ATL - New Lottery Rules Move to Owner Vote - pg59

[ReasonablySober]

Sure is. Don't see how that changes the fact that you should expect a better player with a Top-3 pick.

I'd bet that more often than not players taken #3 don't turn into top 30ish players.

I'll go out on a limb and say that you're in the extreme minority on this one.

Since 2000:

Darius Miles
Pau Gasol
Mike Dunleavy Jr
Carmelo Anthony
Ben Gordon
Deron Williams
Adam Morrison
Al Horford
OJ Mayo
James Harden
Derrick Favors
Enes Kanter
Bradley Beal
Otto Porter
Joel Embiid
Jahlill Okafor
Jaylen Brown

So yea, more often than not you're not getting a guy as good as Crowder.

[Ron Swanson]

This reminds me of those Peyton Manning arguments where people pointed to the Colts' record the year Peyton got hurt and said that proves he's better than Tom Brady. Cuz yeah, that Cavs team is completely built around Lebron and when Lebron sits, they're not a great team. No ****.

If the team was built around Kyrie then do you think a roster with Kyrie/Love would actually have the point differential of a 20-win team? Their defensive drop off is as much about not having a real rim-protector (TT is the closest thing) and being forced to play Love and Channing Frye at small-ball Center, as much as it is about Lebron sitting.

[DingleJerry]

I think the point is right that most often the player at #3 doesn't end up as good as Crowder.

However, I think that it's also accurate that at the time of drafting and a year after drafting them that a team would still be hoping/expecting the player to be a star at a level higher than Crowder. As RS just showed, they rarely live up to those expectations/hopes though.

People underestimate how hard it is to be a really really good top level NBA player. It was part of the reason I was all for trading Jabari before he came back the first time for a proven high level player like Lillard.

[Profound23]

I love all the hype behind Crowder and Isaiah Thomas. Now when Cleveland loses in the Finals, or possibly ECF I don't want to hear how much more help he needs.

[Rockmaninoff]

Lebron off, Kyrie on:
O/100: 106.7
D/100: 114.7

LeBron off, Kyrie off:
O/100: 106.5
D/100: 118.4

So with LeBron off, Kyrie has a net on/off of +3.9.

Cavs without LeBron overall:
O/100: 106.6
D/100: 116.6

To me, what this points to more than anything is that this Cavs team was built for LeBron.

Lebron on, Kyrie on:
O/100: 119.6
D/100: 108.7

LeBron on, Kyrie off:
O/100: 111.8
D/100: 106.5

Kyrie net on/off with LeBron on = +5.6

That would have been cool to have with Giannis.

[Prez]

I love all the hype behind Crowder and Isaiah Thomas. Now when Cleveland loses in the Finals, or possibly ECF I don't want to hear how much more help he needs.

Go take a look at Golden State's roster.

[Ron Swanson]

I'd bet that more often than not players taken #3 don't turn into top 30ish players.

I'll go out on a limb and say that you're in the extreme minority on this one.

Since 2000:

Darius Miles
Pau Gasol
Mike Dunleavy Jr
Carmelo Anthony
Ben Gordon
Deron Williams
Adam Morrison
Al Horford
OJ Mayo
James Harden
Derrick Favors
Enes Kanter
Bradley Beal
Otto Porter
Joel Embiid
Jahlill Okafor
Jaylen Brown

So yea, more often than not you're not getting a guy as good as Crowder.

We seem to be arguing different things. I'm not debating that there are a good number of draft busts that have been picked 3rd overall. I'm debating the notion that Jae Crowder is a Top-30 player in the league, and when picking that high, the expectation should be that you get a better player than that.

That's pretty much the whole reason why the Celtics traded him, with the expectation that Brown or Tatum should eventually become the vastly superior player. BTW, I count nine guys (Gasol, D-Will, Melo, Horford, Harden, Favors, Beal, Porter, Embiid) out of the last 16 drafts (not including Brown). Saying "more often than not" you don't get a better player than Crowder is being pretty generous.

