Official #2 Pick Thread - Ford #7: Parker

[paulpressey25]

They haven't proven to possess a trained eye.

This type of thinking is over-rated because incompetent owners like Herb meddled.

Lasry has stared down Russian mafia figures playing poker. Edens has made billions while also climbing the Matterhorn. They both know hoops and the NBA. Again, this particular decision is so close, you don't need technical skill in trying to mine a gem, but rather analytical skill after looking at the huge blocks of knowledge that are already out there on these three prospects.

The only reason they didn't become John Hammond 30-years ago was because they didn't want to pay their dues for years and were likely also seeing it as a career where your advancement might be difficult if you weren't former jock. It wasn't because they weren't smart enough to make a reasoned decision re: Parker v. Wiggins v. Embiid

[[MIKE C]]

They haven't proven to possess a trained eye.

Again, this particular decision is so close, you don't need technical skill in trying to mine a gem, but rather analytical skill after looking at the huge blocks of knowledge that are already out there on these three prospects.

The only reason they didn't become John Hammond 30-years ago was because they didn't want to pay their dues for years and were likely also seeing it as a career where your advancement might be difficult if you weren't former jock. It wasn't because they weren't smart enough to make a reasoned decision re: Parker v. Wiggins v. Embiid

Then why do they have Parker over Wiggins when 54% of RealGMers say Wiggins should be the pick?

[JustinCredible]

Machu has my thoughts.

It isn't like Edens and Lasry are going to shunt the front office people aside and go rogue like Herb did at times.

L&E are going to expect to be briefed in massive detail by the basketball people. Massive briefing and summaries. But for this particular pick, they will make the call based on that information.

That said, the future of Hammond and Morway will depend on how detailed they are in their presentations and counsel to L&E over the next 30 days. Guys at the level of L&El will quickly grasp whether or not they are comfortable with the work product they receive.

And it is likely that they will compare the work product they get from Hammond with input from some NBA friends they have (David Robinson for example) as well.

Absolutely 100% spot on. Owners make top picks. They do so based on the collective knowledge of their GM and scouting staff. Hammond and company can pitch anything they like but it will have to make sense to these guys. Much like we can persuade each other to switch around out top 4 based on information provided. At the end of the day it is their call. As long as they are getting the knowledge around each prospect I don't see why they can't decide what one they want.

[Chuck Diesel]

I'm assuming Jabari Parker had a positive relationship with Coach Wojo at Duke. It might be nice for Parker to have his old coach in town and it would certainly benefit Wojo for Jabari to get to know his guys and play against them during the summer, as MU and Bucks players often do.

[Chuck Diesel]

Actually one of Jabari's old high school teammates (Steve Taylor Jr) plays for Marquette.

[AussieBuck]

The new owners have met and I assume had lengthy conversations with Hammonds. There's no way after talking to him they are going to let him make the pick. It's probably been a decade or so since either guy talked to a high level employee as unimpressive.

[Wise1]

It depends where you play Parker in the pros. If you play him at 4, he's going to be a face-up/dribble drive nightmare. If you play him at 3, he's sitting at around 6-9/240 with a good reach and even in the NBA not many SF are that size. Granted, the downfall here is that he's probably a defensive liability at both spots as well. That's why he's not going #1. But I honestly think he's going to be a major offensive mismatch. Either way, he will need to continue to develop his 3 point shot, as that is a needed weapon for any "elite" offensive player.

The reason you can argue Wiggins over him, is that Wiggins steps on the court being able to guard 2/3, and is not without offensive production on his side (the guy did average 20 ppg per 40 as a frosh). You are going to have to wait on his handle and shot consistency if you are expecting a NBA 20+ ppg guy, but the argument for taking him is maybe that it's easier to develop those skills than it is to gain the traits needed for Parker to improve defensively. And for me, NET impact is what it's about.

May be off here, but that's my take.

