"Let Go of Boozer/Brand Notion" - Here's Why

[HeatSince88]

From the minute we traded Shaq, Pat Riley and many of us started obsessing about how to land our next 20/10 post presence to complement Wade and make us champs again. Most experts and fans are of the opinion that we now have that 20/10 PF in the form of Michael Beasley -- and we have to assume Riley & Co believe so as well or else they wouldn't have taken him.

Now that Wade/Beasley are in place and should be fixtures for years to come, our focus MUST shift from the Boozer/Brand obsession of the past few months to giving Wade/Beasley exactly what they need to become champions. So what do we do? Who is this magical, signable player in 2009 who can come in and have such an impact ... and who doesn't already play SG or PF where we are all set?

What we've all been missing (Riley too) is that probably a third (or even half) of the restricted guys on the market THIS offseason will just end up signing one-year tenders, and be UNRESTRICTED in 12 months. All are young/improving and fit with Wade/Beasley better than the older Boozer and Brand would. The list:

Restricted This Year - Maybe a Third/Half of Them UNRESTRICTED Next Year
- Josh Smith ......... taller, younger Marion --- absolutely ideal fit offensively and defensively
- Emeka Okafor ...... much needed defensive presence at center and under basket
- Andre Iguodala .... awesome at SF next to Wade/Beasley
- Monta Ellis ......... ridiculous backcourt combo with Wade, can play 12 years with Beasley
- Andris Biedrins ...... top young center, hard to find, leaves money for another FA too
- Luol Deng ............. see Iguadola
- Ben Gordon ........... wouldn't fit as well as other guys, but deadly shooter and solid defender
- Jose Calderon ........ sets up Wade and Beasley for years like no one's business
- Louis Williams .......... cheaper than other guys, allowing us to sign two FAs
- Josh Childress ......... same as Lou Williams

Add that to unrestricted's next year who would fit for shorter term
- Baron Davis
- Lamar Odom
- Ron Artest (plus someone else)
- Allen Iverson
- Corey Maggette (could be FA next yr, we'll see)
- Andre Miller (plus someone else)
- Rasheed Wallace (plus someone else)
- Jason Kidd (bleh)

Plus some restricted's next year who are probably attainable with nice offer
- Marvin Williams
- Ray Felton
- Other dudes who would also leave us with money for someone else


So let's let go of the Brand or Boozer idea. And hope that JOSH SMITH or OKAFOR or IGUADOLA or someone of that ilk does not agree to a longterm deal this summer, making them ours next summer and for years to come.

Possible "Big 3s" Until Wade Retires
- Wade/Josh Smith/Beasley
- Wade/Beasely/Okafor
- Wade/Iguadola/Beasley
- Wade/Deng/Beasley

Possible "Big 3's" for Shortterm Title Runs
- Iverson/Wade/Beasley
- B Davis/Wade/Beasley
- Wade/Odom/Beasley
- Wade/Maron/Beasley ... duh
- or a psychotic Big 4 of Wade/Artest/Beasley/RWallace

Can we all agree to start pushing past the Brand/Boozer obsession and instead hope to make one of these scenarios happen? We can even start bullying local writers to see things this way via emails to them, posts on their blogs, and advocating for it wherever we can ... Their resulting articles and blogs then create a drumbeat of fan pressure for Riley to give into (just as it did in drafting Beasley). Then we can all stop wasting time trying to figure out how to make older, redundant Boozer/Brand work and instead revel in a young, exciting Big 3 of say Wade/J-Smith/Beasley for the next decade.

What do you say Heat fans?

[miamiballer]

I say split the MLE b/w pietrus (or james jones) and kwame brown, with the 2nd year as options. 3 mil each sounds about right

keep haslem as a reserve for now and if need be can be a trading chip at the deadline

dont extend marion yet...see how he fits the team....if he doesnt fit, look into signing either iggy, deng or odom next season

2008-2009 miami heat

Kwame/zo/blount
Beasley/Haslem/Joel Anthony/Stephane Lasme
Marion/pietrus/wright
wade/cook
Banks/chalmers/quinn

we could also look to trade haslem and banks together for an upgrade at pg

[TrueRain]

Someone like Kwame Brown is the last type of person a rebuilding Heat team like this needs.

[SJ2100]

Great post! Very good evaluation, and its about time somebody made this point.

Brand and Boozer are redundant at this point, we need to get young talent to surround Wade and Beasley. Josh Smith is a name you kept bringing up, he would be a really nice complement to Beasley, giving us a guy who can defend both forward spots at an elite level. Iguodala is obviously a gem on the wing, and Deng, Okafor, Ellis, Gordon, and all the other RFAs could make us really really good for a really long time. I would like to see a few of these guys extend their rang out to the NBA 3-point line, as that is something we are gonna need from the rest of the players we surround Beasley-Wade, as is defensive versatility, which Smith and Iguodala bring loads of.