[Profound23]

I love all the hype behind Crowder and Isaiah Thomas. Now when Cleveland loses in the Finals, or possibly ECF I don't want to hear how much more help he needs.

Go take a look at Golden State's roster.

Ok, so if he loses in the ECF, especially if it's to Kyrie's Celtics?

[ReasonablySober]

Not saying I live or die by Pelton's ratings because I absolutely don't, but he had his impact as a top 20 player last season, basically because he was a positive in every aspect.

[3Diamantidis]

Thank God the cavs didn't accept our trade proposal.
Irving/snell/giannis/teletovic/maker.....this would have been our lineup in the new season until jabari returned?
We would have been worse than 2017.
Brogdon can play both guard positions. Khris can play both SG and SF if needed(not against top SFs ofc).
Kyrie would have given us the PG we seek but the blow on our depth would have been severe.

[Prez]

I love all the hype behind Crowder and Isaiah Thomas. Now when Cleveland loses in the Finals, or possibly ECF I don't want to hear how much more help he needs.

Go take a look at Golden State's roster.

Ok, so if he loses in the ECF, especially if it's to Kyrie's Celtics?

Oh there's no excuses there, assuming they're healthy. But the Warriors are something else entirely.

[M-C-G]

This reminds me of those Peyton Manning arguments where people pointed to the Colts' record the year Peyton got hurt and said that proves he's better than Tom Brady. Cuz yeah, that Cavs team is completely built around Lebron and when Lebron sits, they're not a great team. No ****.

If the team was built around Kyrie then do you think a roster with Kyrie/Love would actually have the point differential of a 20-win team? Their defensive drop off is as much about not having a real rim-protector (TT is the closest thing) and being forced to play Love and Channing Frye at small-ball Center, as much as it is about Lebron sitting.

I actually looked at some of those non Lebron units and Channing Frye pretty much torpedoed any unit he was on...I think there was a Kyrie, Shump, JR, Love, TT unit (might be off about one of the guys) that were his most minutes played without Lebron and it was positive.

This exact conversation is going to come up here assuming we extend Jabari once he is healthy

[chonestown]

Sure is. Don't see how that changes the fact that you should expect a better player with a Top-3 pick.

I'd bet that more often than not players taken #3 don't turn into top 30ish players.

I'll go out on a limb and say that you're in the extreme minority on this one.

Purely for S&G

2017 Jason Tatum Duke Boston TBD
2016 Jaylen Brown Cal Boston TBD
2015 Jahlil Okafor Duke Philly NO
2014 Joel Embiid Kansas Philly YES
2013 Otto Porter Georgetown Washington YES
2012 Bradley Beal Florida Washington PUSH
2011 Enes Kanter Kentucky Utah NO
2010 Derrick Favors Georgia Tech New Jersey NO
2009 James Harden Arizona State Oklahoma YES
2008 O.J. Mayo USC Minnesota NO
2007 Al Horford Florida Atlanta YES
2006 Adam Morrison Gonzaga Portland NO
2005 Deron Williams Illinois Jr. Utah YES
2004 Ben Gordon UConn Jr. Chicago PUSH
2003 Carmelo Anthony Syracuse Fr. Denver YES
2002 Mike Dunleavy Duke Jr. Golden State NO
2001 Pau Gasol Spain Memphis YES
2000 Darius Miles HSSr. LA Clippers NO
1999 Baron Davis UCLA So. NO Hornets YES
1998 Raef LaFrentz Kansas Denver NO
1997 Chauncey Billups Colorado Boston YES
1996 Shareef Abdur-Rahim California Vancouver YES
1995 Jerry Stackhouse North Carolina Philadelphia YES
1994 Grant Hill Duke Detroit YES
1993 Anfernee Hardaway MemphisState Golden State YES
1992 Christian Laettner Duke Minnesota NO
1991 Billy Owens Syracuse Sacramento NO
1990 Chris Jackson Louisiana State Denver NO
1989 Sean Elliott Arizona San Antonio YES
1988 Charles Smith Pittsburgh Philadelphia NO
1987 Dennis Hopson Ohio State New Jersey NO
1986 Chris Washburn North Carolina State Golden State NO
1985 Benoit Benjamin Creighton LA Clippers NO
1984 Michael Jordan North Carolina Chicago YES (caveat: had a Hitler mustache)
1983 Rodney McCray Louisville Houston NO
1982 Dominique Wilkins Georgia Utah YES
1981 Buck Williams Maryland New Jersey YES
1980 Kevin McHale Minnesota Boston YES

