How good will Yi become?

[europa]

So far, the scouting reports I read about him were 100% on the mark when it comes to describing his offensive game - he's a perimeter player who isn't comfortable playing inside. Defensively, though, he's better than those reports suggested due to good lateral quickness and ability. He can use his length defensively as well and I believe in time he should be at least an above-average defender. His rebounding is spotty at times, but again he's long and athletic and that should enable him to get 7+ rebounds a game at least.

I think he'll be better offensively than guys like Marshall and Smith but I'm not sure he'll be as tenacious defensively as Smith was. Smith's defense was damn good in his prime years (including his first season with the Bucks). I agree it wouldn't be wise for Yi to bulk up too heavily and lose his quickness. But he does need to get stronger in the upper body so he can finish more effectively at the rim.

[Dags]

Why are people so quick to want to write off/down a young player? It's like there is a competition to be the first to do it, the winner gets bragging rights if he fails.

Give the kid time, he's adjusting to a new competition, new city, new people, new country, new culture. Plus he hasn't had a chance to rest for a long time.

[smauss]

The comments here remind me of when Yao first came into the league. Everyone called him soft and a lesser version of Rik Smits, and look where he is now. If Yi continues to hit the weights and work on his post moves, he can very well become a star in this league. Rebounding will probably never be Yi's calling card, but that doesn't mean he won't be a deadly scorer. Look at all the Bogut love we have right now, everyone's saying he's blossoming into a star and they knew he would be one all along... Where was that a year ago?

I thought of that same thing as I was thinking about my post on Yi. I forgot to mention in my post that I also believe him to be a better than advertised defender and rebounder and if he can find that mean of strength and speed, he could become a very good defender and rebounder.

Overall, I'm quite pleased with his play this year. In all honesty, he should not have to have been thrown into a starting job this year, but thats a whole other thread..........

[Bernman]

Why are people so quick to want to write off/down a young player? It's like there is a competition to be the first to do it, the winner gets bragging rights if he fails.

Give the kid time, he's adjusting to a new competition, new city, new people, new country, new culture. Plus he hasn't had a chance to rest for a long time.

More have been willing to champion him off small samples, and project exponential improvements because of his mythical age, than are writing him off. I don't recall Europa's predictions around draftime, but I was never a big supporter, so I can't write him off before I ever wrote him on. I'd be hypocritical to think he'll be the next big thing just because he ended up on the Bucks, without adequate evidence to reverse my previous opinion. I hope he proves me wrong because I am a Bucks' fan more than anything.

[Simulack]

Part of me is actually glad that Yi is looking like such a prospect because its going to eventually force Harris (or his replacement) to make a decision on whether the goal is to win now or whether we need to fully begin the rebuilding process and move Redd.

Worst thing would be for this team to keep eeking out #8 seeds every other year.

[CBUCK06]

He'll be good. Not Dirk but below it. He'll be better defensively but needs to work on rebounding. Beautiful shooter away from the rim he needs to get beyond the rookie wall and get more shots in the 2nd half of the seaon to speed up his development because this team is DONE for 07-08.

[raferfenix]

Yi's athleticism alone put him in a special class of potential. Considering he already has great game skills, high bball iq, and a first rate desire to improve, I think it's far too early for anyone to cap his potential.

Personally, I don't care nearly as much about his offense as I do about his D. Fortunatley there is no reason to believe his defense won't continue to improve, especially if we get other players who care about playing it and aren't making bonehead plays all the time.

[L&H_05]

I was skeptical on this pick from the Bucks stand point.. He does have game, but I personally cannot stand 7 footers that just stand along the perimeter (PG's that can't shoot I hate even worse, but that's not here nor there)...And as a team that was already all offense and no defense, I just didn't understand it... And the marketing aspect is just not going to come if that team is not going to win... A lot of people probably outside of Milwaukee don't even realize this guy is in the league..

Everyone is fascinated with the new wave big man that can do it all.. But the only guy I like in that regard is Bosh, because he really mixes it up well, and also hits the glass and defends..Never liked Dirk's game, and never will... Most of these other 7 footers that are prone to extender their range are indeed soft, and not only will they not get on the block, but they will not mix it up on the defensive end in the paint whether it's on the glass or defending... Yi will block some shots, but he is a tad soft..

The Hornet broadcasters were ripping him and CV during the 4th quarter in this game today for just that... Said they were unimpressed by big men that can shoot the ball with Range and that's all they bring to the table..

[DH34Phan]

The guy is being asked to provide too much. He should be getting 15-20 minutes off the bench.

If he wasn't starting, we would consider this a very good rookie season.

He has just had a few bad games, he will be fine.

[LUKE23]

The other thing to keep in mind, and it has to be brought up here, is that Yi is easily the best player taken 6 and beyond in this draft so far. Brewer is absolute junk. and most of the other guys are not doing anything significant at all.

He's averaging 10/6 and over a block in less than 30 minutes on a guard dominated team. I think that is pretty good personally.

