Miami, one game under 0.500, have won seven of the last ten and have begun to look again like the Bubble Heat we all saw last season. The Heat have two games at home and a road game against the Pelicans before the All-Star Break. The Heat will finish the 3-game series with the Hawks on April 23. By then, it is likely Atlanta will also be competing for a spot among the postseason teams.
The Hawks started the season by winning four of the firt five games, looking like the front office actions in the off-season had made a difference, and though Atlanta did have a good end to January, the Hawks have not finished above 0.5000 since 2016-2017 season.
Miami has a historical record of 69-54 against the Hawks in the regular season. The postseason record is 5-7. The Heat have lost both postseason series, in 1994 and 2009. The record at home is 43-18 in favor of the Heat (26-36 in Atlanta).
Though Atlanta’s record is not great, keep in mind they have great recent wins against both the Celtics and Nuggets. In order to beat the Hawks, MIami will require a full effort for 48 minutes, especially on defense because otherwise players like Young can kill you.
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The Atlanta Hawks compared to the Miami Heat:
Atlanta injuries: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, and De’Andre Hunter are all likely out. Cam Reddish also has soreness in his right achilles. Dunn is set to be reevaluated.
Miami injuries: Avery Bradley and Tyler Herro were both out against the Jazz. Meyers Leonard is out for the season after shoulder surgery. Chris Silva is back.
Points: The Hawks make 113.7 per game. 13th best in the league. Opponents score 113.1 ppg (22nd in the league).
Miami make 107.2 per game, 5th worst in the league. Oppoents score only 109.4 ppg (6th best in the league), a stingy defense by all accounts.
Pace: (similar)
The Hawks operate at 98.7 (21st in the league), about like the Jazz we just faced.
Miami is 98.3 (23rd in the league)
Shooting: (stats are per game)
The Hawks are 18th in the league in 3 points made (12.5) and 3 points attempted (34.3). Their 3 pt pct is 17th in the league at 36.4%. Truly unimpressive but better than the Heat. They lead the league in free throws: 21.5 for 26.2, 82.1%, which i excellent. The Hawks are very good at stopping 3 pt shooting, 34.8% (4th in the league), and keep their opponents at only 11.7 per game.
Miami are about average in 3 points made (15th with 13.0), shoot 36.7 per game (10th in the league), for 21st in the league (35.5%). Truly mediocre. Miami also doesn’t make many 2’s either, 27th in the league with 25.5 for 29th in the league attempts, 46.6. Miami is better than the Hawks at the charity stripe, 10th in the league 17.2 makes in 21.7 attempts (that’s 16th, average), but at a very nice 79% (Butler and Bam say Hello!) The eFG has no surprise, very average both for defense and offense. Miami’s offensive rating 108 compares with its defense rating 110.2.
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Rebounding:
The Hawks are excellent at rebounding, 7th in the league, but only 18th in defensive rebounds. The are 3rd in offensive rebounds, 11.1, so Bam will face a tough chalenge.
The Heat are poor rebounders, especially offensive boards (30th in the league), truly pathetic at 7.4 per game. That’s an 18.1% ORB percentage, which ranks 28th in the league. We are better at defensive rebounds, but one reason that ranks higher is that we give up so many wide open shots.
Assists/Turnovers:
The Hawks rank 18th in assists, 24.4 per game. They are 16th in turnovers, with 14.2, eminently average.
Miami ranks 1th in assists, which is a real plus, at 26.1 per game. This is one area where the Heat are definitely better than the Hawks. Unfortunately, we also have 16.1 turnovers per game, 16.1, which is worst in the league.
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The Hawks are led by Trae Young, an all-star who averages 27.2 ppg and 9.5 ast (4.3 tov). He makes a lot of free throw attempts (over 10 per game), shoots them at a good clip, and also shoots 3's at 37.5%. Huerter and Collins are shooting above league average from behind the arc too. Their elite 3 pt shooter is Danilo Gallinari, a player we know well.
Clint Capela is an excellent rebounder. Capela also gets more than 2 blocks per game. Collins gets one per game.
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