OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto

[MickeyDavis]

I generally buy and hold...but I do have Roth IRA bombs when I have cash available. Bought some dip early this week. Probably early as there's more of a bottom to go, but a decent price point. Will see if there's another bottom I have one more bullet in the chamber with 2025 Roth to fire.

The shorting fund idea is interesting but if you're wrong, I'd assume you lose a bunch. Probably a decent gamble but you'll eventually get stung hard.

SQQQ was down over 50% last year. So it would have to go up 100% this year to get back to where it was on 1/1/24. It's up about 19% this year so far. Pretty wild swings. Right now today the S&P is up about 0.55%, SQQQ is down 2.24%. 2022 it gained over 70% but the 3 year period from 2022 through 2024 it was down 78.65%. Unless you can time the market, which many claim but few can do (and I can't) it's too risky for me.

[Kerb Hohl]

I generally buy and hold...but I do have Roth IRA bombs when I have cash available. Bought some dip early this week. Probably early as there's more of a bottom to go, but a decent price point. Will see if there's another bottom I have one more bullet in the chamber with 2025 Roth to fire.

The shorting fund idea is interesting but if you're wrong, I'd assume you lose a bunch. Probably a decent gamble but you'll eventually get stung hard.

SQQQ was down over 50% last year. So it would have to go up 100% this year to get back to where it was on 1/1/24. It's up about 19% this year so far. Pretty wild swings. Right now today the S&P is up about 0.55%, SQQQ is down 2.24%. 2022 it gained over 70% but the 3 year period from 2022 through 2024 it was down 78.65%. Unless you can time the market, which many claim but few can do (and I can't) it's too risky for me.

Right...so basically it's a nice tool for when you know the market is going down. With a little bit of hindsight (yes, the tariffs also meant we could see some of this coming), yes, SQQQ is a great short-term thing.

The moment they come to an agreement to drop them or the market decides, "actually, the tariffs are fine" - you will get kicked squarely in the dick very, very hard.

[MickeyDavis]

I generally buy and hold...but I do have Roth IRA bombs when I have cash available. Bought some dip early this week. Probably early as there's more of a bottom to go, but a decent price point. Will see if there's another bottom I have one more bullet in the chamber with 2025 Roth to fire.

The shorting fund idea is interesting but if you're wrong, I'd assume you lose a bunch. Probably a decent gamble but you'll eventually get stung hard.

SQQQ was down over 50% last year. So it would have to go up 100% this year to get back to where it was on 1/1/24. It's up about 19% this year so far. Pretty wild swings. Right now today the S&P is up about 0.55%, SQQQ is down 2.24%. 2022 it gained over 70% but the 3 year period from 2022 through 2024 it was down 78.65%. Unless you can time the market, which many claim but few can do (and I can't) it's too risky for me.

Right...so basically it's a nice tool for when you know the market is going down. With a little bit of hindsight (yes, the tariffs also meant we could see some of this coming), yes, SQQQ is a great short-term thing.

The moment they come to an agreement to drop them or the market decides, "actually, the tariffs are fine" - you will get kicked squarely in the dick very, very hard.

Definitely. And while that will happen, good luck trying to time when it will happen lol.

I fully funded my Roth for the year in January. In hindsight I probably should have held back some of it

[machu46]

Well this is fun.

[MickeyDavis]

I'm buying today. Not a lot, but some.

[Kerb Hohl]

I have some regret in buying a few days ago and not waiting for the true drop but I guess over the next few weeks/months maybe I have a bit more to throw in to buy.

[Be Here Now]

I have some regret in buying a few days ago and not waiting for the true drop but I guess over the next few weeks/months maybe I have a bit more to throw in to buy.

I would assume this drop is pricing in the tariffs being lifted in April. If not, we are going to have a lot of opportunities to buy.

[Profound23]

I have some regret in buying a few days ago and not waiting for the true drop but I guess over the next few weeks/months maybe I have a bit more to throw in to buy.

I still don't think we have seen the true drop yet.

Either way I cashed out some of my investments a few months ago for a down payment on an investment property. Was afraid of pulling that trigger, glad my wife is smarter than me as usual.

[JEIS]

Ummm. Stock market is tanking.

[MickeyDavis]

Yup, no surprise. As long as you don't need to sell anything it's ok. I have a couple of friends who always stay fully invested, very little cash on hand. Hopefully nothing comes up where they need cash. I hate giving investment advice, I'm far from an expert, so I never say anything. But having a cash cushion of 6-12-24 months, whatever you're comfortable with, is a no brainer. You never want to be in a position where you HAVE to sell.

[JEIS]

Yup, no surprise. As long as you don't need to sell anything it's ok. I have a couple of friends who always stay fully invested, very little cash on hand. Hopefully nothing comes up where they need cash. I hate giving investment advice, I'm far from an expert, so I never say anything. But having a cash cushion of 6-12-24 months, whatever you're comfortable with, is a no brainer. You never want to be in a position where you HAVE to sell.

