The Brandon Jennings Conundrum (Day 30)

[Bfinkish]

Just sign Jennings to the QO. Display him the first half of the year and trade him.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

why bother signing jennings to the QO to retain him as an asset if his value as an asset is zilch right now. the idea that we'd give him the qo and then horse around trying to find a deal for some scrub or a 2nd or something thats not available now seems dumb.
hes not going to have any trade value on that qo without bird rights if he doesnt have it now. i just dont see it.

[machu46]

Honestly, if he's down to take a deal like the one we offered Teague, I'd still be ok with it. I don't think he'll ever be a star or anything like that, but he's good enough to hold down the PG spot if you don't break the bank for him.

[andonewheel]

Honestly, if he's down to take a deal like the one we offered Teague, I'd still be ok with it. I don't think he'll ever be a star or anything like that, but he's good enough to hold down the PG spot if you don't break the bank for him.

I don't think he actually is. He is a horrible shooter and a bad defender. He is not a good enough facilitator to make up for those deficits. The rest of the NBA clearly doesn't even value him at the MLE level, so the only franchise that possibly considers him starting material is us- and even we are trying to replace him.

[H2tObes]

I would never even throw any type of contract at him simply because he is a not a player you want on your team. He could easily be a Jason Terry type player though if he would just settle for a 6th man role, but his head is just too big for him to ever consider stepping down as a 6th man.

All he is as of right now is Nate Robinson (albeit less efficient ), but he gets to shoot at an incredibly high volume. Add that to the fact he likes to quit on teams, I don't see there being much a market for Brandon, to say the least.

[Chapter29]

However, it can be statistically shown he's improving

And what stats would those be? There is basically no stat that shows he's really improved much from an already insanely bad rookie and sophomore season. The past three seasons he's been pretty steadily awful, and actually regressed last season compared to year 3.

FG% improved in years 1-3

Year 1: 37.1%
year 2: 39.0%
Year 3: 41.8%
Year 4: 39.9%

Yes, but ouch.

[Baddy Chuck]

If Jennings took the q/o, does anyone know if there's any restrictions to trading him right away? Like could we literally just trade him instantly?

[JayMKE]

If Jennings took the q/o, does anyone know if there's any restrictions to trading him right away? Like could we literally just trade him instantly?

i think we'd have to wait until December

[paulpressey25]

If Jennings took the q/o, does anyone know if there's any restrictions to trading him right away? Like could we literally just trade him instantly?

i think we'd have to wait until December

Not sure on the date. December 15th sounds right. But Brandon has to agree to the trade. He gets a no trade clause by virtue of the QO.

[EastSideBucksFan]

If Jennings took the q/o, does anyone know if there's any restrictions to trading him right away? Like could we literally just trade him instantly?

i think we'd have to wait until December

Not sure on the date. December 15th sounds right. But Brandon has to agree to the trade. He gets a no trade clause by virtue of the QO.

Oh.

So Jennings is basically for sure coming back unless we rescind the QO which we are very unlikely to do.

Right?

[paulpressey25]

Right. Brandon has to come back here under the QO. He can refuse to take it and "holdout" but we'd still hold his rights.

I think if he sat the whole season, we'd still hold his rights. But if he came back in December, I'm not sure that the Bucks get credit for that missed month.

There must be a date by which he has to accept the QO I would think.

[machu46]

Honestly, if he's down to take a deal like the one we offered Teague, I'd still be ok with it. I don't think he'll ever be a star or anything like that, but he's good enough to hold down the PG spot if you don't break the bank for him.

I don't think he actually is. He is a horrible shooter and a bad defender. He is not a good enough facilitator to make up for those deficits. The rest of the NBA clearly doesn't even value him at the MLE level, so the only franchise that possibly considers him starting material is us- and even we are trying to replace him.

I guess we just have differing opinions then. I think most teams would say he's about an average or slightly above average PG. This past year (his 4th in the NBA) lines up pretty closely with someone like Mike Conley in his 4th year. Jennings scored more than Conley (17.5 to 13.7), but did so at a slightly less efficient rate (.510 to .521 in TS%). They averaged the same number of assists per game (and I think one could easily say Conley plays with better teammates around him) and they turned it over at basically the same rate (2.5 to 2.2). I can't look up their advanced defensive numbers to compare because I don't think I have access to past seasons from Synergy, just the most recent one, but according to Defensive Rating, they're basically identical (108 to 107) and forced basically the same number of turnovers (1.6 steals to 1.8 steals). And for what it's worth, Jennings was a better FT shooter compared to Conley back then (81.9% to 73.3%), and they racked up identical rebounding numbers (3.1) with Jennings grabbing 4.6% of his team's rebounds and Conley grabbing 4.8%.

