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Wiltside wrote:Bam knows the drill. His agent knows the drill. His agent is Giannis' agent.

Bam isn't going anywhere.

This fella knows what's what. He's got us adding Anthony Davis and Nico Mannion, and winning the chip next year, lol.

Great to have Miami Heat basketball back. I know we are all enjoying the games but I wanted to throw something out there for everyone’s thoughts. In building our future team let’s say Oladipo and Giannis either resign with their current teams or sign elsewhere. What would everyone’s fallback options be? Some say trade the young guys and future picks for Mitchell or Beal. I am thinking what if the Heat take their cap space in 2021 and sign Derozan and Gallinari. In this plan we keep the young guys and build a contender that fits Jimmy’s timeline. Imagine running a lineup out there of:

Bam
Gallo
Robinson
Derozan
Butler

Bench

Nunn
Herro
Olynk
Crowder/Jones
KZ
Draft pick 2020
Etc

To me that team is a clear contender. You have the floor spacing for Bam, Derozan and Butler in Gallo and Robinson along with Herro and Olynk off the bench. You might have to choose between Nunn and Dragic after next season. What is everyone’s thoughts?


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It's a solid team Franchize, but it isn't how I would want to spend that cap space. Personally not sold on the fit, and question marks around the durability of someone like Gallo longer term for the monetary commitment it would take. Has missed a lot of games. Not sold on how Butler/DeRozan fit together either, despite the fact you mention Robinson and Gallo as the floor spacers and DeMar and Jimmy as the shot creators and FT line bucket getters.

For me, assuming we swung and missed on Giannis and the other big names re-up in LA (Kawhi, Lebron, PG)...I'd probably go with DoM and make a big push for Rudy Gobert. The potential defense with Gobert, Adebayo and Butler would be beautiful, and you can surround them with Herro and Robinson as the shooting they need, along with shooters off the bench.

How much cap would we be projected to have outside of a max slot? Can we sign a max and anyone else and then extend Bam and DRob?

I don't hate the idea of getting Blake Griffin for cheap in a 6th man type role either, to preserve his body and take advantage of 2nd units. He could be really good in that capacity...but I'd want him to show me something next season. This one was a write off.

ThaFranchize84 wrote:Great to have Miami Heat basketball back. I know we are all enjoying the games but I wanted to throw something out there for everyone’s thoughts. In building our future team let’s say Oladipo and Giannis either resign with their current teams or sign elsewhere. What would everyone’s fallback options be? Some say trade the young guys and future picks for Mitchell or Beal. I am thinking what if the Heat take their cap space in 2021 and sign Derozan and Gallinari. In this plan we keep the young guys and build a contender that fits Jimmy’s timeline. Imagine running a lineup out there of:

Bam
Gallo
Robinson
Derozan
Butler

Bench

Nunn
Herro
Olynk
Crowder/Jones
KZ
Draft pick 2020
Etc

To me that team is a clear contender. You have the floor spacing for Bam, Derozan and Butler in Gallo and Robinson along with Herro and Olynk off the bench. You might have to choose between Nunn and Dragic after next season. What is everyone’s thoughts?


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I can't imagine a Derozan/Butler pairing being pretty. The spacing would suffer, even if you were to surround them with 2 outstanding shooters.

If we could get Debo for cheap, I'm all for it. I would not commit large amounts of money for him at this point, however. Don't get me wrong though, Derozan is still a great player and is probably good enough to be the beta to a true transcendental stars' alpha, but Jimmy Butler just isn't that 5 star alpha, unfortunately.

I just think if you strike out on the top guys I think you could do a lot worse at splitting $35 million between Gallo and Derozan. I think Derozan would probably take a deal around $20 million per over 3 years and then you sign Gallo to a 3 year deal at $15-18 per year. With this strategy you keep Herro and Nunn and your future picks to keep adding in youth to this roster with the vets. I also feel like Bam is going to continue expanding his range. Just my thoughts.


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Thunder hooking us up tonight. Pile up those Lakers losses. Davis will come running to us.

Pass on DD and Gallinari. There is too much overlap on the offense with DD and Butler. Duncan and Gallinari also have similar games, but Duncan doesn't have the injury history and has improved his defense. In any case, playing the two together would expose their defensive vulnerability.