Our boy Edens is not doing so hot (NFE) is down big this month.

[LUKE23]

I'm about 15 years out from retirement, so continuing with just monthly DCA into index funds and minor money into big dips of some individual stocks I like (LAC is one, that's my long-term hold). I am holding more cash/bonds than I normally do just in case, as I have no idea what this **** is going to do to my small business.

I still don't believe people should be selling their portfolios if they are 5+ years out from retirement. It just rarely, if ever works well and there is no way you will be able to correctly predict the bottom. Lump sum vs. DCA, lump sum wins 2/3 of the time, but I don't blame people for dipping their toes in slowly right now given that this is all self-inflicted and unprecedented.

[TroyD92]

Exact bottom are hard to predict but corrective ways arent. I think q3 is blow off top and we see a sharp corrective wave down into a bear market jmo

[Be Here Now]

I am holding more cash/bonds than I normally do just in case, as I have no idea what this **** is going to do to my small business.

I'm co-owner of a modest size auto sales and service center. Used wholesale prices have went way up in the past couple weeks. This will take a few weeks to bleed into the retail market. But right now people feel like they need to buy because the prices will most likely be higher next week. Which at this rate they absolutely will.

If wholesale prices increase again next week, it will be time to raise all of our current list prices. Not good.

[LUKE23]

I'm co-owner of a modest size auto sales and service center. Used wholesale prices have went way up in the past couple weeks. This will take a few weeks to bleed into the retail market. But right now people feel like they need to buy because the prices will most likely be higher next week. Which at this rate they absolutely will.

If wholesale prices increase again next week, it will be time to raise all of our current list prices. Not good.

I feel for you man, that sounds like it will be really tough to navigate. I own a wedding venue, and right now my biggest concern (beyond our normal expenses rising), is a bad job market paired with people having less disposable income due to spending more and thus forgoing or delaying getting married. Hell, I already have concerns just on the generational differences since we started. Definitely a roller coaster owning your own ****.

[LUKE23]

Also, if anyone wants to feel any better today, read this:

https://www.morningstar.com/economy/what-weve-learned-150-years-stock-market-crashes

[paulpressey25]

Hot take: this current market was damn pricey anyways. And back during 2008-09 I tried to market time my 401k. Didn’t work out. Would have been much better just sitting tight back then.

[Be Here Now]

I feel for you man, that sounds like it will be really tough to navigate. I own a wedding venue, and right now my biggest concern (beyond our normal expenses rising), is a bad job market paired with people having less disposable income due to spending more and thus forgoing or delaying getting married. Hell, I already have concerns just on the generational differences since we started. Definitely a roller coaster owning your own ****.

That's exactly it. We are most likely headed for stagflation which most of us non boomers have never been thru. I'm not necessarily scared of higher prices if the demand is there (like 2021). But I think the demand is gonna be weak as **** in like 2 months so I don't want to dive in at the higher prices. But I also need to have enough work for our long term employees.

[LUKE23]

That's exactly it. We are most likely headed for stagflation which most of us non boomers have never been thru. I'm not necessarily scared of higher prices if the demand is there (like 2021). But I think the demand is gonna be weak as **** in like 2 months so I don't want to dive in at the higher prices. But I also need to have enough work for our long term employees.

I feel the same, we are headed for high prices, low demand, low revenue, and thus, more layoffs/firings. **** earnings reports. One big bag of fun. I feel for you on the employee side. We only have part-time staff, and they only work if we have events. If you have full-time staff this will be a challenging era to navigate. Either way, I wish you the best of luck.

[Ayt]

I made out like a bandit last week betting a huge amount on SPXU and SQQQ on Monday to go along with what I already had put into those two previously. I drained most of my savings betting on a substantial drop with the impending tariff announcement. I have generally kept 20k+ in a high yield savings account as a "don't touch" amount over the last few years. I dropped that down to $800 on Monday.

I had also completely liquidated my portfolio a few months ago. If I remember correctly, I owned 24 different stocks at that point. I sold them all regardless of profit or loss (with some losses being substantial like AMD, Celsius, and OXY, around 30%). I was down a lot of money overall at that point YTD even though it had only been a few months. It made no sense to hold onto those positions when I could sell and make money elsewhere.

I saw a huge, almost guaranteed money making opportunity this past week, and it paid off. I didn't know how much the market would drop, but I knew it would, and so I was looking to profit. My portfolio on Monday consisted of 25% GLD and 75% SPXU and SQQQ split roughly evenly. GLD actually dropped last week, but SPXU and SQQQ skyrocketed.

I still think we aren't anywhere close to the bottom. I actually sold GLD and bought more of SPXU and SQQQ after hours on Friday because I think we are going to get retaliatory tariff announcements from the EU and Japan this coming week. All economic data about the US economy is a **** dumpster fire. I don't expect the stock market to crater next week, but I still expect it to drop another 2%+.

I think we can still expect another 20% drop overall long term. The effects of the tariffs and the government cuts is going to be catastrophic, and it hasn't even hit yet. 20% might be generous.