Giannis' Development

Flight 22 · Post #1261 » by **Flight 22** » Mon May 2, 2016 9:01 pm

Although I don't think that we will see "massive" improvement in KAT's game, we have to realize that coming out of Kentucky most Wolves fans (myself included) were expecting Towns to be a project with a realistic stat-line of 12/8/2 on 45% shooting his rookie year. Obviously he exceeded those expectations, and I don't see why he won't be a significantly better player his sophomore year. My guess is that we'll see him put up 22/12/2 on 60% shooting with similar 3 point percentage as this year. In addition to this, his defensive presence should improve quite substantially with better coaching. Remember, we were rolling out Sam Mitchell for a majority of our games, a guy unanimously considered a bottom 3 coach in the league last season. Moving forward we have Thibodeau, who is at least a top 10 coach, and his defensive impact/schemes are top 3. If you watch the GSW game specifically, Towns demonstrated his defensive potential by switching from his man and rotating on the perimeter to guard Klay and Curry, and over large stretches of the game was the primary defender on Curry in a game where he went 4/14 from 3. Disagree with my assessment if you want, but I don't see Towns plateauing this year.

With that said, Giannis definitely has the potential for more of an overall impact relative to Towns, and between Bucks fans and myself will be the better player moving forward. He can legitimately defend the 1-4 right now, and if he puts on more weight will be effective guarding every position. A few years ago people talked about LeBron being able to do that, but we all knew it wasn't completely true. Giannis can be that guy. Another determining factor is whether or not Antetokounmpo can improve his shot. If he ever becomes a legitimate 3pt threat, he's going to own the league. This next season I expect Giannis to put up 20/8/8 on 50% shooting with improved defense. However, the main difference between Towns and Antetokounmpo that I think many of you would agree on is the future improvement we can expect after this next season.

Best case scenarios for both players:
Potential prime stats for KAT: 25/12/3/2/2
Potential prime stats for Antetokounmpo: 30/8/8/2/2

emunney · Post #1262 » by **emunney** » Mon May 2, 2016 9:01 pm

Why do people STILL assume that skilled young players don't just become even more skilled?

Post #1263 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon May 2, 2016 9:21 pm

KAT's ceiling the least likely one in the league I'm putting a cap on.

Prince12 · Post #1264 » by **Prince12** » Mon May 2, 2016 10:02 pm

30/8/8/2/2. Holy ****.

H2tObes · Post #1265 » by **H2tObes** » Mon May 2, 2016 10:07 pm

Prince12 wrote:30/8/8/2/2. Holy ****.

It's crazy because it's entirely possible if Giannis becomes a good shooter. He is already almost there with everything but the shooting

Prince12 · Post #1266 » by **Prince12** » Mon May 2, 2016 10:12 pm

H2tObes wrote:
Prince12 wrote:30/8/8/2/2. Holy ****.

It's crazy because it's entirely possible if Giannis becomes a good shooter. He is already almost there with everything but the shooting

Well obviously things changed after the asb but over the season he averaged under 17ppg. So he'd nearly have to double his scoring to get there. I doubt he ever becomes a scoring champ threat but he could damn near average a 22 point triple double next season.
It's just ludicrous even discussing this stuff. Why is opening night so far away?

H2tObes · Post #1267 » by **H2tObes** » Mon May 2, 2016 10:17 pm

Prince12 wrote:
H2tObes wrote:
Prince12 wrote:30/8/8/2/2. Holy ****.

It's crazy because it's entirely possible if Giannis becomes a good shooter. He is already almost there with everything but the shooting

Well obviously things changed after the asb but over the season he averaged under 17ppg. So he'd nearly have to double his scoring to get there. I doubt he ever becomes a scoring champ threat but he could damn near average a 22 point triple double next season.
It's just ludicrous even discussing this stuff. Why is opening night so far away?