Very fair and balanced assessment. Given everything that you said here, I'd still go with Parker. I personally don't think handle is something that you improve on appreciably after playing HS and college ball. I think you're more likely to get better at things your innately good at or in an area that is tied to your physical or mental maturity. Jabari Parker could shoot 2000 three pointers a day in practice. I'd be willing to bet that he'd never come close to Ray Allen or Stephen Curry in that area. It's a special gift. In the same vein, not everyone can dribble that basketball like the top tier guys do. You can practice all you like, but its a gift imo.

So I think Parker will pan out as an average defender with Wiggins being an average ball handler.

[MrPerfect1]

I think when picking #2, you need someone with a Ceiling to be able to do something Elite in the League. If you look at the Best players:

Lebron: Elite TS% (60%+), Passing, and Defense
KD: Elite TS% (60%+)
CP3: Elite Passer + Very High TS % (58%)
Curry: Elite TS% (60%+) and Very good Passer
Blake: Very High TS% (58%) + Very Good Rebounder
Harden: Elite TS% (60%+)
Howard: Elite TS% (60%), Elite Rebounder, Elite Defense

-------------------------------------------

Where could Parker be Elite? I can't imagine him pulling off a TS% of 60%+, Elite Rebounding Passing, or Defense (LOL)

Wigging: Possibly Elite Defensive
Embiid: Possibly Elite TS%, Rebounding, and Defense
Exum: Possibly Elite Passing

[AussieBuck]

Parker can be an elite TS% guy IMO

[MrPerfect1]

If Parker can become a much better player than Melo and be a 60% TS player (Melo has never even posted a 57% and is under 55% for career), then I would be very ok with him.

[AussieBuck]

Melo's a clown. He has a great first step and has strength and size but he insists on shooting the crap out of long twos. Nobody not named Dirk is pulling that off at 60TS%.

[White+Purple]

Parker can be an elite TS% guy IMO

There's no body of evidence suggesting Parker plays well as an efficient #2 option.

I'm currently torn between my wariness of Parker and the impending need to focus on his upside once we draft him...

[MilTownBucks]

Was dead set on Wiggins the entire year but I chose Parker this time. Its just something in my gut, really.

For me its either Wiggins or Parker or bust. Do not care for Embiid at all on this team and really hope the Cavs select him.

[Profound23]

This would be so much easier if we just had the first four picks......

Exum
Wiggins
Gainnis
Parker
Embiid

With our luck, Smart or Gordon would go #5 and be the best player in the draft.

[PedroGrande]

Melo's a clown. He has a great first step and has strength and size but he insists on shooting the crap out of long twos. Nobody not named Dirk is pulling that off at 60TS%.

Man Dirk is so good (Nowitzki not Diggler)

[MrPerfect1]

They haven't proven to possess a trained eye.

This type of thinking is over-rated because incompetent owners like Herb meddled.

Lasry has stared down Russian mafia figures playing poker. Edens has made billions while also climbing the Matterhorn. They both know hoops and the NBA. Again, this particular decision is so close, you don't need technical skill in trying to mine a gem, but rather analytical skill after looking at the huge blocks of knowledge that are already out there on these three prospects.

The only reason they didn't become John Hammond 30-years ago was because they didn't want to pay their dues for years and were likely also seeing it as a career where your advancement might be difficult if you weren't former jock. It wasn't because they weren't smart enough to make a reasoned decision re: Parker v. Wiggins v. Embiid

I don't agree with this logic.

-The Poker and climbing the Matterhorn definitely have nothing to do with assessing Basketball ability

-College Statistics help but much, much more goes in to judging and assessing how they will translate to the NBA. For example, I suspect not many college stats would indicate Westbrook would be an NBA star

-Some people can succeed in multiple fields. However, I think you are underestimating the difference in skillsets. There is nothing to suggest that a smart Finance person would be equally as successful in an NBA Front Office. Sterling was a brilliant real estate investor, sure didn't help him become an astute talent evaluator. Dan Snyder and Jerry Jones are brilliant marketers but their meddling has crippled their teams, etc

[SkilesTheLimit]

ESBF mentioned Hammond would not be making the pick.