[europa]

-= original quote snipped =-



I don't recall Europa's predictions around draftime

I didn't really have any because I had no clue what to expect given how nobody really had seen him play. We were all going off scouting reports for the most part. He's been better initially than I thought but he's clearly a major project. Because of that, I'm leery of saying he's going to be a superstar. I think he'll be a good player and possibly a very good one. I'm just not sure he's going to be another Dirk, for example (though it is important to note he's much better as a rookie than Dirk was).

I agree with much of what L&H said. I do think your PF has to bring a "power" element of some kind to the table in most instances. Unlike L&H, I do like Dirk's game because Dirk has developed a back-to-the-basket aspect that elevated him to elite status. I still don't see the Yi comparisons to Bosh because Bosh came in with a strong post game and was a mid-range shooter. He wasn't almost entirely a perimeter shooter the way Yi is.

[paul]

I think he will be a very good player, but not a superstar. His game at this point virtually 100% revolves around jumpshooting, and even when he bulks up and gets stronger with the ball I don't see him naturally becoming a monster in the post. A slightly better version of Mehmet Okur is what I see, and what I've thought since I first saw him. 20/10 is ambitious but not necessarily beyond him. The age question is a big one - if he's 20 he still looks to have a very high ceiling, if he's 23-24 that ceiling is substantially lower. Given tidbit posted a 360 dunk of his from the 2002 season (yep 6 years ago) where he looked virtually identical in body size, I don't see him being 20 (14 in that image?).

Right now though he is horrendous, and has been for a couple of months (save for his breakout game). He should never have started, and the fact that he is still starting now is an indictment on this coaching staff. I feel at this point like there absolutely has to be some 'starting' clause in his contract, because he's sucking it up. I have no doubt it killed CV's confidence as well and his game is shot to hell, despite having a good couple of weeks last month.

For those who point to Yi's numbers as being positive - it might be just me but he constantly seems to get numbers in junk time, I remember a game recently where he got 7 points in the last 1:30, seems like almost every decent loss we have he gets a couple of buckets very late when it's all done. Take them away and his 10ppg become more like 6ppg, which is probably a more accurate reflection of his contribution this season.

[Bernman]

Honest to God I didn't cherry pick these players, rather Yi has reminded me of these players when watching him the last 2-3 years or so.

Statistical comparisons of rookie seasons-

Joe Smith (20 years old): 15.3 pts on 45.8 %/8.8 rebs/1.0 asts/1.8 blks/1.0 stls/1.7 TO's in 34.4 minutes

Donyell Marshall (21 years old): 12.6 pts on 39.4 %/5.6 rebs/1.5 asts/1.2 blks/.6 stls/1.8 TO's in 29 minutes

Drew Gooden (21 years old): 12.5 pts on 45.7%/6.5 rebs/1.1 asts/.5 blks/.8 stls/2.1 TO's in 26.8 minutes

Yi Jianlian (23 years old): 10.2 pts on 44.2 %/5.9 rebs/1 asts/1.1 blks/.8 stls/1.5 TO's in 27.9 minutes

I know our original poster appreciates that frame of reference

Note: Both Marshall and Gooden were traded their rookie seasons.

[Simulack]

The age question is a big one - if he's 20 he still looks to have a very high ceiling, if he's 23-24 that ceiling is substantially lower. Given tidbit posted a 360 dunk of his from the 2002 season (yep 6 years ago) where he looked virtually identical in body size, I don't see him being 20 (14 in that image?).

I know I'm repeating myself but I couldn't agree more. I've always thought it was crazy so many said the age question was a non-issue and quoted some Draft Express article that said it didn't effect his status as a prospect.

That's clearly not the case. If you he is 20, you are comparing his 10/6 to other guys in his class like Sean Williams, Brandon Wright, Hawes etc. If he is 23/24, you are comparing him physically and skill-wise to guys like Aldridge, Jefferson and Bosh.

I know there are some auxiliary considerations (different culture, being "raw" even for a 23 year old etc) but its a major issue that unfortunately will never be resolved.

Personally its a big reason I haven't even bothered to hazard a guess about where he will end up: it matters too much how old he is.

[NOODLESTYLE]

I think he's going to be a deserving All-star, but that's dependent on if he develops a post game. He has the quickness and stroke to punish guys in the post if he really worked on his game. I think right now we all expected Yi to struggle, especially since he's a International player.

The one thing I do like is that he has a teammate in Bogut, who seems to know how to play ball and is alot more athletic than I expected. The one thing I expect is that the Bucks eventually will start utilizing Bogut/Yi in the post more as those 2 guys are key to the Bucks success, IMO. If you have two bigs on your team who have the skills that Bogut and Yi both possess, eventually your going to have to find ways to use that advantage.

If Yi doesn't pan out, at worst I could see maybe just a player to put in 10-15 minutes off the bench since Yi's jumper is still very valuable for many teams in the league. Even if Yi struggles throughout his years in Milwaukee, maybe even a change of environment might also boost his confidence.

There's just a lot of pressure on Yi right now. I couldn't imagine how he feels knowing like a tons of fans in one country are looking for you to succeed, a entire race of people looking for you to succeed, and then there's also the many who are ready to break you down at any moment.