One thing to consider: Do we need max cap room to sign all of these guys, or could we use our MLE this year and still sign a guy like Josh Smith for $11 million the following year? It's definitely a big risk, but we could gamble on that and work to move Banks and/or Blount for an expiring contract.

[Lane1974]

I don't think we give anyone the MLE for a lot of years, we might have to overpay in the short-run, giving more $ in return for less years, like overpaying for Kwame but keeping the cap room for 2010, when these guys would also be Bird righted, I believe..

looking over the UFAs for this year, the center crop is very very thin, Kwame and Elson being two guys I could see going after, and ask them to take up space and get us 5/5 in 20 mpg

[Wade2k6]

I'd be alright with that.. preferably Kwame though because he can at least go out and play pretty good defense on the opposing teams C.

Give him a 1 or 2 year deal worth 3-5 million, whatever they can get him for. The deal would expire at the 2010 FA year.

From your post though '88, I think the Heat need to stay patient. If they don't feel any of those players from your list will make this team a championship level team, don't go out and spend the money on them. The main goal, or at least in Rileys mind is the 2010 FA class. If they can add a Bosh or somebody of his caliber, then I'd do that in a second over Iggy/Josh Smith, etc..

[unowen85]

Can the Heat sign somebody next off season to a near maximum salary without sacrificing the cap space in the 2010 off season that could bring the Heat another maximum salary player?

I think Luol Deng is a perfect fit between Wade and Beasley. This dude is an assassin from the mid range right now, so he's got all the tools to become a spot up threat from three point land eventually.

And if the Heat are able to save some room in the 2010 off season, they could go for a center. I know people think of him as a bust, he's still only 23 years old, but I'm a big fan of Bogut. So hopefully he does the same thing as this year's restricted free agents, and goes ahead and signs the one year tender to become a free agent in two years. With the 2010 Heat looking like: Chalmers, Wade, Deng, Beasley, Bogut.

[microfib4thewin]

Boozer is an overrated PF. He will give you 20 points and allow 25 points from his opposition.

[Lane1974]

if we got Bogut, BFO & Marty would be insufferable on here

[HeatSince88]

if we got Bogut, BFO & Marty would be insufferable on here

Moreso than usual?

[caneaddict]

Great post.

Josh Smith would be my #1 target but I don't think he signs the one year tender because in his case it's so low. He could make $10-$13MM next year under a new contract, his tender is $3MM. That's too big of a difference for him to give up. The only way he would possibly take a one year offer is if someone offered him a one year $10MM deal that Atlanta would match so he could get his money and become a free agent. The problem is no one will give him a deal like that because they know Atlanta would match and there would be no benefit to the team making the offer other than locking up their free agent money for 2 weeks until Atlanta matches.

Okafor would be my #2 target because he will probably sign a deal in the $10-$12MM range and that would still leave us enough room for another max player in 2010. Okafor is far more likely than Smith to sign the one year tender. He rejected an extension last summer that would average $12MM. It's hard to imagine Charlotte offering him much more than that now. His one year tender is $7MM. So the difference between his tender of $7MM and a new contract starting at $10 or $11MM is not egregious. The difference can be made up by signing a more lucrative deal next summer.

Calderon would be my #3 target but I think he resigns this summer with Toronto.

I love some of those other guys too but most of them will sign extensions. The difference in money is ususally just too great. Most of those guys have very low tender offers which makes it tough to pass up a bigger deal.

[Lakersfan23]

I like your thinking.

The problem is I think all of those teams will be very very stupid to let their players walk. Josh Smith, Okafaor, Deng. These are all cornerstone players. The Hawks, Bobcats, and Bulls wont let them come to the Heat, not for nothing.


Along those lines though, I think the perfect player to mesh with Wade and Beasley is Gerald Wallace. This guy can do everything. He's younger than Marion, but plays a similar style. He has a better shot though. Can jump out of the building. Rebounds, defends, passion. Everything you'd want in a third option. Plus, he's signed to a relatively good deal. 5 years, $48 million. That's cheaper than we wanted to keep Marion for, and he's the same age as Wade, so they'll both together for many many years. And it's cheaper than we'd have to pay for Brand, probably like 5 years, $90 million.

I say blow off the summer of 2009 plan and just go for Gerald Wallace. He comes at a cheap price tag and we can get him NOW, instead of worrying about Brand leaving the Clippers for us.

Do this deal:

Shawn Marion ($17.1 million)

for

Gerald Wallace ($8.3 million)
Raymond Felton ($4.1 million) - Bobcats just drafted Augustin, Felton is expendable
Matt Carroll ($5 million expiring) - sharpshooter


PG: Felton, Chalmers, Banks, Quinn
SG: Wade, Cook, Carroll
SF: Wallace, Wright
PF: Beasley, Haslem
C: Blount, Mourning, FA

Now you can use the full MLE to get a QUALITY Center. Trade away Banks and Blount for whatever you can get that lowers the payroll.

