Here are the scenarios (rounded up or down to half mils):
SHAQ DOES NOT RETIRE BUT IS LOST FOR THIS SEASON AND WE GET THE INJURY EXCEPTION TO USE BEFORE 10/1
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12
Shaq $20M $20M $20M
Wade $13 $14.5 $16 (hold 18)
UD $6 $6.5 $7 (hold
Blount $7 $7 $8
Cook $1 $1 $1 $2 $3
full MLE $6 $6.5 $7 $8 $9
full MLE $6 $6.5 $7 $8 $9
#1 pick $5 $5 $5 $7 $9
and possibly
Wright $2 $3 $3.5 $4 $4.5 (if we match a Charlie Bell type deal)
Quinn $.7 $1.5 $1.5
Figuring we'd have to go full 5 to get top notch MLE guys, we're looking at still having $25M in 2010, plus having to hold $26 to potentially resign UD and Wade, so we'd have $51M committed... certainly not enough free space to get a Lebron or Brand if they are free.
versus
SHAQ RETIRES NOW
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12
Shaq $20M $20M
Wade $13 $14.5 $16 (hold 18)
UD $6 $6.5 $7 (hold
Blount $7 $7 $8
Cook $1 $1 $1 $2 $3
full MLE $6 $6.5 $7 $8 $9
#1 pick $5 $5 $5 $7 $9
and possibly
Wright $2 $3 $3.5 $4 $4.5 (if we match a Charlie Bell type deal)
Quinn $.7 $1.5 $1.5
which means in the summer of 09, we'll have $48 committed and in 10 $21 committed and holding another $26, totaling $47. In this scenario we could potentially geta max player in 09 and another in 10 before re-upping Wade.
I'm like Global Warming, you can't ignore me.