I mean that's just if he completely maximizes his potential. I'd put it at less than 1% chance of happening but we can dream. I agree it's going to be a long offseason lol

Triple 7 · Post #1268 » by **Triple 7** » Mon May 2, 2016 10:31 pm

Jabari's development opens up the court that much more for Giannis as well. The two of them developing will increase the other's chances for success at the same time.

Post #1269 » by **Prez** » Mon May 2, 2016 10:40 pm

H2tObes wrote:
Prince12 wrote:
H2tObes wrote:It's crazy because it's entirely possible if Giannis becomes a good shooter. He is already almost there with everything but the shooting

Well obviously things changed after the asb but over the season he averaged under 17ppg. So he'd nearly have to double his scoring to get there. I doubt he ever becomes a scoring champ threat but he could damn near average a 22 point triple double next season.
It's just ludicrous even discussing this stuff. Why is opening night so far away?

I mean that's just if he completely maximizes his potential. I'd put it at less than 1% chance of happening but we can dream. I agree it's going to be a long offseason lol

30/8/8 is some peak Lebron sh*t, don't see that happening but you're right a scoring explosion is possible if not likely when he becomes a respectable shooter. He was putting up 19-20 ppg after the ASB with minimal range, it's being understated how crazy difficult it is to do that as a wing without much range, especially being a facilitator first.

Giannis with a good midrange game and 32-34% 3PT shooting would be completely unguardable, he could easily jump to 25-26 ppg.

mlloyd10 · Post #1270 » by **mlloyd10** » Mon May 2, 2016 10:51 pm

See Westbrook type stat line with more Rebs

drew881 · Post #1271 » by **drew881** » Mon May 2, 2016 11:03 pm

mlloyd10 wrote:See Westbrook type stat line with more Rebs

I could see this, but I don't think he will ever be attempting 4 threes a game. If he is, then that is icing on the cake. 22, 8, and 6.5 assists is what I think with about 1.5 blk and 1.5 stl.

Ayt · Post #1272 » by **Ayt** » Mon May 2, 2016 11:03 pm

mlloyd10 wrote:See Westbrook type stat line with more Rebs

So, the best player ever?

Ayt · Post #1273 » by **Ayt** » Mon May 2, 2016 11:10 pm

H2tObes wrote:
Ayt wrote:
Presence wrote:KAT is not a good defender yet, his shooting is good but he's wide open more often than not (he barely elevates) due to playing C and his game is polished enough to not warrant much further development imo. I see the same issues with Davis, meaning that when you reach a certain point of excellency as a young PF/C, people expect you to continue improving in leaps and bounds, and that just can't happen due to the lack of facets of the game you can work on.

I take Giannis 100 times out of 100. He's so fun to watch and I really don't know how good he'll become, but I'm positive his ceiling is higher.

He was a 20-year-old rookie who played one year in college (and didn't even play big minutes at Kentucky). You don't think he still has a ton of development to do? Despite how well he played, there are a lot of things he can get better at.

I can understand people taking Giannis for a lot of different reasons, but I can't say this argument makes much sense.

Maybe he means like Tim Duncan where he enters the league extremely good and his numbers don't improve much from there. I could see that. That's not saying he won't get better, but it is hard to improve on 18/10/2

He averaged 21-11-3 after the break so he already improved on those numbers.

H2tObes · Post #1274 » by **H2tObes** » Mon May 2, 2016 11:21 pm

Ayt wrote:
H2tObes wrote:
Ayt wrote:
He was a 20-year-old rookie who played one year in college (and didn't even play big minutes at Kentucky). You don't think he still has a ton of development to do? Despite how well he played, there are a lot of things he can get better at.

I can understand people taking Giannis for a lot of different reasons, but I can't say this argument makes much sense.

Maybe he means like Tim Duncan where he enters the league extremely good and his numbers don't improve much from there. I could see that. That's not saying he won't get better, but it is hard to improve on 18/10/2

He averaged 21-11-3 after the break so he already improved on those numbers.

