AirP. wrote:twix2500 wrote:AirP. wrote:Yes I've listened to all their podcasts together since last year, even the ones where Reddick was part of The Ringer which he's no longer with.
It's just simple math of points per possession that you make vs what you give up with the 3 ball being one of the strongest variables in that calculation, both making and giving up but 3s are not the only variable in that equation. When I watch Robinson give up easy 2s or foul for FTs that raises the opponents points per possession greatly with the % they're making because of his bad defense.
Yes, 26 year old single dimension Duncan is expanding his game. If he were 22-23 this would be a different conversation about his development but it's not. Although he can get somewhat better, all he really has is his 3pt shooting and his height, he's not really athletic enough to add many counters that will be effective.
Once again, give me a good defender who can shoot 3s at the league average % or higher and Miami will be a better/more consistent team. Miami already has 2 great defenders in the starting lineup who are good offensive players too, why not put 2 way players around them and get the benefit on both sides.
It all depends on the make up of the team and the system. This system with Bam and Butler, there is a need for at least one elite high volume 3 point shooter with them. Will it be better if Duncan was a good defender? Sure. But a decent 3 point shooter and defender is not a better replacement. Do we need to add a 3D player, yes. But not to replace Duncan. In addition too Duncan.
Do not forget, Heat still have a significant piece to return and thats Bradley. When he was getting close to game shape, Bradley 3 pt shot and defense was excelling.
Does Miami need an elite 3pt shooter sure but I'm not sure Duncan is dynamic enough to get as many good looks as he did last year since teams understand how to defend him. Just looking at his shooting profile, if a team can limit his catch and shoot shots, his 3pt% drops a good amount. Robinson just taking 1 dribble before shooting drops his 3pt% by 10% which turns him into a below league average 3pt shooter.
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629130/shots-dash/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629130/shots-dash/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season
Looking at Bam and combos on the court...
Olynyk +5.2
Dragic +4.3
Bradley +4.0
Iggy +2.7
Butler +2.0
Nunn +0.4
Vincent -0.4
Robinson -.5 points per 100 possessions
Last year Bam and Robinson were +8.7 I would suspect the DHOs that are being defended differently this year are a major reason why his 3pt% is lower.
With Butler it's a different, Butler is finding players in catch and shoot situations more often.
Precious +17.5 (153 minutes)
Olynyk +12.7
Dragic +10.6
Nunn +8.4
Robinson +7.5
If you're playing through Butler you need guys who an catch and shoot which Robinson is great at, the issue is his defense which really hurts the Heat. If he's not helping Miami score efficiently he's hurting the team because of his lack of defense.
Very interesting numbers. Thanks for sharing
