We've fought hard to get out of the hole. A win on Tuesday night will guarantee at least a 0.500 record halfway home. Let's get it, everyone!
The Miami Heat, the owner of the longest current win streak in the NBA, occupy 5th place in the Eastern Conference. If the season ended today, the Heat would play the New York Knicks without home court advantage. Miami and New York are both 7-3 over the last ten games, but Miami has the advantage in head-to-head competition should the two teams finish with the same record. There are actually 7 teams that have 17 losses in the east, so we see how incredibly close it is. As such, it’s good practice to keep winning, especially against eastern conference teams who will compete for playoff position.
Atlanta, incidentally, is 3-7 over their last ten games, so there is a definite contrast with the Heat, but we all saw how good they are, especially Capela & Collins in the front court. And we were lucky Trae Young didn’t have a big night against us. We’ll take wins anyway they come though.
Miami has a historical record of 70-54 against the Hawks in the regular season. The postseason record is 5-7. The Heat have lost both postseason series, in 1994 and 2009. The record at home is 44-18 in favor of the Heat (26-36 in Atlanta).
Now that both teams have seen each other, we should expect adjustments. Spo has been very good about playing better the second time. After losing to Milwaukee by 47 points on 12/29/2020, Miami beat them by 11 the next night. They won their second games against Detroit and Washington too. They did lose their second games to Brooklyn and Toronto and both games against the 76ers, but the entire team was discombobulated and in the midst of a long streak of losses.
I think it is also instructional to study our recent performance. I have compiled the data for February 2021, from the overtime loss to the Charlotte Hornets to last night's game.
Sorted by plus/minus:
No real surprises here. Starters are playing well, bench not so much. Herro needs to be more of a difference maker, but he had some poor games in February that dragged him down.
Sorted by points made:
No real surprises here either. Butler and Bam and Nunn lead the team. Herro's contribution is good, but he is negative on the court (which is not necessarily his fault.)
Sorted by 3 point pct:
Nunn's impact is clear here. He is making as many 3's as Duncan Robinson per game and at a higher percentage. Strus & Herro are also shooting 3's well. And even Iggy's rate is increasing. Also, it's clear that Kelly Olynyk's 3 point shooting is dragging the team down. Last season he shot very well from beyond the arc.
And then of course there is Bam Adebayo!
We already know the Hawks have an incredible front court with Capela & John Collins. They have good shooting as well in the backcourt.
Again, I have compiled the February data (a tough time for the Hawks) so we can evaluate the recent relative player impact.
Sorted by points made:
Sorted by 3 pt percentage:
And, showing the guard capability. Check out these assists per game stats:
Plan:
We must shoot better from range. We were pathetic.
Dominate the paint better than last night's game. Capela is so good though.
Need to contain Collins better too.
Keep defending on the perimeter.
Play 48 minutes.
Jimmy's gotta get to the free throw line. If Jimmy isn't playing, Bam needs to do it more.
Miami will need to combat better in the front court or Capela & Collins will make our life miserable. Also, clearly Trae Young's point scoring is higher than we had last night. Whatever we did to control him, we must do again, and probably more.
Bam Bam!
Famous 
