RealGM Bucks board Draft project (Top Five picks)

Ron Swanson · Post #21 » by **Ron Swanson** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 5:27 pm

TwentyOne920 wrote:
Ron Swanson wrote:I'm also always surprised to see how many #2 overall selections have busted in the last decade. Okafor, Beasley, Turner, Thabeet, Marvin Williams, Derrick Williams, Darko (just off the top of my head). The 2nd pick just seems to be an unlucky draft position as of late.

That's because in most cases the clear cut top player is off the board and the second-tier prospects are up. They tend to go for potential or need despite the red flags.

Doesn't really explain why the 3, 4, 5 and 9 spots have more all-star selections though. Playing the numbers game and taking into account the last 20 years, you have a way better shot at landing a superstar with the 5th pick (Wade, Garnett, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, Kevin Love) than you do with the 2nd pick (Durant, Jason Kidd, ???).

I don't think there's anything to it other than coincidence and luck, but it's just one of those weird trends that can't really be explained.

emunney · Post #22 » by **emunney** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 5:41 pm

It's a fluke, Swanson. Same reason 57 has more AS appearances than 12.

It's also crazy that the #7 slot has produced only 1 all-star since 1991 (Rip Hamilton), compared to 7 for the #9. Anomaly.

emunney · Post #23 » by **emunney** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 5:47 pm

Also: 1 for the 14 (Peja) and 1 for the 15 (Nash). Noteworthy since those are the picks we're talking up as our cornerstones.

Post #24 » by **paulpressey25** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 6:02 pm

KidA24 wrote:
I'll head into doing ALL-NBA team stuff.

If you can do guys who made 2x all nba (either first, second or third team) that would be great.

Emunney--can you list all the guys with the number of all star appearances?

FYI: I deleted GoS post bitching about how all-stars won't stay here. We can get into analysis once we get all the data and names. Actually once we have the names of the all-stars and all NBA team players, he can do an analysis of the average tenure with the team that drafted them so we can put real data to this versus anecdotal rants.

KidA24 · Post #25 » by **KidA24** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 6:11 pm

Here's the list. I don't think I missed anyone.
EDIT: If you want to paste into Excel, you can use paste special, paste as unicode, and it will format correctly.

Second edit, and brief analysis: top 5 picks: 138 times, total, on the first 3 teams. Above top 5, 65 total. 26 of those between Dirk and Kobe.

Name All NBA Apps Draft Position
Allen Iverson 7 1
Alonzo Mourning 2 2
Amar'e Stoudemire 5 9
Anfernee Hardaway 3 3
Ben Wallace 5 Not Drafted
Brandon Roy 2 6
Carmelo Anthony 5 3
Chauncey Billups 3 3
Chris Paul 4 4
Chris Webber 5 1
Deron Williams 2 3
Dikembe Mutombo 3 4
Dirk Nowitzki 12 9
Dwight Howard 6 1
Dwyane Wade 7 5
Gary Payton 9 2
Gilbert Arenas 3 30
Grant Hill 5 3
Jason Kidd 6 2
Jermaine O'Neal 3 17
Kevin Durant 3 2
Kevin Garnett 10 5
Kobe Bryant 14 13
LeBron James 8 1
Manu Ginobili 2 57
Pau Gasol 3 3
Paul Pierce 4 10
Ray Allen 2 5
Russell Westbrook 2 4
Shaquille O'Neal 14 1
Stephon Marbury 2 3
Steve Nash 7 15
Tim Duncan 13 1
Tony Parker 2 28
Tracy McGrady 7 9
Vin Baker 2 8
Vince Carter 2 5
Yao Ming 5 1

Baddy Chuck · Post #26 » by **Baddy Chuck** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 6:18 pm

KidA24 wrote:Amar'e Stoudemire 5 9
Ben Wallace 5 Not Drafted
Dirk Nowitzki 12 9
Gilbert Arenas 3 30
Jermaine O'Neal 3 17
Kobe Bryant 14 13
Manu Ginobili 2 57
Paul Pierce 4 10
Steve Nash 7 15
Tony Parker 2 28
Tracy McGrady 7 9

Going to be even harder now out of that say top 5 with the one year out of high school rule, that type of talent is going to be few and far between at 9+++.