Let's just stop dreaming about Brand, and get the guy that will mesh the best with Wade and Beasley - Gerald Wallace.

[Heat11114]

What about the possibility of Okur? He can opt out of 9 million in 2009. Decent rebounder, great range, he'll be 30 but seemingly has a game that could make him productive into his mid-late thirties.

[HeatSince88]

The problem is I think all of those teams will be very very stupid to let their players walk. Josh Smith, Okafaor, Deng. These are all cornerstone players. The Hawks, Bobcats, and Bulls wont let them come to the Heat, not for nothing.

Even if all 12 restricted guys are re-signed to longterm deals over the next two months (which would be a miracle) that would still leave the 8 unrestricted guys who could make an impact for us in a year.

So in the worst case scenario you just presented, we still have a TON of options beyond Brand/Boozer who can catapult a Wade/Beasley team to contention.

Just another eason to get past the Brand/Boozer fixation, IMO.

[HEATVols865]

Josh Smith is the most overrated guy ever!
He'd be a cancer!
I live in ATL and I've heard the local announcers on TV and Nique saying: JSmoove actually hussled tonight! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
A guy that compared the Hawks franchise to the Celtics franchise and said there was not a big difference?
No thanks. Now Okafor...I'd love to have him in Miami. He's a very smart guy and great player.

[HeatSince88]

What about the possibility of Okur? He can opt out of 9 million in 2009. Decent rebounder, great range, he'll be 30 but seemingly has a game that could make him productive into his mid-late thirties.

Definitely a fallback option if the 18 other guys are signed off the market. That's what I'm saying, TON of options beyond redundancy.

[HeatSince88]

Josh Smith is the most overrated guy ever!
He'd be a cancer!
I live in ATL and I've heard the local announcers on TV and Nique saying: JSmoove actually hussled tonight! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Good, I hope they let the "cancer" go then ...

Like Golden State did with Tim Hardaway, Dallas did with Mashburn, Clippers did with Odom, and the Lakers did with Shaq.

A 23-year-old who will probably put up 20ppg/9rpg/4apg/3blks for 8-10 years and fits perfectly skill-wise next to Beasley? He could actually HAVE cancer and I'd still be interested.

[Heat11114]

Here's the problem with guys coming off rookie contracts, almsot none of them make it to the point where they are unrestricted. The max level guys sign extensions before they even hit the market (Wade, Lebron, Bosh), the guys who dont end up resigning when they're restricted. If they hit restricted status you have to overpay just to see if the team matches and then they can tie our money up for 2 weeks while they decide. Most of these guys like Josh Smith want max money, their teams offer 6 years 60 mil, we have to give 5 years 75 mil and hope that they dont match, which they probably will anyway cause it's a PR nightmare to have a young productive guy walk for nothing.

[heat4life]

+1

Either way, I don't see us using the MLE this year. I wouldn't be surprised with Riley resigning Ricky Davis for 1yr at around $6mil and maybe even JWill for another year for depth. Then use the LLE on a 2yr deal (Elson?)

[HeatSince88]

Here's the problem with guys coming off rookie contracts, almsot none of them make it to the point where they are unrestricted. The max level guys sign extensions before they even hit the market (Wade, Lebron, Bosh), the guys who dont end up resigning when they're restricted. If they hit restricted status you have to overpay just to see if the team matches and then they can tie our money up for 2 weeks while they decide. Most of these guys like Josh Smith want max money, their teams offer 6 years 60 mil, we have to give 5 years 75 mil and hope that they dont match, which they probably will anyway cause it's a PR nightmare to have a young productive guy walk for nothing.

I'm not saying "Let's go after a restricted guy and see if their team matches." That would likely be a waste of time, just as you're poinitng out.

I'm saying that out of the guys who are restricted now (like Josh Smith), chances are, a couple of them will be unrestricted next year when we have our cap space. That means in 2009, Atlanta would not have the option of matching our offer -- if Smith agrees with us, he's ours.

How could this happen? Well, let's say Josh Smith wants max money right now, but Atlanta won't go over $11 mill. And maybe he's tired of thier loser-ass franchise anyway, and his agent points out D-Wade and Beasley will have max cap room next year. So he refuses the Hawk's lowball offer and signs his tender. The second that happens, that makes him unrestricted next year.

I'm not saying that WILL happen to Josh Smith. But out of 10 guys in that position, it wouldn't be surprising to see 3 of them end up that way, especially give the cheapness displayed by their teams historically.

And even if all 10 restricted's this year re-sign longterm, that still leaves a number of other unretsricted impact guys next year. Or if all else fails, re-up Marion for a huge one-year deal and try again in 2010.

All in all, a TON of options beyond the Boozer/Brand thinking.