bam isn't in the game.

[AirP.]

Kemba Walker right now would give us a chance at the #1 seed in the East.

Your faith in a perennial sub .500 leader is strong. I'm not keen on players who are ortg is lower than their drtg which Kemba was last year.

By the way, he'd give Miami 0 chance at being #1 in the east. Even if Miami gets CP3(who is a better overall player) they're not getting the #1 seed in the east but at least they'd be very deadly in the playoffs with CP3 running the offense and Butler being strong in the clutch.

Offensive rating and defensive rating are terrible advanced stats. Without Walker the Hornets are 6.5 points per 100 possessions worse.

If Adebayo took another leap and we had a backcourt of Walker+Butler we'd definitely have a chance at the #1 seed. We'd arguably have the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best players between the 2 teams(the Bucks) in a playoff game series.

The offensive/defensive ratings are great advanced stats on basketball-reference.com if you understand the player's roles(main options, role/specialized players), they are not the same stats on NBA.com which are horrible indicators on that site because players get more credit for what other players do while on the court together. Nearly all of the time the players people who agree on being good show up well in those ratings and those who are bad show up as being bad in those ratings.

[Bishop45]

Duncan could get some nice rotation mins if Herro/KZ isn't ready, prolly won't help bench defense much, but we'll c

[MartyCONLONNN]

Duncan is an NBA ready floor spacer. Love the idea of him getting spot minutes at the 4. I see him thriving in lineups where KO can't keep up with the small ball 4s. Credit to him too, as he drastically transformed his body in one season.

Hope it translates to some success for him on the court.

[Beenie]

Bam Adebayo 1 on 1 vs Takeru Kobayashi

Watch on YouTube

[Feel_the_Heat15]

Your faith in a perennial sub .500 leader is strong. I'm not keen on players who are ortg is lower than their drtg which Kemba was last year.

By the way, he'd give Miami 0 chance at being #1 in the east. Even if Miami gets CP3(who is a better overall player) they're not getting the #1 seed in the east but at least they'd be very deadly in the playoffs with CP3 running the offense and Butler being strong in the clutch.

Offensive rating and defensive rating are terrible advanced stats. Without Walker the Hornets are 6.5 points per 100 possessions worse.

If Adebayo took another leap and we had a backcourt of Walker+Butler we'd definitely have a chance at the #1 seed. We'd arguably have the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best players between the 2 teams(the Bucks) in a playoff game series.

The offensive/defensive ratings are great advanced stats on basketball-reference.com if you understand the player's roles(main options, role/specialized players), they are not the same stats on NBA.com which are horrible indicators on that site because players get more credit for what other players do while on the court together. Nearly all of the time the players people who agree on being good show up well in those ratings and those who are bad show up as being bad in those ratings.

How do you know that Kemba's ratings are accurate? He was the Hornets' best player so aren't those numbers "untrue"? Do you really think that those numbers accurately portray Kemba as a player?

[Atm365]

Duncan could get some nice rotation mins if Herro/KZ isn't ready, prolly won't help bench defense much, but we'll c

He’s actually ok as a defender lol

[AirP.]

Offensive rating and defensive rating are terrible advanced stats. Without Walker the Hornets are 6.5 points per 100 possessions worse.

If Adebayo took another leap and we had a backcourt of Walker+Butler we'd definitely have a chance at the #1 seed. We'd arguably have the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best players between the 2 teams(the Bucks) in a playoff game series.

The offensive/defensive ratings are great advanced stats on basketball-reference.com if you understand the player's roles(main options, role/specialized players), they are not the same stats on NBA.com which are horrible indicators on that site because players get more credit for what other players do while on the court together. Nearly all of the time the players people who agree on being good show up well in those ratings and those who are bad show up as being bad in those ratings.

How do you know that Kemba's ratings are accurate? He was the Hornets' best player so aren't those numbers "untrue"? Do you really think that those numbers accurately portray Kemba as a player?

Accurate? They are his stats and the team's stats while he's on the court that are utilized, with him being a main player on that team he was in many more diverse situations then a roleplayer(hence the reason I differentiate between the roles). No it's not a perfect rating(there really isn't one) but it seems to be a good/great indicator of how a player's use translates to a teams offense/defense.

Yes, I think they're accurate for Kemba. A high volume shooter who scored a lot with just a little over average efficiency. There is a skill to get off that many decent looks, but it doesn't mean you'll make a good team better, especially with his size which creates limitations on the defensive end. I get there's no perfect stat to equate how good or bad a player is, but they can give good indications on players. If you want to see the formula for Dean Oliver's ratings that BBRef uses, go here... https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

I like Kemba, he works and supports his younger teammates and that should make him a great fit personality wise for the team and we've also seen Brad Stephens able to hide I.Thomas on defense but it still hurt the team defensively, Thomas was only +10 with a 120 ORTG(very good) and 112 DRTG which was nearly 4-5 points higher than most of the Celtic's rotation that year. Man... Boston with Kemba and Kanter both starting for them is going to be good on offense but will probably be very ugly on defense.

[MadD23]

The offensive/defensive ratings are great advanced stats on basketball-reference.com if you understand the player's roles(main options, role/specialized players), they are not the same stats on NBA.com which are horrible indicators on that site because players get more credit for what other players do while on the court together. Nearly all of the time the players people who agree on being good show up well in those ratings and those who are bad show up as being bad in those ratings.

How do you know that Kemba's ratings are accurate? He was the Hornets' best player so aren't those numbers "untrue"? Do you really think that those numbers accurately portray Kemba as a player?

Accurate? They are his stats and the team's stats while he's on the court that are utilized, with him being a main player on that team he was in many more diverse situations then a roleplayer(hence the reason I differentiate between the roles). No it's not a perfect rating(there really isn't one) but it seems to be a good/great indicator of how a player's use translates to a teams offense/defense.

Yes, I think they're accurate for Kemba. A high volume shooter who scored a lot with just a little over average efficiency. There is a skill to get off that many decent looks, but it doesn't mean you'll make a good team better, especially with his size which creates limitations on the defensive end. I get there's no perfect stat to equate how good or bad a player is, but they can give good indications on players. If you want to see the formula for Dean Oliver's ratings that BBRef uses, go here... https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

I like Kemba, he works and supports his younger teammates and that should make him a great fit personality wise for the team and we've also seen Brad Stephens able to hide I.Thomas on defense but it still hurt the team defensively, Thomas was only +10 with a 120 ORTG(very good) and 112 DRTG which was nearly 4-5 points higher than most of the Celtic's rotation that year. Man... Boston with Kemba and Kanter both starting for them is going to be good on offense but will probably be very ugly on defense.

I understand stats and ratings are useful, but I also believe it depends also on the current situation of each individual player. Kemba played for a bad team and had to force the issue a lot for his team to have a shot at winning. His current efficiency numbers have a lot to do with that. With a better team and even a better system, playing with another star player that also commands a lot of attention from Defenders and teams not being able to game plan to mainly stopping him from scoring, his efficiency would go up.

Kemba in Miami with JB could be a complete different player. And his defense could be hidden playing with the right system. JB, JW, DJJ and Bam will be the heart of the Heat D next season, it'll depend mainly on Spo to use the right combinations of players with his rotations to maintain the level of Defense needed to complement the deficiencies of Walker in that area.