Draft Exum at #2?

[breakchains]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDlNjKE9M30&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nw4yuJogKCw&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[Wooderson]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMAhDKEo9wM[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zE77XNg9qIw[/youtube]

Serbia game isn't full, but it captures the good and bad.

I wish the full Russia game was online, it's the only one I was able to watch last year and he was destroying them with penetration.

[JustinCredible]

Awesome thanks guys! Any insight on competition level? It was great having the Greece guy last year tell us the difference between Giannis' leagues in his games.

Right now I am good drafting any of the top 4 except for Exum, but that is just because I haven't seen enough. I wanted to do some research to hopefully be happy with him as well.

Thanks again

[cinematographer]

Exum and Giannis could get us into the bonus in one possession.

[Wooderson]

Depends on the team. Spain, Lithuania, and especially Serbia (played twice), were very good. Serbia kept it close against the US team who was blowing everyone else out (Smart/Gordon/Payton/Stokes/Okafor/Frazier/Harrel/Sulaimon). Micic, the player Exum was matched up with much of the time, could be in the NBA.

I'd say those three could be tournament teams, or maybe bubble teams, hard to project. And Exum did have his 3 best performances against them, which were all in the medal round.

27.3/4.7/4.3 on a 55.5 TS%, got to the FT line 36 times in those 3 games.

Against the USA he only played 11 minutes as they were getting killed. He did have 7 points on 2-3 FG, 2-4 FT but along with that 4 TO's so presumably struggled some.

Some of the other teams he faced were considerably weaker. Though also important to note that his teammates weren't of the highest quality either (see plays at 10:25, 13:55, and 16:24 in the video against Serbia).

[MadBlueEdwards]

Am I the only one who doesn't understand ANY of that?

A higher R² is a higher correlation. For the purposes of this, the higher the R², the more likely it is a player's collegiate production/score/what have you in a various metric will translate -- "explain" -- his pro production/score/whathaveyou in a various metric.

A 0 indicates zero explanation. A 1 indicates absolute explanation. We could delve into "bias", too, but remember correlation does NOT equal causation. Think of this as a good starting point. If a player is an above-average rebounder in college, more times than not he'll be a productive rebounder in the NBA.

Thanks for the help. So, correct me if I'm wrong here...Are these numbers telling us that a player's rebounds, assists, and blocks, in college are more than likely going to be similar at the pro level while field goal percentages are often pretty different?

Also, if you don't mind, can you explain what the different column headings (Estimate, Std. Error, t value, and Pr(<|t|)) indicate?

[JustinCredible]

So I have only watched the 1st quarter of his school's gold medal game and the first quarter against Spain so far. He is putting up a fair amount of points in each game. So far my takeaways:

- He draws a lot of fouls in transition (most before he even has a chance to finish so it is hard to tell how great of a finisher he is in transition but at least he is drawing fouls)

- When not in transition he settles for a TON of jumpshots. He hoists them up. This concerns me for somebody that is suppose to be quick and be able to get to his spots.

Obviously only have snapshots so far but I don't see passing on Wiggins for this kid as of yet.

[White+Purple]

Thanks for the help. So, correct me if I'm wrong here...Are these numbers telling us that a player's rebounds, assists, and blocks, in college are more than likely going to be similar at the pro level while field goal percentages are often pretty different?

Also, if you don't mind, can you explain what the different column headings (Estimate, Std. Error, t value, and Pr(<|t|)) indicate?

Correct. Rebounds, blocks and assists will normally translate, fouls and steals significantly less so, while points, free throws and turnovers don't regularly translate and efficiency and three point shooting are far more influenced by other factors than college production. Some of that fits what common perception is (rebs, TOs) but some is really suprising.

[smauss]

http://www.brewhoop.com/2014/5/6/568567 ... oel-embiid

Has anyone looked at the math used by the guy linked to in the article, Vashro? The statistical correlations are far more concrete but his predictions are almost as interesting:

Fap fap fap.

