Question: Trade #2 Pick to the Bulls?

[DuckIII]

I am a Bulls fan. Today in his chat, Chad Ford talked about Miami trading down or out of the draft if Chicago takes Rose. He noted that the Heat would perhaps look to deal the #2 pick down for Mayo or out of the draft altogether for Hinrich or Ford.

Obviously the #2 pick is worth a lot more than Hinrich or Ford.

So here is my question: the following is my breakdown of why I think it might be possible (though unlikely) that Miami might be willing to trade the #2 pick to Chicago. For informational purposes, you should know that Gordon and Deng are excluded because they simply can't be traded on draft day due to their restricted free agent status. I realize both are desirable pieces and I would have included them as potential trade pieces, but they can't be included per the CBA.

Anyway, here is my general thought process and breakdown that I posted on the Chicago board:

I don't think Miami would either. I think they are more likely to just trade down for Mayo + depth.

But think about it: What does Miami need to get back on top? Stars? No. They have an allstar small forward in Marion and a superstar in Wade.

What they need is depth, because the rest of their roster is a joke other than Haslem who is decent. No team is in a better position to provide Miami (or any team for that matter) with diverse, quality depth than Chicago.

Trade pieces Chicago could offer on draft day in one combination or another depending on how salaries match up:

Hinrich (combo guard)
Noah (can play the 4 or 5)
Thabo (can play the 1, 2 and 3)
Gooden (veteran scoring 4 on a great, expiring contract)
Thomas (a 4, but a high upside acquisition)
Nocioni (3-4 that is cleary a Riley type of player)
Gray (lumbering, low post scoring 5)
future picks

The Bulls could provide Miami with a number of combinations of very high quality role players that, when combined with Wade, Marion and Haslem, would make Miami instant contenders.

The Bulls would be left with:

Rose
Beasley
Gordon
Deng
+whatever role players weren't traded away as the core going forward.

Too good to be true but not so far out of the realm of logic and possibility so as to be completely discounted.

Am I totally off base on this. If so, how? If not, what parts did I get right from your perspective as Heat Fans?

[dflash3]

^I'd rather take the risk on a potential franchise player than trading for some quality role players. And if the Heat were looking to trade for the #2 I'd rather have it done in return for another pick along with the other team taking back Blount.

[Miami's Finest]

I wrote the same thing on the bulls board but I really doubt Chad Ford knows who Riley really likes. If all we keep hearing is reports leaking that Riley doesn't want Beasley and is in love with every other prospect, it probably means Beasley is who he hopes falls to us... that's how Riley operates. Just like the year Wade came out most of the talk was Kaman and Hinrich were the guys Riley liked. Miami needs another all-star caliber player like Beasley can be to get back into contention.

[Flash3]

^I'd rather take the risk on a potential franchise player than trading for some quality role players. And if the Heat were looking to trade for the #2 I'd rather have it done in return for another pick along with the other team taking back Blount.

Basically.

[Flash3]

And, when Chad Ford starts saying Riley will do this or that, it leads me to believe, he knows jack. -- Riley's never one to show his hand, to anyone!

[BFRESH44]

they simply can't be traded on draft day due to their restricted free agent status. I realize both are desirable pieces and I would have included them as potential trade pieces, but they can't be included per the CBA.

They can, they're just need to be a wink wink deal post the draft, and some salary fillers.

Plus there's no way there's even much a dicussion if Deng(probably Chicago's best player) is not on table.

But even if so, I wouldn't trade the pick for Hirich + Deng..Because Beasley's(as is Rose's) ceiling is so far above them combined.

[unowen85]

The Heat do need stars. Marion has only one year left on his contract, and could probably be gone after next season if his demands are too high for an extension.

So the Heat could be left with just Wade and a couple good role players. Instant lottery contenders.

[Lakersfan23]

I think the Heat would do the following trade:

#2 pick + Blount + Banks + Haslem

for

Hinrich, Deng (resigned), Tyrus Thomas, Noah, Sefalosha


Miami new roster:

PG - Hinrich
SG - Wade, Thabo
SF - Marion/Deng
PF - Tyrus Thomas
C - Noah

Chicago new roster:

PG - Derrick Rose
SG - Gordon/Hughes
SF - Nocioni
PF - Beasely/Haslem
C - Gooden/Gray

[Flash3]

I'll take my chances on Beasley/Rose and their potential over whatever the Bulls might give us.

[DuckIII]

^I'd rather take the risk on a potential franchise player than trading for some quality role players. And if the Heat were looking to trade for the #2 I'd rather have it done in return for another pick along with the other team taking back Blount.

It is assumed that the Bulls be taking back undesirable contracts in the deal (Blount and Banks?) to make the salaries match. The only legitimate asset that I have coming to the Bulls in a potential trade is the pick.

So you'd rather have another, lower, pick over multiple quality role players to fill out your roster?

I don't understand that. I do understand wanting to keep the #2 pick, because I'm a believer in Beasley. But I don't understand preferring the trade down just to dump a contract when Chicago could provide you more diverse talent to fill out your thin roster and still facilitate the contract dump.

I haven't toyed around with the contracts, but you'd rather trade down than potentially start the season with a roster like this:

Hinrich
Wade
Marion
Haslem
Noah

With Thabo Sefalosha or Gooden or Nocioni or whatever else fits contract wise on your bench?

