Hollinger's Bucks Preview is out in The Athletic. Has us 50-22, first in East, and making it to the Finals. A few snippets:
https://theathletic.com/2245592/2020/12/18/hollinger-2020-21-bucks-preview-giannis-contract-extension/Offseason summary
The Bucks offseason was more notable for what didn’t happen than what did. We’ll get to that in a minute.
Traded PG George Hill, PG Eric Bledsoe, 24th pick, two unprotected future firsts and two pick swaps to New Orleans for SG Jrue Holiday and 60th pick
Drafted SF Jordan Nwora (45th) and SG Sam Merrill (60th)
Signed PG D.J. Augustin for three years, $21 million, with $333,333 guarantee on third year
Signed SG Pat Connaughton for three years, $16 million, with third-year player option
Signed SG Bryn Forbes for two years, minimum, with second-year player option
Signed SF Torrey Craig for one year, minimum
Signed C Bobby Portis for two years, $7.5 million, with second-year player option
Signed PF Giannis Antetokounmpo to five-year, $228 million extension
Did not re-sign C Robin Lopez, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Sterlin Brown, SF Kyle Korver or PF Marvin Williams
Waived PF Ersan Ilyasova
Of course, not listed in the above was the fouled-up sign-and-trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, one that was seemingly agreed to well before the official start of free agency and is now the subject of a league investigation.
While this was one of multiple recent own goals by the Bucks, it may be better that they didn’t go through with it. First, with Bogdanovic at or around a $16-17 million first-year salary, every other offseason addition would have had to be a one-year minimum deal due to the hard cap, leaving the Bucks with near-zero roster flexibility. Second, one of the players in the deal — shooting guard Donte DiVincenzo — actually rated as a more effective player last season by BORG and is just 23 years old. His ability to start at shooting guard while soaking up just a $3 million salary slot is a big key for Milwaukee this year.
The rest of the offseason was a bit of a mess as well. Start with one clear positive: Milwaukee also pushed its chips in by sending multiple unprotected picks to New Orleans for Holiday. That was the single best player the Bucks could have acquired, and it should beef up their already stout defense, although it won’t matter in the playoffs if they aren’t more committed to playing different styles effectively. Holiday also provides a decent secondary shot-creator to take some pressure off Middleton.
Oddly, the Bucks did not set this up as an extend-and-trade transaction, leaving Holiday’s future in doubt. He can leave as a free agent after the season, so this was a potential overpay, but perhaps a justifiable one if it resulted in Giannis’ supermax extension. Certainly, it came with risk: Milwaukee’s 2022, 2025 and 2027 first-round picks are completely unprotected, and the Bucks owe unprotected pick swaps in 2024 and 2026.
As the final piece of a sloppy offseason, the Bucks also messed up Connaughton’s deal, agreeing to an illegal deal (two years with a player option, which is a no-no for an early Bird rights player) before having to amend it by adding another year and more money. Milwaukee also could have preserved its midlevel exception and stuck to the original Connaughton deal if it had included Augustin’s deal as a sign-and-trade in the Holiday trade but apparently did not pursue that angle.
The other important piece was acquiring the 45th and 60th picks to select Nwora and Merrill, assuring that the last two roster spots will be filled by league minimum contracts. Those two moves were necessary to keep the Bucks under the hard cap (by less than $1 million), but in a final oddity, they didn’t use their remaining midlevel exception money to ink those two to three- or four-year deals.
Outlook and prediction
We can’t really say anything about the Bucks until the second round of the playoffs starts. A team with Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Holiday is virtually guaranteed to have the best record in the East in the regular season and to stomp some poor middling club in the first round of the playoffs. The real season for these guys starts in June, when we learn if the failures of the past two postseasons can sprout a different, more successful strategic approach.
That outcome could have profound impacts on the future for all three of Antetokounmpo, Holiday and Budenholzer. Thankfully, we won’t spend all season in an agonizing Giannis free-agency watch with announcers all but ignoring the game every time he’s on TV. Come summer, that could be a lot: I expect this Bucks team to finally get to the Finals.
Prediction: 50-22, 1st in Eastern Conference