Similar to Giannis we have to see him do it over an entire season. I think he will average those numbers sooner than later, I already said he will improve obviously as any 20 year old will. Just not a given he is going to be some 24/13/4/3 monster just because he is 20. Just like it's not a given that Giannis is a 24/8/8/2/2 guy

drew881 · Post #1275 » by **drew881** » Mon May 2, 2016 11:44 pm

Also, I'm not counting on Giannis to develop the jumper. I guess he did prove that he could shoot the corner three in his rookie season, but just not sure it will happen given his hand size. Did his hand size grow a lot since the rookie year? Is there another with such large hands that can shoot from the top of the key and the perimeter? Don't just list some tall dude who can shoot, unless you have some hand measurables "handy". We know he is very gifted with the ball in his dribbling, but I'm not sure he will ever develop a stroke where the ball comes off his hands smoothly enough.

Flight 22 · Post #1276 » by **Flight 22** » Mon May 2, 2016 11:48 pm

drew881 wrote:Also, I'm not counting on Giannis to develop the jumper. I guess he did prove that he could shoot the corner three in his rookie season, but just not sure it will happen given his hand size. Did his hand size grow a lot since the rookie year? Is there another with such large hands that can shoot from the top of the key and the perimeter? Don't just list some tall dude who can shoot, unless you have some hand measurables "handy". We know he is very gifted with the ball in his dribbling, but I'm not sure he will ever develop a stroke where the ball comes off his hands smoothly enough.

Kawhi is the only guy that comes to mind currently in the league, although I don't think his hands are as large as Giannis'.

thomchatt3rton · Post #1277 » by **thomchatt3rton** » Mon May 2, 2016 11:48 pm

I doubt Giannis ever averages 30 a game. If we're right about him, he'll be the type of player that from game to game will focus on what's needed to win, and that won't always be scoring. In fact, I think you see a little bit of this already.

I just don't see him ever being single-minded enough about scoring to average 30. That's not a bad thing.

Prince12 · Post #1278 » by **Prince12** » Mon May 2, 2016 11:49 pm

Kawhi seems to shoot pretty well

Ayt · Post #1279 » by **Ayt** » Mon May 2, 2016 11:51 pm

H2tObes wrote:
Ayt wrote:
H2tObes wrote:Maybe he means like Tim Duncan where he enters the league extremely good and his numbers don't improve much from there. I could see that. That's not saying he won't get better, but it is hard to improve on 18/10/2

He averaged 21-11-3 after the break so he already improved on those numbers.

Similar to Giannis we have to see him do it over an entire season.

That's true, but Towns played at a high level for a longer period than Giannis. You can just cut his season in half. The last 41 games of his rookie year he averaged 21.1/11.4/2.7/1.7 with a TS% of .606. That is an insane second half of a rookie season for a guy who spent one year in college. He hasn't even had an offseason to work on his body or the weaknesses in his game after having faced grown man NBA competition.

I think he will average those numbers sooner than later, I already said he will improve obviously as any 20 year old will. Just not a given he is going to be some 24/13/4/3 monster just because he is 20. Just like it's not a given that Giannis is a 24/8/8/2/2 guy

Other than the three blocks, it isn't far fetched to think Towns could average that as soon as next year if Thibs plays him 36+ MPG. Those numbers per minute are only slightly higher than what he did as a raw rookie (and his per minute production increased as the year went on). Giannis putting up that line for a full season is a bit more far fetched, IMO.

H2tObes · Post #1280 » by **H2tObes** » Tue May 3, 2016 12:06 am

How many players have put up 24/13/4/3 over a full season? That's like 4 points off of peak Shaq numbers. If Towns averages that as a sophomore i'll be ready to crown him a probable top 5 player of all time, with an inside track to GOAT status depending how many championships/MVP's he ends up with

Are you saying it's far fetched Giannis averages that line at any time of his career or next year? I think both of those stat lines are very unrealistic for either player to average next season, but each have a chance of reaching those numbers in their peak years