ATL: The 2019-20 Season Has Begun

Bucksfan28 · Post #1941 » by **Bucksfan28** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 4:49 pm

They've played an easy schedule with a lot of home games, but this is about the best start that LAL could've hoped for. LeBron not conceding his best player in the world crown just yet, and I think -right now- Giannis is the only one challenging him for that.

machu46 · Post #1942 » by **machu46** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:36 pm

Wasn't really sure if this is the right spot for a post like this, but:

Fascinating article for The Athletic subscribers:

https://theathletic.com/1360529/2019/11/20/hollinger-the-three-shot-foul-is-a-bad-rule-badly-enforced-with-bad-side-effects-it-needs-to-go/

TLDR:

Hollinger proposes that the NBA gives two free throws to shooters that are fouled on a 3 point attempt for the first 46 minutes of the game. The last two minutes of the game, when the rules change in a lot of other areas, shooters can start getting 3 free throws to avoid incentivizing intentional fouls. The reasons for this:

1. A 3 point foul is four times more valuable than a regular 3 point shot, while a 2 point foul is basically worth the same amount as a regular 2 point shot. A 3 point foul's expected points added is actually greater than that of a flagrant foul (where the shooter gets two shots and possession of the ball to potentially score again).

2. The fact that a 3 point foul is so insanely valuable inspires shooters to attempt shots they would never otherwise attempt.

3. The 3 point foul, coupled with the league's emphasis on protecting shooters, has led to shooters risking injury on jumpers more than it ever was back when defenders would sometimes slide under the shooter's feet.

4. Due to where refs are trained to stand, they aren't able to be in position to identify shooters that are sticking their legs out on shots, so refs get the call wrong most of the time to begin with.

5. The 3 point foul incentivizes all teams to play basically the same way, chucking up 3's every possession. Reducing it a 2 point foul would create a higher likelihood of the return of the mid-range jumper for example.

Turk Nowitzki · Post #1943 » by **Turk Nowitzki** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:38 pm

I kind of love everything about that idea.

MikeIsGood · Post #1944 » by **MikeIsGood** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:43 pm

That would be amazing and they will never do it.

Ron Swanson · Post #1945 » by **Ron Swanson** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:48 pm

I don't think anyone was ready to jump the gun and say that Lebron was no longer a Top-5 player (I know I wasn't) based on last season, but I said it before this season even started, that there was gonna be a lot of dumb confirmation bias when the Lakers inevitably look good and win a bunch of games with Lebron playing well. Yeah, give the Lakers another Top-5 superstar, one of the best 3&D wings in the league, and a bunch of solid veteran role-players, and *shocker*, they're a good basketball team and Lebron is great again. If/when they fall short of a championship, the same old tired clichés and excuses will flare up again. Rinse repeat.

xTitan · Post #1946 » by **xTitan** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:11 pm

I’m confused is a mid range jump shot more exciting than a 3 point shot?

machu46 · Post #1947 » by **machu46** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:13 pm

xTitan wrote:I’m confused is a mid range jump shot more exciting than a 3 point shot?

I think Hollinger's argument is more "Getting 3 free throws makes no **** sense mathematically, and in addition, it would also potentially create more diverse offenses than simply the 3 pointers and dunks offenses that everyone employs today." But the math part of it is the main thing he cares about.

Turk Nowitzki · Post #1948 » by **Turk Nowitzki** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:19 pm

machu46 wrote:
xTitan wrote:I’m confused is a mid range jump shot more exciting than a 3 point shot?

I think Hollinger's argument is more "Getting 3 free throws makes no **** sense mathematically, and in addition, it would also potentially create more diverse offenses than simply the 3 pointers and dunks offenses that everyone employs today." But the math part of it is the main thing he cares about.

I don't think it would do much to change the way teams run their offenses but in addition to the math it would stop incentivizing some of the leg kick/flopping BS that guys like Harden constantly do to try and draw a 3 shot foul. Just closing a dumb hoophole basically.