As long as Yi stays persistent in working hard to improve, I have no doubt Yi will be one of the players mentioned as the future of the NBA.

[Simulack]

There's just a lot of pressure on Yi right now. I couldn't imagine how he feels knowing like a tons of fans in one country are looking for you to succeed, a entire race of people looking for you to succeed, and then there's also the many who are ready to break you down at any moment.

Good point. I think the Bucks are trying to minimize the pressure on Yi by simplifying his role in the offense and not asking too much of him.

Many here advocate blowing up the team and centering things NOW around Yi (along with Bogut) like that is automatically the best thing for this development. There is a very real possibility that that sort of pressure/increased role could disastrously shatter his confidence if he isn't ready.

After a few of his big games earlier, I advocated centering the team around him more but that was clearly very premature. Best thing right now might be to keep things as simple as possible for him and keep him in situations where he has a chance at succeeding rather than expecting too much.

[NOODLESTYLE]

-= original quote snipped =-

Many here advocate blowing up the team and centering things NOW around Yi (along with Bogut) like that is automatically the best thing for this development. There is a very real possibility that that sort of pressure/increased role could disastrously shatter his confidence if he isn't ready.

After a few of his big games earlier, I advocated centering the team around him more but that was clearly very premature. Best thing right now might be to keep things as simple as possible for him and keep him in situations where he has a chance at succeeding rather than expecting too much.

I don't see it as a big deal for fans wanting to blow the team around Yi, but the thing is they have to understand even if it did revolve around Yi...they are going to have to wait. Even if Yi put up superstar numbers his rookie season, ala Lebron James, that doesn't mean automatic wins for the Bucks. I'm actually quite surprised the Bucks don't go more often to Bogut, he has really surprised me in a lot of the games. If Bogut can develop some more post moves, I could see him as a big time player.

The main thing with Yi is, he also has a big man whose willing to pass, so he's going to eventually have to develop that confidence in order to attack the basket. He has the athleticism in order to accomplish this, but I do think as of right now...it might be a little too much for him. At this point, I kind of want to see CV start so it there's less pressure for Yi.

Honestly though, if the Bucks continue to go lottery...I don't really see the Bucks building the team around just Yi, it would be more like a young squad with tons of talent and potential like the Clippers of the past. I'm aware that Bucks fans have had quite a few mediocre seasons, but if the Bucks are able to pick up a few more talented players in the draft...say like Derrick Rose...it could set up a better future, as well as take pressure off of Yi.

[FoDrizzle]

I think Yi's hit a mental slump for the past couple of months after the hot start the Bucks had. He came out the first few weeks of the season and played well to surprise a lot of people. I feel that it was that new season new career excitement and anticipation that really gave him the drive to put up those performances he had early on, but as time went on and as the team has sunk to the low of the low, his confidence and determination has hit bottom just like the rest of the team's has. Besides that, during the games the guards dominate the offence so he doesn't really get to try anything other than the usual screen-setting and pick-and-pop, and on defence the same selfish guards don't nearly work as hard as they should. I think this kind of attitude from some of his teammates has gotten to him and left a shadow on his own confidence and desire to fight and to win. Yi is a player with a positive mentality and he always looks to play hard, and that was evident early on in the season when the Bucks had some landslide defeats and Yi was still playing as hard as anyone could, and also from Yi's willingness to follow up his teammates' shots and his constant willingness to play D, despite rarely getting rewarded on offence. But I believe all this have faded slightly lately because of the effect of the losing and the team's losing attitude. Yi's form this season has followed the Bucks' general morale, and is currently at the bottom of the barrel.

I have no doubt that he will become a decent 18/8 guy at least for much of his career, and who knows, possibly a borderline deserving All-Star. But right now, the Bucks' season is over and I believe this losing mentality has gotten the best of Yi. I think the best solution for Yi and for the Bucks in general is for the board to decide on what they want and hopefully that is to do some revamping for next season starting with trading Redd along with a bad contract for some banger role players and look to pick up a gem in this upcoming draft to accompany a leader-ish player in MoWill and the improved duo of Yi and Bogut.

[LUKE23]

Hey guys...

He's Mike Dunleavy Jr. in his GS days.

Great natural talents, good bball IQ, but not strong enough (mentally or physically) to really capitalize on them. If you are waiting for him to get much better with experience and age, then expect to be disappointed. Toughness is a birthright.

He's a borderline rotation player on a mediocre team for the rest of his career.

You just really aren't that bright.

[Licensed to Il]

Yi is often the tallest guy out on the court, he certainly was Saturday night against GS... taller than Biedrins, Bogut, and OBryant. But he also runs like a forward and shoots like a guard. The kid also can block shots, and he has a very high basketball IQ.

How people can call him a marginal rotation player or a bench guy astounds me. Yao, Bogut, and several other NBA bigs have raved about his potential and ability.

The kid is holding his own in the NBA in his rookie year. Give him time, and give him room to grow. The kid is special... and may have saved pro basketball in Milwaukee by the increased exposure and interest he has brought Kohl's floundering franchise.