And the predictions:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv? ... alse&gid=8

Really interesting data and conclusions. Confirmed what my eyes and instinct told me about Smart and Embiid, and on the negative side about Wiggins. Don't know much about Aaron Gordon but was shocked by the results/predictions for him. Really enjoyed the link to the spreadsheet and looking at the data and conclusions in different ways.

[White+Purple]

Really interesting data and conclusions. Confirmed what my eyes and instinct told me about Smart and Embiid, and on the negative side about Wiggins. Don't know much about Aaron Gordon but was shocked by the results/predictions for him. Really enjoyed the link to the spreadsheet and looking at the data and conclusions in different ways.

I guess if Gordon and Smart learn to shoot well they become entirely different players. What was interesting for me is that a bunch of guys this board is high on (Anderson, Adams, Payton) are high on his list too.

[smauss]

Really interesting data and conclusions. Confirmed what my eyes and instinct told me about Smart and Embiid, and on the negative side about Wiggins. Don't know much about Aaron Gordon but was shocked by the results/predictions for him. Really enjoyed the link to the spreadsheet and looking at the data and conclusions in different ways.

I guess if Gordon and Smart learn to shoot well they become entirely different players. What was interesting for me is that a bunch of guys this board is high on (Anderson, Adams, Payton) are high on his list too.

Yeah, I almost added Anderson to my last post about Gordon.

[Nowak008]

I guess if Gordon and Smart learn to shoot well they become entirely different players. What was interesting for me is that a bunch of guys this board is high on (Anderson, Adams, Payton) are high on his list too.

If Smart learns to shoot, he is a top 10 player in the league IMO.

[Badgerlander]

I guess if Gordon and Smart learn to shoot well they become entirely different players. What was interesting for me is that a bunch of guys this board is high on (Anderson, Adams, Payton) are high on his list too.

If Smart learns to shoot, he is a top 10 player in the league IMO.

and improves his handle, crossover, first step, and finishing ability?

[White+Purple]

I guess if Gordon and Smart learn to shoot well they become entirely different players. What was interesting for me is that a bunch of guys this board is high on (Anderson, Adams, Payton) are high on his list too.

If Smart learns to shoot, he is a top 10 player in the league IMO.

If Gordon learns to shoot he'll be a **** stud.

[PkrsBcksGphsMqt]

I guess if Gordon and Smart learn to shoot well they become entirely different players. What was interesting for me is that a bunch of guys this board is high on (Anderson, Adams, Payton) are high on his list too.

If Smart learns to shoot, he is a top 10 player in the league IMO.

If Gordon learns to shoot he'll be a **** stud.

If Gordon learns to shoot, he could be the best PF in the league. That's a huge if, but he has all of the tools.

[White+Purple]

If Gordon learns to shoot, he could be the best PF in the league. That's a huge if, but he has all of the tools.

Not to mention a top SF.
Does anyone have data on the number of players who had terrible FT% in college and developed a jumper?
Relevant to Exum too.

[Nowak008]

and improves his handle, crossover, first step, and finishing ability?

That gif is so overplayed. First of all, his teammate sets a terrible pick there, and even though he turns the ball over, you can see how aggressive Smart is getting into the lane. He doesn't have the tightest handle, but it was good enough to get to the line 8.1 times per game and dish out 4.8 assists.

[Badgerlander]

I think thats why Gordon will go ahead of Randle and Vonmeh

[Badgerlander]

and improves his handle, crossover, first step, and finishing ability?

That gif is so overplayed. First of all, his teammate sets a terrible pick there, and even though he turns the ball over, you can see how aggressive Smart is getting into the lane. He doesn't have the tightest handle, but it was good enough to get to the line 8.1 times per game and dish out 4.8 assists.

Yeah, just saying that I think Smart has a lot more to improve on than just his shooting to be a top 10 player. I like him and all but...

[White+Purple]

I think thats why Gordon will go ahead of Randle and Vonmeh

I don't know. Without the J what's left? Tweener D and good ballhandling against collapsing defenses?