Bucksfan28 · Post #1949 » by **Bucksfan28** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:22 pm

Lets not act like there wasnt heavy skepticism about the Lakers before the season and even after opening night. Every natl media member and their mom ran with the "LeBron is so disengaged during the RS" narrative.

Post #1950 » by **ReasonablySober** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:42 pm

Tonight we finally get Kawhi and George on the court together and it's against the Celtics. On ESPN and as soon as the Bucks game is over I'll be flipping to it.

Bucksfan28 · Post #1951 » by **Bucksfan28** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:15 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:Tonight we finally get Kawhi and George on the court together and it's against the Celtics. On ESPN and as soon as the Bucks game is over I'll be flipping to it.

An outcome where Tatum/Brown outplay Kawhi/PG and the Celts win would be funny. Celtic Nation would lose their minds and Simmons (assuming he'll be there) would put up an emergency pod about how this is their year.

Post #1952 » by **MickeyDavis** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:29 pm

Read on Twitter

LuessiT · Post #1953 » by **LuessiT** » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:16 am

Simmons just hit his first 3.

TD75 · Post #1954 » by **TD75** » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:18 am

LuessiT wrote:Simmons just hit his first 3.

Congratulations I guess. Can't wait for the overreactions :lol:

Plossum · Post #1955 » by **Plossum** » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:23 am

Unleash the Curry, Ben.

blazza18 · Post #1956 » by **blazza18** » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:27 am

The Philly play by play guy went to cream city after Simmons hit it. Was gross.

DrWood · Post #1957 » by **DrWood** » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:28 am

machu46 wrote:1. A 3 point foul is four times more valuable than a regular 3 point shot, while a 2 point foul is basically worth the same amount as a regular 2 point shot. A 3 point foul's expected points added is actually greater than that of a flagrant foul (where the shooter gets two shots and possession of the ball to potentially score again).

What? A 3 point foul has an expectation of about 2.3 points whereas a 3 point shot has an expectation of about 1.1 points, going by median team shooting percentages for both. In addition, there is about a 5% chance to get a rebound off the (last) foul shot and about a 15% chance to get a rebound off the 3 point shot. Those are back of the envelope figures, but a 3 point foul is worth about twice a 3 point shot, not 4 times. I'm not sure how a made shot and foul should be figured into this.

DrWood · Post #1958 » by **DrWood** » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:29 am

xTitan wrote:I’m confused is a mid range jump shot more exciting than a 3 point shot?

If you're Demar Derozen, yeah.

StickeeFingaz · Post #1959 » by **StickeeFingaz** » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:30 am

TD75 wrote:
LuessiT wrote:Simmons just hit his first 3.

Congratulations I guess. Can't wait for the overreactions

Rachel Nichols on The Jump tomorrow: "Is Simmons better than Giannis now?"

machu46 · Post #1960 » by **machu46** » Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:24 am

DrWood wrote:
machu46 wrote:1. A 3 point foul is four times more valuable than a regular 3 point shot, while a 2 point foul is basically worth the same amount as a regular 2 point shot. A 3 point foul's expected points added is actually greater than that of a flagrant foul (where the shooter gets two shots and possession of the ball to potentially score again).

What? A 3 point foul has an expectation of about 2.3 points whereas a 3 point shot has an expectation of about 1.1 points, going by median team shooting percentages for both. In addition, there is about a 5% chance to get a rebound off the (last) foul shot and about a 15% chance to get a rebound off the 3 point shot. Those are back of the envelope figures, but a 3 point foul is worth about twice a 3 point shot, not 4 times. I'm not sure how a made shot and foul should be figured into this.

Yeah sorry I messed that part up. His point was that the marginal value of a 3 shot foul is 4 times greater than that of a 2 shot foul and 11 times greater than a 3 point shot.

Edit: marginal value meaning the difference between it and an average possession. For example, a 2 point shot is worth 1.17 points versus an average possession being 1.10, so the marginal value is 0.07.

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