The Brandon Jennings Conundrum (Day 30)

[Baddy Chuck]

I agree, although the deal is almost always above average or maxed out when its from a team other than the one the player is coming from.

And I'd agree with you that maybe the Bobcats would offer it, but the truth is that pretty much never actually happens.

Mediocre RFAs don't get tons of offers though, because they aren't worth overpaying for, are almost always worth more to the team that drafted them, and other reasons.

If Jennings lack of offers is indicative of anything, its that other teams don't feel he has much upside left.

Teague got a pretty fair deal. Ryan Anderson got a pretty fair deal. Batum got a pretty fair deal. Varejao got a pretty fair deal. I'd say it happens pretty damn often when players actually hit free agency. Obviously a lot of them get overpaid, because most players in the league are overpaid, but to say the deal is almost always above fair just really isn't true. I mean what other players can you even think of that made it to free agency before getting extended? Reke obviously got overpaid, Asik got a pretty fair deal, Lin may have been overpaid a little. But in the end, literally almost ALL of these guys got offers from teams. Teams weren't "afraid" to offer them contracts, fair or above average.

The fact is, Jennings isn't a good player and teams probably don't want him on their team.

[JayMKE]

If Brandon was an UFA, I think he is signed by now

[Baddy Chuck]

If Brandon was an UFA, I think he is signed by now

And probably on a 1 year deal like OJ Mayo last season.

[JayMKE]

If Brandon was an UFA, I think he is signed by now

And probably on a 1 year deal like OJ Mayo last season.

Jennings has been a lot better than OJ Mayo was his last two years in Memphis tho

[CJTURT]

I agree, although the deal is almost always above average or maxed out when its from a team other than the one the player is coming from.

And I'd agree with you that maybe the Bobcats would offer it, but the truth is that pretty much never actually happens.

Mediocre RFAs don't get tons of offers though, because they aren't worth overpaying for, are almost always worth more to the team that drafted them, and other reasons.

If Jennings lack of offers is indicative of anything, its that other teams don't feel he has much upside left.

Teague got a pretty fair deal. Ryan Anderson got a pretty fair deal. Batum got a pretty fair deal. Varejao got a pretty fair deal. I'd say it happens pretty damn often when players actually hit free agency. Obviously a lot of them get overpaid, because most players in the league are overpaid, but to say the deal is almost always above fair just really isn't true. I mean what other players can you even think of that made it to free agency before getting extended? Reke obviously got overpaid, Asik got a pretty fair deal, Lin may have been overpaid a little. But in the end, literally almost ALL of these guys got offers from teams. Teams weren't "afraid" to offer them contracts, fair or above average.

The fact is, Jennings isn't a good player and teams probably don't want him on their team.

There is a ton of substance to that post. Nicely done. Will be interesting to see what happens here.

[Baddy Chuck]

If Brandon was an UFA, I think he is signed by now

And probably on a 1 year deal like OJ Mayo last season.

Jennings has been a lot better than OJ Mayo was his last two years in Memphis tho

And still probably showed less then Jennings overall their first four years.

[ampd]

Most of the guys you listed are actually a bit overpaid, but their common thread is that teams offering those deals had good reason to suspect their teams wouldn't match when they made the offer. Asik and Lin are case examples of offers that the Knicks and Bulls could not match without big time negative cap ramifications (and in the case of Asik also not having enough minutes to justify paying that kind of salary to him). Ryan Anderson is another perfect example of a capped out Magic team full of bad contracts and cap problems created by trying to please Dwight who couldn't match that offer without lux tax problems.

Teams making a 'fair' offer to Jennings can pretty much 100% guarantee that we match it. Which is what makes our offer to Teague so stupid given that it seems our entire off season plan hinged on getting him.

[emunney]

If Brandon was an UFA, I think he is signed by now

And probably on a 1 year deal like OJ Mayo last season.

Didn't Mayo have a 2nd year player option that he declined? Still, it was like 4m.

[Baddy Chuck]

Teams making a 'fair' offer to Jennings can pretty much 100% guarantee that we match it. Which is what makes our offer to Teague so stupid given that it seems our entire off season plan hinged on getting him.

And I'm saying teams aren't afraid to offer a fair deal because he's restricted. Teams aren't offering him a deal because they don't want him on their team. They view him as a guy who is not worth a deal that he might sign and thus aren't even going to attempt to offer him the 4/$20 they want to, or maybe they have and Jennings' agent just isn't going to discuss it. Teams just don't not offer a player they want a deal because he's a restricted free agent. If they wanted him, like literally 99% of other restricted free agents the past, well, ever, he would've gotten a deal he wanted to sign by now.

I'm not arguing teams wouldn't want him. I'm arguing what you think is a "fair deal" in your eyes isn't to the 29 other teams in the NBA (and probably the Bucks) and Jennings is a stubborn little prick who would rather play on the qualifying offer then sign a deal he thinks he's "above". Which according to the market, he's obviously not worth.

[ampd]

Teams making a 'fair' offer to Jennings can pretty much 100% guarantee that we match it. Which is what makes our offer to Teague so stupid given that it seems our entire off season plan hinged on getting him.

