Official #2 Pick Thread - Ford #7: Parker

[jakecronus8]

Luke, you're right. It's the back combined with the fact that I think Embiid got a little too much hype. My biggest worry is I've seen the young big man with injury concerns movie before, and I can't think of one instance where it was a happy ending.

I'm gonna be positive though. I say all three of the top prospects hit their potential upsides. Embiid becomes Hakeem, Parker becomes likable Carmelo, and Wiggins becomes Kobe. Twenty years ago, I take Embiid. This day and age, I take Kobe.

[LUKE23]

I don't think we can use hype to continue to rank Wiggins as the top guy though. What happened during the season? How does each player project to impact the pro game? I mean, Wiggins was the most hyped and projected #1 based on his high school stuff. That is true. But what happens in the first year of college matters a lot more.

I mean, I get the back concerns, even though I think they are drastically overblown and people are worriers in general because of past bigs. I think each big needs to be evaluated individually in terms of injury risk though. Don't group them together. How does this prospect's risk rate?

[Licensed to Il]

The closer the draft gets, and the more divided this board gets, I continue to be excited about any of the top three guys (Embiid, Parker, Wiggins) and if management truly felt that Exum was the guy to take at #2 I could be happy with that as well.

[europa]

I think each big needs to be evaluated individually in terms of injury risk though. Don't group them together. How does this prospect's risk rate?

In my mind, the risk with Embiid is off the charts enormous. A pre-existing back injury for a big man scares the bejeesus out of me.

[ReasonablySober]

I think it's interesting that people today call it a wing's league or a point guard league or a perimeter league or whatever. But Melo's not having the success he had that one year in NY without Chandler. The heat don't win a thing without Bosh at the five. The Pacers went in the tank when Hibbert forgot how to play basketball. The Bulls had the NBA's best defense and were 14 over .500 because Noah is the best big man on the planet.

Kobe had his best individual year when they were 3rd in the Pacific and lost in the first round. The following year was another huge one and Kobe averaged 31/5/5. They were .500 and lost in the first. The added Pau the following season and they made the Finals.

In today's NBA you still need really awesome bigs.

[jakecronus8]

I don't think we can use hype to continue to rank Wiggins as the top guy though. What happened during the season? How does each player project to impact the pro game? I mean, Wiggins was the most hyped and projected #1 based on his high school stuff. That is true. But what happens in the first year of college matters a lot more.

I mean, I get the back concerns, even though I think they are drastically overblown and people are worriers in general because of past bigs. I think each big needs to be evaluated individually in terms of injury risk though. Don't group them together. How does this prospect's risk rate?

I understand you never wanna lump prospects together. It's just terrifying to think about.

The other day I was trying to think of a young big man coming into league that already had injury concerns, that didn't end up having huge injury issues in the league. I couldn't think of any. Not a single one. I hope someone here can give me some examples because if not, Embiid, as many have alluded to, is a ticking time bomb.

[ReasonablySober]

Do people forget that Embiid was set to play the following week had Kansas advanced?

[europa]

I'll also add that reconstructing the roster does not enter into the equation for me at all. This team sucks. There isn't a single player I'm married to long-term. I like a few but the whole damn team can be blown up in my opinion. So that's not a factor at all for me on who I like. Again, I won't complain with any of the Top 3 if that's who the Bucks end up taking. But one of them will make me drink more than the others, that's for sure.

[averageposter]

Here is what scares me about Embiid. If that back is zero problem at all. Why is it that it isn't being screamed from the rooftops? Cleveland has #1, Bucks #2, Philly #3, Orlando #4 and The Jazz 5th. If it were simply trying to manipulate where you go, how far are you willing to take that 6th to Boston, 7th to the Lakers. I don't personally think anyone would value LA at 7 more than being the #1 overall. Granted, details seem pretty quiet on all these top prospects workouts I guess, but often these perceived lingering injury type things have such a major not a big deal PR campaigns in years past that the lack of it here seems weird.

[Ron Swanson]

I don't even get how Wiggins is the more exciting pick. He's the local sports guy's draft pick. He's the pick if you're paying attention to the draft for two weeks out of the year and you casually hear "Riggin' For Wiggins" or you watch one Kansas game and you hear about the #1 recruit and likely top draft choice.

If you're paying attention to the guys who actually know something about the draft, the choice has been Embiid for six months.

This. Barring the already overstated injury concerns, I view Embiid nearly in the same category as Anthony Davis was as a prospect. Elite athleticism for his size, natural passer and ball handler, great footwork and agility, etc. The guy has the body of a 7' center and the ball skills of a point forward.