So yeah, I think you can definitely make a case that Jennings is worth around the same contract we offered Teague, and I honestly would put Jennings probably around the 10-16 range as far as today's PGs go (just off the top of my head; I haven't actually listed them out, so maybe this isn't completely true).

[KidA24]

Right. Brandon has to come back here under the QO. He can refuse to take it and "holdout" but we'd still hold his rights.

I think if he sat the whole season, we'd still hold his rights. But if he came back in December, I'm not sure that the Bucks get credit for that missed month.

There must be a date by which he has to accept the QO I would think.

From http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q43

A qualifying offer automatically expires on October 1, unless it is extended by the team (which is rarely done). A qualifying offer cannot be extended past March 1. If the deadline passes and the qualifying offer is neither withdrawn nor accepted, the player continues to be a restricted free agent. The team and player are free to negotiate a new contract after the qualifying offer expires -- the deadline only affects the player's ability to accept his qualifying offer.

If the player is coming off the fourth year of his rookie scale contract, then in addition to a qualifying offer, his team can also submit a maximum qualifying offer. A maximum qualifying offer is for five seasons at the maximum salary with 7.5% annual raises. It can contain no options, ETOs or bonuses of any kind, and must be fully guaranteed. When a team submits a maximum qualifying offer (in essence "stepping up" with a maximum contract offer before the player hits the free agent market), it places a more stringent requirement on other teams' offer sheets (see below).

A player can elect to accept his qualifying offer and play the following season under its terms. This is sometimes done in order to become an unrestricted free agent the following summer

More:

There are two additional circumstances in which a trade requires the player's consent:

When the player is playing under a one-year contract (excluding any option year) and will have Larry Bird or Early Bird rights at the end of the season. This includes first round draft picks following their fourth (option) season, who accept their team's qualifying offer for their fifth season. When the player consents to such a trade, his Larry Bird/Early Bird rights are not traded with him, and instead becomes a Non-Bird free agent2.
For one year after exercising the right of first refusal to keep a restricted free agent. The player must consent to a trade to any team, although he cannot be traded to the team that signed him to the offer sheet.

And more:

Generally a team only has to keep a player for three months after signing a contract or December 15 of that season, whichever is later. This does not apply to draft picks, who can be traded 30 days after signing. For sign-and-trade transactions, the initial trade which completes the sign-and-trade obviously is allowed, even though it occurs right after the player is signed. The trade restriction in a sign-and-trade applies to the first subsequent trade.

A lot to digest there, but basically it sounds like if he holds out and then accepts the QO (After Sept 15th) we have to wait 3 months to trade him, and if he holds out all year, we still retain his RFA rights.

[breakchains]

Honestly, if he's down to take a deal like the one we offered Teague, I'd still be ok with it. I don't think he'll ever be a star or anything like that, but he's good enough to hold down the PG spot if you don't break the bank for him.

[Frank Nova]

Jennings is like a bad musician, sure they get publicity and obviously have some sort of fan base, but any knowledgeable person can't stand them and won't support them. Like a bad musician, if you continue to put out crap after crap, u deserve to be heavily criticized IMO. So far in Jennings career, he's the NBA definition of a "1 hit wonder".

[JayMKE]

Jennings at 4/32 wouldn't be so bad maybe front load it too. He would be very movable in the future with that contract if it didn't work out.

[ReasonablySober]

If Jennings doesn't have that first month and a half of his rookie season, are we even talking about this?

[Baddy Chuck]

Jennings at 4/32 wouldn't be so bad maybe front load it too. He would be very movable in the future with that contract if it didn't work out.

If he doesn't improve, I think it's HIGHLY debatable if thats a moveable deal.

[Frank Nova]

If Jennings doesn't have that first month and a half of his rookie season, are we even talking about this?

Well to be fair, Jennings did have acouple of spectacular games in that playoff series vs ATL. But to answer your question, nope.

[machu46]

If Jennings doesn't have that first month and a half of his rookie season, are we even talking about this?

The last two years he's averaged around 18 and 6, and as I mentioned in a lengthy post above, he compares very similarly to Mike Conley Jr, so yeah, I think we'd be talking about this still.