ATL - Trade Deadline 2/10/22

[MickeyDavis]

Our next 3 are very winnable (and also very losable with this team) before we face the Suns a week from tonight. The East is really bunched up.

[HurricaneKid]

You pay Ayton because he's awesome and guys like Biyombo and JaVale are gonna get targeted mercilessly in the playoffs. Did people just forget how he essentially shut down AD and Jokic in back-to-back series?

The Suns were +450 to win the Lakers series when AD pulled his groin.

Dunno if he gets credit for that (though he gets credit for his role in stopping Jokic).

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[HurricaneKid]

I totally agree with all the ASG reserves with the exception that I thought it was totally clear Jrue should have been in front of Middz in line.

Well that and Wiggins had no business in the game but that's not the coaches fault.

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[blazza18]

Kuminga is a freight train going to the rim. Once he slows down a bit I think he's going to be a special player.

[FlagsFlyForever]

Everyone hates on Wiggins but he’s lowkey on a HOF trajectory rn

I'm sorry, what? He's going to be 27 before his first all-star team, did nothing until joining Steph, and did nothing of note in his one year of college.

He's 27 and will finish the year around 12,000 points if he stays healthy. If he plays until he's 35 putting up similar numbers he'll probably finish top 50 all-time in scoring. He'll be in Joe Johnson territory. If he wins a ring and stays healthy he could have a decent chance of getting in. Not necessarily his fault he's played for terrible teams his entire career until this season but, yeah not the greatest resume yet.

Yes, it is.

[Ron Swanson]

I know it's probably blasphemous to say, but tell me where the lie is when I say Luka has basically evolved into Euro Westbrook.

I don't know. I see what you're getting at but it probably goes a bit too far with the negatives attached to it. He's still been winning at a very young age without another legit star to play with. RW always had at least one other. RW just does not have the insane court vision on O like Luka. While Luka's 3% isn't drastically better than RW I think we would all confidently say he's a better shooter. He shoots a high amount of difficult contested off dribble and step back 3s. RW is basically dared to shoot wide open 3s. That said, I am curious how Luka would adapt if he did have a better team around him, would he embrace moving the ball etc or still control so much. So there's where I agree and see how he might be going down the RW path too much. I was definitely having a similar complaint/frustration you're getting at here with how they played 4th Qs last year in the playoffs though. It was basically him dribble for 20 seconds then shoot a tough contested jumper.

I could see an argument too that he plays on O more similarly to LBJ (minus as much brute force driving to the hoop) in terms of controlling the ball so everything has to go through him, his incredible vision/awareness like LBJ, but which leads to everyone else standing around too much and watching him. And possibly not getting as much out of guys as they might be able to offer. Of course, Luka is no comparison to prime LBJ on D though.

So I guess in summary, yea I see what you mean but I also think his BBall IQ is drastically higher than RW that he could do much more if he had a different team/coach around him. but there is a big question on "if" he would do it or if he'd be stubborn ala RW.

FWIW, I don't expect this to be the version of Luka we see going forward in his career, but I also think it already kind of sticks a fork in all the outlandish "Bird, Magic, Lebron" trajectories that people were making after his 2nd season. Just goes to show that player growth/development isn't linear. I mean, it'd be insulting at this point to try and compare him to 22-year old CP3 or Kobe. I think he's just as talented as either guy obviously, but I also don't think I'd put Luka's work ethic in either of those dudes' stratospheres.

[JayMKE]

Wiggins can't hold Joe Johnson's jock let alone be a HOFer lmao, one of the most asinine things I ever read.

Luka has all the talent in the world but that can't buy you the heart and drive you need to be a Kobe/Lebron/Giannis/Bird/Magic/etc, same problem Harden had. If they actually cared like those other players they wouldn't be 20lbs overweight.

[sidney lanier]

Our next 3 are very winnable (and also very losable with this team) before we face the Suns a week from tonight. The East is really bunched up.

I know you remember, and others do as well, when a West Coast swing like this for the Bucks was take your lumps and limp home with a losing streak.

How we got from there to here, where it's reasonable to expect to win the next three, is still a little disorienting for me. But I like it.

[WeekapaugGroove]

My personal borderline HoF hill to die on is Shawn Marion. I think he was underappreciated while he played and belongs in. Hot take but I think he was the second best player on those Nash Suns teams. Amare got the hype because he was fun but Shawn was more important. Not that these are perfect stats but he's 38th all time in career VORP and 46th in career WS.

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[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Listening to LowePost and Nate Duncan and both shows were mentioning about teams holding back because of tax implications. I think Duncan (was last week so a little fuzzy) said the Sixers let some TPE expire and aren't planning on using the remaining ones.
Lowe mentioned Dinwiddie getting his games played bonus so that will impact any trade as both teams what to obviously stay under the tax. The interesting part is that there will be teams this summer not using the MLE because it will put them over the tax.

It will be interesting how the cap/tax move in the next couple years. Feels like there could be some FA steals as a lot of teams are maxed out if there isnt a huge bump due to revenue.

[sidney lanier]

My personal borderline HoF hill to die on is Shawn Marion. I think he was underappreciated while he played and belongs in. Hot take but I think he was the second best player on those Nash Suns teams. Amare got the hype because he was fun but Shawn was more important. Not that these are perfect stats but he's 38th all time in career VORP and 46th in career WS.

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Doesn't really have HOF numbers, but I agree he was always underappreciated. Even his Nike commercial made that point.

Watch on YouTube

[emunney]

Everyone hates on Wiggins but he’s lowkey on a HOF trajectory rn

I'm sorry, what? He's going to be 27 before his first all-star team, did nothing until joining Steph, and did nothing of note in his one year of college.

