ATL - Wemby dominates, Billups arrested in gambling probe

[Plossum]

Except the NBA CBA specifically allows for circumstantial evidence to be enough to prove salary cap circumvent. Smoking gun isn’t necessary.

Not sure why everyone thinks they need Joe Smith level signed agreement to see this was salary cap circumvention.

I know but it’s not as simple as Silver making a determination on the evidence put before him. There’s a lot of potential arbitration they would need to go through before it even gets to Silver making a determination (Lowe’s podcast has some useful tidbits on the process).

I get the feeling this will be drawn out and messy, whichever way it goes.

You’re missing the point. The point wasn’t Silver should make a ruling about this today. The point is that anyone saying “I need to see a smoking gun” is dumb.

You’re being way too naive. If we’re talking about potentially making someone like Ballmer sell his franchise or some other massive fine, you can bet your backside they’re gonna want some pretty strong evidence to do so. Silver can’t go hard based on the evidence currently in the public sphere. No matter how fishy it seems.

[ReasonablySober]

I know but it’s not as simple as Silver making a determination on the evidence put before him. There’s a lot of potential arbitration they would need to go through before it even gets to Silver making a determination (Lowe’s podcast has some useful tidbits on the process).

I get the feeling this will be drawn out and messy, whichever way it goes.

You’re missing the point. The point wasn’t Silver should make a ruling about this today. The point is that anyone saying “I need to see a smoking gun” is dumb.

You’re being way too naive. If we’re talking about potentially making someone like Ballmer sell his franchise or some other massive fine, you can bet your backside they’re gonna want some pretty strong evidence to do so. Silver can’t go hard based on the evidence currently in the public sphere. No matter how fishy it seems.

What you're saying is the level of proof you need is "I did the crime." signed by Steve Ballmer.

If that's the case all you're doing is opening the door for every other franchise to do the same.

[skbucks1985]

I've gone back and forth a few times on what I think will happen and where I am now and where I think I'll be until proven otherwise is that what happens depends how much the other owners want something to happen. Cuban is willing to be the public meat shield for Ballmer and the owners, but the fact that we haven't gotten a bunch of writers getting fed quotes about how their teams do things "the right way" tells me that like Cuban most of the other owners are team-Ballmer. And as Cuban acknowledged in his interview with Pablo they should all be hoping for the hammer to come down on Ballmer because that would benefit their team but if it's the case that they don't its almost definitely because they don't want to see this have a snowball effect that they get caught in.

A theory I've seen and one that Pablo has said that he is open to is that the reason this was an explicitly no-show job is because Kawhi didn't know about it. That uncle Dennis cut this deal with Aspiration and Ballmer unbeknownst to Kawhi. That seems ridiculous but if Dennis is willing to fall on the sword on this aspect of it then I could easily imagine Kawhi getting a relative slap on the wrist, 10-15 game suspension, to avoid a potentially ugly fight with the NBPA

[ReasonablySober]

I've gone back and forth a few times on what I think will happen and where I am now and where I think I'll be until proven otherwise is that what happens depends how much the other owners want something to happen. Cuban is willing to be the public meat shield for Ballmer and the owners, but the fact that we haven't gotten a bunch of writers getting fed quotes about how their teams do things "the right way" tells me that like Cuban most of the other owners are team-Ballmer. And as Cuban acknowledged in his interview with Pablo they should all be hoping for the hammer to come down on Ballmer because that would benefit their team but if it's the case that they don't its almost definitely because they don't want to see this have a snowball effect that they get caught in.

A theory I've seen and one that Pablo has said that he is open to is that the reason this was an explicitly no-show job is because Kawhi didn't know about it. That uncle Dennis cut this deal with Aspiration and Ballmer unbeknownst to Kawhi. That seems ridiculous but if Dennis is willing to fall on the sword on this aspect of it then I could easily imagine Kawhi getting a relative slap on the wrist, 10-15 game suspension, to avoid a potentially ugly fight with the NBPA

FWIW, Lowe has consistently pushed back on this. He knows the general perception is that the other owners won't come down hard on Balmer because they're doing some of the same things, but he says in the texts and calls he's gotten the other organizations are uniformly furious.

