Poll/Discussion: Would you trade Middleton for the Nets Pick?

[coolhandluke121]

I can't believe it either, but in a different way. It amazing that close to 90% were against it with Parker, but with Khris it's on track to be approved. I guess it says a lot about what the average fan thinks of Jabari vs. Khris.

Khris is also going to be 26 next season coming off of a significant injury, whereas Jabari was 21 at the time and he seems to have maintained his explosiveness after that first ACL tear. It's not necessarily a complete player-to-player comparison.

No, but you can't argue that comparing their value isn't a huge part of the decision. Also, Jabari was about to start making almost twice as much as Khris, and wasn't an obvious perfect fit the way Khris is. Most importantly, it just seemed so many people were against taking a risk on an unknown commodity instead of a "proven" player like Jabari, but Khris is far more proven as a valuable member of the core. So in that sense, I expected a lot of the same negative reactions to a pick that could end up being a bust and a lot of irrational, risk-averse analysis of the expected value of that pick compared to Khris.

[paulpressey25]

****, this is a hard question.

That's why I did the thread. You could hear Sparky sort of curse the question when he heard it. i.e. he didn't want to have to make a decision.

[Perishable517]

Tough call, but I voted No.

Reason, our window is truly starting to open now, I believe. I like what Midds brings to the table. Shooting, defense, and playmaking. He is an excellent player and fits in with where the league is going. He isn't old by any means and right now I go with what I know versus what may be.

And I agree with others...Boston doesn't do this, at all.

[coolhandluke121]

Tough call, but I voted No.

Reason, our window is truly starting to open now, I believe. I like what Midds brings to the table. Shooting, defense, and playmaking. He is an excellent player and fits in with where the league is going. He isn't old by any means and right now I go with what I know versus what may be.

And I agree with others...Boston doesn't do this, at all.

Hm. I really disagree on 2 counts.

#1, we need some serious retooling on the fly moves in order for our window to open at all in the next few years. We're talking about a ridiculously high success rate on clearing bad contracts and finding under-the-radar guys here if our window is going to open at all. This roster is deeply, deeply flawed, and we need a lot of luck and genius gm'ing to make a big jump in the next few years.

#2, Boston is the team that has an open window, not us. If anyone should value Khris as much as the pick, it's them - not us. I think there's an outside chance this could work with a little sweetener.

[3Diamantidis]

No.
Giannis needs help. These first 4 months of the season have clearly showed how much middleton was missed.
In my mind Giannis as A and Middleton as B, is the way to go.
With middleton i know what i have on my hands. I won't have to wait again and see if the pick fits.
No matter how good some of the youngsters in the draft seem to be, we'll have to remember that they will need at least 2-3 seasons before they can put it together.
I don't have the patience anymore. The Jabari injury was heartbreaking but it must not affect the bucks planning going forward.
Middleton was a part of that planning and he is more essential now. Plus, i have a feeling that he gels with Giannis more than Jabari did.

[LuessiT]

Without a doubt, but Boston wouldn't. If you can pair Giannis with Fultz, you do it.

I mean even if the Nets stay #1 seed, that's just a 25% chance of getting the first pick. I'd probably do it, but it's not as clear cut as a Middleton for Fultz swap.

[ampd]

I can't believe it either, but in a different way. It amazing that close to 90% were against it with Parker, but with Khris it's on track to be approved. I guess it says a lot about what the average fan thinks of Jabari vs. Khris.

Khris is also going to be 26 next season coming off of a significant injury, whereas Jabari was 21 at the time and he seems to have maintained his explosiveness after that first ACL tear. It's not necessarily a complete player-to-player comparison.

No, but you can't argue that comparing their value isn't a huge part of the decision. Also, Jabari was about to start making almost twice as much as Khris, and wasn't an obvious perfect fit the way Khris is. Most importantly, it just seemed so many people were against taking a risk on an unknown commodity instead of a "proven" player like Jabari, but Khris is far more proven as a valuable member of the core. So in that sense, I expected a lot of the same negative reactions to a pick that could end up being a bust and a lot of irrational, risk-averse analysis of the expected value of that pick compared to Khris.

Which is all.the stranger because while a healthy khris isn't going to beat jabari in a dunk contest, he's a much better player in terms of impact (and as you said fit).

[humanrefutation]

****, this is a hard question.

That's why I did the thread. You could hear Sparky sort of curse the question when he heard it. i.e. he didn't want to have to make a decision.

I guess it depends on how strongly I feel about DSJ/Monk or anyone else that would probably be there at 4, which is the worst case scenario in terms of draft lotto results in the increasingly likelihood that Brooklyn ends up with the worst record.

I know people are saying that this is a strong draft, but history has generally shown us that there's only about a 30% chance you'll get a player that's better than Middleton is at his peak.

[EastSideBucksFan]

You trade Middleton for a pick and you set the Bucks timeline back 2-3 years and run the risk he doesn't pan out.