Post #27 » by **paulpressey25** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 6:33 pm

KidA24 wrote:Here's the list. I don't think I missed anyone.
EDIT: If you want to paste into Excel, you can use paste special, paste as unicode, and it will format correctly.

Can one of you guys take his list and load it into excel to where it can be pasted back in here in an easier data format?

Ron Swanson · Post #28 » by **Ron Swanson** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 6:37 pm

Baddy Chuck wrote:
KidA24 wrote:Amar'e Stoudemire 5 9
Ben Wallace 5 Not Drafted
Dirk Nowitzki 12 9
Gilbert Arenas 3 30
Jermaine O'Neal 3 17
Kobe Bryant 14 13
Manu Ginobili 2 57
Paul Pierce 4 10
Steve Nash 7 15
Tony Parker 2 28
Tracy McGrady 7 9

Going to be even harder now out of that say top 5 with the one year out of high school rule, that type of talent is going to be few and far between at 9+++.

True, but I'd point out that 3 of those 4 guys didn't show much if anything at all their first couple years in the league. They would have had to put up astronomical numbers in one season of college ball for it to have dramatically changed their draft position. I don't think the "one and done" era of college bball affects the NBA a whole lot when the most important developmental phase remains the 19-23 year old age window.

The only thing different about drafting HS guys is that it carried a slightly higher boom/bust potential. For every Kobe and T-Mac there were about a million Travis Outlaws and Darius Miles.

Post #29 » by **paulpressey25** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 6:40 pm

If I am taking his data correctly, we've got 38 guys over a 20-year period who made more than one All-NBA team.

11 of those 38 were taken outside the top five. Four of those 11 were high-schoolers.

Of the seven remaining non-top five/non-high school guys:
Two were top-ten guys - Dirk and Pierce
Two second-rounders - Arenas and Manu
One undrafted - Ben Wallace
Two mid-first round guys - Nash and Parker

If you assume that Kobe, Amare, McGrady would have been top five had they gone to college at least a year (I left out JO as he was a late bloomer), we are left with 30 of 38 "move the needle" stars effectively going in the top five in the last 20-years under current CBA conditions requiring one year of college.

JimmyTheKid · Post #30 » by **JimmyTheKid** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 6:46 pm

emunney wrote:

No shock here, obviously, but how funny would it be if this chart was responsible for waking up Kohl?

Post #31 » by **paulpressey25** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 6:47 pm

We only have two non-high school guys in the 6-10 draft range that met the All-NBA team criteria. Pierce and Dirk.

Meanwhile 27 guys in the top five made the criteria (30 if you count Kobe/McGrady/Amare as outliers). But even if you put McGrady and Amare in the 6-10 range, you've got 27 of these guys going top five versus only 4 of them going in picks 6-10.

To correlate with Emunney's stuff on the all-stars, picks 6-10 are better than anywhere else in the draft but that slot is still miles and miles away from where the top five guys end up performing. So the implications are that the Bucks getting a 6-10 pick this year is nice, but likely won't do much compared to being in that top five. Can one of you guys do the statistical greater probability of getting a 2x All NBA team player in the top five versus 6-10 and then versus everything outside top 5?

How can we put this in easy graphs/charts to present on a website?

Baddy Chuck · Post #32 » by **Baddy Chuck** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 6:50 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:I don't think the "one and done" era of college bball affects the NBA a whole lot when the most important developmental phase remains the 19-23 year old age window.

I think it impacts the late lottery teams huge. Sure you would get the busts, but it isn't very often a player like say a Josh Smith is going to drop to 15+ or a guys like Andrew Bynum and Amare Stoudemire are going to be available at 10+ with the current system in place. I wholeheartedly disagree that most of these players wouldn't have shot up draft boards with at least a year in college.

Ron Swanson · Post #33 » by **Ron Swanson** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 7:04 pm

Baddy Chuck wrote:
Ron Swanson wrote:I don't think the "one and done" era of college bball affects the NBA a whole lot when the most important developmental phase remains the 19-23 year old age window.

