Dear Andrew Bogut,

[midranger]

-= original quote snipped =-



A good post Luke and I feel that your numbers are pretty close to right. The problem for the bucks however is the distinct lack of quality centers in the league, particularly in comparison to say point guards for example. Even though Bogut and Mo are probably on a pretty similar level as players Bogut is always going to be worth more purely because good big men are much harder to find.

Like Europa I don't think Bogut's next contract will be under $10m per, no matter who it's signed with, and IF he came out early next season and put up 18/10 for a month or two I can see the Bucks offering him the kitchen sink, rightly or wrongly, as he'd be hot property around the league. Whether Bogut takes it or not remains to be seen.

An average player at a position, is an average player at a position. It's all relative. Half the nights you'll outplay the other guy, half the nights you'll be outplayed. If anything, being average at a weak position makes you less valuable from a production standpoint.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

Like Europa I don't think Bogut's next contract will be under $10m per, no matter who it's signed with

I agree with that, but that doesn't change my opinions on when we should offer this $10 million.

and IF he came out early next season and put up 18/10 for a month or two I can see the Bucks offering him the kitchen sink, rightly or wrongly, as he'd be hot property around the league.

If he puts up 18/10 for a month or two and then stops, it will be no different than putting up 16/10 for a month or two this year. It doesn't dramatically effect his value. If he averages 18/10 for the entire year, then we will probably have to pay him $12 million a year. I'm happy to take that risk.

On the other hand, I submit that 18/10 is no more likely than another 14/9 season. If he puts up 14/9 again, his value will go down from where it is now, because the general consensus will be "he is what he is," just as people finally admitted with Darko and Kwame (Bogut is better than those two - just saying there is a point where you realize the guy isn't going to "break out").

Let me use back of the envelope math to show the rationale behind thinking we should wait. First of all, I think his value right now is $10.5 million a year. A year from now his value will be:

5% - he gets a severe injury and his value is $6 million
5% - he regresses slightly to 13/8 and his value is $7 million
40% - he barely improves to 14/9 and his value drops to $9 million
40% - he improves to 16/9 and his value stays right at $10.5 million
10% - he puts up 20/10 and his value increases to $12.5 million

(.05 x 6) + (.05 x 7) + (.4 x 9) + (.4 x 10.5) + (.1 x 12.5) = $9.7

Now I pulled those percentages out of my ass, but that logic exercise should give you a better idea of whether we should be in a hurry to sign him, as long as you change the percentages to reflect how likely you think he is to achieve different scenarios.

[xTitan]

xTitan has been drifting very close to unreadable for some time now.

Right back at you.

[midranger]

No way. I've been there for a while.

Anyway, my overreactions and hissy fits are far less dramatic.

[paul]

[quote="adamcz"][/quote]

Nice! Whether those percentages are even close to correct or not, I couldn't be more impressed with the math and logic

[xTitan]

No way. I've been there for a while.

Anyway, my overreactions and hissy fits are far less dramatic.

I am guessing the Michael Redd fans are getting a good laugh right now ...When you have a bad team with mis-matched players people pick there favorites...mine and yours are complete opposites.