I look at that and see a team that is right there with Boston from Day 1. I'm not trying to argue, you know your team better than I do. I'm just trying to understand it.

[DuckIII]

And, when Chad Ford starts saying Riley will do this or that, it leads me to believe, he knows jack. -- Riley's never one to show his hand, to anyone!

I'm not suggesting that his report is accurate. Ignore the source. I'm just talking about the idea in general.

[DuckIII]

Deng (resigned)

Deng can't be included. I see another poster said he could be if it were a "wink wink" deal between Riley and Paxson, but there is more to it than that.

Deng would have to agree to the trade and the value of his contract and neither Miami nor the Bulls are even allowed to talk to him about such things until well after the draft.

I just don't see what the point is in discussing his inclusion, or Gordon's, since it would be (a) illegal; and (b) purely speculative based on whether or not they'd agree to it, which is required.

[DuckIII]

I'll take my chances on Beasley/Rose and their potential over whatever the Bulls might give us.

I can understand that though. That is probably how I'd look at it if I were a Heat fan.

Frankly, I don't understand all the media reports about how Miami might not want Beasley. He strikes me as a natural fit to accompany Wade going forward. A better fit than Rose.

[Cliff Levingston]

Duck. Technically, Riley could draft Beasley and hang onto his rights for a little bit post-draft to allow things like sign and trades to develop, if he chooses.

Starting July 15th, we could technically agree to a sign and trade with Deng and package him with Hinrich and Noah for the rights to Beasley, Blount and Banks (for example).

ICLO, the only way Riley deals the 2nd pick is if something gave him legit concern that Wade might leave in 2010 if the team isn't really competitive. A summer deal with the Bulls that returns 3 high level role players would (ICLO) indeed put the Heat right back in the Eastern Conference mix in '08-'09. If there's no real pressure from Wade, which there likely isn't, than the Heat would be better off taking Beasley (or Mayo if Riley likes him enough) and hope that that guy becomes a complementary super-star to Wade.

[Flash3]

-= original quote snipped =-



I'm not suggesting that his report is accurate. Ignore the source. I'm just talking about the idea in general.

no worries, that's understood.

but, i don't see miami trading the #2 for a slew of role players, when they are looking to add a star alongside wade (FA/Draft)

[BBallFreak]

no worries, that's understood.

but, i don't see miami trading the #2 for a slew of role players, when they are looking to add a star alongside wade (FA/Draft)

Precisely.

And DuckIII, if Miami trades down and includes Blount, you can be damn sure that we're not just doing it to dump Blount. We'll be getting a quality player or two for his salary.

Also, as I've been saying all along, it's a lot easier to add role players than it is to add stars. We'll take the star, then fill in the blanks later, thank you...

[GameTime_3]

The only way the heat trade the 2 overall pick is because they get a Allstar and late lotto. Brand and 7# would do the trick but it seems like LA is not willing to talk. Beasley-Wade-Marion for a season and next year go after A Max player.

[caneaddict]

It's funny, every fan comes up with trades where they give up a bunch of good assets for a great asset.

In basketball, you win because of your stars. Depth is something you fill in later once you have a core in place. It's easier to convince good veterans and role players to sign to a team with proven stars.

Everyone does this. I do it in my fantasy football league every year, offer someone a bunch of good players for a star. 9 times out of 10, the team that walks away from the deal with the single best player ends up better off.

[AirGordon]

I dont post very often but I roam the different boards quite a bit. It seems like alot of people are under valuing the top 2 picks. I feel like both Rose and Beasley do have Super Star potential.

IMO both teams should keep their picks unless they are getting Lebron, Howard, Kobe, CP3, DWill, DWade, Amare.. those are the only players off the top of my head that I would be fine with the Bulls trading the #1 for.

Now I may be over valuing the pick but I have a good feeling about both Rose and Beasley. I am still stuck between which one I want the Bulls to pick but I will be very happy with either one. I think both players will be franchise players.

[DuckIII]

It's funny, every fan comes up with trades where they give up a bunch of good assets for a great asset.

In basketball, you win because of your stars. Depth is something you fill in later once you have a core in place. It's easier to convince good veterans and role players to sign to a team with proven stars.

Everyone does this. I do it in my fantasy football league every year, offer someone a bunch of good players for a star. 9 times out of 10, the team that walks away from the deal with the single best player ends up better off.

This is obviously all true. I viewed this as a more unique scenario in which the general rule might not apply because:

(a) The Heat already have the coveted superstar in Wade;

(b) The Heat already have an allstar in Marion;

(c) The Heat's roster, other than a decent Haslem, is otherwise very poor from top to bottom with multiple starters roles to fills as well as practically the entire bench;

(d) If they don't get back to contender status very quickly, Wade might leave;

(e) The Bulls don't just have standard role players to offer, they have very high quality role players in great numbers and diversity that other teams just can't offer;

(f) The trade would result in a Miami roster that, in my opinion, would be right at the top of the East along with Boston next season with a legit shot to immediately return to the Finals.

I viewed it as a unique scenario where the standard "don't accept a collection of lesser assets for a potential star asset" rule of thumb might not apply.

In my opinion, if Miami does a version of my trade, they are instant contenders and still relatively young. If they don't, then they are going to be decent next year, but nothing special even in the East, and will be as thin and hole-y as a slice of Kraft swiss.

3-4 years from now would it pay off for Miami if they kept the pick? I'd wager it would. But thats only if Wade sticks around to find out.