[skbucks1985]

If that's the case then maybe there will be a hammer to really come down on Ballmer. But I think its more likely that they're telling Lowe anonymous things on background that they think he wants to hear. Because if you really have never done anything to circumvent the cap and you are earnestly furious about this, I don't know why you wouldn't put your name on it.

[raferfenix]

I think it’s more the scale of Kawhi’s cap circumvention that makes it different.

Using the Nets example as a comparison:

“A very high-ranking official with the Nets who had a lot to do with the money said basically there’s a blank check as soon as these guys got here,” explained Sullivan, author of the book “ Can’t Knock the Hustle: Inside the Season of Protest, Pandemic, and Progress with the Brooklyn Nets’ Superstars of Tomorrow”.

“Whether that’s buying a girlfriend or a girlfriend on the side a house in California for a week, whether that’s just putting up money for the boys and the homeboys and equipment for random s***, they’re totally cool with that. Just renting a house on the team dime,” Sullivan added.

The Nets’ Big 3 will make over $120 million combined during the 2021-22 season. Without counting all the extra benefits. “These guys don’t pay for a lot of personal stuff themselves,” Sullivan told a shocked Le Batard. “And so, the financial team of the Nets would kind of come every week or so, they’d be like, ‘OK, we thought we had this under control. We’ve got to redo the budgets every week.’ And they were like it was just a new thing every damn time.”

https://viaggiosport.com/nets-reportedly-pay-for-houses-for-stars-girlfriends-and-side-chicks-salary-cap-circumvention/

[ReasonablySober]

Read on Twitter

Holy ****, that's a tough one.

[emunney]

That sucks, man.

[mattg]

Houston is the beyond obvious choice for "team that fans/media are hyping as contender, but is really a 1st round caliber team with zero chance of making the conference finals even if healthy".

Prior to this injury I already felt they were overrated and Amen Thompson is my obvious choice for most overhyped young player in the NBA. People are convinced this dude is going to be a superstar because he's an athletic freak but his offense is just ass and he has zero path to ever becoming even a mediocre shooter. Feel like it's about to be a rough season for Houston where they play hard defensively, but it's just soooo difficult for them to score and they will lean too much on KD trying to create and he gets hurt with his large workload and that's sorta how his career will end, sputtering to the end.

[Ron Swanson]

Rough break for Houston and FVV. But if that scuttles their season then they were never really serious contenders to begin with. They still have a bunch of tradeable picks. Could see them being aggressive in acquiring the next available guard (Derrick White? Jrue? McCollum?).

[MKE_Hodag22]

Rough break for Houston and FVV. But if that scuttles their season then they were never really serious contenders to begin with. They still have a bunch of tradeable picks.

Maybe Russ goes back to HOU to play w/ Durant.

[raferfenix]

Was looking at Malik Monk to Rockets scenarios but they just don't have many tradeable salary slots until mid-December.

Russ-KD reunion clearly is what the NBA gods are demanding.

[Prez]

Tough blow for the Rockets. If they’re still serious about contending there’s no other option for them at this point but to sign and start Russ and give him a 35% usage rate.imo

[emunney]

Rough break for Houston and FVV. But if that scuttles their season then they were never really serious contenders to begin with. They still have a bunch of tradeable picks. Could see them being aggressive in acquiring the next available guard (Derrick White? Jrue? McCollum?).

Yeah, having acquired KD, I think they've got to make a genuine effort to replace FVV. My guess is they wait until at least December, though.

[MickeyDavis]

I've been a Rockets fan the past couple of years up to when they traded for KD.

[tedbrogen]

I know but it’s not as simple as Silver making a determination on the evidence put before him. There’s a lot of potential arbitration they would need to go through before it even gets to Silver making a determination (Lowe’s podcast has some useful tidbits on the process).

I get the feeling this will be drawn out and messy, whichever way it goes.

You’re missing the point. The point wasn’t Silver should make a ruling about this today. The point is that anyone saying “I need to see a smoking gun” is dumb.

You’re being way too naive. If we’re talking about potentially making someone like Ballmer sell his franchise or some other massive fine, you can bet your backside they’re gonna want some pretty strong evidence to do so. Silver can’t go hard based on the evidence currently in the public sphere. No matter how fishy it seems.