Unless Anthony Davis becomes available I can't see a big move at this time that would make us much better. Beal or Oladipo would help but the price tag will be more than we would want to pay. Waiting for Giannis is a better idea. Butler/Bam/Davis though... that would be nice.

My predictions:

(0) Anthony Davis resigns with the Lakers. Oh well.
(1) Miami resigns Crowder. Good fit for player and team and deserves a deal.
(2) Miami makes an offer to Derrick Jones Jr, but if another team (Brooklyn) overpays him, Miami thinks long and hard before overpaying as we did with TJ. DJJ is worth a mid-level exception, but I don't see him as a starter. An extended contract is fine because he will likely be a tradable asset if salary is MLE.
(3) Miami resigns Dragic if possible for 1 season. Again don't break the bank.
(4) Meyers will also likely get an offer but Miami will be outbid. We should not break the bank.
(5) If we trade for Oladipo or Beal it will be at the trade deadline in 2021.

Strategy: Accumulate cap space for a 2021 move.

I am excited about the team. Bam and Butler are great together. I am a fan of Herro and Nunn (I am, sorry). Duncan has been great. I expect to see KZ Okpala and Gabe Vincent to get plenty of love. I know Gabe Vincent hasn't shown much yet, but I would never bet against Heat development team. I predict Vincent will be signed for mini-mle (like Duncan's deal) and show us a lot next season. Remember: We have no draft pick next season.

Would attempt to max out our role players on one year contracts (not max salaries, but max money for their value). Jae Crowder is a stud for this team. DJJ flashes high level role player ability. I'm curious to how the team views them and their contributions.

Crowder has flashed serious offensive ability since becoming a Heat. Offensive rating of 128...! He's basically neck and neck with Duncan as our 4th horseman since he got here.

Also bears mentioning that Jae is earning $7.8 million this year, which is the most he's ever made. Winslow on the other hand is making $13 million per. That's crazy to think about.

This leads me to believe that Crowder will go somewhere else for a nice payday. It's likely his last chance. Some team will be willing to pay him a $10 million per, multi-year deal. Might as well start an appreciation thread now.

DayofMourning wrote:Might as well start an appreciation thread now.

Nah, lets wait until after the championship parade. Just has a a better ring to it.

My main concern is, we can't just run this thing exactly back and expect that we'll magically take another leap. Internal improvement is not guaranteed, and honestly, we've plateaued since our hot start to the szn.

Brooklyn will be better next year with KD and Kyrie back. Bucks will still be there. Same can be said for Toronto, Boston, Philly and Indiana.

I will say this about Crowder though, he has fit like a glove here. Maybe it's the Marquette connection, I dunno, but he's been lights out since he joined us. His splits are pretty insane:

With Memphis (45 games): 9.9ppg, 6.2rpg, 2.8apg, 1.0spg, 0.3bpg, 1.2tpg, 29.4mpg, 36.8%fg (3.3/8.9), 29.3% 3fg (1.7/5.9) and 78.9%ft (1.7/2.1)
With Miami (19 games): 12.3ppg, 5.6rpg, 1.9apg, 1.3spg, 0.5bpg, 0.8tpg, 28.7mpg, 48.8%fg (4.1/8.4), 45.2% 3fg (2.9/6.5) and 73.3%ft (1.2/1.6)

His eFG% jumped from 46.6% to 66.3% in our system. He's been fantastic, everything we could've asked for from a 3&D wing. Hopefully given he has been a journeyman and is having a career renaissance, he's keen to stick around and will do the team friendly thing this offszn...but as others have said, last chance of a payday may price him out of our range. We'll need to hope we can resuscitate similar 3&D options at bargain basement prices if that's the case.

Some non-sexy veteran names that could potentially be keen on a 1yr deal:

- Tristan Thompson; the universe may split in two if Bam and TT started in the same frontcourt, but it could happen. TT started to actually flash some range at the back end of this year. If that's something that becomes legit, he could be a useful rotation piece. Averaged 12 and 10 this year for a chitty Cavs team.