I don't think the Bucks are built to handle a setback like that.

Trading Jabari for the Nets pick would be a very different discussion though.

[BroncoBuck]

****, this is a hard question.

That's why I did the thread. You could hear Sparky sort of curse the question when he heard it. i.e. he didn't want to have to make a decision.

I guess it depends on how strongly I feel about DSJ/Monk or anyone else that would probably be there at 4, which is the worst case scenario in terms of draft lotto results in the increasingly likelihood that Brooklyn ends up with the worst record.

I know people are saying that this is a strong draft, but history has generally shown us that there's only about a 30% chance you'll get a player that's better than Middleton is at his peak.

This draft is deep, but it isn't especially top heavy. I'd take Middleton and his growth over Futz, Ball, Fox etc. If there was an Anthony Davis or KAT I'd be all for it (obviously they wouldn't though) so the point is moot.

[pxp920]

Nope

[coolhandluke121]

I guess it depends on how strongly I feel about DSJ/Monk or anyone else that would probably be there at 4, which is the worst case scenario in terms of draft lotto results in the increasingly likelihood that Brooklyn ends up with the worst record.

I know people are saying that this is a strong draft, but history has generally shown us that there's only about a 30% chance you'll get a player that's better than Middleton is at his peak.

Why are people using this 30% number and passing it off as fact? It's a ridiculous estimate based on a recent history of unusually bad drafts. Drafts go in cycles. There's no evidence-based reason to believe drafting in the top-3 is somehow harder than it ever was. There's only a statistically insignificant recent bunch of weak drafts. People have argued that it's because players are younger or because there's more Euros, but the best period of drafting in the last 20 years was when it was full of high schoolers and international players were first starting to go much higher. In fact, there's pretty clearly a negative correlation between age and likelihood of success in the top-5 of the draft, for the simple reason that the most talented players often declare as soon as they're allowed to.

[Istanbullus]

I don't think Khris hamstring issue will ever disappear but giving up a player who will be borderline all star every few years for a lotto shot (no matter the hype) isn't what Giannis or the franchise needs. Hope Hammond picks really well again and makes a truly good off season signing for once.

[Ron Swanson]

This question becomes a lot harder now that the Nets pick is looking like a lock for that 25% chance that it's #1. But as others have said, if Boston isn't trading that pick for Butler (which indications suggest they aren't), then they likely aren't trading it for Middleton.

[humanrefutation]

I guess it depends on how strongly I feel about DSJ/Monk or anyone else that would probably be there at 4, which is the worst case scenario in terms of draft lotto results in the increasingly likelihood that Brooklyn ends up with the worst record.

I know people are saying that this is a strong draft, but history has generally shown us that there's only about a 30% chance you'll get a player that's better than Middleton is at his peak.

Why are people using this 30% number and passing it off as fact? It's a ridiculous estimate based on a recent history of unusually bad drafts. Drafts go in cycles. There's no evidence-based reason to believe drafting in the top-3 is somehow harder than it ever was. There's only a statistically insignificant recent bunch of weak drafts. People have argued that it's because players are younger or because there's more Euros, but the best period of drafting in the last 20 years was when it was full of high schoolers and international players were first starting to go much higher. In fact, there's pretty clearly a negative correlation between age and likelihood of success in the top-5 of the draft, for the simple reason that the most talented players often declare as soon as they're allowed to.

You know where I got that from? I literally went through the last ten drafts and did some math. I didn't pull it out of my ass.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

You trade Middleton for a pick and you set the Bucks timeline back 2-3 years and run the risk he doesn't pan out.

I don't think the Bucks are built to handle a setback like that.

Trading Jabari for the Nets pick would be a very different discussion though.

agree with this

[emunney]

Same answer as for Jabari. Yes if it's #1/Fultz, otherwise no.

[KidA24]

You trade Middleton for a pick and you set the Bucks timeline back 2-3 years and run the risk he doesn't pan out.

I don't think the Bucks are built to handle a setback like that.

Trading Jabari for the Nets pick would be a very different discussion though.

How far did this past off season and Jabari's latest knee injury set back the timeline? Just curious as to what you think.

I feel like we've been set back 2 years already.

[coolhandluke121]

You know where I got that from? I literally went through the last ten drafts and did some math. I didn't pull it out of my ass.

If you only included 10 drafts, it's definitely pulled straight out of your ass. That's not enough to get any kind of realistic estimate. The margin of error in a sample that small is ridiculously high.

[pxp920]

Don't think Jabari would ever become what we wanted him to become (more so fit wise) so I don't think it set us back. In fact, I now doubt that we will max him out which might result to interesting cap opportunities with more gain to be made. Regarding Middleton, his trade would, in fact, set us back because he is already a complete two way player. I've read some comments about his defense after his return, but to me he looks absolutely solid on defense and a stud on offense. If we were to somehow trade Jabari for a locked top pick I would jump all over that. That would set the franchise on fast track to success.