Please note when I naively said Silver should make a determination based on what is publicly out there.
I’ll save you time because I didn’t. You’re being obtuse as is anyone saying “we need a smoking gun.”

[tedbrogen]

I've gone back and forth a few times on what I think will happen and where I am now and where I think I'll be until proven otherwise is that what happens depends how much the other owners want something to happen. Cuban is willing to be the public meat shield for Ballmer and the owners, but the fact that we haven't gotten a bunch of writers getting fed quotes about how their teams do things "the right way" tells me that like Cuban most of the other owners are team-Ballmer. And as Cuban acknowledged in his interview with Pablo they should all be hoping for the hammer to come down on Ballmer because that would benefit their team but if it's the case that they don't its almost definitely because they don't want to see this have a snowball effect that they get caught in.

A theory I've seen and one that Pablo has said that he is open to is that the reason this was an explicitly no-show job is because Kawhi didn't know about it. That uncle Dennis cut this deal with Aspiration and Ballmer unbeknownst to Kawhi. That seems ridiculous but if Dennis is willing to fall on the sword on this aspect of it then I could easily imagine Kawhi getting a relative slap on the wrist, 10-15 game suspension, to avoid a potentially ugly fight with the NBPA

FWIW, Lowe has consistently pushed back on this. He knows the general perception is that the other owners won't come down hard on Balmer because they're doing some of the same things, but he says in the texts and calls he's gotten the other organizations are uniformly furious.

Which makes sense. If a majority of owners wanted a path to pay more money to players, they would do away with the cap and luxury tax.

Significantly more than the majority want heavy enforcement on the amount players can get paid.

[Licensed to Il]

I've gone back and forth a few times on what I think will happen and where I am now and where I think I'll be until proven otherwise is that what happens depends how much the other owners want something to happen. Cuban is willing to be the public meat shield for Ballmer and the owners, but the fact that we haven't gotten a bunch of writers getting fed quotes about how their teams do things "the right way" tells me that like Cuban most of the other owners are team-Ballmer. And as Cuban acknowledged in his interview with Pablo they should all be hoping for the hammer to come down on Ballmer because that would benefit their team but if it's the case that they don't its almost definitely because they don't want to see this have a snowball effect that they get caught in.

A theory I've seen and one that Pablo has said that he is open to is that the reason this was an explicitly no-show job is because Kawhi didn't know about it. That uncle Dennis cut this deal with Aspiration and Ballmer unbeknownst to Kawhi. That seems ridiculous but if Dennis is willing to fall on the sword on this aspect of it then I could easily imagine Kawhi getting a relative slap on the wrist, 10-15 game suspension, to avoid a potentially ugly fight with the NBPA

FWIW, Lowe has consistently pushed back on this. He knows the general perception is that the other owners won't come down hard on Balmer because they're doing some of the same things, but he says in the texts and calls he's gotten the other organizations are uniformly furious.

Which makes sense. If a majority of owners wanted a path to pay more money to players, they would do away with the cap and luxury tax.

Significantly more than the majority want heavy enforcement on the amount players can get paid.

This is why Silver has to make an example of Ballmer and the Clips. Anything short of that, and the billionaire owners just get all the players moving forward. There has to be the threat of an enforced cap, or the NBA becomes MLB.

[tedbrogen]

I don’t even think they need to hammer Ballmer with fines. The fines won’t mean anything to him anyways. Simply void Kawhi’s contract, continue to count it towards cap and tax thresholds, take their next three available firsts (non-traded/non-swapped), Kawhi loses his bird rights and is suspended for some number of games (whatever stops him from being eligible to play in the playoffs this year so no team gets to sign him with an exception and title the balance of power in the 10% chance he’s healthy enough to play).

[ReasonablySober]

I don’t even think they need to hammer Ballmer with fines. The fines won’t mean anything to him anyways. Simply void Kawhi’s contract, continue to count it towards cap and tax thresholds, take their next three available firsts (non-traded/non-swapped), Kawhi loses his bird rights and is suspended for some number of games (whatever stops him from being eligible to play in the playoffs this year so no team gets to sign him with an exception and title the balance of power in the 10% chance he’s healthy enough to play).

They're already setting the expectation that this is going to take at least the majority of the season to resolve. I don't think there's any chance the punishment comes down before next summer.