He's 27 and will finish the year around 12,000 points if he stays healthy. If he plays until he's 35 putting up similar numbers he'll probably finish top 50 all-time in scoring. He'll be in Joe Johnson territory. If he wins a ring and stays healthy he could have a decent chance of getting in. Not necessarily his fault he's played for terrible teams his entire career until this season but, yeah not the greatest resume yet.

This dude has never won as much a player of the week award and wouldn't have made his one all-star game if a K-Pop singer hadn't lobbied his legion fans to get him in. He's got no international resume. He did nothing in college. He's not on track for the HoF in any key.

[Ron Swanson]

Only recently did I figure out that the repeater tax doesn't trigger in consecutive years over the tax line, but rather if you're over the tax 3 times in 4 seasons. So essentially, we could have gone over the tax this year and next, re-signing PJ in the process, then have a boat load of expiring salary in 2023 to get below the tax if they see fit. I mean, IMO you do everything you can to maximize this current Giannis window in his age 27-30 seasons before the inevitable athletic decline but hey, not my money...

[Matches Malone]

Only recently did I figure out that the repeater tax doesn't trigger in consecutive years over the tax line, but rather if you're over the tax 3 times in 4 seasons.

Interesting. I didn't know that little wrinkle. I was under the belief you were with consecutive years.

I miss PJ

[WeekapaugGroove]

My personal borderline HoF hill to die on is Shawn Marion. I think he was underappreciated while he played and belongs in. Hot take but I think he was the second best player on those Nash Suns teams. Amare got the hype because he was fun but Shawn was more important. Not that these are perfect stats but he's 38th all time in career VORP and 46th in career WS.

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Doesn't really have HOF numbers, but I agree he was always underappreciated. Even his Nike commercial made that point.

Watch on YouTube

Maybe not scoring but he's 43rd all time in total rebounds, 21st all time in steals, 60th in blocks.

Where he gets screwed is individual awards like all star games, all NBA, and the most ridiculous is he was never all defense even though he absolutely deserved it some years.

I think he was born about 10 years too early, I think the modern NBA media and even fans would appreciate his game more now than we did when he played.

Hell even from a history of the game standpoint Shawn was one of the guys who ushered in the modern model of a PF. Plus while he was past his prime he was still one of the best players on that Mavs championship team.

Now I do get why some would disagree because he's not the typical candidate but I think that's what makes him a fun HoF debate.

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[fan230]

There maybe a trade today, a small one.

[MVP2110]

Only recently did I figure out that the repeater tax doesn't trigger in consecutive years over the tax line, but rather if you're over the tax 3 times in 4 seasons. So essentially, we could have gone over the tax this year and next, re-signing PJ in the process, then have a boat load of expiring salary in 2023 to get below the tax if they see fit. I mean, IMO you do everything you can to maximize this current Giannis window in his age 27-30 seasons before the inevitable athletic decline but hey, not my money...

We were over the tax last year. We're almost assuredly going to be a repeater tax team

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Only recently did I figure out that the repeater tax doesn't trigger in consecutive years over the tax line, but rather if you're over the tax 3 times in 4 seasons. So essentially, we could have gone over the tax this year and next, re-signing PJ in the process, then have a boat load of expiring salary in 2023 to get below the tax if they see fit. I mean, IMO you do everything you can to maximize this current Giannis window in his age 27-30 seasons before the inevitable athletic decline but hey, not my money...

I really need to improve my cap/tax knowledge*, but wasnt the issue more that we are so far over the cap? And that the clock on the repeater tax was just the extra poison?
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/milwaukee-bucks/cap/
It looks like we are $20m+ over the tax line as is.
https://hoopshype.com/2018/10/11/nba-luxury-tax/

And for teams $20,000,000 over the cap or above, the tax rate is $3.75 for every dollar over the cap, and increasing $0.50 for each additional $5,000,000 over $20,000,000.

So some of that PJ contract would be taxed at $4.25 (maybe not if we got rid of someone else?). You are talking 7m salary plus, $25m tax for a 37 year old with extreme offensive limitations. IDK if I was a rich hedge fund owner, I probably would rather blow $30m on yacht improvements or some NFTs.
And for repeaters:

And for teams $20,000,000 over the cap or above, the tax rate is $4.75 for every dollar over the cap, and increasing $0.50 for each additional $5,000,000 over $20,000,000.

I think where we really f-ed up is either the jeff teague signing or not sending a different salary out in the Holiday trade to ensure we stayed under. I think that pushed us over and will cost tens of millions.

*Not really, in no way will society or those close to me benefit if I spend even more time looking into this.

[tedbrogen]

Only recently did I figure out that the repeater tax doesn't trigger in consecutive years over the tax line, but rather if you're over the tax 3 times in 4 seasons. So essentially, we could have gone over the tax this year and next, re-signing PJ in the process, then have a boat load of expiring salary in 2023 to get below the tax if they see fit. I mean, IMO you do everything you can to maximize this current Giannis window in his age 27-30 seasons before the inevitable athletic decline but hey, not my money...

We were over the tax last year. We're almost assuredly going to be a repeater tax team

Yep. Jrue’s bonus put them over last season so next season is year 3 and puts them in repeater. With them extending Grayson and talking about wanting to keep DDV, I can see why they let PJ walk if he demanded a guaranteed second year.

[Ron Swanson]

You guys forget that you're deemed over the tax line only if your payroll is as such at the end of the season. So yeah, you could have still re-signed PJ and loaded up for the title defense. Then if it doesn't work out, you have around anywhere from $20-30 million in expiring salary to offload before the 2023 February deadline between Brook + PJ + Hill. Yes, we all understand that the tax is a very real factor in these decisions, but there's definitely a way they could have avoided the repeater stuff even while spending big this offseason. So the excuses to me are just that.