- Aron Baynes; now this would be nice. Not just as the resident Aussie homer, but Baynes turned himself into a legit shooter this year. Averaged 1.4 treys per game on 35%, and career highs of 11.5ppg and 5.6rpg in 22mins per. At 33 years old, unlikely to attract significant money on a long term deal, so could be a perfect fit next to Bam next year. Would love this signing on a 1yr deal, or 2 if it was a team option with a long guarantee date.

- Robin Lopez; I suppose somewhat similar to the guys above. Has always been a good interior defender, but with Milwaukee has started to shoot the 3 ball with some success (0.5 per on 1.6 attempts in 15mins). Has always been a solid shot blocker and capable rotation big, and could be had for cheap this offszn too.

The younger guys with some potential that could potentially be keen on a 1yr deal:

- Harry Giles; fundamentally sound player. I like his game, he's not flashy but he is effective. Not sure why the Kings didn't pick up his option, they're a dumb franchise. Would be worth a look.

- Skal Labissiere; Another Kings discard. Has showed flashes but nothing consistent. Still only 24 and in theory, has that stretch big potential.

- Josh Jackson; looks to be back on track after flaming out in PHX. Still wild and very raw, and I worry about whether he could handle South Beach, but I did like him in his draft year. Would like to see how he would play in our offense.

- Thon Maker; stretch big potential. Still super raw, not sure if he's gonna make it, but if he ever was it'd be with our development staff.

- Noah Vonleh; was actually pretty good for the Knicks in 18-19 before signing with Minnesota and being sparingly used. Now in Denver following the trade, isn't seeing action behind their plethora of bigs. Solid all around skillset. Still only 24 but has been around forever it feels.

Wiltside wrote:Some non-sexy veteran names that could potentially be keen on a 1yr deal:

- Tristan Thompson; the universe may split in two if Bam and TT started in the same frontcourt, but it could happen. TT started to actually flash some range at the back end of this year. If that's something that becomes legit, he could be a useful rotation piece. Averaged 12 and 10 this year for a chitty Cavs team.

- Aron Baynes; now this would be nice. Not just as the resident Aussie homer, but Baynes turned himself into a legit shooter this year. Averaged 1.4 treys per game on 35%, and career highs of 11.5ppg and 5.6rpg in 22mins per. At 33 years old, unlikely to attract significant money on a long term deal, so could be a perfect fit next to Bam next year. Would love this signing on a 1yr deal, or 2 if it was a team option with a long guarantee date.

Spoiler:

- Robin Lopez; I suppose somewhat similar to the guys above. Has always been a good interior defender, but with Milwaukee has started to shoot the 3 ball with some success (0.5 per on 1.6 attempts in 15mins). Has always been a solid shot blocker and capable rotation big, and could be had for cheap this offszn too.

The younger guys with some potential that could potentially be keen on a 1yr deal:

- Harry Giles; fundamentally sound player. I like his game, he's not flashy but he is effective. Not sure why the Kings didn't pick up his option, they're a dumb franchise. Would be worth a look.

- Skal Labissiere; Another Kings discard. Has showed flashes but nothing consistent. Still only 24 and in theory, has that stretch big potential.

- Josh Jackson; looks to be back on track after flaming out in PHX. Still wild and very raw, and I worry about whether he could handle South Beach, but I did like him in his draft year. Would like to see how he would play in our offense.

- Thon Maker; stretch big potential. Still super raw, not sure if he's gonna make it, but if he ever was it'd be with our development staff.

- Noah Vonleh; was actually pretty good for the Knicks in 18-19 before signing with Minnesota and being sparingly used. Now in Denver following the trade, isn't seeing action behind their plethora of bigs. Solid all around skillset. Still only 24 but has been around forever it feels.

We have to make some tough decisions this offseason. I think it goes without saying we renounce and let walk Leonard, Hill and likely move Haslam to the coaching staff or something.

Then after that if we want to have any considerable cap space for next season we need to make a decision between two of Crowder, Dragic and Olynyk.

If we renounce all 3 we have $40mil cap space
If we renounce Dragic and Olynyk we have $26.8mil cap space
If we renounce Crowder and Dragic we have $22.7mil cap space

To me we should try to sign Crowder to a long term MLE deal of $9.9mil or max a 4yr 12mil deal and Dragic to a 1&1 deal of something like $13mil, leaving us with roughly $19mil for another free agent or two to add to the roster. If Crowder gets a long term deal any more than $13mil then we can't afford a max deal in 2021 without trading him.