TBD 2
PUSH 2
YES 17
YES [albeit with a Hitler mustache] 1
NO 16

Not as far fetched as seems for likelihood of #3 = not reaching top 30 for one season

[Ron Swanson]

The point is that you could insert any really solid starter/rotation guy and say that "more often than not, you don't pick a player 3rd overall that's better than James Posey".

I mean, sure....that's technically and by all means practically true. The James Poseys and Doug Christies of the world are substantially better basketball players than the Darius Miles and Raef Lafrentz's. Does that mean that I'd be happy that I picked Doug Christie 3rd overall? No, not really.

[fansinceforever]

I love all the hype behind Crowder and Isaiah Thomas. Now when Cleveland loses in the Finals, or possibly ECF I don't want to hear how much more help he needs.

In the ECF... to who? Never gonna happen.

and you can't possibly be arguing that the Cavs are eye level with the warriors....

[SKG]

If the cavs get a top 3 pick next year it could easily be traded for a star in the league and keep lebron

Good trade for boston aswell, letting IT go 1 year earlier, so basically it was crowder and a 1st for irving

Team should have thrown thon in with middletong and brogdon for irving

[JustinCredible]

If the cavs get a top 3 pick next year it could easily be traded for a star in the league and keep lebron

Good trade for boston aswell, letting IT go 1 year earlier, so basically it was crowder and a 1st for irving

Team should have thrown thon in with middletong and brogdon for irving

Yea, I believe they are flipping that pick for a star at the trade deadline.

[Profound23]

I love all the hype behind Crowder and Isaiah Thomas. Now when Cleveland loses in the Finals, or possibly ECF I don't want to hear how much more help he needs.

In the ECF... to who? Never gonna happen.

and you can't possibly be arguing that the Cavs are eye level with the warriors....

I am not, however with how some are falling over themselves on Cleveland getting Crowder and IT you would think they would.

So it's never gonna happen in the ECF now. Great....if Cleveland doesn't make the Finals, no excuses for Lebron is all I ask.

[fansinceforever]

I love all the hype behind Crowder and Isaiah Thomas. Now when Cleveland loses in the Finals, or possibly ECF I don't want to hear how much more help he needs.

In the ECF... to who? Never gonna happen.

and you can't possibly be arguing that the Cavs are eye level with the warriors....

I am not, however with how some are falling over themselves on Cleveland getting Crowder and IT you would think they would.

So it's never gonna happen in the ECF now. Great....if Cleveland doesn't make the Finals, no excuses for Lebron is all I ask.

I have really enjoyed watching Lebron and find myself defending him at times but I don't think irrationally. I don't think any LeBron supporter has ever had to defend anything in his career that would be as disappointing as him not bringing this team to the finals for his 8th straight appearance... Maybe the Dallas series but idk anybody who defends that.

Lebron has onyl lost one finals matchup in which he was favored to win. Dallas. And he's won 2 in which he was not favored. The idea that LeBron has always had the talent to win and his fanboys just make excuses for him has been extremely exaggerated.

[Baddy Chuck]

I wouldn't have been that upset if we made that reported deal for Kyrie.