And I'm saying teams aren't afraid to offer a fair deal because he's restricted. Teams aren't offering him a deal because they don't want him on their team. They view him as a guy who is not worth a deal that he might sign and thus aren't even going to attempt to offer him the 4/$20 they want to, or maybe they have and Jennings' agent just isn't going to discuss it. Teams just don't not offer a player they want a deal because he's a restricted free agent. If they wanted him, like literally 99% of other restricted free agents the past, well, ever, he would've gotten a deal he wanted to sign by now.

Obviously if he won't sign a fair deal then the entire discussion about him taking a fair deal is pretty pointless.

I don't think teams won't sign players who are RFA, I think they generally either only target players who they believe won't be matched for one reason or another (cap problems, team problems, poison pill, etc) or they attempt to overpay them in the hopes that they team won't match. Since we can and will match a fair offer, and Jennings didn't have the type of big year that typically gets guys overpaid in RFA, teams are not willing to overpay him and thus there is very little market for him, even discounting the other reasons (like most of the win now teams already having PGs, etc).

[Baddy Chuck]

I'm not getting where this "we are going to match a fair offer" is coming from. If you think 4/$32 is fair, that is what we offered to our first option at point guard, why would we think that is a fair offer to a guy we value less? That said, I don't think theres a team in the league going to offer Jennings 4/$32, restricted or not.

It isn't the "restricted" status on Jennings that is prevent teams from offering him deals, it's the fact that what may be "fair" for the usual 23 year old restricted free agent, isn't fair for Jennings because he isn't a good player.

[ampd]

If you don't think being RFA affects the offers guys receive, check out Gerald Henderson. There is no way his status is still up in the air if he is a UFA. He has none of the problems Jennings has, has improved every year, can shoot a fairly efficient percentage, etc.

The perception is that the Bobcats will match any fair offer, they want more than teams will give in trade, he wants more than a fair offer, and nobody thinks there is enough upside there to overpay for him.

[Baddy Chuck]

If you don't think being RFA affects the offers guys receive, check out Gerald Henderson. There is no way his status is still up in the air if he is a UFA. He has none of the problems Jennings has, has improved every year, can shoot a fairly efficient percentage, etc.

The perception is that the Bobcats will match any fair offer, they want more than teams will give in trade, he wants more than a fair offer, and nobody thinks there is enough upside there to overpay for him.

There's also by literally EVERY indication, that like Jennings, Henderson believes he is worth way more then other teams think and likely won't sign a "fair" offer sheet because of it.

Good free agents that are willing to accept fair, or slightly above fair deals, usually get paid pretty easily. Gerald Henderson isn't exactly above an average player, playing on one of the worst teams in NBA history and wants to be paid $8 million a year.

[gaspar]

Jennings is better than Chalmers IMHO

Better than Dragic, Chalmers, Nelson, and Burke IMO. The rest is pretty accurate. Teague is also clearly better.

If Teague is clearly better than Jennings then Dragic is better too. Teague is Dragic's clone.

Dragic 14.7 pts, 7.4 ast, 3.1 reb, 1.6 stl, 0.3 blk, 2.8 tov, .540 TS%, 17.5 PER, .106 WS/48
Teague 14.6 pts, 7.2 ast, 2.3 reb, 1.5 stl, 0.4 blk, 2.9 tov, .543 TS%, 16.8 PER, .111 WS/48

[MrPerfect1]

Dragic also played with much less talent around him. I think Dragic > Teague > Jennings. Teague though is 2 years younger than Dragic so I can understand why some prefer him

[Baddy Chuck]

Here's how I would break it down.

Starters I think are better (you win more games with)
1. Paul
2. Rose
3. Westbrook
4. Parker
5. Irving
6. Williams
7. Curry
8. Wall
9. Lawson
10. Rondo
11. Holiday
12. Lillard
13. Rubio
14. Conley
15. Teague
16. Dragic
17. Lowry
18. Nash
19. Hill

Backups I think are better
1. Jack
2. Miller

Starters that I think are debatable
1. Lin
2. Vazquez
3. Calderon
4. Bledsoe (personally think he's clearly better, but isn't proven completely so I'll put him here)
5. Walker

Starters I think he's an upgrade over (winning games)
1. Knight
2. Felton
3. Chalmers
4. Nelson
5. MCW (only because he's completely unproven)
6. Burke (same as MCW)

I honestly think going into this season there are maybe two teams who would pay Jennings at/over say 4/$28, those being New York, who can't do it, and the Pistons who would be debatable but they seem really keen on making a playoff push and Dumars is a guy to take a risk on young unproven talent (CV, Gordon, Stuckey).

[blazza18]

Accurate breakdown right there.

[Garbs_7]

Good list Baddy, could haggle over a spot or two but all comes down to opinion, that's as accurate as you'll see. Depressing for a guy we thought at worst would be a top 10 pg for the next 7-8 years.

[Matches Malone]

I would add Reggie Jackson to the backups better than Jennings.

[Baddy Chuck]

I would add Reggie Jackson to the backups better than Jennings.

I'd bet towards that as well but that one is extremely debatable to the point where I wouldn't really feel right putting him on there. He really has only showcased himself in the playoffs, and Jennings has had a 10ish game stretch before as well that anyone would say was amazing.

I think there's a few shooting guards who would make just as good a point guard as Jennings as well, maybe I'll add them too.