Props to PP for his call yesterday. He said no way the new owners were putting this in Bone's hands. They would be using all the information presented to them to make the choice.

[paulpressey25]

There is nothing to suggest that a smart Finance person would be equally as successful in an NBA Front Office.

I little disclaimer. In my career I've had the ability to interact with a number of sharp people, including team owners. If you peg these guys as "finance people" that isn't accurate. These guys are simply high-level entrepreneurs of the highest order. They could be finance people, but they are at a level where they have finance people working for them.

None of us have sat in a hypothetical room with Edens, Lasry, Jerry Jones, Dan Synder, Donald Sterling and Dan Gilbert, but I can guarantee that if any of you did, after 30 minutes you'd clearly be able to figure out which of those six are the smartest and most thoughtful.

What you will notice about our guys is that they have extreme emotional intelligence. They are able to sit back and assess whatever situation they are in, the personalities around them, and then act on that information and environment. Jones, Sterling, Gilbert and Synder do not have that restraint. Those four are loudmouths to the highest order, who have little regard for their environment at times when they interact in situations. That type of personality (Jones, Sterling, etc) can be extremely successful within a tight plane, but it only goes so far.

Our two guys may not be able to bring a contender to Milwaukee, or they may let hubris go to their heads in this role and make some stupid statements or moves down the road. But from everything I'm seeing, these are guys who are a cut above the Jerry Jones/Donald Sterling crowd.

Three years from now we are going to look back and say that Herb's single greatest move as Bucks owner was selling to these two particular individuals.

[Newz]

I think when picking #2, you need someone with a Ceiling to be able to do something Elite in the League. If you look at the Best players:

Lebron: Elite TS% (60%+), Passing, and Defense
KD: Elite TS% (60%+)
CP3: Elite Passer + Very High TS % (58%)
Curry: Elite TS% (60%+) and Very good Passer
Blake: Very High TS% (58%) + Very Good Rebounder
Harden: Elite TS% (60%+)
Howard: Elite TS% (60%), Elite Rebounder, Elite Defense

-------------------------------------------

Where could Parker be Elite? I can't imagine him pulling off a TS% of 60%+, Elite Rebounding Passing, or Defense (LOL)

Wigging: Possibly Elite Defensive
Embiid: Possibly Elite TS%, Rebounding, and Defense
Exum: Possibly Elite Passing

I'm not the biggest Parker fan in the world... but I think it's pretty crazy to say he couldn't pull off a TS% of 60%+. He can score from all over the court, he can handle the ball, he can run the break, he can get to the line... he can really do everything you need him to do in order to put the ball in the basket. The problem is more so if he can become reasonable on D or be good enough at distributing/boarding to make up for his lack of defense.

[ReasonablySober]

New interesting post on Gordon:

Conclusion

I am flipping my story from Gordon’s shot being a debilitating wart to one that is less bad than the warts displayed by other top prospects such as Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins. Given the volatile nature of shooting, I believe Gordon has the most upside of the trio. And I am not convinced that he has a lower median outcome than either, as spacing the floor is not a prerequisite to becoming a useful wing and neither Parker nor Wiggins are guaranteed to be starting caliber. It seems that there is a cognitive bias that being slightly above average shooters gives Wiggins and Parker a safeness to their draft stock, when in reality shooting is a) the most volatile trait and b) doesn’t guarantee offensive success on its own. Gordon can close the gap on the shooting discrepancy, but Wiggins will not catch Gordon in court vision or feel for the game and Parker will always lag in explosiveness and quickness that aid Gordon’s finishing and defense.

My preference is now to gamble on Gordon’s shot, as I have elevated him to #4 on my big board behind Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, and Marcus Smart.

Link.