I think it impacts the late lottery teams huge. Sure you would get the busts, but it isn't very often a player like say a Josh Smith is going to drop to 15+ or a guys like Andrew Bynum and Amare Stoudemire are going to be available at 10+ with the current system in place. I wholeheartedly disagree that most of these players wouldn't have shot up draft boards with at least a year in college.

Good point. I guess it's really more a riskier proposition for the top 5 teams than it is for teams drafting in the middle round. It would be interesting to think how some of the HS "busts" like Sebastian Telfair and Kwame Brown would have fared with at least a year of college experience. The "preps-to-pros" era may have destroyed a lot of otherwise promising basketball careers as a result.

Baddy Chuck · Post #34 » by **Baddy Chuck** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 7:29 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:Good point. I guess it's really more a riskier proposition for the top 5 teams than it is for teams drafting in the middle round. It would be interesting to think how some of the HS "busts" like Sebastian Telfair and Kwame Brown would have fared with at least a year of college experience. The "preps-to-pros" era may have destroyed a lot of otherwise promising basketball careers as a result.

It'd be interesting to see the statistics of the prep to pro era, just thinking off the top of my head a ton of them had pretty solid careers and have made a ridiculous amount of money. It may have ruined a couple careers, but I think it hurt a small number of teams more then the players, there were some truly awful basketball players that have made millions of dollars to do basically nothing besides have potential. I think the 1 year out of high school rule is atrocious honestly. Maybe I'm just using revisionist history, but for every Robert Swift there seems to be a handful of guys who have made a pretty solid career in the NBA. Now with the way the whole AAU era is heading with the blowing of smoke into these kids as young as like 13 maybe there would be a lot more Robert Swift's, but I'd honestly rather go back to the old way.

Nebula1 · Post #35 » by **Nebula1** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 7:41 pm

So the Bucks are going to have to draft high in order to get a star player? Somebody should let the FO know.

engelmartin · Post #36 » by **engelmartin** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 7:53 pm

Here's the list, I was going to put it into a spreadsheet but don't have the time right now. I'll do spoilers so it's not fifty pages long. The first number is the number of all-star appearances:

Spoiler:

mattflair · Post #37 » by **mattflair** » Tue Aug 6, 2013 10:30 pm

I know this might be significantly harder, but it would be interesting to see how many years some of these All-NBA players were starters (to limit end of bench guys collecting titles while not contributing much) on Championship teams...not necessarily just when they were All-NBA either. If the goal is a title it would be interesting to see where people who not only are needle movers, but needle movers who reached the final goal by pick.

Ayt · Post #38 » by **Ayt** » Wed Aug 7, 2013 1:22 am

emunney wrote:Here's a fun fact:

The #1 overall pick has accounted for as many all-star selections over this time period as 12-60 combined.

How many All-Star selections are there for the top 5 compared to the rest of the draft? I think the difference would be gigantic.

I certainly appreciate your work. Here is a larger version of the image you posted. I thought I'd share it since it was difficult for me to read it at the size you uploaded.

emunney · Post #39 » by **emunney** » Wed Aug 7, 2013 1:33 am

Ayt wrote:
emunney wrote:Here's a fun fact:

The #1 overall pick has accounted for as many all-star selections over this time period as 12-60 combined.

How many All-Star selections are there for the top 5 compared to the rest of the draft? I think the difference would be gigantic.

Good question.

Top 5: 230
The field: 161

engelmartin · Post #40 » by **engelmartin** » Wed Aug 7, 2013 1:37 am

Guys, updated list of all-stars/where they were drafted and removed weird symbols and that sort of stuff. I will add colleges and places of birth tomorrow. Teams played for might be another interesting one.

I put it all into an excel document, alphetized (by first name) and loaded it into a doc on Google Drive. You can access it here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... sp=sharing

Anyone can edit it, so if you're reading this and want to fill in some categories if you have a minute to spare and want to work on a project, all you really have to do is Wikipedia the guy and know where to look. If anyone wants to add other categories they think are interesting, we can put all of this into SPSS at some point or something. The more info the better. And who don't love projects?