The divide between Embiid and Wiggins is about as big as the divide between Wiggins and Parker for me. I just don't see many educated basketball minds that have Parker or Wiggins above Embiid. The injury concerns aren't serious enough to validate dropping him unless the talents are relatively equal. And I don't see Wiggins, Exum, or Parker as being "relatively equal talents" to Embiid.

[jakecronus8]

I think it's interesting that people today call it a wing's league or a point guard league or a perimeter league or whatever. But Melo's not having the success he had that one year in NY without Chandler. The heat don't win a thing without Bosh at the five. The Pacers went in the tank when Hibbert forgot how to play basketball. The Bulls had the NBA's best defense and were 14 over .500 because Noah is the best big man on the planet.

Kobe had his best individual year when they were 3rd in the Pacific and lost in the first round. The following year was another huge one and Kobe averaged 31/5/5. They were .500 and lost in the first. The added Pau the following season and they made the Finals.

In today's NBA you still need really awesome bigs.

I disagree that you need really awesome bigs. Good ones yes. The ones you named I would consider very good however, (save for Noah). I think Sanders can be our guy still.

[jakecronus8]

I may be wrong here, but didn't embiid have other concerns as well. I can't remember specifically, but I want to say hip and/or shoulder issues.

[MiltownHawkeye]

Luke, you're right. It's the back combined with the fact that I think Embiid got a little too much hype. My biggest worry is I've seen the young big man with injury concerns movie before, and I can't think of one instance where it was a happy ending.

I have so many questions about statements like this. How big is this sample size of big men with injuries in college that turned out to be heavily injured in the pros? What type of injuries did they have and how severe were they? How many big men had injury concerns that have been mostly forgotten over time during their NBA careers? Is Andre Drummond, who had the same concerns, doomed to an injured career despite playing 60 games his first year and 81 in his second? Is it the end of the world if we have a dominant center that misses stretches of games here and there, like most starting centers do to some extent anyway?

[jakecronus8]

Off the top of my head, Sampson, Bowie, Walton, Oden, Yao, Ilgauskas, Bogut. I'm sure there's more.

[emunney]

Ilgauskas is not a good example. He recovered from early foot injuries to have a long and consistent career. How about Lopez? Of course, guys like Lopez and Bogut had shown no proclivity to injuries in college.

[Badgerlander]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/476399377179627520[/tweet]

new thread?

[europa]

Off the top of my head, Sampson, Bowie, Walton, Oden, Yao, Ilgauskas, Bogut. I'm sure there's more.

There are. The last two Bucks centers (Bogut and Sanders) have had back injuries. And neither one of them entered the league with a pre-existing injury.

As far as who "educated basketball minds" like, most of them had Wiggins No. 1 for nearly two years. Again, I don't think it would be a shock at all if he regained the top spot. I also think it's a major reach to start labeling people as stupid or uneducated if they like Wiggins more.

[emunney]

We could also talk about wing players with early declines like Bird, Roy, McGrady, Hardaway, Hill, etc. Relative to the rest of humanity, these guys are all 'bigs'.

[Badgerlander]

2 Jabari Parker Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks appear to be intrigued with all four players here: Embiid, Parker, Wiggins and Australian point guard Dante Exum.

If Embiid goes No. 1, I think Parker will likely get the nod here. While new ownership has made it clear that they are OK with GM John Hammond fully engaging the rebuilding process, the reality is that the team needs to draft a player who can help now. Parker is the most NBA ready of the group and gives them a go to scorer who likely would be slotted to play the 4 between Larry Sanders and Giannis Antetokoumnpo.

If Parker isn't on the board, Embiid has intrigued the team for a while. Given his offensive prowess (and Sanders utter lack thereof) they feel he's a good fit. Of course, as the Bucks keep breaking down tape, they keep getting more excited about Wiggins. They fly to Santa Barbara, Calif., this week to watch Wiggins workout. It will be interesting to see if that sells the Bucks on him. Exum is the wild card. The team gets him in for a workout this weekend. They'd really like to upgrade the point and move Brandon Knight to the 2. If Exum wows in the workout, he could move to the top of their board. i think he fits their biggest need.

[buckboy]

I don't even get how Wiggins is the more exciting pick. He's the local sports guy's draft pick. He's the pick if you're paying attention to the draft for two weeks out of the year and you casually hear "Riggin' For Wiggins" or you watch one Kansas game and you hear about the #1 recruit and likely top draft choice.

If you're paying attention to the guys who actually know something about the draft, the choice has been Embiid for six months.

Are those the same guys that said Oden was better than Durant?

It's possible they're wrong.