Then in any circumstance we should sign DJJr over the cap because of his low cap hold and we will easily be able to move him if its a good value contract, I'm thinking between $7-8mil.

With the other 19mil I'd try see what a 35yo Millsap and Bayne's is worth and possibly bring them both in.

Nunn/Dragic/Vincent
Butler/Herro/2020 FRP
Robinson/Iggy/DJJr
Crowder/Millsap/Okpala
Bam/Baynes/Silva

Wiltside wrote:My main concern is, we can't just run this thing exactly back and expect that we'll magically take another leap. Internal improvement is not guaranteed, and honestly, we've plateaued since our hot start to the szn.

Brooklyn will be better next year with KD and Kyrie back. Bucks will still be there. Same can be said for Toronto, Boston, Philly and Indiana.

I will say this about Crowder though, he has fit like a glove here. Maybe it's the Marquette connection, I dunno, but he's been lights out since he joined us. His splits are pretty insane:

With Memphis (45 games): 9.9ppg, 6.2rpg, 2.8apg, 1.0spg, 0.3bpg, 1.2tpg, 29.4mpg, 36.8%fg (3.3/8.9), 29.3% 3fg (1.7/5.9) and 78.9%ft (1.7/2.1)
With Miami (19 games): 12.3ppg, 5.6rpg, 1.9apg, 1.3spg, 0.5bpg, 0.8tpg, 28.7mpg, 48.8%fg (4.1/8.4), 45.2% 3fg (2.9/6.5) and 73.3%ft (1.2/1.6)

His eFG% jumped from 46.6% to 66.3% in our system. He's been fantastic, everything we could've asked for from a 3&D wing. Hopefully given he has been a journeyman and is having a career renaissance, he's keen to stick around and will do the team friendly thing this offszn...but as others have said, last chance of a payday may price him out of our range. We'll need to hope we can resuscitate similar 3&D options at bargain basement prices if that's the case.

Very interesting. I think one explanation is that he needed to try to do more in Memphis in a less structured offense with less reliable options around him. That's partially evidenced by his less efficient scoring and greater assist and turnover numbers in Memphis. He has thrived in a smart defined offensive system where he knows his role and can fully focus on playing effectively within it.

The fact that he hasn't had a real payday definitely concerns me. Doesn't bode well for him working with us to stay

Heat needs to get healthy for the playoffs. They need Nunn and the rest of the 9 man rotation to be healthy. They have not reach the chemistry as of yet that they had the first half of the year. Might be best to monitor the players minutes the last game regardless of a win or lose. I hope and concern about Nunn health. I understand he has tested negative for the virus, but that does not mean his complications or illness is not related the having the virus. Might be best to give Nunn a week of rest and evaluation.

twix2500 wrote:Heat needs to get healthy for the playoffs. They need Nunn and the rest of the 9 man rotation to be healthy. They have not reach the chemistry as of yet that they had the first half of the year. Might be best to monitor the players minutes the last game regardless of a win or lose. I hope and concern about Nunn health. I understand he has tested negative for the virus, but that does not mean his complications or illness is not related the having the virus. Might be best to give Nunn a week of rest and evaluation.

I think we are basically there. Dragic, Herro and Robinson are playing at a high level, Crowder is confident and hitting at a high percentage. Kelly has been a lot better in the bubble. Jimmy I feel still has another level which you saw in the Pacers game. Bam's been a little inconsistent and not to his normal standard but I think he will switch on once the games start meaning more. One thing I hadn't considered about Bam's game could be the lack of crowd and feeding off of that energy might be what he's missing.

Nunn's the only one with real concerns right now. According to the Beat guys Nunn's issues have been related to stuff off the court which is why he left the bubble to take care of it. So hopefully he comes back more switched on. I can see him playing quite a bit in the last game to shoot himself into some kind of a rhythm and get his confidence back up.

1st round playoff schedule

God dammit, all these early af games gonna cramp my style (and sleep schedule)